Quick 10/20 hand

lol @ pussying out on the turn

snapcall turn.

idea was that the flop call shows a lot of strength on such a dry board and opponent is supposed to shut down

but yeah i guess realistically that doesn't happen :[

You called a flop 3bet hoping that they shut down on the turn?

I hope you don't do that often.

On May 02 2008 03:33 FrEaK[S.sIR] wrote: You called a flop 3bet hoping that they shut down on the turn? I hope you don't do that often.

should work vs anyone with any sense, K9 is the bottom of my range there

On May 01 2008 21:49 NMcNasty wrote: idea was that the flop call shows a lot of strength on such a dry board and opponent is supposed to shut down but yeah i guess realistically that doesn't happen :[

yeah, "supposed to" is the operative phrase here. in reality people just keep throwing stacks at you in big bluffs. i'd either flat the flop or i'd be guaranteed to get allin with this hand. that said, i vastly prefer to flat the flop in general. if i don't flat the flop with K9, how do i get away with floating? and i want to float A LOT here bvb

On May 02 2008 10:37 NMcNasty wrote: Show nested quote + On May 02 2008 03:33 FrEaK[S.sIR] wrote: You called a flop 3bet hoping that they shut down on the turn? I hope you don't do that often. should work vs anyone with any sense, K9 is the bottom of my range there

I just don't get why you're calling with a made hand hoping that people don't put any more money in the pot. Not after the pot is huge anyway. That seems like something reserved for draws/bluffs. You call with your made hand because you think it's good, not because you think no more money is going in. Am I missing something?

Well, whatever I write here should be completely obvious anyway...

What do you think about this whole situation?

idea is that the initial flop raise looks weak, but flat-calling the flop 3bet looks extremely strong.

The flop is so dry I think random players are 3 betting it with air a lot here (which is why I think there's a lot of value in raising flop), but at the same time they wont risk their entire stack with air very often (but yeah i could be wrong with this second part).

First - leveling games suck. But lets do some math.

Lets say our opponent has 3/4 air and 1/4 overpair/set. We call and assume he check folds turn without a hand and pushes rest. (Small problem is that some tricky morons will check turn here with a good hand - thats what you get for getting into leveling games - we push turn, when he checks and we stack off anyway, but thats not the point)

Problem is we can assume the board will help his hand enough to push turn at least - say - 15% of the time (J,Q,T for TP/straith draw, some backdoor flush or something else even; I say we autocall A as ppl will overbluff it) , which actually lowers our EV compared to just pushing and winning the hand. And that doesnt even take into consideration the 5 outs we probably have anyway. So 60% of the time we win 1500$, 40% we are at EV=0. If we had just pushed 1500$ on top we would win the 1500$ 75% of the time and have like 15% equity for the double pot.

Well.. it turns out that if our assumptions are correct, that calling IS slightly better than pushing all in. But if we lose this leveling game we are really fucked.

Point is we have a weak level-based argument that we risk less to win the pot (as checking it down doesnt really seem like a good idea), but actually sacrifice significant equity by giving him a chance to improve on turn and folding our own equity in the hand which will definitely be at least 15% on flop against his value range.
Big pot = push/fold with dynamic hands. With static hands we obv prefer call/call to push (think AA2r board with A3)

And whats more important in this hand is.. Why do you raise the flop if youre not targeting all in by the river?

Again, I'm raising flop because I expect small reraises with air or loose flop calls from relative unknowns. If your hand is ahead 90% of the time, isn't it good enough to raise if thats what u expect? I know just calling flop has been standard for a long time, but it seems like as games are becoming more and more aggressive raising is becoming better. I could be wrong though thats why im posting.

So then obviously folding turn is out of the question, so you have one of three choices:

1 call flop, call turn
2 call flop, fold turn
3 shove (or committing raise) on flop

Seems like everyone hates option 2 (and I don't like it much either) even though I think it should be best against a good thinking opponent. All I'm really asking is which one is best or if I'm way off about the value of raising flop to begin with.

Depends on how you split your ranges really.

If there is an incentive to call his 3bet, I dont see why there isnt one to call the flop.

If theres a chance you make a mistake on turn, you should definitely shove flop. If he will push a good percent of semibluffs on turn with his strong hands and check fold rest, there is still a good reason to just push it in, as calling allows him to increase his equity quite a lot.

So basically, if we call its to let him make a mistake. If K9 is the worst part of our calling range, then by folding it on turn we dont let him gain anything. But if its a large part of our range there, we cant really fold it. And why would we have K9o as the worst hand in our range there... If this is true, if he checks turn, we must check it back along with some better hands for protection, giving him one more free card (although it wont be profitable for him to spike a queen against a range of 99/AA/K9 for example). If we push turn when he checks, we risk leveling ourselves and its in no way better than just shoving.

So, my take is - if you know you have a solid range of strong hands you call that 4bet with, you can call K9 on flop and fold it on turn or check it down along with some nut hands of your range). If you play a leveling game though, you might lose a lot of equity.

snap fold flop vs this opponent.

I highly doubt hes making a move on you here on such a dry board in games above his head, and is more likely fast playing a big hand in hopes that you dont believe him due to the unlikelyhood that he has a real hand.

Also, flat call flop vs this opponent, he plays v straightforward postflop. -_-

On May 02 2008 17:54 adam001 wrote: snap fold flop vs this opponent. I highly doubt hes making a move on you here on such a dry board in games above his head, and is more likely fast playing a big hand in hopes that you dont believe him due to the unlikelyhood that he has a real hand. Also, flat call flop vs this opponent, he plays v straightforward postflop. -_-

If you fold turn then calling flop is an even bigger mistake.

If you call in this spot only expecting him to continue with better, it is the same as turngin your hand into a bluff. Bad poker.

i dont mind this, a lot of people think you're full of shit when you're raising a dry flop and will 3-bet with air

(and they will give up air on turn usually, your hand looks strong)

It seems that if your hope is that they give up, calling is a better play as a float or a hand in which you plan to bluff them off of on a later street. Not a made hand. If you do it with a made hand, then your hand is merely a bluff using the 9 as a blocker(for whatever reason).

If you plan to either fold to further action on a later street or bluff on a later street, your hand is a bluff and nothing more. It might as well be bottom pair. If you ever think your hand is good here then you should be shoving flop as it represents significantly less strength than calling and you can expect a call from a weaker top pair. If you don't think it's often good here then you shouldn't be calling to begin with. If you call here with this hand expecting to fold to any action, you should be calling with virtually any two cards because when you call you essentially turn your hand into a bluff or a bluff catcher. Since you are asking whether or not you should call a turn shove, you can not reliably bluff catch, so your hand is garbage. Unless you were thinking that you were going to check down 2 streets? I rarely call hoping I'll check down 2 streets. If my hand is so weak for me to think that I can only call to check 2 streets, I am better off shoving, representing something much stronger and typically having 5 outs when called.

Myth mentioned that he wants to do this because he wants to float fairly often here. But then he understands that he is merely balancing his floating range with a range that actually beats a 3betting range and is primarily a bluff catcher. If you can't bluff catch, you can't call.

I really don't know what you're arguing beyond this. If you can't call further streets on this board, seeing as there are virtually no draws, your flop call was atrocious.

you can float here because that looks really strong and 3bets with air on dry flops are becoming more and more common nowadays

myth mentioning he floats here implies people give up on turn. GIVE UP. being key words. if myth floats here and they push the turn because you say they will continue their air range then he's stuck with his float and has to fold the turn that hardly sounds logical.

i like a float because i do think people give up the turn, i also like a call with K9 on the flop for the same reason, and i dont think you have to call the turn because you called the flop at all.

I never said you had to call flop because you called turn. I was implying that asking about the hand to begin with with is silly.

You either called to float, in which this is an obvious fold, or you're aren't, in which this is a snap call. The fact that your hand is K9 makes no difference because you're planning to take it away on a future street. McNasty seems to be stuck between "I did this because my hand was K9" and "I did this because I wanted to take it away later". Decide which is which before you call the flop. If you haven't decided whether or not you're calling to float or calling because you think you have the best hand, you shouldn't be calling at all. If you've already made up your mind, then why are you asking the us to begin with? You know the player better than we do. Is the play okay? Um...depends on the player.

Also, a few other things. Would you flat a hand better than a pair of 9s as well? Or would you stick it in? If you don't flat hands better than a pair of 9s, then your flatting/floating range is extremely transparent. Another thing is, when you raised the flop, what did you expect to get called/action from? With the 2 other cards being so low, I don't know what you're expecting to get action from besides complete air. If you expected to get action from complete air, then your decision should be relatively easy because this player is spewing so much in the small blind. I'd be more inclined to give believe this was a decision on a 982 board than a 923 board, as I believe there is a greater spectrum of hands that you'd want to call/call against(JT being a coinflip, T7, JQ, ect.). With the board being what it is though, the decision should either be an easy float or an easy call down. If you haven't decided yet, don't call the flop.

I just don't see the point of raising at all if you don't know where you stand with a fairly good made hand when you do so. What were you going to do if he called you? Bet call the turn? Check turn and call river? Nothing really seems like a good option after you've chosen to make the pot big. Make your decision before you raise.

Ok, I'm rambling now.

I don't think you have to make ur decision before you raise. If opponent is bluff 3-betting flop very frequently, that should be all the information you need to know that both the initial flop raise was correct, and *at least* calling flop when it comes back to you is correct. I think people are making the fallacy of assumming that when you avoid difficult spots (like turn and flop 3 bet decision) you somehow gain value. If you want to say that the flop raise is bad, you have to argue that its because people aren't 3 betting with air very often, not because it makes ur turn decision hard. The turn is a seperate question, all your asking yourself is, "do I have enough equity to call?". Also your turn decision is potentially very difficult, you can't calculate your equity for every turn card on the flop in just a few seconds. An opponent might bluff any overcard as a scare card, but also might only bet overs they hit. I thought the 7c was fairly close vs a tight player because even though they might shut down with complete air, they still might lean toward a shove if they picked up a flush draw. Also K9 isn't a float, you've got TPGK and have plenty of showdown value, and I could easily decide to check behind or minbet turn. Another issue is any reads you can get with timing tells and bet sizing. In this case my opponent shoved for pot fairly quickly, usually a player you assume to be slightly below 5/10 reg level isn't going to be potting with air without some deliberation.

One thing to note it, we should be doing those calculations before making those plays.