UFC FN 76: Poirier vs. Duffy

Date: Sunday, October 24th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:15 LP.net / 10:15am PST / 1:15pm EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:00 LP.net / 1pm PST / 4pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Patrick Holohan (12-1-1) vs. Louis Smolka (9-1) (Flyweight)
Norman Parke (20-4-1) vs. Reza Madadi (13-3) (Lightweight)
Nicolas Dalby (14-0) vs. Darren Till (13-0) (Welterweight)
Neil Seery (15-11) vs. Jon Delos Reyes (8-4) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Stevie Ray (18-5) vs. Mickael Lebout (14-4-1) (Lightweight)
Scott Askham (13-1) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (15-1) (Middleweight)
Aisling Daly (15-6) vs. Ericka Almeida (7-1) (Women's Strawweight)
Cathal Pendred (17-3-1) vs. Tom Breese (8-0) (Welterweight)
Darren Elkins (18-5) vs. Robert Whiteford (12-2) (Featherweight)
Bubba Bush (8-2) vs. Garreth McLellan (12-3) (Middleweight)

Other

- The co-main event was expected to feature a heavyweight bout with potential UFC Heavyweight Championship title implications between Stipe Miocic and Ben Rothwell. However, Miocic pulled out of the fight on October 13 citing injury. Subsequently, Rothwell was removed from the card the following day after the promotion deemed that a suitable opponent could not be arranged on short notice.
- The event was expected to be headlined by a lightweight bout between Dustin Poirier and Joseph Duffy. However, Duffy was forced to pull out of the fight on October 21, three days prior to the event, due to a mild concussion and the fight was scrapped. A flyweight bout between Patrick Holohan and Louis Smolka was promoted to event headliner.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Duffy > Poirier
• Miocic > Rothwell
• Dalby > Till
• Smolka > Holohan
• Madadi > Parke
• Ray > Lebout
• Reyes > Seery
• Askham > Jotko
• Daly > Almeida
• Pendred > Breese
• Elkins > Whiteford
• Bush > McLellan

Duffy > Poirier
Miocic > Rothwell
Dalby v Till - Pickem
Holohan > Smolka
Madadi vs Parke - Won't know until weigh-ins
Ray > Lebout
Reyes > Seery
Askham > Jotko
Daly v Almeia - Pickem
Breese > Pendred
Whiteford > Elkins
Bush v McLellan - No clue

Bets Placed (As usual, will be updated as more bets are placed). Happy to have crushed the Steve Ray line. I expect him to end up at -500 + and I got him at -270 for one of my biggest individual bets yet.

+ Show Spoiler +

How do you guys think the style matchup will go on Dalby V Till? I really like Till's potential and already put a bet on him but realize Dalby is really fundamentally sound so I'm not that confident. Maybe it's weird but I can almost compare Till to Felder in that there's a lot of unrefined potential but I feel like Till's fight IQ is better.

I guess I can only say Till's fight IQ is better in hindsight after watching a bit of...not very fluid fighting from Felder recently

On October 11 2015 22:34 iakim322 wrote: How do you guys think the style matchup will go on Dalby V Till? I really like Till's potential and already put a bet on him but realize Dalby is really fundamentally sound so I'm not that confident. Maybe it's weird but I can almost compare Till to Felder in that there's a lot of unrefined potential but I feel like Till's fight IQ is better.

I want Till to win, but if I were betting money on this fight, I'd go medium on Dalby -135 or better and hedge with Till KO/TKO prop. Till has power, but Dalby does have a good chin.

I don't think Dalby will finish Till. I see Dalby clinching a lot for take downs, forcing Till to defend and not get a lot of punches off. Till will probably lose this fight via decision and learn from his mistakes, and come back stronger in his next fight.

It'd be cool to see Till show some elite TDD and force Dalby to stand with him, but I doubt it'll happen for 3 rounds.

On October 11 2015 22:40 iakim322 wrote: I guess I can only say Till's fight IQ is better in hindsight after watching a bit of...not very fluid fighting from Felder recently

I took the over and have stayed away from making a pick. Both guys have good cardio so I don't see either gassing and giving up a finish that way, and neither have devastating power although Till is able to generate more because of his frame. No way to know how much Till will have improved or who will come in with a better gameplan / fight IQ - which is likely what this will come down to. Dalby seems like more of a finished product, less dangerous but more well-rounded. Till has some cool body/inside leg kicks and a nice straight left, the typical power striking southpaw stuff, but I'm not nearly as impressed with him in the pocket as him at kicking range. Also, he seems a bit too passive for my taste - probably because he's not the greatest defensive wrestler, but that's just speculation. If his game doesn't have solid layering beyond his solid distance-based Muai Thai than hes likely to get outpointed via a boring mix of grappling and clinch-control from Dalby. Just no way to know from what I've seen, but I only watched a couple of Till's fights.

I would say I hope I'm wrong since I think Till is easily the more exciting prospect, but I bet the over so now I hope I'm right ^^

PS - As for that Felder v Pearson fight, which I actually really do like the comparison - there is not 1 person who's opinion I respect who gave Pearson a 1/4 shot to win that fight. I'm not even saying it was a fluke, there was just no way to have predicted that Felder's boxing and footwork was so far behind his Muai Thai and Pearson fought an absolutely perfect fight. It was the perfect storm for a not-very-live dog to win. It happens now and then. I really don't think anyone picking Pearson even saw it going that way.

I'm starting to see some value in Ben Rothwell, you guys think he can win?

On October 13 2015 17:42 Minsk wrote: I'm starting to see some value in Ben Rothwell, you guys think he can win?

Ben has decent cardio, sick good chin, more power than Stipe, and he also has unorthodox striking and movement. He can win, be he's the rightful underdog.

Dunno what I cap him at.

Miocic out injured, this is officially the worst card in UFC history ffs

On October 13 2015 21:50 Baalim wrote: Miocic out injured, this is officially the worst card in UFC history ffs

Not even close to being the worst card in UFC history. The shitty cards they put on in Macau are always worse than this.

Stipe/Ben isn't why most people wanted to watch this card, so it's not a massive loss. Sucks for Ben though, as he's on a good run and he barely gets any fights.

DraftKings free roll with $400 for 1st place: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/11184174

Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal.

On October 15 2015 20:40 Nazgul wrote: Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal.

The fight is in the WSOF, so I expect a weird result.

People will bet o2.5 rounds at -190 to -250, and Fitch will win via TKO, or something.

On October 15 2015 20:40 Nazgul wrote: Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal.

Thanks for the heads up, just bet him

On October 15 2015 22:34 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On October 15 2015 20:40 Nazgul wrote: Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal. The fight is in the WSOF, so I expect a weird result. People will bet o2.5 rounds at -190 to -250, and Fitch will win via TKO, or something.

So true. Also no clue how Okami is making 170. Not touching that fight.

My only bet on that card right now is the Newell/Marcalino o 1.5 rds at -140. Neither guy can KO the other and Marcalino isn't a terrible grappler (I don't think from what I've seen). It's now at -170, sorry didn't post yesterday, doubt anyone cares anyway.

On October 15 2015 23:47 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On October 15 2015 22:34 PuertoRican wrote:   On October 15 2015 20:40 Nazgul wrote: Not the right topic but Okami is -175 vs Fitch seems like a great deal. The fight is in the WSOF, so I expect a weird result. People will bet o2.5 rounds at -190 to -250, and Fitch will win via TKO, or something. So true. Also no clue how Okami is making 170. Not touching that fight. My only bet on that card right now is the Newell/Marcalino o 1.5 rds at -140. Neither guy can KO the other and Marcalino isn't a terrible grappler (I don't think from what I've seen). It's now at -170, sorry didn't post yesterday, doubt anyone cares anyway.

Yep, Okami is dropping to 170 for this fight, and everyone knows that your chin isn't as strong when you drop weight. Think it has something with water in the brain, don't really know the science behind it, I only know the cold-hard-facts that I've seen in the UFC with weight cutters.

I have a ton of studying to do this weekend, so I won't be watching WSOF. Maybe the ME, maybe not.

I gotta admit I didn't do enough research and thought this would be at 185 considering there's no way Okami's body should be able to fit into 170 ROFL.

On October 16 2015 01:45 Nazgul wrote: I gotta admit I didn't do enough research and thought this would be at 185 considering there's no way Okami's body should be able to fit into 170 ROFL.

BJ Penn was able to get down to 145, and he looked pretty good.

/sarcasm

He's not THAT much bigger than KDH is he, and KDH seems to make WW fine?

+ Show Spoiler + [size comparison]

He's a bit bigger sure, but not outrageously so. Still, being the first time Okami has to make WW since like 2006 and he's no spring chicken anymore... Bit concerning.