UFC FN 78: Magny vs. Gastelum

Date: Saturday, November 21st
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 00:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Neil Magny (16-4) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (11-1) (Welterweight)
Ricardo Lamas (15-4) vs. Diego Sanchez (25-7) (Featherweight)
Jussier Formiga (18-3) vs. Henry Cejudo (9-0) (Flyweight)
Erick Montano (6-3) vs. Enrique Marin (8-2) (TUF Latin America 2: Welterweight Final)
Enrique Barzola (10-2-1) vs. Horacio Gutierrez (2-1) (TUF Latin America 2: Lightweight Final)
Efrain Escudero (24-9) vs. Leandro Silva (18-3-1) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Erik Perez (14-6) vs. Taylor Lapilus (10-1) (Bantamweight)
Hector Urbina (17-8-1) vs. Bartosz Fabinski (12-2) (Welterweight)
Scott Jorgensen (15-11) vs. Alejandro Perez (15-6) (Bantamweight)
Gabriel Benitez (18-4) vs. Andre Fili (14-3) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Vernon Ramos (3-0) vs. Alvaro Herrera (8-3) (Welterweight)
Cezar Arzamendia (7-1) vs. Marco Polo Reyes (3-1) (Lightweight)
Valmir Lazaro (13-3) vs. Michel Prazeres (18-2) (Lightweight)

Other

- A welterweight bout between Matt Brown and Kelvin Gastelum was expected to serve as the event headliner. However, on November 2, Brown withdrew from the fight due to an ankle injury suffered in training. He was replaced by Neil Magny.
- Damian Stasiak was expected to face Erik Perez at this event. However, Stasiak was removed from the bout and replaced by Taylor Lapilus.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Gastelum > Magny
• Lamas > Sanchez
• Cejudo > Formiga
• Silva > Escudero
• Lapilus > Perez
• Urbina vs. Fabinski (dunno)
• Jorgensen vs. Perez (dunno, but Jorgensen is 1-5 in his last 6 UFC fights. That 1 win was against Danny Martinez, who was 0-3 in the UFC until he used his wrestling to beat a professional surfer turned MMA fighter in Richie Vaculik by decision yesterday at UFC 193.)
• Benitez > Fili
• Prazeres > Lazaro
• Montano vs. Marin (dunno)
• Ramos vs. Herrera (dunno)

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This card is a steaming pile of shit... It's full of random Mexicans and Mexican-American fighters that nobody gives a shit about, aside from Kelvin Gastelum and Henry Cejudo to some extent.

Gastelum > Magney (Put down a 10 unit bet on Gastellum last week at -245)
Lamas > Sanchez - Odds are insanely wide and still probably playable, its very hard to see Sanchez winning, very hard
Cejudo > Formiga - Similar sentiment to the Lamas fight, but Formiga is atleast a decent fighter
Silva v Esceudero - Still dunno
Perez v Lapilus - Pickem
Fabinksi > Urbina
Jorgenson v Perez - Pickem
Fili v Benitez - Pickem
Prezeras > Lazaro
Dunno rest yet


Not sure about the rest yet. As stated this card is dog shit. I plan on studying it tonight and looking for some mis-set lines to pick at when they are released. Besides Gastellum being easy money IMO (I will def be ready to buyout if he looks terrible at weighins) I see no way to make money on this card besides just beating 5-dimes themselves. As mentioned, card is truly terrible, worse than the Smolka v Holohan card by far.

+ Show Spoiler +

On November 16 2015 17:07 soberstone wrote: Gastelum > Magney (Put down a 10 unit bet on Gastellum last week at -245) Lamas > Sanchez - Odds are insanely wide and still probably playable, its very hard to see Sanchez winning, very hard Cejudo > Formiga - Similar sentiment to the Lamas fight, but Formiga is atleast a decent fighter Not sure about the rest yet. As stated this card is dog shit. I plan on studying it tonight and looking for some mis-set lines to pick at when they are released. Besides Gastellum being easy money IMO (I will def be ready to buyout if he looks terrible at weighins) I see no way to make money on this card besides just beating 5-dimes themselves. As mentioned, card is truly terrible, worse than the Smolka v Holohan card by far. + Show Spoiler + Gastelum > Magney SU -245 $500

Pretty much my thoughts, except I'm not fully100% sure that Gastellum is such a lock.

Wrestling, aggression, strength, and the fact that Gastelum is a Spanish speaking Mexican American should give him the edge. However, Magny is always game, and I usually bet the wrong side in his fights.

Added Cejudo and Lamas parlay as well. Top 3 fights seem really straightforward. I think we don't see any surprises for once. I'll probably prop a Diego S/D (never a bad idea apparently) or the handicapped line if he looks good magically at weighin's at 45.

Really can't even bring myself to study the fodder. I just need to know if Lapilus is decent, I consistently skip his fights for some reason. Argh. Must, do, it.

Edit: NM lines were released and I somehow forgot to notify. Lame.

On November 17 2015 02:17 Minsk wrote: Show nested quote + On November 16 2015 17:07 soberstone wrote: Gastelum > Magney (Put down a 10 unit bet on Gastellum last week at -245) Lamas > Sanchez - Odds are insanely wide and still probably playable, its very hard to see Sanchez winning, very hard Cejudo > Formiga - Similar sentiment to the Lamas fight, but Formiga is atleast a decent fighter Not sure about the rest yet. As stated this card is dog shit. I plan on studying it tonight and looking for some mis-set lines to pick at when they are released. Besides Gastellum being easy money IMO (I will def be ready to buyout if he looks terrible at weighins) I see no way to make money on this card besides just beating 5-dimes themselves. As mentioned, card is truly terrible, worse than the Smolka v Holohan card by far. + Show Spoiler + Gastelum > Magney SU -245 $500 Pretty much my thoughts, except I'm not fully100% sure that Gastellum is such a lock.

Never called him a lock, but he should beat Magney's ass. Magney is game, I agree, but he doesn't have anything that should threaten Gastellum if he hasn't regressed. Magney is a flawed fighter and Gastellum should be able expose those flaws. If I here that Magney has been breathing the shitty Monterrey air and has gotten used to it for a week while Gastellum comes in over weight or on weight looking shitty, I'll certainly hedge. Good thing I'll be able to buy-out at a profit most likely under those circumstances because Magney is already up to +230.

what you guys think about the Over for lama/diego and cejudo fights???

Diego is hard to finish, and hes not a finisher himself
Cejudo has only gone to decision, Formiga is bjj guy, fight will be mostly a stand up

only play i see is cejudo lamas gastellum 3 man parlay. just went big on that at 1:1

On November 19 2015 20:14 Zadan wrote: what you guys think about the Over for lama/diego and cejudo fights??? Diego is hard to finish, and hes not a finisher himself Cejudo has only gone to decision, Formiga is bjj guy, fight will be mostly a stand up

I like u2.5 +160 for the Lamas/Sanchez fight. Sanchez hasn't fought in awhile, eats a lot of strikes, easily gets cut on his face, he's old and slow, and he's fighting at 145 lbs for the first time in his MMA career.

I think Lamas will get a submission win, with a slight possibility of Sanchez losing due to a cut, but the latter is less likely in this fight cuz Lamas isn't a volume striker.

Bellator and WSOF are on Friday:





Bellator 146: Kato vs. Manhoef


Hisaki Kato vs. Melvin Manhoef
Bubba Jenkins vs. Jordan Parsons
Chidi Njokuani vs. Ricky Rainey
Brandon Girtz vs. Derek Campos
Guilherme Viana vs. Houston Alexander

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(volume is muted, but everyone made weight)


World Series of Fighting 25: Lightweight Tournament


Quarter-finals

Mike Ricci vs. Brian Cobb
Luis Palomino vs. Rich Patishnock
Brian Foster vs. Joao Zeferino
Jorge Patino vs. Islam Mamedov

Reserve Bouts

LaRue Burley vs. Joe Condon
Benny Madrid vs. Ramil Mustapayev

Preliminary Card (WSOF.com)

Jason High vs. Caros Fodor
Joseph Barajas vs. Erik Villalobos
Jimmy Scully vs. Roberto Yong


Whoever wins the tournament will have to fight a total of 3 times in one night.

3 mma fights in one night for 2 people? crazy

Nice, one night tournament :D. I hope Palomino wins

Ricci will win the tourney IMO. They changed up the order and he is fighting Joe Condon in the 1st round who couldnt even beat 1-armed Nick Newel. -1300 unfortunately. Should be -5000.

I'm pissed cuz I was looking to bet him at -250 vs Brian Cobb and then they switched it up.

Palomino v Patishnock should be fireworks.

Also, Bellator - Manhoef and his cracked chin vs Kato just being awful should produce fireworks.

Kelvin Gastelum (171) vs. Neil Magny (171)
Ricardo Lamas (146) vs. Diego Sanchez (145)
Henry Cejudo (126) vs. Jussier Formiga (126)
Enrique Marin (170) vs. Erick Montano (169) – ‘TUF: Latin America 2’ welterweight final
Enrique Barzola (155) vs. Horacio Gutierrez (154) – ‘TUF: Latin America 2’ lightweight final
Efrain Escudero (156) vs. Leandro Silva (155)
Taylor Lapilus (136) vs. Erik Perez (136)
Bartosz Fabinski (170) vs. Hector Urbina (171)
Scott Jorgensen (135.5) vs. Alejandro Perez (135.5)
Gabriel Benitez (145) vs. Andre Fili (145)
Alvaro Herrera (171) vs. Vernon Ramos (170)
Cesar Arzamendia (155) vs. Polo Reyes (155)
Valmir Lazaro (155) vs. Michel Prazeres (156)

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I forgot that this is a TUF Latin America card. Since last night was the last episode, there were 4 guys who advanced from the show to the UFC finale card, so we go from 11 fights to 13 fights.

People who looked soft

Alvaro Herrera
Scott Jorgensen
Hector Urbina
Erick Montano
Kelvin Gastelum


Efrain Escudero looked soft as well, but it's standard for him. He actually looked a little better than usual, but still kinda soft.

Nice, threw the under in Manhoef fight in a Lamas parlay for tomorrow and then Manhoef Manhoef's. Sick KO. The African Thunder Left Hook of Violence.

Sick KO by Melvin.

WSOF started right after Melvin got the KO.

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Multiple injuries in the WSOF event. Ricci and Mamedov won their first fights, but they are both injured, so they had to give up their fights to guys who lost in the first round.