200NL - AQ bluff on Turn

How was my play vs this player, hes not the greatest but he thinks a little more than your average player. PLays around 18/15/4. Anywho, he never slowplays anything ever, when he hits he bets unless he flops a boat on the flop. He doesn't bet the flop so he doesn't have a Kx or 10Q, I bet out the turn because i think he didn't hit the flop, and he flats, so that eliminates 22, 66, KK, JJ. Then he leads the river after i check, so i check raise a good big amount since i'm reppresenting a really strong hand, either Q10, a set or the flush that just hit. He needs to fold a huge part of his range here. How was my play in your opinion?

Submitted by : mrpav.com

PokerStars Game #18044503968: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2008/06/10 - 12:43:36 (ET)
Table 'Venetia IV' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Mckittrick19 ($217.40 in chips)
Seat 2: winchamp ($272.60 in chips)
Seat 3: ==PAV== ($197 in chips)
Seat 5: Sweet.kr ($292.65 in chips)
Seat 6: schickli ($252.85 in chips)
winchamp: posts small blind $1
==PAV== : posts big blind $2
Biosludge: sits out

Holecards
Dealt to ==PAV==
Sweet.kr: raises $6 to $8
schickli: folds
Mckittrick19: folds
winchamp: folds
==PAV== : calls $6

Flop (Pot : $17.00)

   
==PAV== : checks
Sweet.kr: checks

Turn (Pot : $17.00)

   
==PAV== : bets $12
Sweet.kr: calls $12

River (Pot : $41.00)

   
==PAV== : checks
Sweet.kr: bets $32
==PAV== : raises $73 to $105

what do you think he is repping here?

On June 11 2008 11:25 Yugless wrote: what do you think he is repping here?

Either a bluff, Jx, QQ, 1010, 88, 65, 67, or a flush a small % of the time. What ever he checked on the flop, he can't call a check raise to that river card.

it's a pretty strong bet and it looks an awful lot like a flush to me given everything that you said

On June 11 2008 11:45 Yugless wrote: it's a pretty strong bet and it looks an awful lot like a flush to me given everything that you said

His or my bet?

haha, well both, but i dont expect him to be folding flushes here

His line looks like he is never bluffing on the river, I mean if he had pure air he would make a move on the flop, if he had a draw everything hit. The weakest thing he has is 99 imo and I am unsure if he can fold that.

i like.

but I would bomb the turn 16$ to make this credible

pav i dont think hes ever value betting worse than Jx on the river, and I dont think hed float the turn with air to bluff the river. every draw hit so hes even less likely to VB thin, which means when he does bet hes got the goods quite often, and hes not folding a flush very often.

what portion of his range do u think he bets if u check the turn to him? is he taking free cards with air vs u?

On June 11 2008 15:25 Fraser wrote: pav i dont think hes ever value betting worse than Jx on the river, and I dont think hed float the turn with air to bluff the river. every draw hit so hes even less likely to VB thin, which means when he does bet hes got the goods quite often, and hes not folding a flush very often. what portion of his range do u think he bets if u check the turn to him? is he taking free cards with air vs u?

Well he did fold actually on the river, so i was right, so thats why i though QQ possibly.

u need to show them the goods here more often than not cuz ppl dont fold to this kind of bet often
his hand looks like either Jx, 99 or a flush imo

i dont think he bets TT/88 here and tbh i think your line is moderately bad without a clear dynamic vs sweet to make it obv he's gonna be betting this river often or something