Any value in this?

I have no idea who you are berating with that post Ryan lol.

kathy daut for burning my toast

but seriously heres the REAL issue:


1. if he has JT enough its bad to raise. i think some of you are underestimating how often he is showing up with JT and that we too show up with it sometimes, but very infrequently

2. the logic being used by some doesnt make any sense. The following 3 things do not coexist:
a. we never have JT
b. raising a ten on the river is a bad idea
c. hes never calling with worse
The reason they cant coexist is because if we never have JT and raising a ten on the river is a bad idea then he should suspect us to be bluffing a decent % of the time when we raise the river.

3. if the % of the time he has JT is sufficiently low enough we will get enough calls by worse hands to justify our raise with a hand a lot of you dont think we should be raising. That is if he does indeed NEVER have JT this is an auto raise.

however look at my #1, i think he has it, its your job to decide how often in the moment. i wont begin to guess %'s of his range because i havent played with skier in a while and i dont know the flow between you two, thats your job. this is really a question nobody can answer except you and him.

and i probably shouldnt be giving this away but i think never checking JT in your spot on the turn is a mistake and you should add it to your repertoire to better balance your ranges of both hands before the river action and hands you are raising the river with.

my whole point is that our logic doesn't have to be sound.

"2. the logic being used by some doesnt make any sense. The following 3 things do not coexist:
a. we never have JT
b. raising a ten on the river is a bad idea
c. hes never calling with worse
The reason they cant coexist is because if we never have JT and raising a ten on the river is a bad idea then he should suspect us to be bluffing a decent % of the time when we raise the river."

I seriously think you're leveling me now, or have suffered a head injury in the recent past.

-->> If C is true --> B is true; You say that if B is true, then C is false. So if C is true, then C is false. Good work, genius! <<---

Any reasons for Skier to call us with worse/fold split on river are based on pure speculation and worthless leveling, not having anything to do with correct strategy. And I don't see any metagame reason to actually push there too. Actually I'd like to see his hand if he was bluffing, mine would be face up if I push anyway.

"There are huge advantages to this move though. The first thing he will do is underestimate our abilities in logic and therefore at poker in general." VERY TRUE

muffins, anyone? fresh out of the oven!

to further clarify my post, i believe there are 3 possible outcomes to our shove.

a) he instafolds air (something like KJdd)
b) he tank/calls 10x because he doesn't believe our 1 hand range, and once he sees that we shove 10-9 he thinks we are stupid/bad/spewy and all that other good stuff.
c) he tank/folds 10x because he puts us on J10 and proceeds to give us much more credit for being tricky

then theres the option of him actually having J10 that...doesn't exist .

PS muffins are cold

On May 18 2008 00:05 n0rthf4ce wrote: to further clarify my post, i believe there are 3 possible outcomes to our shove. a) he instafolds air (something like KJdd) b) he tank/calls 10x because he doesn't believe our 1 hand range, and once he sees that we shove 10-9 he thinks we are stupid/bad/spewy and all that other good stuff. c) he tank/folds 10x because he puts us on J10 and proceeds to give us much more credit for being tricky then theres the option of him actually having J10 that...doesn't exist . PS muffins are cold

so.... that means this is a clear flat call.

On May 18 2008 00:32 JonnyCosMo wrote: Show nested quote + On May 18 2008 00:05 n0rthf4ce wrote: to further clarify my post, i believe there are 3 possible outcomes to our shove. a) he instafolds air (something like KJdd) b) he tank/calls 10x because he doesn't believe our 1 hand range, and once he sees that we shove 10-9 he thinks we are stupid/bad/spewy and all that other good stuff. c) he tank/folds 10x because he puts us on J10 and proceeds to give us much more credit for being tricky then theres the option of him actually having J10 that...doesn't exist . PS muffins are cold so.... that means this is a clear flat call.

These point that n0rth and Daut are making all add up to the end result that it becomes much more difficult to play on a hand-to-hand basis with you because you, in the eyes of a good thinking player, are capable of doing much more, hence are less predictable, hence you become a meta-nightmare and the result of that is usually moneyprinting. You're basically risking a small amount of EV by shoving into a rare j10 (and imo villain in this wont really be playing j10 like this very often) in order to reap a possible slight EV gain in this particular spot, as well as a larger EV gain later. If you don't think about balancing your range in spots like this, there of course will be no reason for a thinking player to ever look you up in marginal spots.

/rant ARE YOU GUYS ALL LEVELING ME, CAUSE I DON'T BELIEVE YOU CAN BE THIS STUPID AND WIN MONEY. /endrant

Our opponent will ALWAYS call Tx here and will NEVER call with worse. Metagame here is completely irrelevant. If you want to balance a pushing range with JT sometimes.. since you have JT like 1 in 50 to a Tx hand, balanced would be to flat Tx 47 times, push Tx 3 times and push JT. Whatever...

i am saying these CANNOT all happen
a. we never have JT
b. raising with a ten is BAD
c. hes never calling worse

do you really not see the problem saying these 3 things? if we NEVER HAVE JACK TEN, and raising with a ten is bad when we raise what does he put us on? AIRBALL. if hes putting us on airball when we raise he is calling worse.

and OBVIOUSLY ~C -> C THAT IS BECAUSE IT IS A LOGICAL FALLACY.

jesus maybe i shouldnt assume people have any understanding of logic at all. i guess i should just assume my opponents are all idiots who make mistakes. OH WAIT A MINUTE THAT MEANS HE MIGHT CALL WITH WORSE OR FOLD A TEN

LOLDOUCWUTIDIDTHERE

MINDFUCKINGTHETHREAD101.COM

sick leveling

I really hope Daut is just leveling me and hasnt suddenly turned into an idiot.

Never having JT and never pushing Tx is a part of our strategy, because its plain mathematically wrong for our opponent to call with worse and to fold a split. If you really think that our opponent will suddenly start calling us down with worse, because he "knows" were not pushing Tx you're out of your mind.

I think everyone would agree that both the chance he has JT here or calls with worse than a ten are non-zero probabilities even if they are very low. So u just have to decide if

(avg value from getting worse to call) + (avg value from bluffing off a split) + (metagame value)

is greater than (losses from losing to JT at showdown) or not.

It seems like people are trying to make absolute arguments instead of just guessing where the numbers lie.

On May 18 2008 17:33 NMcNasty wrote: I think everyone would agree that both the chance he has JT here or calls with worse than a ten are non-zero probabilities even if they are very low. So u just have to decide if (avg value from getting worse to call) + (avg value from bluffing off a split) + (metagame value) is greater than (losses from losing to JT at showdown) or not. It seems like people are trying to make absolute arguments instead of just guessing where the numbers lie.

Really good post McNasty. Pretty interesting spot as well to post, fun hand =D.

this thread DELIVERS