nl200 aj in marginal spot

the guy is 30/10/0.6 over only 50 hands
i chech the flop for pot control because I did't want to get rr ,I know I shoud bet like 22-24 $ on the turn but I was distracted
I desided to make very litle vbet on the river and I made 1/2 pot and I was very surprised by this reraise so i desided to fold
I know that my bet sizes was very small and this smells like ''air'' or something but I don't think this guy is capable to check /shove on the river with hand that I beat and he almost dont have fold equity ,
what do you think??
Submitted by : jully

** Game ID 2008893035 starting - 2008-05-13 23:42:06
** April Fools [Hold 'em] (1.00|2.00 NL - $ Cash Game) Real Money
- Mr-T sitting in seat 1 with $264.30
- G0Gators sitting in seat 2 with $225.05
- dervish3k sitting in seat 3 with $131.50
- alex146 sitting in seat 4 with $403.93
- Hero sitting in seat 5 with $202.00 [Dealer]
- -draupner- sitting in seat 6 with $200.00
-draupner- posted the small blind - $1.00
Mr-T posted the big blind - $2.00

Holecards
   
G0Gators folded
dervish3k raised - $8.00
alex146 called - $8.00
Hero called - $8.00
-draupner- folded
Mr-T folded

Flop (Pot : $27.00)

   
dervish3k checked
alex146 checked
Hero checked

Turn (Pot : $27.00)

   
dervish3k checked
alex146 checked
Hero bet - $15.00
dervish3k called - $15.00
alex146 folded

River (Pot : $57.00)

   
dervish3k checked
Hero bet - $30.00
dervish3k went all-in - $108.50
Hero folded
dervish3k mucks:
dervish3k wins $192.50 from the main pot

considering the utg+1 raiser made this play i think it is a fold although i may talk myself into calling getting over 2 to 1 but looking at it here its hard to believe villain does not have a badly played set

Seems pretty certain that this type of opponent would never c/r bluff river, so laydown is probably good. When you bet the river, what kind of range are you expecting a call from that you beat?

His preflop raise % is quite small so I'd imagine it holding less weaker aces. Also, all the draws miss, except 45 (which he might have since his stats look a little fishy and your turn bet was "small")

I would bet more on turn. I check river as I can only see A10 really giving us value here.

def bet turn and river... KK - TT will call a decent amount of the time if ur image is good. villain seems like the type to slowplay a set here, so fold river is good.

don't like the river bet neither. There are like zero hands worse than yours that will call you.

after checking flop i definitely prefer a river bet. if he is tricky enough i also call the river c/r, because our line is completely not believable as anything strong enough to bet 2 streets for value after checking flop.

On May 16 2008 16:43 n0rthf4ce wrote: after checking flop i definitely prefer a river bet. if he is tricky enough i also call the river c/r, because our line is completely not believable as anything strong enough to bet 2 streets for value after checking flop.

i agree, but i'd like to note that almost 0% of 1/2 players are tricky enough to c/sh bluff this river, so i REALLY prefer bet/fold on river almost 100% of the time