UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum

Date: Saturday, June 13th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (FX): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (PPV)

Cain Velasquez (13-1) vs. Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1) (Heavyweight Championship)
Gilbert Melendez (22-4) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-4) (Lightweight)
Kelvin Gastelum (10-1) vs. Nate Marquardt (33-14-2) (Middleweight)
Yair Rodriguez (4-1) vs. Charles Rosa (10-1) (Featherweight)
Tecia Torres (5-0) vs. Angela Hill (2-0) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (FX)

Chico Camus (14-5) vs. Henry Cejudo (8-0) (Flyweight)
Efrain Escudero (23-9) vs. Drew Dober (15-6) (Lightweight)
Alejandro Perez (15-5) vs. Patrick Williams (7-4) (Bantamweight)
Francisco Trevino (12-0) vs. Johnny Case (20-4) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Augusto Montano (15-1) vs. Cathal Pendred (16-2-1) (Welterweight)
Gabriel Benitez (17-4) vs. Clay Collard (14-5) (Featherweight)

Other

- A lightweight bout between Francisco Trevino and Johnny Case was originally expected to take place at UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs. Siver. However, on December 23, it was announced that Trevino had to pull out of the bout due to an injury. The fight was later rescheduled for this event.
- Hector Urbina was expected to face Albert Tumenov at the event. However, Urbina was forced to pull out of the fight due to an arm injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Andrew Todhunter. The bout was then cancelled altogether on June 11 after Todhunter was medically disqualified from the card after dealing with issues while cutting weight. Tumenov will still make weight for the event in order to earn his contracted show money.

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First impression of the match-ups:

• Velasquez > Werdum
• Melendez > Alvarez
• Gastelum > Marquardt
• Rosa > Rodriguez
• Torres > Hill
• Cejudo > Camus
• Dober > Escudero
• Perez vs. Williams (dunno)
• Case > Trevino
• Pendred > Montano
• Collard > Benitez
• Tumenov > Todhunter

Melendez - Alvarez is insane fight.

Cain will murder Werdum. I like the u 2.5 line at +130.

I used to have $1,600 on Cain vs Werdum back in June 2014 but that was canceled T_T. Now I'm not sure if I want to touch it, the line is both worse and Cain has been away for longer. Shitty. I'm not a huge Eddie Alvarez believer. He's clearly good, but not Gilbert Melendez good. Eddie also seems kind of small for the UFC lightweight division. Decided to put $12.50 on Melendez at -165 and wouldn't mind betting more if they let me. Can definitely recommend this bet around the -170 region.

Also just bet $250 on Rockhold at +158. It's uncommon for me to bet underdogs and even less common to bet them this big. Last underdogs I bet goes all the way back to Koscheck vs Silva and dos Anjos vs Pettis, both were small bets respectively $75 and $30. I just feel strongly that Rockhold vs Weidman is a pick'em fight that can go either way. Especially with it being five rounds Weidman will slow down and those rounds will go to Rockhold when he does.

Cain by KO/TKO -110 I will definitely bet the house on that. I may also bet on Melendez (-170).

Under 2.5 +110 also looks like a very good bet :O.

Be careful with Gil. He has not looked very stellar in his last few performances. while Eddie is legit. I don't like that line.

Agree with all of Rican's picks except Pendred.

Laid down a big parlay and a hail mary yesterday because I wanted to beat the line movements (Gastellum has already moved)....

Gastellum + Rosa + Tumenov @ +125 - $100.00
Valesquez + Gastellum + Rosa + Tumenov + Case + Montano - +245 - $30.00
Valesquez v Werdum u 2.5 rds @ +115 - $60.00

Thoughts on specifics and dynamics to come

On June 08 2015 14:21 alejandicto wrote: Cain by KO/TKO -110 I will definitely bet the house on that. I may also bet on Melendez (-170). Under 2.5 +110 also looks like a very good bet :O.

If the Cain by TKO line is available at -110 on Maker when props become available, I will put a sizable bet on it. I fully agree that the more than probable outcome is a Valesquez tko, even with layoff and injury history in mind.

Montaño is overrated IMO, I will also make a small bet on Pendred for that odds (+120)

On June 08 2015 17:49 alejandicto wrote: Montaño is overrated IMO, I will also make a small bet on Pendred for that odds (+120)

Did you see Pendred's first two UFC fights?

He is awful. I recommend a watch before placing a bet, but if you already know his deal and want to play him, nm my proceeding statement, just a suggestion.

IMO, he's possibly the slowest p4p guy on the roster and is absolutely horrible and already has robbery of the year on lock (I know, I won money on the fight vs Sean Spencer and was shocked when they read the decision). Only positive is durability.

I know very little about Montano except that I watched his first UFC fight and was violent as hell in the clinch, which TBH doesn't really play well against Pendred who I am sure wants to clinch and slow the fight down because his striking is absolutely atrocious, but still, I think they are throwing the Mexican's a bone here early on in the card.

Mexico City is at elevation, so keep that in mind when betting. The guy who is most likely to gas is Todhunter, as he's fighting on short notice, dropping to 170 for the first time, and never goes over 1.5 rounds in his fights.

My only bet thus far is 3 units on Cathal Pendred +135.

On June 08 2015 13:32 Nazgul wrote: I used to have $1,600 on Cain vs Werdum back in June 2014 but that was canceled T_T. Now I'm not sure if I want to touch it, the line is both worse and Cain has been away for longer. Shitty. I'm not a huge Eddie Alvarez believer. He's clearly good, but not Gilbert Melendez good. Eddie also seems kind of small for the UFC lightweight division. Decided to put $12.50 on Melendez at -165 and wouldn't mind betting more if they let me. Can definitely recommend this bet around the -170 region. Also just bet $250 on Rockhold at +158. It's uncommon for me to bet underdogs and even less common to bet them this big. Last underdogs I bet goes all the way back to Koscheck vs Silva and dos Anjos vs Pettis, both were small bets respectively $75 and $30. I just feel strongly that Rockhold vs Weidman is a pick'em fight that can go either way. Especially with it being five rounds Weidman will slow down and those rounds will go to Rockhold when he does.

+158, too bad i missed that, really good odds.

very interested in the ME and melendez - alavarez
the rest, not really

On June 08 2015 23:03 Raidern wrote: very interested in the ME and melendez - alavarez the rest, not really

Agree, not a great card.

This fight is fire though.

This and the main event.

Edit: Also, interested to see if Cejudo looks amazing. The odds on him are so stupid and unfounded right now at -950. Too bad the comeback on Camus is +500, because that's still too wide IMO, but I'm not overly sure.

If I can get Camus at +700ish I'd be all over it - his footwork and striking looked far improved in his decision win over One Punch Picket so if Cejudo chooses to stand and bang.... he could be making a mistake. Prolly just ragdolls him but still - largely unproven Olympic gold medalist wrestler, historically tough time making 125 and this is at altitude, I just can't believe anyone would bet on him at Ronda Rousey odds vs a competent opponent...

On June 08 2015 19:58 PuertoRican wrote: Mexico City is at elevation, so keep that in mind when betting. The guy who is most likely to gas is Todhunter, as he's fighting on short notice, dropping to 170 for the first time, and never goes over 1.5 rounds in his fights. My only bet thus far is 3 units on Cathal Pendred +135.

What do you see in Pendred v Montano that's making you throw down?

I'm not saying it's a bad bet, I just don't see it, wondering your rationale, ty

On June 08 2015 22:37 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On June 08 2015 13:32 Nazgul wrote: I used to have $1,600 on Cain vs Werdum back in June 2014 but that was canceled T_T. Now I'm not sure if I want to touch it, the line is both worse and Cain has been away for longer. Shitty. I'm not a huge Eddie Alvarez believer. He's clearly good, but not Gilbert Melendez good. Eddie also seems kind of small for the UFC lightweight division. Decided to put $12.50 on Melendez at -165 and wouldn't mind betting more if they let me. Can definitely recommend this bet around the -170 region. Also just bet $250 on Rockhold at +158. It's uncommon for me to bet underdogs and even less common to bet them this big. Last underdogs I bet goes all the way back to Koscheck vs Silva and dos Anjos vs Pettis, both were small bets respectively $75 and $30. I just feel strongly that Rockhold vs Weidman is a pick'em fight that can go either way. Especially with it being five rounds Weidman will slow down and those rounds will go to Rockhold when he does. +158, too bad i missed that, really good odds.

I'd be happy to straight bet Weidman v Rockhold (so we meet in the middle and eliminate the juice) vs anyone on this site for up to $150. So if anyone wants Rockhold at +140 right now, I'm here, PM Me.

I like the line on Werdum and actually think Werdum is a higher level fighter than Velasquez overall.

Combine that with Velasquez injury. I'm sure Werdum will have something up his sleeve to counter the specific style of Velasquez. It's not the easiest style to counter, but all the factors combined, I don't think that Velsaquez ego will be able to roll over Werdum. Werdum is very sneaky and tricky, and has a lot of styles, and is very good strategically, has continuity, his body is okay. I think overall, hes the best heavyweight in the world. Doesn't mean that he will be able to find a style that counters Cain, but everything together, I have no idea why hes a 5:1 underdog.

On June 09 2015 00:19 Minsk wrote: I like the line on Werdum and actually think Werdum is a higher level fighter than Velasquez overall. Combine that with Velasquez injury. I'm sure Werdum will have something up his sleeve to counter the specific style of Velasquez. It's not the easiest style to counter, but all the factors combined, I don't think that Velsaquez ego will be able to roll over Werdum. Werdum is very sneaky and tricky, and has a lot of styles, and is very good strategically, has continuity, his body is okay. I think overall, hes the best heavyweight in the world. Doesn't mean that he will be able to find a style that counters Cain, but everything together, I have no idea why hes a 5:1 underdog.

7 easy points about this fight and the way I believe will play out from start to finish and what to look for. This is all under the premise that Cain is Cain, not injury-riddled washed up Cain (which would be surprising)

1. To start, Cain easily dictates where this fight goes via wrestling/pressure-style/footwork/volume/strength/athleticism - that is unarguable. If Verdum decides to pull guard at any point, it will be on Cain's terms.
2. Cain will absolutely not let Werdum strike at kicking range (even though he could win there too) for more than the first 30 seconds, he will pressure him like he always does.
3. If Cain chooses to bang in the pocket in the center (which he likely will for a minute or so after the initial feel-out period because that's just his style) - he has far better boxing/brawling inside kicking range, hits way harder, has a better chin.
4. If Cain doesn't rock and finish Werdum in that exchange, he will likely press Werdum against the cage and dirty box the shit out of him, advantage incontestably for Cain Valasquez
5. If Cain mixes in takedown's, he will obviously be well aware of Werdum's full guard, will probably never end up in it, and the only submission threat is a triangle (armbars won't work on a guy like Cain unless he walks right into it, Werdum could never stay on top of Cain long enough to apply a sub if he got a miracle sweep, he didn't even sub Browne or Hunt from top position early in fights, which is insanely unlikely) - and Cain won't make the single most obvious mistake ever, which is not keeping his posture if in full guard.
6. Werdum will never be able to take Cain down besides a hail mary trip (he's good at trips) and Cain would quickly scramble away as he's squirmy and athletic as shit as a wrestler
7. At this point, if Werdum isn't finished already (unlikely IMO), Cain's cardio and the fact that they are sweaty as hell eliminates all hail mary subs for Werdum and it will either be a 5 round beatdown or finish in between the 2nd half of the 2nd-round through the 5th.

Sorry man but the above quoted statement is just blasphemy in my opinion - not to argue that Cain is too big of a favorite, I can't hate on anyone trying to fade Werdum as a big dog vs an inactive fighter. But that Werdum is a better overall fighter or that this should be some sort of pickem is absurd.

If you see a rationale, different path that this fight might take (besides just unpredictable insane shit like a Flying Armbar) please lay it out for me, I'm all for the some healthy debate with some solid logic involved so we can discuss the validity of our premises and see where we differ.

On June 08 2015 23:52 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On June 08 2015 19:58 PuertoRican wrote: Mexico City is at elevation, so keep that in mind when betting. The guy who is most likely to gas is Todhunter, as he's fighting on short notice, dropping to 170 for the first time, and never goes over 1.5 rounds in his fights. My only bet thus far is 3 units on Cathal Pendred +135. What do you see in Pendred v Montano that's making you throw down? I'm not saying it's a bad bet, I just don't see it, wondering your rationale, ty

Pendred is the better grappler imo, and doesn't gas as hard as Montano. Granted, they're fighting at high elevation, so it will probably be a shit-fest with a possible finish in round 3.

I also didn't like Montano's debut (it was in Mexico City). His offense and cardio against the smallest guy in the weightclass was pretty sad. I think Pendred will do what he does and find himself on Montano's back at some point. Montano won't have the size and strength advantage like he had against his opponent in his UFC debut.

I'm surprised the UFC matched Montano up with Pendred, since it will most likely be the worst fight on the card.