setmining from blinds

simple question: how profitable is it to coldcall 4xbbs pf in SB/BB with 22-TT and play for set value, meaning you check fold most flops on miss?

if you say its not profitable this way, what other way do you employ most often? for example fold pf up to 88?

depending on the flop texture and villian u can donklead or check/raise some flops
and also 2 barrel on some boards vs some players
so u dont have to call preflop and check/fold every flop which would be - ev imo

yeah do it vs UTG/EP raisers that are tight, otherwise ur going to have to win the pot w/o showdown some of the time to make a profit

22-TT is pretty wide...like 22-66 against the right opponents you can profitably call and as ppad said, win some pots with the donkleads and c/r flops. Imo against many aggro opponents who cbet a ton, etc, I think it's proftiable to c/f most flops on miss.

I think like, 77-TT+ on the right flops you can even add calldown to the other 2.

Just to elaborate on what lachtan said, when you are set mining you have to consider how often an opponent has a hand that will pay you off when you make your set. For example, an aggressive player is going to be raising quite a bit from LP, so when you flop a set vs his 97s, you are almost never going to get him to put much money in the pot, unless it's a board where his hand rapes yours. On the other hand, a tight player raising from UTG is much more likely to have the sort of hand that will pay you off because it's strong enough.

As people's range get wider, you have to either start folding small PPs in blinds or have to be willing to try and take it away on the flop or 3bet PF.

Also it depends on the stakes you are playing.

depends on player
its a fold against most players tho

reasonably profitable with 100bb in play. here's the math:

11.5% of the time you flop a set
when you have that set, you only get your stack in the middle about 60% at absolute maximum
when you do get your money in, you're about 88% on average to win (usually they have 2 outs, sometimes more)
so you are flopping a set and winning an entire stack 11.5% * 60% * 88% = 6.072% of the time, at most, for a ~99bb profit
when you lose a stack with your set, you have a ~99bb loss, and it occurs 11.5% * 60% * 12% = 0.828% overall.
the other 40% when you flop a set but don't get your stack in the middle (4.6% overall), you profit about 17bb on average.
and 88.5% of the time overall, you lose 3bb (assuming you're in the big blind). so the EV is...

EV(bb) = 6.072% (99) + 4.6% (17) - 0.828% (99) - 88.5% * (3) = 6.01128 + 0.782 - 0.81972 - 2.655 = 3.31856bb (+EV)

here are the re-calculations if you're in the SB and outside the blinds:

EV(sb) = EV(bb) + 2.655 - 88.5% (3.5) = 2.87606bb (+EV)
EV(not blinds) = EV(bb) + 2.655 - 88.5% (4) = 3.43356bb (+EV)

if you only get your stack in about 30-35% of the time when hitting the set (which is still kinda high in most games, particularly 6max), then you're roughly breaking even

does that mean i should fold small pocketpairs that i used to call so far against all lag Vs and maybe play some against nits like myself but only sometimes?

if so, what is a small pocketpair, and what is a pocketpair to reraise with from SB/BB? so far i used to reraise TT+ and sometimes only JJ+

I have another set mining question. 25NL....44 utg so you raise to a 1.00. Guy to your left also with a full stack 3bets to $3 (making it an unprofitable call for set odds)....however the guy on the button (also with a full stack) flat calls. How does the math play out in a situation like this? (also i'd assume that the implied odds are huge)

On May 18 2008 11:45 [vital]Myth wrote: if you only get your stack in about 30-35% of the time when hitting the set (which is still kinda high in most games, particularly 6max), then you're roughly breaking even

I might be too pessimistic here but thinking that you will get it in even 30% of the time (having hit a set) against a loose player seems way too high. Maybe I don't know what set mining really means but if you're going to fold whenever you miss, it's like giving away money to cold call in the first place.

edit: second sentence was not a direct reply to your post

On May 18 2008 11:44 [vital]Myth wrote: reasonably profitable with 100bb in play. here's the math: 11.5% of the time you flop a set when you have that set, you only get your stack in the middle about 60% at absolute maximum

lol

i must do something wrong
60% win a full stack when flop a set ?

i dont know the numbers but half of that seems a lot more realistic

On May 18 2008 15:34 PplusAD wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2008 11:44 [vital]Myth wrote: reasonably profitable with 100bb in play. here's the math: 11.5% of the time you flop a set when you have that set, you only get your stack in the middle about 60% at absolute maximum lol i must do something wrong 60% win a full stack when flop a set ? i dont know the numbers but half of that seems a lot more realistic

maybe you're a nit and play face-up

as a general rule of thumb you genereally wanna win ~13x your investment if your setmining with PP's - are you playing full ring or 6-max?? cause 99-TT arn't really setmining hands

TT is top 3% hands of poker, not sure why you would setmine with it*

unless aaragon is opening UTG

KK can be played for set value sometimes

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 18 2008 10:45 RaSZi wrote: doomer elaborate

i dont flop sets

On May 18 2008 16:42 TalentedTom wrote: unless aaragon is opening UTG

LOL LOL LO L

@ all posts saying 60% is way too high, etc.

yes, you are right. but if you only get your stack in the middle 25% of the time when you flop a set, you should call with any 2 and play just like a set every time, and thereby win the pot at least 75% of the time (some suckout equity on top of that)

so.. -.-