We're experiencing the beginning of the end

I hate to say it but I think it is coming true. Games are getting tougher. Higher stakes players are moving down. Tables are more often than not filled 100% with long term regulars.

Something good needs to happen. Something in the next year or two. Otherwise, I think a lot of people are going to have to give plan B a good hard look. Unfortunately, I know I have.

I think I've mentally given up on the possibility of sustaining an acceptable win-rate(long term) that would be greater than a win-rate achievable in the real world.

[ ] youre correct

On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct

Wish I wasn't... I just think the good times are behind us unless something good happens (frank's bill, etc.). Every player I speak w/ often shares my feelings. It has always been a "what if," or "will it?" Now it seems to be a reality.

its probably over for americans...

I think youre overdoing it, its def. could be better but i dont think its worse than like a half year ago. I cant speak for highter stakes than nl400 tho, maybe its true you cant bulldoze nl2k+ anymore and be a millionare like ultra fast but thats not my problem yet :D

yeah, terrible topic, terrible content full of what ifs and shit that some heatered 1ptbb/100 lifetime poker player thinks about the online poker world.

seriously, don't do this.

On May 08 2008 04:28 byrnesam wrote: its probably over for americans...

Yea I guess I haven't given a hard look to the Euro-sites. There's also a possibility of a big asian boom (that would be AMAZING).

I just know that stars is getting somewhat rough. Good tables are now defined when a regular is tilting and you have position as opposed to having an idiot playing 40/30 spewing chips.

except for diamonds, nothing is forever

On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct

[ ] 10nl players are a good judge

On May 08 2008 04:31 CrownRoyal wrote: yeah, terrible topic, terrible content full of what ifs and shit that some heatered 1ptbb/100 lifetime poker player thinks about the online poker world. seriously, don't do this.

Seriously don't criticize someone like that when you play microstakes.

On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge

OH SORRYLOL

[X] HE IS CORRECT BASED ON EXPERT OPINION

end of the world. quit life.

On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge

Edit: My bad.

too much education going on -_-

ok you got me there but your topic's content sucked so bad I couldn't help it.

On May 08 2008 04:37 byrnesam wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge OH SORRYLOL [X] HE IS CORRECT BASED ON EXPERT OPINION

WTF you play microstakes too. Please don't throw stones if you live in glass houses.

On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal.

He didn't quote byrnesam for no reason lol.

On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal.

[ ] he was talking to you

On May 08 2008 04:39 CrownRoyal wrote: ok you got me there but your topic's content sucked so bad I couldn't help it.

Ya I guess its a negative topic and it isn't helping anything really. I'm just genuinely concerned about this as much of my life is built around sustainability of poker money.

On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal.

not sure if this is another if your hilarious levelling games or something but i was responding to byrnesam in my post, not u. i agree that the games now are drying up a lot and you have to be really good and disciplined to make consistent money, much more so than ever before.

On May 08 2008 04:40 Twisted wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal. He didn't quote byrnesam for no reason lol.

Eh.. my bad.. Seriously, sorry for dissings then. I got jumepd on pretty hard and was defensive.

What stakes are you playing atm? What i can see from railbirding alot is that nosebleed players seems to go down in limits, both because higher gamers arent really running that often anymore and maybe also because they realized the variance is to high up there? So yeah i can for sure see that nl2k and 5k games are ALOT thoughter maybe thats even the case for 1k nowdays, like when watching Green Plastic videos/reading his blog he says the 1k game is really thought nowdays. But i mean even nl200 pays more than a great majority of the REGULAR irl-jobs so i dunno...

On May 08 2008 04:40 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:37 byrnesam wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge OH SORRYLOL [X] HE IS CORRECT BASED ON EXPERT OPINION WTF you play microstakes too. Please don't throw stones if you live in glass houses.

well, lets consider what you say in the OP is fact

the higher stakes regs are moving down because the games are tougher
which should create a knockon effect of mid stakes players moving down
low stakes regs moving down
and thus microstakes games are tougher.

On May 08 2008 04:43 Ket wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal. not sure if this is another if your hilarious levelling games or something but i was responding to byrnesam in my post, not u. i agree that the games now are drying up a lot and you have to be really good and disciplined to make consistent money, much more so than ever before.

My bad man. I thought it was a group jumping on me and I got defensive.

Hm for low stakes this is not true

I play Nl50 and ive met 2 semi decent players so far
rest sucked ass

and beating NL100 for 4BB/100 is like 40$ / h which is definitely
good enough to compete with most normal jobs

On May 08 2008 04:44 Balzamon wrote: What stakes are you playing atm? What i can see from railbirding alot is that nosebleed players seems to go down in limits, both because higher gamers arent really running that often anymore and maybe also because they realized the variance is to high up there? So yeah i can for sure see that nl2k and 5k games are ALOT thoughter maybe thats even the case for 1k nowdays, like when watching Green Plastic videos/reading his blog he says the 1k game is really thought nowdays. But i mean even nl200 pays more than a great majority of the REGULAR irl-jobs so i dunno...

I was doing 3/6 for a while and decided to move down b/c of school / finals. I saw a lot of 5/10ers move down to 3/6. I wanted to play stress free and not worry about money. Now I see a lot of people from 3/6 moving down to 2/4 as well.

I moved down a little while ago when I was about to give 5/10 a real shot (had taken many stabs before) now I'm sitting at 2/4 not really seeing a bright future. Its very rare that my tables aren't composed entirely of people I've seen at 2/4 and 3/6 (even the occasional 5/10 player) for ages.

there are only few options (in order from what would help us most):
a) US
degens will be able to deposit one more time without problems,
even with credit card (games will never be as soft as on party few years ago, but still def. easier)
b)much bigger boom in europe.
i actually kinda doubt this one
c)there will be an asia boom
kinda hard to imagine players from china playing like 2/4+ because this is insane money for most of them+others problems like government, censorship etc.
but china is not only country there

i really hope that in like next 18 months or so at least option A will be there for us if not we are screwed ;]

I can only speak about midstakes but yeah they are getting tougher. Still, there are a ton of money to be made it just isn`t as ez as before. You gotta play better and be much more disciplined in order to sustain a nice winrate now as Ket said. Game selection becomes bigger and bigger too. One really has to be an ultimate-zone warrior

On May 08 2008 04:50 Svetoslav wrote: I can only speak about midstakes but yeah they are getting tougher. Still, there are a ton of money to be made it just isn`t as ez as before. You gotta play better and be much more disciplined in order to sustain a nice winrate now as Ket said. Game selection becomes bigger and bigger too. One really has to be an ultimate-zone warrior

I think it'll hurt the low-stakes(1/2 - 3/6) players the most I think. They'll move from the cusp of making this a real thing to microstakes.

how many times in your starcraft career did the scene die?

On May 08 2008 04:56 byrnesam wrote: how many times in your starcraft career did the scene die?

The scene never exploded. 2-3 people made money. The rest made close to nothing when I was there. Might have changed slightly since I left but I doubt it.

On May 08 2008 04:58 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:56 byrnesam wrote: how many times in your starcraft career did the scene die? The scene never exploded. 2-3 people made money. The rest made close to nothing when I was there.

dunno if you can compare scene to making money

imagine a scene with a game that revolves around money and is a hobbie for millions of people and has international exposure.

YEH UR RIGHT ITS PROBABLY GONNA DIE

A+ thread

On May 08 2008 05:01 byrnesam wrote: imagine a scene with a game that revolves around money and is a hobbie for millions of people and has international exposure. YEH UR RIGHT ITS PROBABLY GONNA DIE

Maybe we have different definitions of die. There will always be a place to play. I don't know if there will always be a good place to play and make a solid win-rate in the future.

And I also agree with OP. Denying the fact that the games have gradually gotten noticeably tougher is pretty optimistic to say the least.

Stingers march graph



of course 3 years ago these were common place...

On May 08 2008 05:05 byrnesam wrote: Stingers march graph of course 3 years ago these were common place...

Yes. You'll still have the prodigies able to win huge. I don't quite see how one persons success disproves that the atmosphere is tougher.

1.- Play Poker
2.- Be better than the opponents
3.- ......
4.- Profit ?

On May 08 2008 05:08 Baal wrote: 1.- Play Poker 2.- Be better than the opponents 3.- ...... 4.- Profit ?

Succinctly put, yes.

according to this site http://www.highstakesdb.com stinger won 400k in march, than lost 400K in april. PLO variance.

As long as a retard like me can make a nice chunk of money allmost every month I don't think we should call the games hard...

..............................................pop

sure the games are full off regs these days. Luckily, regs usually suck enough so that you still can make a decent profit.

I hope eventually US fish will be able to come back, I seriously dream of the day.

ye comeback of americans and boom in asia will be just sooooo sweet

or imagine all those sheiks from United Arab Emirates and countries like that playing lol

All that is happening is that poker is becoming more of a competition of skill for more people rather than gamble. Which of course means that it takes much more effort to make money than just learn the good starting hands and patience to wait for something good. Now you need to outthink the oposition. The better players will still be winning against the worse players.

On May 08 2008 05:46 Joe wrote: All that is happening is that poker is becoming more of a competition of skill for more people rather than gamble. Which of course means that it takes much more effort to make money than just learn the good starting hands and patience to wait for something good. Now you need to outthink the oposition. The better players will still be winning against the worse players.

Yes of course. The bar of skill will simply go up and the pool of available money will go down. Better players will always beat worse players. Some of the better players at limit X now will find themselves being one of the worse players at the limit X in the future. They'll have to go down to limit Y, then limit Z, etc.

Also when the edge gets smaller it leads more to variance and luck than skill really. For example, in a vacuum, player A would win 51% vs. player B who will win 49%. Variance will determine who will win this matchup. Player A could simply run bad then get emotionally altered as a player or have to move down.

On May 08 2008 05:03 iakim322 wrote: A+ thread

Bill Friskowned.

On May 08 2008 06:07 Tien wrote: Bill Friskowned.

That is the face he made as he screwed me in the ass

For example, in a vacuum, player A would win 51% vs. player B who will win 49%. Variance will determine who will win this matchup. Player A could simply run bad then get emotionally altered as a player or have to move down.

prop rake would win xD

On May 08 2008 04:43 Ket wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal. not sure if this is another if your hilarious levelling games or something but i was responding to byrnesam in my post, not u. i agree that the games now are drying up a lot and you have to be really good and disciplined to make consistent money, much more so than ever before.

agree, although games i play are still easily beatable but they're definitely more tough than they were T_T;

wtf are u talkin about

i just started lol

ppl were sayin that if u are a great poker player u'll make millions anyway :C so wtf u saying, that in for example 10 years most of us will be unable to play poker protifably for living?

If folk in Asia start playing we won't have to worry about the Americans coming.

They have to be the biggest degen gamblers ever.

games are tougher. or maybe i just suck bad lol

you just suck bad...

two korean fish just spewed me 470k in 3 days on some fishy site i don't think the end is very close

[x] brag

Asia is the answer my friends.

The tide is coming and my roommate / ppl i know here are the fucking moon.

Get ready.

yeah, i've noticed that there a decent amount of koreans nowadays playing. However, most of them are like 9/7 nits.

On May 08 2008 08:15 Rekrul wrote: two korean fish just spewed me 470k in 3 days on some fishy site i don't think the end is very close [x] brag

Blasphemy. We demand proof.

On May 08 2008 08:15 Rekrul wrote: two korean fish just spewed me 470k in 3 days on some fishy site i don't think the end is very close [x] brag

Korean site? which one? Need citizen ID?

i would never lie about such a pathetic superficial thing

it was on gold chip network one of the site owners who is a degen (sick aggrotard fisH that i have played live with before) not only spewed me his entire bankroll but also some bankroll that the skin used as capital to do cash-ins/cashouts so the skin is basically dead and the skin that i won the $ on is loving me cause i destroyed their competitor and they will get their players i beat him for like 380k

then another korean player who thinks he's good challenged me to hu. i knew this guy from long ago in undergrounds he's also yet another cocky kor that thinks hes good raped him for the rest

all HU mostly i am a legend in korea now everyone calling offices asking WHO IS MONSTER85 WTF WTF WTF WTF

i was broke then suddenly 3 days later i have half a million, thats pretty funny

[x]braaaaaaagggggggg

its www.hahapoker.com but currently hard to cashin / cashout unless u live in korea or know the owners so you're all fucked and the fish are all mine

I've felt a slight decline lately but IMO the declines come with summer and next winter you'll all be able to build some good roll, not like you can't get any game at all plus you can play on many different site on the site time and get all the bad competition you need. Never heard of hahapoker that looks hella fishy to me, it's mostly korean site...? At first I would have thought those korean w a SC background could have some good logic for poker... maybe not.

we could all become live players

ummm hahapoker is perfect site name for asians they can spell it and remember it easily

YO U PLAY ON HAHA? I PLAY ON HAHA. HAHA.

On May 08 2008 08:52 Rekrul wrote: its www.hahapoker.com but currently hard to cashin / cashout unless u live in korea or know the owners so you're all fucked and the fish are all mine

How would the koreans go there? The Korean link doesn't work? Is it just some private thing?

Maynard, it sounds like you just want easy money and don't want to work for it too hard.. So it's only a matter of how easy you want your money to be. When it becomes too hard for you, you will quit and someone who is willing to work harder will take your place. It's like that with everything in life.. If you work hard, you have nothing to worry about and if you don't want to, well, then no forum thread on the internet is not going to help you..

On May 08 2008 09:33 neveragain wrote: Maynard, it sounds like you just want easy money and don't want to work for it too hard.. So it's only a matter of how easy you want your money to be. When it becomes too hard for you, you will quit and someone who is willing to work harder will take your place. It's like that with everything in life.. If you work hard, you have nothing to worry about and if you don't want to, well, then no forum thread on the internet is not going to help you..

1. You know nothing about me.
2. That wasn't really the point of the post.

Except for the part about you Maynard I totally agree on neveragain, newer competition willing to work harder will obviously come if you still outplay them then you are still a winner, of course there will be a decline but it's not gonna big enough or soon enough to prevent us from making tons of money from it, it might just be harder but we'll adapt.

Also I hope Haha doesn't have any link w microgaming network? BF closure makes it a scary place to play at.

On May 08 2008 09:53 Oddeye wrote: Except for the part about you Maynard I totally agree on neveragain, newer competition willing to work harder will obviously come if you still outplay them then you are still a winner, of course there will be a decline but it's not gonna big enough or soon enough to prevent us from making tons of money from it, it might just be harder but we'll adapt. Also I hope Haha doesn't have any link w microgaming network? BF closure makes it a scary place to play at.

Some will adapt and make sacrifices, some will fail to.

Seems like Maynard is repeating the same pattern as on broodwar, he couldn't keep up with the competition so he gave up

oooh history repeats!

On May 08 2008 10:02 Fayth wrote: Seems like Maynard is repeating the same pattern as on broodwar, he couldn't keep up with the competition so he gave up oooh history repeats!

hahaha

Yea I guess thats why most people quit. They just couldn't keep up. Testie was the first one standing and is now the last one standing. I couldn't keep up with competition like that.

You obviously have never played live / in vegas ever...

On May 08 2008 09:39 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 09:33 neveragain wrote: Maynard, it sounds like you just want easy money and don't want to work for it too hard.. So it's only a matter of how easy you want your money to be. When it becomes too hard for you, you will quit and someone who is willing to work harder will take your place. It's like that with everything in life.. If you work hard, you have nothing to worry about and if you don't want to, well, then no forum thread on the internet is not going to help you.. 1. You know nothing about me. 2. That wasn't really the point of the post.

Fair enough, maybe I'm wrong. So what's the point then?

I think Maynard & HovZ need to bunk together and share thoughts on why they break even for retarded periods of time and blame other forces of nature for failing so hard.

On May 08 2008 10:18 JonnyCosMo wrote: I think Maynard & HovZ need to bunk together and share thoughts on why they break even for retarded periods of time and blame other forces of nature for failing so hard.

The line I've used before in this thread: Those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

I've never played live. The way i utilize poker doesn't really permit this.

On May 08 2008 10:15 neveragain wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 09:39 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 09:33 neveragain wrote: Maynard, it sounds like you just want easy money and don't want to work for it too hard.. So it's only a matter of how easy you want your money to be. When it becomes too hard for you, you will quit and someone who is willing to work harder will take your place. It's like that with everything in life.. If you work hard, you have nothing to worry about and if you don't want to, well, then no forum thread on the internet is not going to help you.. 1. You know nothing about me. 2. That wasn't really the point of the post. Fair enough, maybe I'm wrong. So what's the point then?

Oh just saying pool of players that aren't as skilled is shrinking and its becoming harder. Before many people I spoke with wondered "I wonder if this will last." Now it seems that we're starting to see the beginning of the end. Some of my pals who were playing from the start are now playing several levels below where they were 2 years ago. Players I know and respect seem to share the same sentiment.

Recently I've just decided that profitability (thats all poker is to me: $) might be greater in the real world.

I think this isn't the case, the way I see it I just have to get better to beat the regulars, didn't really expect to see that much fish at NL1k+

On May 08 2008 04:36 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:31 CrownRoyal wrote: yeah, terrible topic, terrible content full of what ifs and shit that some heatered 1ptbb/100 lifetime poker player thinks about the online poker world. seriously, don't do this. Seriously don't criticize someone like that when you play microstakes.

[ ] Playing low stakes means you can't have way better ideas of global economical tendencies that may affect near future player pool booms than a mostly uneducated ex BW playing poker player


I am not targetting anyone in particular I am simply annoyed by unneccessary generalization. Wait, that's not true.

On May 08 2008 11:17 Repusz wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:36 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:31 CrownRoyal wrote: yeah, terrible topic, terrible content full of what ifs and shit that some heatered 1ptbb/100 lifetime poker player thinks about the online poker world. seriously, don't do this. Seriously don't criticize someone like that when you play microstakes. [ ] Playing low stakes means you can't have way better ideas of global economical tendencies that may affect near future player pool booms than a mostly uneducated ex BW playing poker player I am not targetting anyone in particular I am simply annoyed by unneccessary generalization. Wait, that's not true.

He made that generalization towards me. I responded in kind.

On May 08 2008 10:26 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 10:15 neveragain wrote:   On May 08 2008 09:39 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 09:33 neveragain wrote: Maynard, it sounds like you just want easy money and don't want to work for it too hard.. So it's only a matter of how easy you want your money to be. When it becomes too hard for you, you will quit and someone who is willing to work harder will take your place. It's like that with everything in life.. If you work hard, you have nothing to worry about and if you don't want to, well, then no forum thread on the internet is not going to help you.. 1. You know nothing about me. 2. That wasn't really the point of the post. Fair enough, maybe I'm wrong. So what's the point then? Oh just saying pool of players that aren't as skilled is shrinking and its becoming harder. Before many people I spoke with wondered "I wonder if this will last." Now it seems that we're starting to see the beginning of the end. Some of my pals who were playing from the start are now playing several levels below where they were 2 years ago. Players I know and respect seem to share the same sentiment. Recently I've just decided that profitability (thats all poker is to me: $) might be greater in the real world.

If they can't keep up it's their own fault.

On May 08 2008 11:21 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 11:17 Repusz wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:36 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:31 CrownRoyal wrote: yeah, terrible topic, terrible content full of what ifs and shit that some heatered 1ptbb/100 lifetime poker player thinks about the online poker world. seriously, don't do this. Seriously don't criticize someone like that when you play microstakes. [ ] Playing low stakes means you can't have way better ideas of global economical tendencies that may affect near future player pool booms than a mostly uneducated ex BW playing poker player I am not targetting anyone in particular I am simply annoyed by unneccessary generalization. Wait, that's not true. He made that generalization towards me. I responded in kind.

The generalization of saying he thinks you're wrong? How dare he!

Besides that not even being a generalization. Your memory fails

On May 08 2008 11:27 FrEaK[S.sIR] wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 11:21 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 11:17 Repusz wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:36 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:31 CrownRoyal wrote: yeah, terrible topic, terrible content full of what ifs and shit that some heatered 1ptbb/100 lifetime poker player thinks about the online poker world. seriously, don't do this. Seriously don't criticize someone like that when you play microstakes. [ ] Playing low stakes means you can't have way better ideas of global economical tendencies that may affect near future player pool booms than a mostly uneducated ex BW playing poker player I am not targetting anyone in particular I am simply annoyed by unneccessary generalization. Wait, that's not true. He made that generalization towards me. I responded in kind. The generalization of saying he thinks you're wrong? How dare he! Besides that not even being a generalization. Your memory fails

He dismissed my opinion on his perceived basis that I played microstakes poorly. I responded in kind by dismissing his opinion because he played microstakes. We both generalized and discounted each other's position on the basis of perceived poker ability.

On May 08 2008 11:21 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 11:17 Repusz wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:36 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:31 CrownRoyal wrote: yeah, terrible topic, terrible content full of what ifs and shit that some heatered 1ptbb/100 lifetime poker player thinks about the online poker world. seriously, don't do this. Seriously don't criticize someone like that when you play microstakes. [ ] Playing low stakes means you can't have way better ideas of global economical tendencies that may affect near future player pool booms than a mostly uneducated ex BW playing poker player I am not targetting anyone in particular I am simply annoyed by unneccessary generalization. Wait, that's not true. He made that generalization towards me. I responded in kind.

Maybe, but since you probably don't blog in this thread, you started it to exchange oppinions. He shared his, which may be wrong, or the manner in which he has written it might be wrong, but dismissing him based on a fact that is only partially relevant to the potential depths of his reply is kind of self defensive, and since the initial theme of the thread wasn't a "let's discuss Maynard's future" it's kind of pointless. Ignore him.

The Yomer from a year ago would get crushed by the yomer of today.

The same goes with the online games. They are evolving and why wouldn't they with all the resources available to you? A fish loses 10k playing 2/4 NL and if he wants to continue playing i'm sure most of them will try to educate themselves on poker. And there's many ways to get information (and good information at that) about poker.

Just because the games are tougher doesn't mean they aren't beatable. I wish i could go back in time a few years

Now they just need to repeal that gay poker law and open the floodgates of profit

Im convinced of the opposite, more and more people will play the game and internet is almost a tool used by this new generation on a daily basis. What we really have to watch for is credibility, expose cheaters publicly and send the message: "Look, online poker is friendly and fair, you can make huge money and have fun, come and play".

AP scandal was a kick in the nuts for online poker, the poker fauna needs to hunt the black sheeps or the money will get out of the circuit. Do the games get tougher ? Only the high stakes regs can say it , do casual players get better ? Hell no, because it's a recreational game for them and they're willing to spend a couple of hundos for the fun of it and this is exactly what makes this game profitable.

Now we know the pool of players will grow exponentially as China and India will open to the world, and they'll make more money per inhabitant, meaning more cash flow injected in the industry of entertainment which im convinced Poker belongs to. Now the food chain will do its job and the better player will gather money off the fishes, maybe you're feeling like it's changing on the short run but long term, online poker will still be highly profitable.

On May 08 2008 10:26 Maynard! wrote: Recently I've just decided that profitability (thats all poker is to me: $) might be greater in the real world.

How much are u looking to match in the real world?

yeha to make more from RWorld job than from poker u need a pretty damn kick ass job !

i dont have the energy to share my entire philosophy on why i think poker will never become too hard to profit from, suffice to say i disagree completely with the OP. games are not particularly tougher right now than they were a year ago. imo games will never dry up, at least not at the levels 95% of us play.

New people are born every day...think about it.

if you spent the same amount of time playing and working on your game as you did making and arguing this point you might not have to make and argue your point. i think it's always been the case that if you don't improve you go broke but i agree that it is more true now than ever and you can also physically see it w/ a lot of the big winners from 2-3 years ago. the ones that really enjoy poker and working on their game continue to be winners. the ones that don't went broke or have 100% risk of ruin if they keep playing or were smart and are doing something else now.

On May 08 2008 08:52 Rekrul wrote: WHO IS MONSTER85

You took Oyvind Riisems nick ? There was a famous norwegian player under the nick "monster85" playing on crypto network before, he changed to "Staalmusa" now thou.

He was famous? He was a pretty solid reg on crypto.

Anyway, I just take a look at brood war and see that the same people who were good 5 years ago and still playing are still on top of the game (looking at the non-korean scene), i.e. mondragon. Brood War has evolved a shitload over the past 3 years but there are still bad players (bad regulars) and really good players (good regulars) who still bring innovative shit to the game. That adaptivity is what sets apart good poker players from average poker players. If you strive to be that good player there's no way the games won't be profitable for you.

Everyone gets better, so should you. Don't whine when people catch up because your rate of progression sucks.

On May 08 2008 13:37 VanDerMeyde wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 08:52 Rekrul wrote: WHO IS MONSTER85 You took Oyvind Riisems nick ? There was a famous norwegian player under the nick "monster85" playing on crypto network before, he changed to "Staalmusa" now thou.

Let me guess why he took it :
- Monster poker... check
- born in 1985... check
MONSTER85 IS BORN

I guess several good players were born that year !

awesome thought process catul

i agree with u maynard
its very hard to find fish these days

On May 08 2008 13:25 tae-g wrote: New people are born every day...think about it.

Do you have any evidence to support this claim?

still easy

On May 08 2008 13:47 Twisted wrote: He was famous? He was a pretty solid reg on crypto. Anyway, I just take a look at brood war and see that the same people who were good 5 years ago and still playing are still on top of the game (looking at the non-korean scene), i.e. mondragon. Brood War has evolved a shitload over the past 3 years but there are still bad players (bad regulars) and really good players (good regulars) who still bring innovative shit to the game. That adaptivity is what sets apart good poker players from average poker players. If you strive to be that good player there's no way the games won't be profitable for you. Everyone gets better, so should you. Don't whine when people catch up because your rate of progression sucks.

You can't analogize the two really. Brood war isn't sustained by players in the bottom rung.

I don't know why everyone is being so forceful in stating that reducing the player pool of people who merely play for fun and donate won't have an impact.

I guess I'm just being too much of a downer.

On May 08 2008 14:22 TalentedTom wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 13:25 tae-g wrote: New people are born every day...think about it. Do you have any evidence to support this claim?

I am likewise skeptical.

if you had like 40k to your name Rek who gave u the BR to play those fishes?

personally I _hope_ you're right

I think you're not though and I believe asia is the reason

Games are fine and will be for quite some time.. Enough to make enough money for a lifetime it seems.

On May 08 2008 15:20 Liquid`Drone wrote: personally I _hope_ you're right I think you're not though and I believe asia is the reason

Dude wtf? Eri why would you *WANT* poker to go away?

I think all Maynard is trying to say is that the games are getting tougher at a faster rate than they had been previously...mostly due to stuff like UIGEA, increased access to poker strategy, etc. It's obviously more or less impossible to make some kind of wholly objective and blanket statement about the level of toughness across all of online poker, but I'd tend to agree with his assessment.

It's possible to hold the above opinion while *also* believing that talented, dedicated players will be able to continue beating the games for a very good clip for a long time to come...it's just that their hourly rate will likely be less than it would have been had the UIGEA never come into effect, or things like 2+2 / LP.net / Cardrunners didn't exist.

EDIT:

As I alluded to above, I also feel like it's very difficult for any single individual to accurately chart the softness of games over time. Most of us have very limited windows into the poker economy:

1.) People tend to only play on a single site, play a single genre of poker, and play a very small range of limits.

2.) Win-rates take a long time to converge, and we're apt to place too much importance on our own win-rate over a small time frame when making judgments about the overall softness of a particular game.

Similarly, it's really hard to know which variables are impacting the games the most. I'm theorizing that the UIGEA + poker training sites have a big impact, but I could be totally off base. Maybe a large portion of the poker economy had been funded by a non-renewable source of capital which is now drying up, and the 'renewable' portion of money flowing into the economy isn't large enough to sustain the growing number of competent players?

Etc, etc.

On May 08 2008 16:40 Pillars wrote: I think all Maynard is trying to say is that the games are getting tougher at a faster rate than they had been previously...mostly due to stuff like UIGEA, increased access to poker strategy, etc. It's obviously more or less impossible to make some kind of wholly objective and blanket statement about the level of toughness across all of online poker, but I'd tend to agree with his assessment. It's possible to hold the above opinion while *also* believing that talented, dedicated players will be able to continue beating the games for a very good clip for a long time to come...it's just that their hourly rate will likely be less than it would have been had the UIGEA never come into effect, or things like 2+2 / LP.net / Cardrunners didn't exist. EDIT: As I alluded to above, I also feel like it's very difficult for any single individual to accurately chart the softness of games over time. Most of us have very limited windows into the poker economy: 1.) People tend to only play on a single site, play a single genre of poker, and play a very small range of limits. 2.) Win-rates take a long time to converge, and we're apt to place too much importance on our own win-rate over a small time frame when making judgments about the overall softness of a particular game. Similarly, it's really hard to know which variables are impacting the games the most. I'm theorizing that the UIGEA + poker training sites have a big impact, but I could be totally off base. Maybe a large portion of the poker economy had been funded by a non-renewable source of capital which is now drying up, and the 'renewable' portion of money flowing into the economy isn't large enough to sustain the growing number of competent players? Etc, etc.

Didn't think of that. I like a bathtub analogy. Abathtub that is draining faster than the faucet is filling. A few years ago the bathtub was filling quicker than what was draining out.

On May 08 2008 13:51 Catul wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 13:37 VanDerMeyde wrote:   On May 08 2008 08:52 Rekrul wrote: WHO IS MONSTER85 You took Oyvind Riisems nick ? There was a famous norwegian player under the nick "monster85" playing on crypto network before, he changed to "Staalmusa" now thou. Let me guess why he took it : - Monster poker... check - born in 1985... check MONSTER85 IS BORN I guess several good players were born that year !

ok!

Btw Eriador is running bad :D

Online poker is getting tougher, but not enough for me. I think we're gonna have problems in 10 years or so. Then we switch to live poker

TOTALLY off topic:

What uni are you at maynard? what are you studying? ^_^

ppl will always tilt, dont be one of them

online poker is ez just run like p3achy_keen!

On May 08 2008 15:20 Baal wrote: if you had like 40k to your name Rek who gave u the BR to play those fishes?

giyom was showing rainkhan the site then rainkhan offered to stake me 30k for it so i said ok first session i was up 42k so he got half of that then i ended the stake and continued playing the guy at 25/50 with my 21k cuz he was so bad

On May 08 2008 19:05 Day[9] wrote: TOTALLY off topic: What uni are you at maynard? what are you studying? ^_^

New York University - Law

On May 08 2008 09:03 Rekrul wrote: YO U PLAY ON HAHA? I PLAY ON HAHA. HAHA.

how is noone laughing at this lol

On May 08 2008 21:26 D_Zoo wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 09:03 Rekrul wrote: YO U PLAY ON HAHA? I PLAY ON HAHA. HAHA. how is noone laughing at this lol

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

On May 08 2008 21:35 bigbb33 wrote: "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

even from my limited experience with poker i think it's pretty clear that it's the beginning of the end of the beginning of the end of the beginning of the end of the end of the beginning

I have not read thread but if the games are getting tougher, its cause your not improving fast enough.

now u have to accept that fact that u need to make a hand and then wait for other ppl to make hands instead of pot pot pot and get value from 3rd pair

and thus lower winrate

lewl

On May 08 2008 14:22 TalentedTom wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 13:25 tae-g wrote: New people are born every day...think about it. Do you have any evidence to support this claim?

none whatsoever

On May 08 2008 22:45 collegesucks wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 21:35 bigbb33 wrote: "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." even from my limited experience with poker i think it's pretty clear that it's the beginning of the end of the beginning of the end of the beginning of the end of the end of the beginning

Your limited experience with WW2 shows that you don't understand that there may be an intermediate period between the beginning and the end, possibly called the middle.

On May 08 2008 16:24 TianYuan wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 15:20 Liquid`Drone wrote: personally I _hope_ you're right I think you're not though and I believe asia is the reason Dude wtf? Eri why would you *WANT* poker to go away?

cuz online poker kinda sucks
I mean ive won a significant amount this year and never lost total and ive enjoyed the money ive won and everything
but I just dont see how anyone other than the lucky few who win + pokersites benefit from it all
I like live poker / poker played recreationally. then it's cool. but giving all the brightest young teenagers the ability to make money doing nothing productive is just bound to backfire eventually. it's just not a healthy activity way to make a living, not for the people involved nor for society.

i do think playing and winning is cool though. and the whole, people ruining their lives cause of it doesnt bother me that much, as it is "their own choice" or whatever. a little when its some dad with children who suffer cause of it but I don't think that's generally the case. it's just that well, online poker makes some individuals, normally intelligent ones, make lots of money, which works as a de-motivator for doing anything actually productive and contributive, and other individuals, whom actually spend most of their time doing something productive and contributive (which is how they afford gambling), to lose money, and some giant moneyhogging bastards residing in tax paradises to make millions due to these "transactions" that I think are bad in the first place.

i mean i really try to say this without meaning any offense to any poker player cause there's like, no intention from my part to say that well, you guys are bad, you're just taking opportunities that anyone would take, (and that I have to some degree taken myself)
its just that society doesnt benefit from it at all, and I think on a long term basis, nor will a vast majority of those who try to play poker professionally. which you might disagree with, that's your prerogative.

that sound like a big hipocrecy to me eri

i guess it is, but we all are so its okay.

point is, I think doing nothing all day is cool and if it's something I can do while making lots of money, i'll do it
however if everyone has that option, nothing gets done and society begins to suck.

thus while I enjoy doing nothing productive, I don't think it's good to give me that option. poker is kind of like a really, really extreme welfare. however while welfare gives you enough to survive, it doesnt give you enough to thrive socially, in fact it puts you on the bottom rung of society, thus it's only something the laziest of the lazy and those without dreams will "do for a living", unless they really don't have much of a choice. internet poker gives people in their late teens/ early twenties the ability to be economically successful in a way that was impossible without inheriting money before. and well, it sucks, cause that's the period of time where those same people would have been motivated to do a great job in university so they could eventually attain economical success later. internet poker thus works as a de-motivator for the ones smart enough to master it ; to a large degree the ones who would otherwise make society progress.

but its very important to note that the "villain" in my scenario is not poker, nor poker players, but internet poker institutionalized in a way that makes it possible to do nothing but play.

the same can be said for options traders, real estate investors, and quite a few other things.

i kinda have the same opinion in regard to many of those professions but they're not accessible to "every man" in the same way online poker is. just because other professions are also bad doesnt make poker good. the "other way" for non-inheriting teenagers to attain large wealth has, the past couple decades, been through dealing drugs. I think poker is better than that. (well not really cause I kind of like drugs but you get my point )

either you're slingin' crack rock or you got a wicked jump shot...ya feel me?

On May 09 2008 20:00 tae-g wrote: either you're slingin' crack rock or you got a wicked jump shot...ya feel me?

what a reference A+

Well you can always make some site like.. lets say... GosuPoker, with some neat design, flashy graphics, and start giving bad advise. That could compesate LP an CR.

Eri is clearly unaware how the internet work... its just like downloading movies, i dont want it to be wrong or illegal, therefore it isnt. standard stuff.

My impression is that there are many, many, many people in Norway that has the same view of poker as Eriador.

On May 09 2008 15:51 Liquid`Drone wrote: i guess it is, but we all are so its okay. point is, I think doing nothing all day is cool and if it's something I can do while making lots of money, i'll do it however if everyone has that option, nothing gets done and society begins to suck. thus while I enjoy doing nothing productive, I don't think it's good to give me that option. poker is kind of like a really, really extreme welfare. however while welfare gives you enough to survive, it doesnt give you enough to thrive socially, in fact it puts you on the bottom rung of society, thus it's only something the laziest of the lazy and those without dreams will "do for a living", unless they really don't have much of a choice. internet poker gives people in their late teens/ early twenties the ability to be economically successful in a way that was impossible without inheriting money before. and well, it sucks, cause that's the period of time where those same people would have been motivated to do a great job in university so they could eventually attain economical success later. internet poker thus works as a de-motivator for the ones smart enough to master it ; to a large degree the ones who would otherwise make society progress. but its very important to note that the "villain" in my scenario is not poker, nor poker players, but internet poker institutionalized in a way that makes it possible to do nothing but play.

I've had these thoughts as well.

Oh well... Where my fishes at?

I remember having this same conversation with Skot.

I couldn't agree more with Maynard. But time will tell if we are right about that or not I suppose.

GL :D

On May 08 2008 04:32 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:28 byrnesam wrote: its probably over for americans... Yea I guess I haven't given a hard look to the Euro-sites. There's also a possibility of a big asian boom (that would be AMAZING). I just know that stars is getting somewhat rough. Good tables are now defined when a regular is tilting and you have position as opposed to having an idiot playing 40/30 spewing chips.

The big asian boom is gonna hit by late 2009-2010, so if you can hold out till then, you're gonna ride the asian wave. online poker is just starting to take off in the phlippines and HK; likely after mid-2009, Chinese visiting macau will no longer have visa restrictions (there are some areas of China where it is difficult to get a visa to come to Macau) and by 2010 all the mega casinos in Macau will be done and PS, just launched a poker room in Macau a couple of days ago.
So, just my personal opinon, have no fear people, the online poker companies are just as concerned as you to find new fish for the regular sharkies out there or in business speak, new markets to support and augment the exisitng player base. keke.

On May 09 2008 15:51 Liquid`Drone wrote: i guess it is, but we all are so its okay. point is, I think doing nothing all day is cool and if it's something I can do while making lots of money, i'll do it however if everyone has that option, nothing gets done and society begins to suck. thus while I enjoy doing nothing productive, I don't think it's good to give me that option. poker is kind of like a really, really extreme welfare. however while welfare gives you enough to survive, it doesnt give you enough to thrive socially, in fact it puts you on the bottom rung of society, thus it's only something the laziest of the lazy and those without dreams will "do for a living", unless they really don't have much of a choice. internet poker gives people in their late teens/ early twenties the ability to be economically successful in a way that was impossible without inheriting money before. and well, it sucks, cause that's the period of time where those same people would have been motivated to do a great job in university so they could eventually attain economical success later. internet poker thus works as a de-motivator for the ones smart enough to master it ; to a large degree the ones who would otherwise make society progress. but its very important to note that the "villain" in my scenario is not poker, nor poker players, but internet poker institutionalized in a way that makes it possible to do nothing but play.

this view holds true, if only you are under the assumption that a successful poker player, won't do much else and just play poker.
some people are using their poker "income" as a stepping stone to get into other areas of business and/or investing.
giving to charity is also another means to "give back" to society.