25nl - Overplayed tpgk?

Weird hand for me. Vill is tag over a moderate sample (>50hands I think). 15/6/6. Please check my thought process for me?

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Preflop I think is standard. I put him on a low pp, some weird broadway crap (QT? I think two broadways might raise), weak ace/suited ace. tbh I expected him to raise the button or fold it.

Flop: I think a bet takes this down most of the time, my image is still pretty solid. So I lead.

Turn: By now I think he's on a weak pair, most likely some kind of draw or combination of both. J is a great card so I fire again. I don't think it's very likely that he is slowplaying a set because 66/77/88 raises the button. 66 is really all there is. A slowplayed 2p is also very possible but his stats lower the possibility of him limping low cards like this. All I should be afraid of is 87s/67s.

River: I think his most likely holding here is a busted draw, weak pair. 8 with good kicker. The 6 really doesn't change much and I have little to be afraid of. I don't think he believed me on the turn.

imo this shove is somewhat marginal, but I think I miss value against a passively played A8/weaker that will prob check it down.

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15/6/6 is a nit not a TAG
As played I check-call river, not that it would have made any difference, but you would have extracted value vs missed draws that bluffed

you're valuetowning yourself , Just think which hands are your value targets
he's overcalling so there's a big chance he holds some kind of SC like 45-89,J9s etc.
I dont like your flop bet ..this board is way too connected and hits their range well
FD will continue , weird pair + draw will continue, pocket 5s and 9s will continue ,
if you dont spike on turn you're basically done with the hand but you hit and
you have to protect now...

river shove is bad too, because nobody is calling you with weaker and when he calls turn it becomes pretty scary, but if he had 2pairs,set he will almost always raised turn given his high AF and because alot of rivers could ruin his hand
so you can eliminate those from his range
check river for sure, he will check behind with most of the hands you beat,call him down only when you are confident in your read that he's holding busted FD like Axh

Betting this flop 3way is leak imo

yes it indeed is a leak vs tags as chromax said ur valuetowning urself like that i d bet out flop as u did then c/c turn prolly and at river prolly c/f or smtng

this spot is pretty fucked up u r oop vs a guy that limped from CO i d prolly just fold it preflop he wont lay his hand preflop most of the time and playing KJs oop is a situation u dont wanna get in

How do you bet this flop with 3 way action?? definetly check flop

yeah it's an ugly board to bet on. lot's of cards have hit that.

anyway i don't mind turn play, but river feels like a check call. let draws that miss bet, unless you think he calls you down v. light here (like A8)

On July 02 2008 04:46 ck20 wrote: Betting this flop 3way is leak imo

exactly my thoughts, in a 3-way limp/called pot (or HU limp/called) this flop just nails there range and leading out is a pretty big EV- play I would say

thanks. In general I think cbetting the wrong flops/going too far with hands oop is my biggest leak.

anyway, checking the flop sounds good. Don't know what I was thinking last night....2-tone coordinated middle cards. End of a session, what can I say. T_T
I'm guessing when I said "I think the cbet takes the pot down a lot", it was more wishful thinking bullshit, hoping it missed them too after I showed strength pf.

lead turn strong to price draws. c/c missed bluffs.
blocker if the draws come in(?).

1. check flop
2. cc river, let him bluff missed draws

Check the flop