Any value in this?

Submitted by : ToT)MidiaN(

FullTiltPoker Game #6370738071: Table Oakmont (6 max) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 7:18:05 ET - 2008/05/11
Seat 1: Vaga_Lion ($4,439.50)
Seat 2: ToTMidiaN ($3,241)
Seat 3: ginolwd168 ($739)
Seat 4: Sarah_29 ($400)
Seat 5: ibluff69111 ($3,997.70)
Seat 6: skier_5 ($2,442)
skier_5 posts the small blind of $10
Vaga_Lion posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #5

Holecards
Dealt to ToTMidiaN
ToTMidiaN raises to $70
ginolwd168 calls $70
Sarah_29 folds
ibluff69111 folds
skier_5 calls $60
Vaga_Lion folds

Flop (Pot : $230.00)

   
skier_5 has 15 seconds left to act
skier_5 bets $202
ToTMidiaN has 15 seconds left to act
ToTMidiaN calls $202
ginolwd168 folds

Turn (Pot : $634.00)

   
skier_5 checks
ToTMidiaN has 15 seconds left to act
ToTMidiaN checks

River (Pot : $634.00)

   
skier_5 has 15 seconds left to act
skier_5 bets $555
ToTMidiaN has 15 seconds left to act
ToTMidiaN raises to $2,969, and is all in
skier_5 has 15 seconds left to act
skier_5: wth
skier_5 has requested TIME

My image at this point is probably pretty standard and straight forward. Haven't done anything of note really, playing about 33/25/3 or so but pretty passive and straightforward post flop.

There's probably more value in making it $1,500. A shove like that makes it much more likely you have a lock hand imo as you're not trying to "save" any $ when your bluff gets called.

Hm yea I never even considered a smaller raise. Might be good, but 1500 is not much less than his stack, which is about ~2.1k before any river action

In that case I'd usually minraise.

while i dont really believe that 2 way bets exist, there is an interesting phenomena where he will fold out a hand you chop with a certain percentage of the time while obviously calling a lot, but will call sometimes with hands worse than yours, but certainly at a lower percentage, i would say something along the following could happen:

1. he might fold a ten 1 in 20 so sometimes you fold out the chop
2. he might call worse 1 in 5 so sometimes you get value from worse

and i wouldnt say he never has JT (he certainly shows up with it sometimes) but when combined with the 2 above it becomes profitable to raise

No value at all, just call.

What about the times where villain is gonna level himself because of missed diamond draws or possibility of AdXd hands turning their hand into a bluff?

He might even think that you'd just call with a ten here so you could only shove with JT or bluff. I would always raise here. Well played imo. Minraise looks too strong and won't get called by worse here.

I like this with the right image.

actually i like this in general nh

On May 13 2008 00:26 Twisted wrote: What about the times where villain is gonna level himself because of missed diamond draws or possibility of AdXd hands turning their hand into a bluff? He might even think that you'd just call with a ten here so you could only shove with JT or bluff. I would always raise here. Well played imo. Minraise looks too strong and won't get called by worse here.

True, it obviously confused him what with this: "skier_5: wth"
He did think for like 3 seconds and call with Td9d but he may have just done the same with a smaller straight for all i know

And why wouldn't we shove when he never has JT :|

shoving can never be bad if he never has it lol, second nuts ship it in. If anything, if he folds a set or something he doesn't get to see our hand!

We can never have JT, he can have it. Its a stupid move.

On May 11 2008 08:54 Daut wrote: 1. he might fold a ten 1 in 20 so sometimes you fold out the chop 2. he might call worse 1 in 5 so sometimes you get value from worse and i wouldnt say he never has JT (he certainly shows up with it sometimes) but when combined with the 2 above it becomes profitable to raise

perfect daut - also make sure to adjust the reraise size from all in too a non-all in based on who you face and his emotions, there is some value to be gained there, dont go braindead!

And you're all fucking morons...

First --> This guy is a pretty good player...
Second --> Guy leads into 2 people on a horrible board to bluff and checks turn on this board --> He has something v strong and its not a set. ATdd, A6dd are possible. JTdd is a very small possibility in truth, but he could decide to get tricky once in a while. TT is probably not in his range.
On river he bets --> he will definitely check 2 pair here, protecting with a check from a T sometimes.
I don't really see him bluffing river all that often (or at all for that matter), but I dont see him vbetting less than a ten as well.
And while the chance of him having JT is very low, there is at least some chance that he has it. There is like absolutely zero chance that we have it though (im pretty sure Midian will never check it behind or not raise flop for that matter)..


If there is 1% chance of him havig JT, our push is wrong, seeing as were not getting called by worse and not getting a fold from a split ever.
Actually, if theres 1/1000 chance of him having JT, our push is wrong.

What if there's 1/10 000 chance of him having JT? Is that ok then?

Prob not. It does lose like 18c a hand to a call!

I think the times he calls with a set or a 5 or something is higher than the times he has JT.

=[

against a different opponent i'd shove but vs this nit it's better to flat call

he's not betting out that river with a five or a set, lol

100% with rhaegar

Even if he is firing with a 5 or a T, hes never calling without a T and never folding a T. Sure, if it was some random idiot and especially if there was little left, shove.. Otherwise its pointless.