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UFC FN 79: Henderson vs. Masvidal

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PuertoRican   United States. Nov 24 2015 07:25. Posts 13029

Date: Saturday, November 28th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 11:00 LP.net / 2am PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 14:00 LP.net / 5am PST / 8am EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Benson Henderson (22-5) vs. Jorge Masvidal (29-9) (Welterweight)
Dong Hyun Kim (20-3-1) vs. Dominic Waters (9-3) (Welterweight)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (14-5) vs. Alberto Mina (11-0) (Welterweight)
Doo Ho Choi (12-1) vs. Sam Sicilia (15-5) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Yui Chul Nam (18-5-1) vs. Mike de la Torre (13-5) (Featherweight)
Tae Hyun Bang (17-9) vs. Leo Kuntz (17-2-1) (Lightweight)
Dongi Yang (12-3) vs. Jake Collier (9-2) (Middleweight)
Seo Hee Ham (15-6) vs. Cortney Casey (4-2) (Women's Strawweight)
Yao Zhikui (2-2) vs. Fredy Serrano (2-0) (Flyweight)
Ning Guangyou (5-2-1) vs. Marco Beltran (6-3) (Bantamweight)
Dominique Steele (13-6) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (13-6-3) (Welterweight)

Other

- A welterweight bout between former WEC and UFC Lightweight champion Benson Henderson and former top contender Thiago Alves was expected to headline the event. However on November 14, Alves pulled out the bout due to a broken rib and was replaced by Jorge Masvidal, who was originally scheduled to face Dong Hyun Kim. Kim is now expected to face Dominic Waters.
- A heavyweight bout between the 2006 Pride Open-Weight Grand Prix champion and 2012 K-1 World Grand Prix champion Mirko Filipovic and Anthony Hamilton was expected to serve as the co-main event. However on November 10, Filipovic abruptly announced his retirement, citing a shoulder injury as the main reason and also a series of recurring injuries and other effects of aging. Subsequently on the following day, UFC officials confirmed that Filipovic had in fact failed a drug test. The U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) notified both Mirko Cro Cop and the UFC that he has been provisionally suspended due to a potential Anti-Doping Policy violation. The substance found in Filipovic's system was not revealed. Promotion officials also announced that Hamilton had been removed from the card and will be booked for a new bout at a future event.
- Hyun Gyu Lim was expected to face Dominique Steele at the event. However, Lim pulled out of the bout on November 20 and was replaced by promotional newcomer Dong Hyun Kim.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 24 2015 07:35. Posts 13029

First impression of the match-ups:

• Henderson > Masvidal (If this was a 3-round fight, I'd say Masvidal has a chance, but it's a 5-round fight. Even in a 3-round fight, Masvidal brain-farts and loses fights he is easily winning, which has always been his problem.)
• Kim > Waters (Waters is fucking terrible against any decent fighter. Kim should rape this fucker, eZ pZ.)
• Akiyama vs. Mina (dunno. iirc, Mina is a legit prospect, but I've been so busy lately that I forgot how he fights and stuff.)
• Choi > Sicilia
• Nam > Torre (Should be a close and competitive fight.)
• Bang vs. Kuntz (dunno. both aren't good.)
• Yang vs. Collier (dunno)
• Hamderlei Silva > Casey (Casey is more well-rounded and will be much taller, but Hamderlei is a tough chick who is usually aggressive and has the hometown advantage. Should be a good fight either way.)
• Zhikui vs. Serrano (dunno)
• Guangyou vs. Beltran (dunno)
• Steele vs. Kim (dunno)

Rekrul is a newb 

Minsk   United States. Nov 24 2015 16:35. Posts 1558

I don't see any edges for Masvidal at all. I think theres value on Henderson. If he loses, its probably something with the trip to Asia.


PuertoRican   United States. Nov 24 2015 17:19. Posts 13029


  On November 24 2015 15:35 Minsk wrote:
I don't see any edges for Masvidal at all. I think theres value on Henderson. If he loses, its probably something with the trip to Asia.



I was originally pretty harsh on Masvidal when I said he doesn't have much of a chance. After thinking more about it, I still favor Henderson to win, but I see a lot more value in Masvidal now.

Masvidal won't get KO/TKO'ed by Henderson, and while Henderson has a black belt in BJJ, I think Masvidal getting subbed here is a very low percentage. Also, Benson has much lower striking output than Masvidal, and Masvidal has good TDD and movement.

Not that you're doing it, but a good thing not to do is compare Masvidal to Brandon Thatch. They're both strikers, but very different in their approach to MMA.

Rekrul is a newb 

Minsk   United States. Nov 24 2015 22:28. Posts 1558

I just think henderson is better at every aspect, except maybe close quarter strikes which he never stays in by choice anyways. I just think Masvidal has no edge, like Urijah Faber vs Frankie Edgar. I think hes a little slower, little less reactive, little worse cardio, little worse mentality, and I was shocked to see Urijah Faber 4.5:1 vs Frankier Edgar, I was like ""Urijah Faber isn't 5x worse a fighter,,, but he had no edge, its by definition very hard to win without an edge" so here I feel its pretty much the same situation, except the odds are better.


PuertoRican   United States. Nov 25 2015 01:40. Posts 13029




  On November 24 2015 21:28 Minsk wrote:
I just think henderson is better at every aspect, except maybe close quarter strikes which he never stays in by choice anyways. I just think Masvidal has no edge, like Urijah Faber vs Frankie Edgar. I think hes a little slower, little less reactive, little worse cardio, little worse mentality, and I was shocked to see Urijah Faber 4.5:1 vs Frankier Edgar, I was like ""Urijah Faber isn't 5x worse a fighter,,, but he had no edge, its by definition very hard to win without an edge" so here I feel its pretty much the same situation, except the odds are better.



Faber vs. Edgar isn't the same as Benson vs. Masvidal.

Faber and Edgar's style is almost identical, but Edgar is literally better in every area of MMA than Faber.

With Benson and Masvidal, their styles aren't alike, and Benson isn't better than Masvidal in every area.

Benson:

- Ability to always look busy even when he's not.
- Wrestling advantage.
- BJJ advantage.
- Cardio advantage***. Masvidal doesn't really gas-out, it's that he isn't consistent with his striking output, whereas Benson can keep the same fighting pace (movement, wrestling, striking) forever. Masvidal's movement will never slow down, just his striking output.
- Benson is half Korean, and has a Korean word tattooed on his arm, so he'll have the advantage if the fight was a close decision.

Masvidal

- Tends to go inactive and basically star at his opponent while he moves around the octagon, which judges pick up very easily.
- Better boxing + kickboxing.
- Better hand speed and foot movement.
- Throws more strikes than Benson by a good amount.
- Has better striking defense.
- Good, but not elite, take down defense.


I originally thought this fight was going to a decision, and I still think the same; however, I think Masvidal has a better shot at winning than I originally thought. Also, Benson isn't elite with his TDD, he's been taken down in several UFC fights, which you can see here: http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Benson-Henderson

Rekrul is a newb 

Minsk   United States. Nov 25 2015 01:47. Posts 1558

Maybe I'm over-rating Bensons boxing,speed,and movement after the Thatch fight. I definitely didn't agree with

- Better boxing + kickboxing.
- Better hand speed and foot movement.

if you feel confident that I'm wrong on that, then I would pick Masvidal. Would like to hear other peopls thoughts on specifically those two points. If I'm wrong on those points then I would be super happy with Masvidal.

I also expect Benson to throw >= strikes than Masvidal, although I can believe historically Masvidal throws more strikes.

 Last edit: 25/11/2015 01:50

soberstone   United States. Nov 25 2015 01:51. Posts 2662

Masvidal v Henderson - Pickem.. If you don't see any edges, maybe start with his hands, which are about 10x better than Benson's. Benson is a better point fighter for sure but Masvidal is amazingly well rounded and might benefit from going to 170 even more than Benson. I might bet Masvidal if the odds get a little wider and/or I re-study the fight since this is all off memory, but it's tough to bet against Benson given how good he is at winning high-level contests without even hurting his opponents. I'd be surprised if either guy found an easy finish and mildly surprised if either guy found a finish at all. This should be a super technical battle with the winner being whoever fights their fight. If its exciting, I favor Jorge, if its a deliberate pace with extended portions of grappling and distance striking, I favor Benson.

Kim > Waters - Total squash match, Kim wins unless a freak KO or injury occurs, injury probably being just as likely. Water simply shouldn't be able to deal with Kim's grappling if Kim even feels the needs to grapple, and hes outmatched big time physically and athletically.

Akiyama > Mina - No clue why there is any hype on this guy, looked terrible to me, but maybe I'm missing something. Probably should of held off on the bet but I just didn't see anything in his game that is a real threat to Akiyama, who isn't a world beater but hes an experienced, well-rounded Judoka who knows how to fight 3 rounds with a layered gameplan.

Choi > Sicilia - Choi is a badass, I'll wait to see him beat Sicilia before totally buying the hype but he's got power for days and just seems to have a great demeanor and fighting instinct. I love what I've seen but he hasn't fought anyone good yet besides some decent past their prime Japanese legends. Sicilia is your typical jack of all trades, master of none. He has some heavy hands and decent wrestling/top game which is probably his path to victory if any.

Casey > Ham - Pretty much take Rican's breakdown, flip it around, and that's how I feel about the fight. This is Casey's first UFC fight at 115 that she didn't have to cut weight for on 2 weeks notice, and I thought she performed well
against JoJo given those circumstances. She hits hard, is more technical than she showed in her debut, but her fight IQ is absolutely questionable. She pulls guard and goes for flying armbar type shit sometimes. Ham is below average but not horrible at anything, undersized, but competent for a WMMA chick at every discipline. I haven't seen most of her tape but shes a competant submission grappler based on her record. With that said, she has virtually no way to finish the fight and is at a serious athletic disadvantage, so her path to victory is probably gonna be by being more mentally focused and frustrating and and out-pointing and gameplanning Casey. I find that to be a low probability personally. I think the UFC likes Casey and is giving her a girl with a reputable record that she should beat fairly easily.

Serrano > Zhikuoi - This will be an exciting fight. Freddy Serrano could be a flyweight version of Yoel Romero (old, juiced, Olympic wrestler, creative, unorthodox, athletic as shit, also very green) Keep an eye on him. He could also end up totally sucking but I think the line has tightened unnecessarily, I think it opened correctly. Zhikuoi is flat footed, marches forward, punches in decent combination with decent power, but is at a huge athletic disadvantage and has no zero cage-cutting footwork (to this point, but he is still a young improving fighter). His path to victory involves Serrano being an underachiever and him just landing more shots and outworking Serrano in the portions of the fight spent in the pocket.

Bang > Kuntz - Not confident, could be exciting, could be boring. I'm not sure what to make of Kuntz since there is limited footage available on him. He got mauled in his debut but showed good sub D and a good chin, but we didn't get to see his offensive game since he was getting pressured the whole time by a high-level Dagastani Sambo fighter (Makachev). Bang likes to brawl and has heavy hands, average grappling, and is notoriously tough to finish. The fact that he just turned 32 and got rocked by Jon Tuck and then submitted in his last fight while showing an iron jaw for his entire career makes me hesitant to agree that he he should be a substantial favorite, especially since Kuntz needs to win to keep his roster spot, trains at ATT, and is an experienced fighter that has taken relatively no damage. Still, Bang is the righteous favorite since he is more dangerous, should be able to keep it standing, and presumably has a homecrowd advantage being that he is from Seoul.

Not sure about the rest yet.

+ Show Spoiler +


 Last edit: 25/11/2015 03:44

iakim322   United States. Nov 25 2015 05:12. Posts 1335


  On November 25 2015 00:47 Minsk wrote:
Maybe I'm over-rating Bensons boxing,speed,and movement after the Thatch fight. I definitely didn't agree with

- Better boxing + kickboxing.
- Better hand speed and foot movement.

if you feel confident that I'm wrong on that, then I would pick Masvidal. Would like to hear other peopls thoughts on specifically those two points. If I'm wrong on those points then I would be super happy with Masvidal.

I also expect Benson to throw >= strikes than Masvidal, although I can believe historically Masvidal throws more strikes.



I don't have a strong opinion on the fight (prob a pass for me because I generally hate betting on Benson fights) but to say Benson has better boxing and just boxing alone is just so wrong. It's a credit to his really good leg kicks and generally pretty good fight IQ that his standup wasn't picked apart more. Forget which fight it was but he knew his boxing wasn't up to par to the rest of his skills and made a big deal about having trained it more for the upcoming fight in one of those preview shows. Then the fight comes and his 'revamped' boxing was him throwing out incredibly weak looking triple jabs from leg kicking range. So it was Benson throwing out a series of three, not full extension jabs into the air in front of his opponent then circling around more to look for his leg kick. So yeah....boxing...not so much. Seemed to have improved a little in his last fight but Thatch has shown himself to have some pretty poor fight IQ and some glaring holes. I would agree that Benson has some underrated, better foot movement though


iakim322   United States. Nov 25 2015 05:22. Posts 1335


  On November 25 2015 00:51 soberstone wrote:

Casey > Ham - Pretty much take Rican's breakdown, flip it around, and that's how I feel about the fight. This is Casey's first UFC fight at 115 that she didn't have to cut weight for on 2 weeks notice, and I thought she performed well
against JoJo given those circumstances. She hits hard, is more technical than she showed in her debut, but her fight IQ is absolutely questionable. She pulls guard and goes for flying armbar type shit sometimes. Ham is below average but not horrible at anything, undersized, but competent for a WMMA chick at every discipline. I haven't seen most of her tape but shes a competant submission grappler based on her record. With that said, she has virtually no way to finish the fight and is at a serious athletic disadvantage, so her path to victory is probably gonna be by being more mentally focused and frustrating and and out-pointing and gameplanning Casey. I find that to be a low probability personally. I think the UFC likes Casey and is giving her a girl with a reputable record that she should beat fairly easily.




I really like Casey in this spot too although obv small sample size of watching both. I agree with thinking that the UFC is giving her a good spot but more so, heavily agree that if she fights even a half decent fight, Ham should be physically outmatched too hard. Ham is small even for 115 and just don't think she hits hard enough to dictate how aggressive Casey can be


alejandicto   . Nov 25 2015 06:07. Posts 865

Mina is terrible, very bad striking and poor cardio. Only impresive is how he has 11 wins no loses and every win by finalization.

For this event I am only betting a parlay Benson+Kim

 Last edit: 25/11/2015 18:34

Minsk   United States. Nov 25 2015 20:51. Posts 1558

I've been too lazy to identify any of the asian fighters, as their names are simply too hard to identify.

Honestly a little sick with the way the world uses names in general. Why would there possibly be 2 people with "Soldier of God" and "El Cucuy" nicknames. Fucking branding is destroying the uniqueness of names. Meaning that people are harder to identify, blocking the names primary function.

 Last edit: 26/11/2015 00:41

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 26 2015 07:10. Posts 13029


Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 26/11/2015 20:47

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 27 2015 08:55. Posts 13029






Benson Henderson (170) vs. Jorge Masvidal (170)
Dong Hyun Kim (171) vs. Dominic Waters (170)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (170) vs. Alberto Mina (171)
Doo Ho Choi (146) vs. Sam Sicilia (146)
Jake Collier (185) vs. Dongi Yang (186)
Yui Chul Nam (146) vs. Mike De La Torre (146)
Tae Hyun Bang (156) vs. Leo Kuntz (156)
Cortney Casey (116) vs. Seo Hee Ham (115)
Fredy Serrano (125) vs. Yao Zhikui (126)
Marco Beltran (136) vs. Ning Guangyou (134)
“Maestro” Dong Hyun Kim (170) vs. Dominique Steele (171)

----------

In another thread:

"Tae Hyun Bang said he's going for the KO in the 1st round; he said he has some injuries."

Bang is usually a 1-round fighter anyway, but if he's battling injuries, the fight could suck if it goes out of the 1st round. Leo Kuntz sucks, but he's a finisher, and Bang isn't anything special when he's at 100%.

----------

Sam Sicilia looked the best he ever has during the weigh-in.

At age 40, Sexyama looks like he's mixing TRT shots with his sake bombs.

Yang and Stun Gun Kim looked softer than usual. Yang is known as The Ox, and he didn't look like an ox during the weigh-in.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 28/11/2015 02:02

TianYuan    Korea (South). Nov 28 2015 03:05. Posts 6817

I think i saw an interview somewhere where dhk said he was trying a new diet or something for this camp, maybe that's why?

Also, just me or did Bang walk a little funny?

Hm.. Off-suite socks.. 

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 28 2015 03:27. Posts 13029


  On November 28 2015 02:05 TianYuan wrote:
I think i saw an interview somewhere where dhk said he was trying a new diet or something for this camp, maybe that's why?

Also, just me or did Bang walk a little funny?



In my post above yours, I mentioned that Bang said he's injured. It's the reason why his money line opened at -180, and is currently +215.

Nobody knows what his injury is, and how bad it is.

EDIT: Bang just went to +420 on 5dimes. Money Line!

He must be really fucked up.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 28/11/2015 03:30

soberstone   United States. Nov 28 2015 04:00. Posts 2662

Final bets

Masvidal > Henderson SU 220 $100.00
Akiyama > Mina SU -185 $185.00
Akiyama + Choi + Sanchez + Serrano PL 515 $25.00
Kim + Sanchez PL -115 $250.00
Kim + Serrano PL -134 $134.35


iakim322   United States. Nov 28 2015 04:33. Posts 1335

A little surprised that Masvidal's frame looks significantly bigger next to Henderson even knowing that he was going to be the bigger fighter but even so, Benson looks really solid at 170. Why did he need a towel though? A perennial 155'er going up to 170 needing a towel to weigh in seems a little odd.

Didn't think DHK looked softer than usual. If anything I thought he looked just a little slimmer than usual is all


TianYuan    Korea (South). Nov 28 2015 08:36. Posts 6817


  On November 28 2015 02:27 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +



In my post above yours, I mentioned that Bang said he's injured. It's the reason why his money line opened at -180, and is currently +215.

Nobody knows what his injury is, and how bad it is.

EDIT: Bang just went to +420 on 5dimes. Money Line!

He must be really fucked up.

Yeah that's why I noticed it (your post), otherwise I wouldn't have thought anything of it, just would have assumed he stumbled or something.

Sidenote: if I'm interested in starting to bet on MMA, and pinnacle isn't an option, what's the second best sportsbook - 5dimes?

Hm.. Off-suite socks..Last edit: 28/11/2015 08:37

PuertoRican   United States. Nov 28 2015 08:55. Posts 13029


  On November 28 2015 07:36 TianYuan wrote:
Show nested quote +


Yeah that's why I noticed it (your post), otherwise I wouldn't have thought anything of it, just would have assumed he stumbled or something.

Sidenote: if I'm interested in starting to bet on MMA, and pinnacle isn't an option, what's the second best sportsbook - 5dimes?



5dimes is the best for straight money line bets and prop bets, and they usually get the lines before all of the other major bookies.

Bookmaker is the best for live betting. Although, Bookmaker changed its live betting feature earlier this year. Not sure if it's back to "normal" yet.

Rekrul is a newb 

 
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