We're experiencing the beginning of the end

I hate to say it but I think it is coming true. Games are getting tougher. Higher stakes players are moving down. Tables are more often than not filled 100% with long term regulars.

Something good needs to happen. Something in the next year or two. Otherwise, I think a lot of people are going to have to give plan B a good hard look. Unfortunately, I know I have.

I think I've mentally given up on the possibility of sustaining an acceptable win-rate(long term) that would be greater than a win-rate achievable in the real world.

[ ] youre correct

On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct

Wish I wasn't... I just think the good times are behind us unless something good happens (frank's bill, etc.). Every player I speak w/ often shares my feelings. It has always been a "what if," or "will it?" Now it seems to be a reality.

its probably over for americans...

I think youre overdoing it, its def. could be better but i dont think its worse than like a half year ago. I cant speak for highter stakes than nl400 tho, maybe its true you cant bulldoze nl2k+ anymore and be a millionare like ultra fast but thats not my problem yet :D

yeah, terrible topic, terrible content full of what ifs and shit that some heatered 1ptbb/100 lifetime poker player thinks about the online poker world.

seriously, don't do this.

On May 08 2008 04:28 byrnesam wrote: its probably over for americans...

Yea I guess I haven't given a hard look to the Euro-sites. There's also a possibility of a big asian boom (that would be AMAZING).

I just know that stars is getting somewhat rough. Good tables are now defined when a regular is tilting and you have position as opposed to having an idiot playing 40/30 spewing chips.

except for diamonds, nothing is forever

On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct

[ ] 10nl players are a good judge

On May 08 2008 04:31 CrownRoyal wrote: yeah, terrible topic, terrible content full of what ifs and shit that some heatered 1ptbb/100 lifetime poker player thinks about the online poker world. seriously, don't do this.

Seriously don't criticize someone like that when you play microstakes.

On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge

OH SORRYLOL

[X] HE IS CORRECT BASED ON EXPERT OPINION

end of the world. quit life.

On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge

Edit: My bad.

too much education going on -_-

ok you got me there but your topic's content sucked so bad I couldn't help it.

On May 08 2008 04:37 byrnesam wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge OH SORRYLOL [X] HE IS CORRECT BASED ON EXPERT OPINION

WTF you play microstakes too. Please don't throw stones if you live in glass houses.

On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal.

He didn't quote byrnesam for no reason lol.

On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal.

[ ] he was talking to you

On May 08 2008 04:39 CrownRoyal wrote: ok you got me there but your topic's content sucked so bad I couldn't help it.

Ya I guess its a negative topic and it isn't helping anything really. I'm just genuinely concerned about this as much of my life is built around sustainability of poker money.

On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal.

not sure if this is another if your hilarious levelling games or something but i was responding to byrnesam in my post, not u. i agree that the games now are drying up a lot and you have to be really good and disciplined to make consistent money, much more so than ever before.

On May 08 2008 04:40 Twisted wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal. He didn't quote byrnesam for no reason lol.

Eh.. my bad.. Seriously, sorry for dissings then. I got jumepd on pretty hard and was defensive.

What stakes are you playing atm? What i can see from railbirding alot is that nosebleed players seems to go down in limits, both because higher gamers arent really running that often anymore and maybe also because they realized the variance is to high up there? So yeah i can for sure see that nl2k and 5k games are ALOT thoughter maybe thats even the case for 1k nowdays, like when watching Green Plastic videos/reading his blog he says the 1k game is really thought nowdays. But i mean even nl200 pays more than a great majority of the REGULAR irl-jobs so i dunno...

On May 08 2008 04:40 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:37 byrnesam wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge OH SORRYLOL [X] HE IS CORRECT BASED ON EXPERT OPINION WTF you play microstakes too. Please don't throw stones if you live in glass houses.

well, lets consider what you say in the OP is fact

the higher stakes regs are moving down because the games are tougher
which should create a knockon effect of mid stakes players moving down
low stakes regs moving down
and thus microstakes games are tougher.

On May 08 2008 04:43 Ket wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:38 Maynard! wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:35 Ket wrote:   On May 08 2008 04:25 byrnesam wrote: [ ] youre correct [ ] 10nl players are a good judge ...... Just because I said I could probably earn more in the real world doesn't mean I play micro stakes. Not everyone would have to go to McDonalds if poker didn't work out pal. not sure if this is another if your hilarious levelling games or something but i was responding to byrnesam in my post, not u. i agree that the games now are drying up a lot and you have to be really good and disciplined to make consistent money, much more so than ever before.

My bad man. I thought it was a group jumping on me and I got defensive.

Hm for low stakes this is not true

I play Nl50 and ive met 2 semi decent players so far
rest sucked ass

and beating NL100 for 4BB/100 is like 40$ / h which is definitely
good enough to compete with most normal jobs

On May 08 2008 04:44 Balzamon wrote: What stakes are you playing atm? What i can see from railbirding alot is that nosebleed players seems to go down in limits, both because higher gamers arent really running that often anymore and maybe also because they realized the variance is to high up there? So yeah i can for sure see that nl2k and 5k games are ALOT thoughter maybe thats even the case for 1k nowdays, like when watching Green Plastic videos/reading his blog he says the 1k game is really thought nowdays. But i mean even nl200 pays more than a great majority of the REGULAR irl-jobs so i dunno...

I was doing 3/6 for a while and decided to move down b/c of school / finals. I saw a lot of 5/10ers move down to 3/6. I wanted to play stress free and not worry about money. Now I see a lot of people from 3/6 moving down to 2/4 as well.

I moved down a little while ago when I was about to give 5/10 a real shot (had taken many stabs before) now I'm sitting at 2/4 not really seeing a bright future. Its very rare that my tables aren't composed entirely of people I've seen at 2/4 and 3/6 (even the occasional 5/10 player) for ages.

there are only few options (in order from what would help us most):
a) US
degens will be able to deposit one more time without problems,
even with credit card (games will never be as soft as on party few years ago, but still def. easier)
b)much bigger boom in europe.
i actually kinda doubt this one
c)there will be an asia boom
kinda hard to imagine players from china playing like 2/4+ because this is insane money for most of them+others problems like government, censorship etc.
but china is not only country there

i really hope that in like next 18 months or so at least option A will be there for us if not we are screwed ;]

I can only speak about midstakes but yeah they are getting tougher. Still, there are a ton of money to be made it just isn`t as ez as before. You gotta play better and be much more disciplined in order to sustain a nice winrate now as Ket said. Game selection becomes bigger and bigger too. One really has to be an ultimate-zone warrior

On May 08 2008 04:50 Svetoslav wrote: I can only speak about midstakes but yeah they are getting tougher. Still, there are a ton of money to be made it just isn`t as ez as before. You gotta play better and be much more disciplined in order to sustain a nice winrate now as Ket said. Game selection becomes bigger and bigger too. One really has to be an ultimate-zone warrior

I think it'll hurt the low-stakes(1/2 - 3/6) players the most I think. They'll move from the cusp of making this a real thing to microstakes.

how many times in your starcraft career did the scene die?

On May 08 2008 04:56 byrnesam wrote: how many times in your starcraft career did the scene die?

The scene never exploded. 2-3 people made money. The rest made close to nothing when I was there. Might have changed slightly since I left but I doubt it.

On May 08 2008 04:58 Maynard! wrote: Show nested quote + On May 08 2008 04:56 byrnesam wrote: how many times in your starcraft career did the scene die? The scene never exploded. 2-3 people made money. The rest made close to nothing when I was there.

dunno if you can compare scene to making money

imagine a scene with a game that revolves around money and is a hobbie for millions of people and has international exposure.

YEH UR RIGHT ITS PROBABLY GONNA DIE

A+ thread

On May 08 2008 05:01 byrnesam wrote: imagine a scene with a game that revolves around money and is a hobbie for millions of people and has international exposure. YEH UR RIGHT ITS PROBABLY GONNA DIE

Maybe we have different definitions of die. There will always be a place to play. I don't know if there will always be a good place to play and make a solid win-rate in the future.

And I also agree with OP. Denying the fact that the games have gradually gotten noticeably tougher is pretty optimistic to say the least.

Stingers march graph



of course 3 years ago these were common place...