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Kapol   Poland. May 09 2008 01:40. Posts 2818 | | | |
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I bet turn and I consider my hand the 3rd nuts behind JsQs and 88. If he has 88 he's really bad and he shouldn't play JQ like this either so I'd put him on something stupid and shove. |
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Oly   United Kingdom. May 09 2008 02:33. Posts 841 | | |
The only nonbluff hand you possibly beat is Axs, and that would be an unusual play here from a solid regular. I think he has JQss a lot here, even though that may seem rather specific, and sometimes 88. You beat KT, but I'd want some evidence that he can badly overvalue hands first, and you can be splitting sometimes. I think this is a tight fold because there is absolutely no reason to think he is making a very strange bluff here, and you only beat a bluff since there are few semibluffs he can now have and it seems hard for him to be valuebetting worse.
Definitely bet turn though - you can't really expect this after he didn't check/raise the flop and your hand still needs lots of protection. |
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| | Last edit: 09/05/2008 02:34 |
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Twisted   Netherlands. May 09 2008 03:05. Posts 6046 | | |
Bet turn more and your decision becomes easier. Now he could think you're weak by your 25$ bet and put you to the test, but right now you have no idea what to do. If you bet 35 on turn it would be easier.
Right now I think you have to fold =[. |
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The72o   Poland. May 09 2008 04:36. Posts 4377 | | |
i would bet a little bit more on flop and on turn |
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Riekus   Netherlands. May 09 2008 06:52. Posts 43 | | |
Opponent is a good 21/18/4.6 regular.
You have answered your own question, this is a clear fold.
Good to see you on NL200 and no, i dont think he is ever raising it with a worse hand here. |
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LazyFisH   Australia. May 09 2008 07:05. Posts 101 | | |
I don't see how it's possible someone playing 21/18/4.6 and a good thinking player can flat QJs on that flop (or 88 for that matter but that's closer). He can easily have something like KT or a pair and draw on the turn so I think you should shove for value. |
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Fraser   Canada. May 09 2008 09:27. Posts 3136 | | |
meh u need more reads to make a good decision here.. what was your reasoning for betting so small on the turn?
I think u should push here.. 88 is the only hand im really scared of. AK and QJs are possibles, but theres equal amounts of other possibilities imo and u have 4 outs vs almost anything. |
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Fraser   Canada. May 09 2008 09:33. Posts 3136 | | |
i guess KK and even AA are possible too, but since u bet so small im not inclined to fold. |
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MysticJoey   Poland. May 09 2008 11:22. Posts 350 | | |
this guy always 3bet strong hands, he may have another AT here i guess, and ye he may have played 88 like that, was he like 16 tabling or smth close to that ?? he do so frequently, if yes its probably a fold cause it makes it harder for him to make a move |
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YoMeR   United States. May 09 2008 11:28. Posts 5768 | | |
i highly doubt a normal NL200 regular would value raise this turn with anything less than what we have 150bb's deep.
generally at these stakes when villain raises in these spots their ranges are extremely polarized making this a fairly ez fold. If you 2 have agressive history and previous loose action i might peel a river here as played. but yea as everyone else is saying i woulda bet bigger on flop/turn so I wouldn't be in such an awkward spot such as this. |
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ukfan81   United States. May 09 2008 11:31. Posts 104 | | |
I think he has 88 here and was just playing slow hoping no spade fell before making his move. |
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Fraser   Canada. May 09 2008 13:49. Posts 3136 | | |
88 makes sense for sure, but we fold just because theres one logical hand that beats us? |
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nolan   United States. May 09 2008 13:57. Posts 3437 | | |
| | On May 09 2008 02:26 DustySwedeDude wrote:
I bet turn and I consider my hand the 3rd nuts behind JsQs and 88. If he has 88 he's really bad and he shouldn't play JQ like this either so I'd put him on something stupid and shove. |
same thoughts here. |
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jully   Bulgaria. May 12 2008 23:54. Posts 145 | | |
bet flop and turn bigger
flop-13-15/turn 32-36 he can sense weakness with this 25 bet on the turn |
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JizzleSmitts   United States. May 13 2008 00:41. Posts 624 | | |
i think 12 on the flop is fine but I definitely think a 32-37 bet on the turn is necessary. As played; fold. |
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