[400nl] River decision 200 BB deep

Hey folks, I ran into some deep stack play today. I viewed the villain as solidish regularish player over a couple of hundred hands with him before, but then he called a sizable reraise ($70) 120 BB deep with 53s after opening it UTG and I somehow stopped giving him much credit overall. My image (today) has been very solidish regularish 20/15/2.5 type game, even though the hands I had of him might be from earlier sessions when I've ran around 25/20, so there's a chance he's viewing me as slightly more semi-laggish type.

He's been running 27/20/1.7 this far.

In addition, as you could probably deduct from the 53s hand, we had been doing some heavyish 3-betting here, but the hands often ended without a showdown. Here I simply wanted to vary my play and didn't feel like flipping for two stacks. I probably 3-bet this around 95% of the time preflop (for all you iPoker regs back there, heheh).

So how big of a bet should I go for here and what's my line, should I get checkraised? Gimmey gimmey

Submitted by : Muhweli

GAME #964691009: Texas Hold'em NL $2.00/$4.00 2008-05-03 19:23:38
Table "Turbo" Slipper Orchid
Seat 1: DergiXxLBodrey ($1,245.54 in chips)
Seat 5: Wishboner ($762.00 in chips)
Seat 6: Larsanmann ($496.80 in chips)
Seat 8: cefou033 ($54.00 in chips)
Seat 10: ttr52150393 ($253.00 in chips) DEALER
DergiXxLBodrey: Post SB $2.00
Wishboner : Post BB $4.00

Holecards
Dealt to Wishboner
Larsanmann: Call $4.00
cefou033: Fold
ttr52150393: Call $4.00
DergiXxLBodrey: Raise $24.00
Wishboner : Call $22.00
Larsanmann: Fold
ttr52150393: Fold

Flop (Pot : $60.00)

   
DergiXxLBodrey: Bet $44.00
Wishboner : Raise $122.00
DergiXxLBodrey: Call $78.00

Turn (Pot : $304.00)

   
DergiXxLBodrey: Check
Wishboner : Check

River (Pot : $304.00)

   
DergiXxLBodrey: Check
Wishboner : Bets $???

a bet of $272 or $284 are your only options

$274

Thanks for providing such solid reasoning.

Think for the amount he will assume is a bluff with the game flow.

you absolutely have to 3-bet this preflop against described opponent. As played id proably make it pretty big because turn went checkcheck and that will make him more inclined to call with a wider range of spades here. Make it like $250

bet $100/call shove.

Okay, so thus far:
Line 1: Bet around $250 -> Fold to shove because he isn't bluffing here(?)
Line 2: Bet around $100 -> Call a shove because it induces a bluff more often(?)

I'd like some more discussion on these possibilities, seeing as how they're probably the only ones.

So Line 1 vs Line 2 - FIGHT!!

I dont think he bluffs here like ever if you bet 100, so make it like 250~ .

On May 04 2008 12:12 EvilSky wrote: I dont think he bluffs here like ever if you bet 100, so make it like 250~ .

Question. Why wouldn't he bluff if I bet $100? That line essentially represents something like a moderate spade (9s, Js) value-betting/milking and tells him "I don't have As" which is all the more reason for him to bluff check-raise.

Well I think if he wanted to bluff he would have bet the river and since he didnt he probably has a lower FD and wont turn it into a bluff often. And anyways I think if you want to make it look like a bluff you should bet bigger .

Well for all he knows, before betting $100 on the river, he doesn't have too much idea on what I have. A bet of $100 on the river would give him false information on the strength of my holdings, then inducing a bluff, because if he doesn't have a moderate to big spade, he can't call the $100 really, but he can deduct that I don't have the As and he should have a decent FE representing that here. In addition, his river lead bluff would get snapped off by a lot of spades (as would his valuebet with As too of course), so imo it makes less sense to bluff there with a donkbet.

Bigger bet represents a bigger spade (which I have here), which he might or might not interpret as a bluff, but might snap it off with a random spade. So I either get $250 extra value or lose $250 - with the $100 bet I either get $100 extra value (the times he calls), $600 extra value (the times he bluff shoves) and lose $600 when he valueshoves the nuts).

So the question is whether I think he'll bluffshove a worse hand more often over the $100 combined with the times he calls the $100 to make it more +EV than betfolding $250 or similar.

Let's mark the frequency he has the ace of spades with A, the frequency he folds with F, the frequency he has air and bluffs with B and the frequency he calls with worse hand with C and do some EV calcs, can someone confirm these are correct? So (A+F+C+B) = 100%

EV250 = $304 * F + ($304+$250) * C - $250 * B - $250 * A
EV100 = $304 * F + ($304+$100) * C + $904 * B - $600 * A

The frequency he has A here is the same in both cases, let's say he has ace... 20% of time.
In the first scenario, I think he bluffs like... perhaps something like 0% of the time. Second one... tough to say - let's try 30%. Which deducts this to:

EV250 = $304 * F + ($304+$250) * C - $50 (80% left)
EV100 = $304 * F + ($304+$100) * C + $151 (50% left)

We're left with folding frequency and calling frequency. Sort of tough to estimate those, but I'd imagine he folds like 60% of the time for first one (60/80 that is) and maybe like 30% (30/50) for the second time? And calls the rest, henceforth leaving us with:

EV250 = $304 * 60% + ($304+$250) * 20% - $50 = $182.4 + $110.8 - $50 = +$242.2
EV100 = $304 * 30% + ($304+$100) * 20% + $151 = $91.2 + $80.8 + $151 = +$323.0

Obviously all these numbers are outta my ass, I would like to hear ideas and adjustments as well as corrections to my calculations.

Sick, I was making the longest reply of my life and got the too many connections error. fuck.

Bet $250 and fold to a shove, he's never bluffing when he c/r's

also I flat on the Flop more often than raise

I havent really read every fancy calculation or anything but in my experience ipoker plays really passively so he will never ever turn a small spade into a bluff if you bet $100. I also highly doubt he will bluffshove a $100 without a spade, i just dont give a 2/4 reg credit for doing that. If i bet $100 I wouldnt be happy about calling a shove. I think you just lose value since he will probably crycall a big bet with a wide range of hands you beat.

3 bet pre, get money in :D

Myea, bet like $250 makes the hand easier to play for sure and that alone might be enough incentive on betting that much.

I infact bet $100 here and called a shove.