UFC 189: McGregor vs. Mendes

Date: Saturday, July 11th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (PPV)

Conor McGregor (17-2) vs. Chad Mendes (17-2) (Featherweight Championship)
Robbie Lawler (25-10) vs. Rory MacDonald (18-2) (Welterweight Championship)
Dennis Bermudez (14-4) vs. Jeremy Stephens (23-11) (Featherweight)
Gunnar Nelson (13-1-1) vs. Brandon Thatch (11-2) (Welterweight)
Brad Pickett (24-10) vs. Thomas Almeida (18-0) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Matt Brown (19-13) vs. Tim Means (24-6-1) (Welterweight)
Mike Swick (15-5) vs. Alex Garcia (12-2) (Welterweight)
Cathal Pendred (17-2-1) vs. John Howard (22-11) (Welterweight)
Cody Garbrandt (6-0) vs. Henry Briones (16-4-1) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Neil Seery (15-10) vs. Louis Smolka (8-1) (Flyweight)
Yosdenis Cedeno (10-4) vs. Cody Pfister (11-4-1) (Lightweight)

Other

• This will be the first event to feature the Reebok uniforms, which were officially revealed on June 30, 2015, after being announced on December 2, 2014.
• The event was expected to be headlined by a UFC Featherweight Championship bout between current champion Jose Aldo and top contender Conor McGregor. On June 23, it was reported that Aldo suffered a rib fracture and could pull out of the bout in light of the injury. A day later, the UFC received official medical confirmation from several doctors that Aldo did not suffer such injury. Following a review of the scans, it was determined that the champion suffered a bone bruise to his rib and cartilage injury during training. Aldo had expressed that he had every intention of fighting. Despite that, the UFC also announced a contingency plan as Chad Mendes would face McGregor for the interim UFC Featherweight Championship in the event that Aldo cannot compete. On June 30, it was confirmed that Aldo indeed pulled out of the bout and the McGregor-Mendes bout would take place at this event. UFC president Dana White said the reason for the interim title, in this case, has to do with Aldo's history of pulling out of title fights, despite having defended it only 9 months earlier. The bout will remain as the main event.
• The co-main event is expected to feature a UFC Welterweight Championship bout between current champion Robbie Lawler and top contender Rory MacDonald. Their first fight at UFC 167 ended in a split decision victory for Lawler.
• Matt Brown was briefly linked to a bout with Nate Diaz at the event. However in mid-April, Brown announced that the pairing had been scrapped. Brown is expected to remain on the card against Tim Means.
• A welterweight bout between Jake Ellenberger and Stephen Thompson was expected to take place at this event. However on May 15, the bout was moved to a main event status at The Ultimate Fighter 21 Finale, taking place a day later at the same venue.
• John Hathaway was expected to face Gunnar Nelson at the event. However, on June 23, Hathaway pulled out of the bout due to an injury. This prompted a shift in another welterweight bout on the card as Brandon Thatch was pulled from his fight against John Howard to face Nelson, while Cathal Pendred was announced as Howard's new opponent. Pendred had previously fought only 28 days before the event, when he defeated Augusto Montano at UFC 188.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Aldo > McGregor
• MacDonald > Lawler
• Bermudez > Stephens
• Thatch > Nelson
• Almeida > Pickett
• Means > Brown
• Garcia > Swick
• Pendred > Howard
• Garbrandt > Briones
• Seery > Smolka
• Cedeno > Pfister

Under normal circumstances, I don't think McGregor can take Aldo. I don't think he can handle the battle, hes used to hunting people and finishing in exploitative ways. It's not particularly likely here, and Aldo can battle. Unless he finishes it quickly, the pressure and pace will grind him. He will lose his power and after the first 1.5 rounds it will be a slippery slope.

Look for a faded and exausted McGregor by round 3 and Aldo wins in round 4 should be a good bet.

McGregor is actually a favorite now on Bovada, -140

Aldo +110

I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190

I was gonna recommend: Who Will Conor McGregor Fight Jose Aldo Or Chad Mendes? CHAD MENDES +217

But the line isn't up anymore on Bookmaker. I have a straight bet on it, and have it in a parlay.

The only other bet I have thus far is Tim Means +170 for 3 units.

Man I thought it would be a hard fought fight and best man on the night would win. I could see McGregor Pettisizing Aldo, but I could also see Aldo RFAing McGregor. Now with this fucking stupid rib injury, can't see any chance for Aldo. The only positive thing for him is the sheer amount of money he will make. Not sure what to think about Mendes-Mcgregor.

BTW imo use a decent name for the thread. I'm no mod or anything on LP anymore so it's really just my opinion.

Early Bets Laid Early Down to Beat Movement:
Stephens > Bermudez ML @ +160 - $50 to win $80
McDonald + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +160 - $60 to win $96.24
McGregor + McDonald + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +353 - $30 to win $105.98
McGregor + McDonald + Stephens + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +1079 - $10 to win $107.85

Other Fights that are Intriguing:

Matt Brown vs Tim Means - Could be Fight of the Year type stuff, I agree with Puerto Rican that its a dog or pass fight, I just can't quite convince myself to take Means. Puerto Rican - is there something specific in the matchup you see? I think both guys are extremely similar fighters (high octane, love the offensive Muai Thai clinch game, are both tough as shit with good cardio, etc). Matt Brown does go down when hit to the body cleanly almost every time, so maybe Means can find that liver?

Brandon Thatch vs Gunnar Nelson - Battle of top prospects that we've been sort of waiting to break into the top 10 for a couple years. Thatch is violent as hell in the clinch, but if he gets taken down is probably fucked. Nelson is extremely technically sound with a nice karate style, doesn't have big power striking, but has probably the best top game in Welterweight at this point next to Damien Maia and Rory MacDonald. This fight is really hard for me to picture which makes it a pickem in my head, but I wouldn't lay big money on the dog. Still, dog or pass and right now Gunnar is the dog.

On June 29 2015 15:50 Raidern wrote: BTW imo use a decent name for the thread. I'm no mod or anything on LP anymore so it's really just my opinion.

What a random thing to say... lmao

On June 29 2015 15:50 soberstone wrote: Matt Brown vs Tim Means - Could be Fight of the Year type stuff, I agree with Puerto Rican that its a dog or pass fight, I just can't quite convince myself to take Means. Puerto Rican - is there something specific in the matchup you see? I think both guys are extremely similar fighters (high octane, love the offensive Muai Thai clinch game, are both tough as shit with good cardio, etc). Matt Brown does go down when hit to the body cleanly almost every time, so maybe Means can find that liver?

Means is the better, younger, and less shopworn fighter, imo. Also, he can take more damage to the face and body, and uses his reach well. I'm not betting Means because he's the underdog, I'm betting him because I think he'll win.

DraftKings: The lines are up for UFC 189, and they really upped the prize pools! For example, the $3 event that usually offers a $10k/$15k/$20k total prize pool (with $800/$1k/$2k for 1st place) is now offering a $75k prize pool with a $20k 1st place prize!

On June 29 2015 10:43 TimDawg wrote: I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190

Did same except at -160. Oops. Not even confident anymore and wouldn't put the bet on at the same odds if it was now or never

Added:

Tim Means @ +170 - $30 to win $51
Means/Brown u 2.5 @ +105 - $20 to win $21
Nelson @ +145 - $40 to win $58
Stephens + Nelson @ +557 - $10 to win $55.17
McGregor + Stephens + McDonald + Nelson + Howard + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +5907 - $20 to win $1181.34
McGregor + Stephens + McDonald + Nelson + Means + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +7272 - $20 ton win $1454.37
McGregor + Stephens + McDonald + Nelson + Means + Howard + Garcia + Garbrandt @ +16118 - $20 ton win $3177.01

Going big on McDonald gogogogoogogogog

OP please use normal name for thread and use normal event poster =]

Mcrib gonna whup aldonado's ass whooohoooooo

On June 29 2015 21:37 ToT)MidiaN( wrote: [QUOTE]On June 29 2015 10:43 TimDawg wrote: I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190

Did same except at -160. Oops. Not even confident anymore and wouldn't put the bet on at the same odds if it was now or never [/QUOTE
]yeah it does seem a bit closer than -190 for sure and probably even -160, even if Aldo was healthy

I did the opposite because I'm an idiot sports degen and made another bet on Aldo at +110

On June 30 2015 08:08 TimDawg wrote: Show nested quote + On June 29 2015 21:37 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:   On June 29 2015 10:43 TimDawg wrote: I actually bet on Aldo back in January of this year when he was -190 Did same except at -160. Oops. Not even confident anymore and wouldn't put the bet on at the same odds if it was now or never yeah it does seem a bit closer than -190 for sure and probably even -160, even if Aldo was healthy I did the opposite because I'm an idiot sports degen and made another bet on Aldo at +110

Tim, where do you bet at?

Aldo has been +130 at 5dimes and Bookmaker for awhile. The public is supposed to know by tomorrow (Tuesday) if Aldo will fight or not.