[500NL]AK to a shortstack raise and 3bet by reg

I didn't have proper stats on either of the players because my PAHud was acting very weird, but I was pretty sure the shortstack UTG was of the donkey variety (looking at PT re-inforces this - 47/23). The reg 3betting I also didn't have access to perfect stats on but he's 20/16.

If maximus had been 3betting a tight reg/reg opening UTG I would muck here but I felt I can't muck when he's 3betting a fish.. I've recieved 3 different answers about this hand - "pretty sure it's a fold", "you have an ace and a king, play them like you would an ace and an ace", "wow thought it was a fold but looks really close".
I'll try to get some more detailed answers later on obviously but this hand is killing me so I'm gonna post it.

I can't edit out the results because for some reason my pokertracker is also acting up and I can't actually use the handhistory viewer there -_- I don't think there's any huge surprise to anyone what the result of the hand is anyway

EDIT: My reasoning is this btw: If I 3bet, sometimes the fish is gonna stick it in with various crap that I beat. Reg is gonna shove QQ+ AK+ I thiiiink, so the times he folds JJ, TT, maybe 99 if he 3bets that (since the fish is sooo loose I think he might) and probably AQ and maybe AJ, I take down a pretty big pot.

Submitted by : TianYuan

Game #6983750994: Hold'em NL ($2/$5) - 2008/05/03 - 18:03:30 (UK)
Table "Eightofhearts" Seat 4 is the button.
Seat 1: KG84 ($484 in chips)
Seat 2: poker987 ($174.30 in chips)
Seat 3: mymaximus ($493 in chips)
Seat 4: Hiroll002 ($312.83 in chips)
Seat 5: Daigle sits out
Seat 6: Qqqoooqqq ($755.50 in chips)
Qqqoooqqq : posts small blind $2
KG84: posts big blind $5

Holecards(Odds)
dealt to Qqqoooqqq
poker987: raises to $15
mymaximus: raises to $50
Hiroll002: folds
Qqqoooqqq : raises to $125
KG84: folds
poker987: folds
mymaximus: raises to $493 and is all-in
Qqqoooqqq : calls $368

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $1,006.00)

   

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $1,006.00)

   

River (Pot : $1,006.00)

   

Showdown
mymaximus: shows (Two Pairs, Aces and Jacks, Eight high)
Qqqoooqqq : shows (A Pair of Jacks, Ace high)
mymaximus collected $1003 from Main pot

Summary
Total pot $1006 Main pot $1003 Rake $3
Board
Seat 1: KG84 (big blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: poker987 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: mymaximus showed and won ($1003) with Two Pairs, Aces and Jacks, Eight high
Seat 4: Hiroll002 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Qqqoooqqq (small blind) showed and lost with A Pair of Jacks, Ace high
|Uff

not specifically related to hand:+ Show Spoiler +

I didn't have proper stats on either of the players because my PAHud was acting very weird

just in case, i had this problem cos i was using the cracked version. when i asked support he said it had a trojan or something in it. so not necessarily for u, im guessing u bought the real version, but anyone out there that DL'd the crack, its bad for your computer so get the legit cd key only $25 or so

Obviously if you 4 bet you have to get it in, even against QQ+/AK. And who can resist 4betting here? Surely a reg is 3betting fairly light against that LAG donkey.

Looks like a cooler to me.

On May 04 2008 05:49 lachlan wrote: not specifically related to hand:+ Show Spoiler + Show nested quote + I didn't have proper stats on either of the players because my PAHud was acting very weird just in case, i had this problem cos i was using the cracked version. when i asked support he said it had a trojan or something in it. so not necessarily for u, im guessing u bought the real version, but anyone out there that DL'd the crack, its bad for your computer so get the legit cd key only $25 or so

I used the cracked version loooooong ago but I couldn't get it to work. Bought a legit copy at NL25.

Oh and one player is sitting out, which I probably realized while playing but not while looking at HH. Dunno if it has any real impact tho.

i dont fully understand how just because u 4 bet someone with AK, you absolutely must call their shove. i mean it makes some sense but im not on top of it. when you 4 bet them, u are usually showing some big strength. villain sees strength and shoves. wtf? why does this make it a snap call with at best two overcards, when villain should be scared shitless that you have AA or KK and still shoves?

blind vs blind, button vs blinds, co vs button makes fine sense since both will have a huge range. but in general play where it's not a specific situation mentioned where both ranges are huge, i dont really get it. calling $350 more when you are flipping at best? isn't AK only good when you're the one that shoved, not calling a huge ass shove.

can someone explain it again? it's a big part of poker and i really want to learn about it

I HAVE to call with that much money in the pot if his range for shoving is AK and QQ+, which I think it is.

That part I'm pretty confident about, it's more of a 'should I 4bet or just fold preflop' thing.. I guess I could cold-call, hope the SS shoves and then hope maximus re-shoves lighter than he would if I 4bet.. But meh.

fold pf or go allin with it

Do you mean 4bet shove? If you just mean 'don't fold if you 4bet' then thanks, I know that ;p I want to know wether I should fold or get it in.
I really want a little more of an indepth answer than 'allin or fold'..

is calling pre so bad here? Why not try to get the fish to call here with hands you dominate instead of pushing him out of the pot. Normally i would 4-bet or fold to a raise and a reraise but i think a good case can be made for calling here since if you call the fish will likely come along and make big mistakes post flop.

edit: nevermind did not see that the open raiser was so short

On May 04 2008 06:26 lachlan wrote: can someone explain it again? it's a big part of poker and i really want to learn about it

it's just math.. you make it sound as if "flipping" is a terrible thing, but it's actually very profitable when there is tons of dead money in the pot

in this scenario TianYuan needs to win 36.5% of the time to break even on his call, and against a range of QQ+/AK he wins 38.8% of the time so given this read it is profitable to call

the reason why it feels so wrong (it feels wrong to me too) is because humans are terrible at estimating probabilities

especially when we're confronted with situations where we have to lay odds (risking like $100 to gain $1 for example, almost no one wants to ever do this even if it's very profitable)

that's why I try to use logic and not my crappy intuition to guide my play


edit: and yeah about the hand itself i think it's a very close play and u should do it because giving action is good if it doesn't cost you any EV

Another thing to consider is if you dont have AK in your cold 4bet range people arent gonna stack off with QQ when you have AA,KK.

thanks jelle! i guess that 2% or so difference in +EV all adds up