UFC FN 73: Teixeira vs. Saint Preux

Date: Saturday, August 8th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Glover Teixeira (22-4) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (18-6) (Light Heavyweight)
Michael Johnson (16-8) vs. Beneil Dariush (11-1) (Lightweight)
Derek Brunson (13-3) vs. Sam Alvey (26-6) (Middleweight)
Jared Rosholt (12-2) vs. Timothy Johnson (9-1) (Heavyweight)
Chris Camozzi (21-10) vs. Tom Watson (17-8) (Middleweight)
Ray Borg (8-1) vs. Geane Herrera (8-0) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)

Uriah Hall (10-5) vs. Oluwale Bamgbose (5-0) (Middleweight)
Sara McMann (8-2) vs. Amanda Nunes (10-4) (Women's Bantamweight)
Dustin Ortiz (14-4) vs. Willie Gates (12-5) (Flyweight)
Frankie Saenz (10-2) vs. Sirwan Kakai (12-2) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Chris Dempsey (11-2) vs. Jonathan Wilson (6-0) (Light Heavyweight)
Marlon Vera (6-2-1) vs. Roman Salazar (9-3) (Bantamweight)
Anthony Christodoulou (12-5) vs. Scott Holtzman (7-0) (Lightweight)

Other

- Matt Van Buren was briefly linked to a bout with Jonathan Wilson at the event. However, Van Buren was removed from the card in early June citing injury and replaced by Jared Cannonier. In turn, Cannonier was forced to pull out due to injury and was replaced by Chris Dempsey.
- Joe Riggs was expected to face Uriah Hall at this event. However, Riggs was forced to pull out due to injury and was replaced by UFC newcomer Oluwale Bamgbose.
- Ian McCall was expected to face Dustin Ortiz at this event. However, McCall was forced to pull out of the event due to injury and was replaced by Willie Gates. Gates had previously fought only 27 days before the event, when he defeated Darrell Montague at The Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Teixeira > OSP
• Dariush > Johnson
• Alvey > Brunson
• Rosholt > Johnson
• Camozzi vs. Watson (dunno yet, but it's a shitty fight on paper)
• Borg > Herrera
• Hall > Bamgbose (Bam is what we'll call him. This guy gasses hard in the first round.)
• McMann vs. Nunes (dunno yet, but it's an interesting fight on paper)
• Ortiz > Gates
• Saenz vs. Kakai (dunno yet, but it's an interesting fight on paper)
• Dempsey > Wilson
• Vera vs. Salazar (dunno)
• Holtzman > Christodoulou

I may actually attend this event (I live in Nashville)

I don't understand the Glover - OSP odds. Will be pumping in some money on Teixeira.

On August 03 2015 06:30 TimDawg wrote: I may actually attend this event (I live in Nashville)

Thats' cool. I'm sure awesome tickets are really cheap

OSP > Texeira
Johnson > Dariush
Brunson > Alvey
Rosholt > Johnson
Camozzi > Watson
Borg > Herrera
Hall > Bam
McMann > Nunes
Ortiz > Gates
Kakai > Saenz
Wilson > Dempsey
Vera > Salazar
Holtzman > Christodoulou

- Tape studied the entire event yesterday (Sunday) because I've noticed my best success has been on beating early line movement on absolute robberies for lines. I'm actually going to try and do it on Fridays from now on, 8 days before. Aren't really any of those on this card unfortunately, maybe 1 which I listed below, but I already put down some plays and will be putting a few more down today and will post later.

Odds prediction: Brunson ends up around -325 or higher. He opened at -210.

Advice to Northsails - If you like Texeira, wait. The more tape people watch and the more money comes in, the more the line in gonna flop. I think you can get him at + money if you wait. On the other hand, I'd advise you not to bet on him because I think he's gonna lose, but I'm more confident in picking the line movement than the actual fight.... cuz MMA.

On August 03 2015 14:59 soberstone wrote: Advice to Northsails - If you like Texeira, wait. The more tape people watch and the more money comes in, the more the line in gonna flop. I think you can get him at + money if you wait. On the other hand, I'd advise you not to bet on him because I think he's gonna lose, but I'm more confident in picking the line movement than the actual fight.... cuz MMA.

Why do you think so? I find OSP to be a sloppy striker and to have inferior ground game to Glover. He was losing the fight against Pat Cummins and looked gassed at the end of the first round, before catching him with that shot. Other than the fact that he is big and athletic I don't find anything impressive about him.

Glover was a little bit overrated himself before Jon Jones took his soul and hasn't looked very stellar after that, but still has a good well rounded skill set and big power. I feel he has the advantage on the feet and on the ground and if he is not completely washed up should win this fight most of the time.

I got him at a -120 for a small bet so far and if he reaches + odds I will be betting more on him for sure.

OSP is a sloppy striker with wide punches who gasses. His submissions seemed like they might have improved when he fought Jimmo, but Jimmo already hurt his arm prior to the arm submission, which resulted in a fast tap.

Teixeira has the much better boxing, better cardio, and his BJJ is far superior and is basically a wash.

If I were Tex, I'd be a counter fighter and let OSP gas out b4 going for the finish, especially since it's a 5-round fight. A take down in round 2 would be smart. Tex doesn't have great wrestling, but he can eventually get a take down sometime after round 1.

OSP has the first 10 minutes to get the finish, or he'll lose. If I were gonna bet him, I'd do OSP KO/TKO prop, OSP wins in round and 1 and 2, and NOT Saint Preux by decision.

How do u guys see the fight going, is Texeira ITD worth it ?

On August 03 2015 16:03 northsails wrote: Show nested quote + On August 03 2015 14:59 soberstone wrote: Advice to Northsails - If you like Texeira, wait. The more tape people watch and the more money comes in, the more the line in gonna flop. I think you can get him at + money if you wait. On the other hand, I'd advise you not to bet on him because I think he's gonna lose, but I'm more confident in picking the line movement than the actual fight.... cuz MMA. Why do you think so? I find OSP to be a sloppy striker and to have inferior ground game to Glover. He was losing the fight against Pat Cummins and looked gassed at the end of the first round, before catching him with that shot. Other than the fact that he is big and athletic I don't find anything impressive about him. Glover was a little bit overrated himself before Jon Jones took his soul and hasn't looked very stellar after that, but still has a good well rounded skill set and big power. I feel he has the advantage on the feet and on the ground and if he is not completely washed up should win this fight most of the time. I got him at a -120 for a small bet so far and if he reaches + odds I will be betting more on him for sure.

Career trajectory is a vastly underrated variable - the Dillashaw vs Barao II fight was such an obvious example of this - I couldn't believe the odds.... people betting on Barao clearly didn't watch his Gagnon fight or are just not putting 2 + 2 together. Same with Gadelha vs Jessica Aguilar. LOL at that opening at -220.... what a steal, Aguilar had no way to win that fight.

Did you watch Glover vs Phil Davis? That was an aged, slower, and different fighter, and it was about a year ago. And Phil Davis is not a world beater.... and yes I understand it's a different matchup with different dynamics.... but it showed us something about Glover. He didn't just outwrestle Glover, he out struck him and Glover's cardio was gone in 60 seconds....

All that said, this is a much closer fight than those two, the line isn't really off, the best version of Glover probably smashes the current version of OSP, but we are not there anymore. Now it's really a question of how good OSP actually is (not great IMO) vs what version of Glover shows up (who knows). I just think OSP will win.

If it's a relatively competitive fight early which it should be, I fully expect Glover to gas before OSP, especially if he shoots for takedown's early or OSP is able to surprise him with one.

I expect OSP to win via primarily speed, length, and being levels more athletic at this point in their careers. His chin is rock solid and just because his game is unorthodox doesn't make it ineffective. Glover, as you said, was always over-rated, and is just a durable, plodding, heavy-hitter with solid hands but predictable striking, good dirty boxing, and an A-level top game. I don't expect that to get the job done. I expect OSP to display a kicking-range advantage and frustrate Glover.

That said if they just start trading hands in the pocket or Glover can consistently push OSP against the fence and unload, it'll be a different story. That's how I'd see Glover winning the fight.

This fight is also in OSP's hometown FWIW (not much unless it goes to a close decision, unlikely obv)

I'm in between the two arguments. I used to think OSP was sloppy but he seems to be more fluid in his last few fights. And it really means nothing that he was 'losing the round until' the shot against Cummins. I'd think most 205'ers will 'lose' the first round on points simply due to Cummins wrestling control especially while he's fresh. Also don't think it's impossible for Glover to look a good bit better than he did vs Phil Davis. Maybe not common knowledge but Glover had been active as f as not only an official fighter but also way back as a training partner for Chuck. Especially since he fights at a higher weight class, not that unlikely that he could get a boost from rest from burnout. Still personally favor OSP

I've been high on Beneil. Still will be on him but the last time I was high on someone who I thought was improving a lot...and was taking a pretty noticeable step up in competition...was just this last weekend. And Magny got wiped the f out.

Anyone seen Timothy Johnson fight? I'm of the opinion that Jared Rosholt sucks. A lot.

On August 04 2015 02:37 iakim322 wrote: I'm in between the two arguments. I used to think OSP was sloppy but he seems to be more fluid in his last few fights. And it really means nothing that he was 'losing the round until' the shot against Cummins. I'd think most 205'ers will 'lose' the first round on points simply due to Cummins wrestling control especially while he's fresh. Also don't think it's impossible for Glover to look a good bit better than he did vs Phil Davis. Maybe not common knowledge but Glover had been active as f as not only an official fighter but also way back as a training partner for Chuck. Especially since he fights at a higher weight class, not that unlikely that he could get a boost from rest from burnout. Still personally favor OSP I've been high on Beneil. Still will be on him but the last time I was high on someone who I thought was improving a lot...and was taking a pretty noticeable step up in competition...was just this last weekend. And Magny got wiped the f out. Anyone seen Timothy Johnson fight? I'm of the opinion that Jared Rosholt sucks. A lot.

Rosholt has a bad chin and sloppy striking but his ability to takedown every single person he fights and dirty-box them in the clinch won't change here. He's beaten top 15 competition. Timothy Johnson had 1 ufc fight and won by basically getting mount vs a complete nobody in a fight he was losing and didn't look good even in how he finished the fight. Furthermore, Johnson is a tallish guy that likes to clinch and wrestle and isn't a good striker with scary power. Perfect matchup for Rosholt.

I'm huge on Rosholt in this fight.

Only 2 fights hes ever lost he was been winning handily and then got KO'd out of nowhere (1 early in his career vs the Black Beast after an awful standup with 10 seconds left in round 2, and in his second to last fight vs Olynyk that he was also winning sort-of impressively). I like the under at +150 and Rosholt ITD at +160, small cage or not. Unless this guy got way better, he's a straight heavyweight can.

I'm high on both Beneil and Johnson, because LW is bad-ass, but the fact that you brought up Magney is funny because this fight is very similar to that one in that Beneil probably needs the takedown to win, but if he gets the takedown, it could get very ugly for Johnson.

Difference is, Beneil isn't the chain wrestler Maia is (yet, although like you said, he's improving, and that's probably #1 thing he's working on for this fight), and Johnson has better TDD than Magney by a lot. If it's a big cage I lean Johnson, small cage I like under bets. Beneil is a much better striker than Maia, but isn't on Johnson's level as far as foot movement and kickboxing. Southpaw vs southpaw also takes away Beneil's favorite weapons from what I've seen (inside leg kicks and body kicks). Johnson hits harder than anyone Beneil has faced, and his chin is a question mark - the Ramsey Nijem knockout was fluky but can't be ignored. Number one thing, MJ is just so fast, I don't see how Dariush deals with the footwork and speed.

Don't forget that the Blackzilians all have glaring holes in their grappling game. It's weird because they have legit BJJ and wrestling coaches, but grappling has been the one area they have lacked in, even though multiple fighters from that camp have gotten better.

If Dariush gets MJ on the mat, he'll make it tough for him to get back to his feet. Dariush isn't the type to LnP, so MJ would be forced to defend various positions for awhile and probably not be able to get up once he's down on the mat. Dariush goes for position before anything, which is vary different from say a pure wrestling approach.

Joe Lauzon does a quick video that talks about and shows the length of time Rousimar Palhares holds his submissions: http://www.bjpenn.com/is-dck-palhares...-too-long-lauzon-breaks-it-down-best/

The odds of smilen Alvey (+320) are really good :O

OSP will pound Texeiras face in

On August 04 2015 07:59 PuertoRican wrote: Joe Lauzon does a quick video that talks about and shows the length of time Rousimar Palhares holds his submissions: http://www.bjpenn.com/is-dck-palhares...-too-long-lauzon-breaks-it-down-best/

Love J-Lau.

Breaking it down objectively like a pro even though at this point it's really not necessary because Palhares a scary sociopath. It really sucks Shields lost that. He was absolutely dominating the fuck out of him until the eye gouging began. That Kimura was still a distinct possibility because Palhares is so dangerous, but I think Shields got distracted and slipped. He's 5 times the grappler Palhares is and showed it in that fight.

He is such a werido, its a shame is actually really good but he probably needs at the very least a 2 year suspension

On August 05 2015 00:20 soberstone wrote: He's 5 times the grappler Palhares is and showed it in that fight.

LOL to this

Palhares is not longer the WSOF champion and waiting for a suspension

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/8/4/9...s-stripped-of-wsof-welterweight-title