UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier

Date: Saturday, May 23rd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (PPV)

Anthony Johnson (19-4) vs. Daniel Cormier (15-1) (Light Heavyweight Championship)
Chris Weidman (12-0) vs. Vitor Belfort (24-10) (Middleweight Championship)
Donald Cerrone (27-6) vs. John Makdessi (13-3) (Lightweight)
Travis Browne (17-2-1) vs. Andrei Arlovski (23-10) (Heavyweight)
Joseph Benavidez (21-4) vs. John Moraga (16-3) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

John Dodson (16-6) vs. Zach Makovsky (19-5) (Flyweight)
Dong Hyun Kim (19-3-1) vs. Josh Burkman (27-10) (Welterweight)
Uriah Hall (10-4) vs. Rafael Natal (19-6-1) (Middleweight)
Rose Namajunas (2-2) vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-4) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Mike Pyle (26-10-1) vs. Colby Covington (7-0) (Welterweight)
Islam Makhachev (11-0) vs. Leo Kuntz (17-1-1) (Lighweight)
Justin Scoggins (9-2) vs. Josh Sampo (11-4) (Flyweight)

Other

- The event was expected to be headlined by a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship bout between then champion Jon Jones and top contender Anthony Johnson. However on April 28, following Jones' hit-and-run incident, the UFC decided to strip him of the title and suspend him indefinitely. He was replaced by the latest title challenger Daniel Cormier, who was scheduled to face Ryan Bader at the main event of UFC Fight Night 68.
- The co-main event is expected to feature a UFC Middleweight Championship bout between current champion Chris Weidman and former UFC Light Heavyweight champion and UFC 12 Heavyweight Tournament winner Vitor Belfort. The much delayed pairing had been rescheduled for several events. The first of which was UFC 173, where Belfort withdrew from the bout following the Nevada State Athletic Commission's ban on testosterone replacement therapy. The other events were UFC 181 and UFC 184, where Weidman withdrew from both bouts due to a broken hand and injured ribs, respectively.
- The event was also expected to feature a UFC Lightweight Championship title eliminator bout between top contenders Khabib Nurmagomedov and Donald Cerrone. However, Nurmagomedov pulled out of the bout on April 30 due to a knee injury. He was replaced by John Makdessi.
- Sean Spencer was expected to face Mike Pyle at the event. However, Spencer pulled out of the bout on April 23 due to an injury. He was replaced by Colby Covington.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Johnson vs. Cormier (dunno)
• Weidman > Belfort
• Cerrone > Makdessi
• Browne > Arlovski
• Benavidez > Moraga
• Dodson > Makovsky
• DHK > Burkman
• Hall > Natal
• Namajunas > Ansaroff
• Covington > Pyle
• Makhachev vs. Kuntz (dunno)
• Scoggins > Sampo

On this card, I don't see why the favourites will not win, with the exception of DC vs Rumble. IMO Rumble is the favourite not DC.

I don't know anything about Makhachev vs Kuntz and Scoggins vs Sampo.

This card is looking good.

Josh Burkman is no joke.

think cormier should be a much larger favorite than -135.

On May 17 2015 03:21 jvilla777 wrote: On this card, I don't see why the favourites will not win, with the exception of DC vs Rumble. IMO Rumble is the favourite not DC. I don't know anything about Makhachev vs Kuntz and Scoggins vs Sampo. This card is looking good.

The juice is so high for 80% or more of the fights, so I'll probably bet on Burkman at +190 or better and wait for live betting, or maybe just not bet this card.

This card is stacked from top to bottom, so I don't mind just watching the fights and not betting it.

Cormier Johnson -127 381.0 300
Cerrone Makdessi -305 305 100
Dodson Makovsky -400 400.0 100

What a card.

A part of me really wants belfort to KO weidman just to shut all the trtwhiners up.

If AJ vs Cormier happened 7 months ago, Cormier would be like a -400 favorite or even more.

But Cormier losing to Jones grealty reduced the hyper around him, while AJ CRUSHING the guy who almost beats Jones greatly increased the hype around him.

The real question is, how easily can Cormier take down AJ. If he can do it easily, he should be a much heavier favorite. If he can't do it, he most likely won't stand a chance.

Feel like only bet worht putting on those 2 are AJ by KO/TKO or DC by decision

On May 17 2015 15:36 Spitfiree wrote: Feel like only bet worht putting on those 2 are AJ by KO/TKO or DC by decision

I'm not sure i agree with you.
all of AJ's losses were because he got finished. He never lost a decision. DC has a decent finishing rate too, and its 5 rounds. Not sure i like DC by decision at +180.

And then, AJ inside distance is +153, while AJ ML is +120. The difference is pretty Slim. I think its possible AJ wins by decision. Cormier was never finished before.

Agree with floofy.

Think the moment DC gets AJ down one time the fight is over. He has never won a fight where he has been taken down. Vitor did not even take him down and won the fight by submission anyway. AJ has to either finish him or stay off the ground for 5 rounds. Good luck keeping DC off you for that long.

On May 17 2015 18:40 Daut wrote: Agree with floofy. Think the moment DC gets AJ down one time the fight is over. He has never won a fight where he has been taken down. Vitor did not even take him down and won the fight by submission anyway. AJ has to either finish him or stay off the ground for 5 rounds. Good luck keeping DC off you for that long.

Whether AJ wins or not, it isn't fair to keep bringing up his weight and/or cardio issues from 3+ years ago.

AJ went from KO`ing Charlie Brenneman at welterweight, to fighting Vitor at "middleweight" in his next fight. I say "middleweight" because AJ came in 11 pounds overweight and weighed in at 197 pounds. Vitor had it in the rules that he would only fight AJ if he didn't weigh more than 205 pounds the next day, and so AJ fought at 204 pounds. AJ only being able to rehydrate 7 pounds showed in his fight, as he threw everything he had into a combo or two, then gassed out in the first round, which lead to an easy RnC by Vitor.

Once AJ moved up to light heavyweight in August 2012, his cardio began to improve. I noticed a big change in his cardio when he moved up to heavyweight in March 2013 and fought Andrei Arlovski, and won via 3-round decision. After the Arlovski fight, he fought once more before being signed back to the UFC, and you saw his improved cardio at light heavyweight when he beat Phil Davis by unanimous decision.

TLDR: Yes, DC can make this fight hell for AJ, but bringing up AJ's past fights when he had cardio issues isn't fair, especially if you're trying to honestly cap this fight and put down a bet on either guy.

p.s. Yes, I notice you were referencing being taken down, but AJ was only in that position due to his own mistakes, not because Vitor used some slick move to get him to the mat. Poor cardio led to a quick loss to Vitor.

The point wasn't that he gassed out and was taken down by guys he shouldn't have. The point was, the moment the fight hit the floor it was over; he looked like a white belt and got submitted instantly. Sure he has probably improved on the ground, and is much better at preventing the fight from going to the ground as it gets into deeper rounds, but DC ragdolled Josh Barnett for 5 rounds, I think he can get AJ down and make him look like a white belt again.

So much betting value on the favorites on this card, I'm stoked I'm going to be making big bets and I get to watch my favorite fighter squash a Brazillian Juice-Head.

DC > Johnson - Plenty of value on DC at near pickem odds. Anthony Johnson can KO anyone in the world. This is a firm possibility. But 50 percent? Nah. And the minute DC is able to make Johnson expend some real energy dealing with fighting off takedowns and getting up, the odds shift WAYYYYY in DC's favor. I can't believe DC's stock has apparently gone down from the Jon Jones fight. I don't think anyone is appreciating how well he did vs Jones. He absolutely surpassed my expectations. This is a fantastic fight, but I don't think its as close as the betting public sees it.

Weidman > Vitor - Kinda similar to the main event, except that instead of a prime Anthony Johnson, we have what I suspect will be horrible incarnation of Belfort. I think Weidman would run through the best Vitor we've ever seen, so I'm fully confident he will finish the version of Vitor that we will see.

Cerrone > Makdessi - Makdessi is one of the few dogs on this card that I would actually consider betting at +330, but I'm just gonna stay away from this one and root for Cerrone. Obviously Cerrone is the better fighter but the odds are wide and you never know when that inconsistent, worse version of Cerrone might show up. Maybe that's completely past him but I'm not sold yet, and Makdessi's previous opponent - Shane Campbell - who he steamrolled was like a much worse version of Cerrone, so...

Browne > Arlovski - This could be that heavy-weight parlay killer but I just don't see how Arlovski is gonna deal with the athleticism and mobility of Brown. Odds are pretty wide but I'll still include Browne in a parlay or two. I think this could easily go the distance too with both fighters having times where they are tentative and give opponents a lot respect. Both guys did so early with Schaub, but atleast Browne eventually knocked his block off.

Dodson >>>>>> Makovski - -385 is SUCH a good price for Dodson. TERRIBLE matchup for Makovsky. He may land an early takedown or two (I doubt it) - but that's the extent of his offense in this fight. Dodson will probably finish him.

DHK > Burkman - I like Burkman at +220. This fight is close.

Hall > Natal - Another favorite I like at -290. Hall underwhelmes but still, what is Natal gonna do him? Obviously submission is his only path to victory, but I don't see him taking down Hall at all. Hall even out-wrestled Gastellum at times. The only question is whether Hall does it impressively or not.

Thug Rose > Ansaroff - I don't know shit about Ansaroff, but will watch tape to determine if there is value on Rose. Obviously UFC is gonna match-make with the intention of her winning, so my only question is if it's a straight mismatch or a legit test for Thug Rose.

Covington > Pyle - Won't touch this one as Pyle is a quality fighter and Covington's upside is clear but hasn't been tested.

Scoggins > Sampo - Easy money at -365. Scoggins hasn't lost a round besides 1, maybe 2 (arguable), vs a tough wrestler in Dustin Ortiz. Besides that, he is an offensive dynamo who was wrecking John Moraga before idiotically giving up a guillotine. I trust the lesson has been learned.

parlay dodson + cerrone + weidman/belfort not DEC

Already laid down a shit ton (for me atleast). Needless to say if Scoggins, Dodson, or Hall lose I'm fucked. Don't see it happening tho. I think they should be bigger favorites than Joe B and I think Joe B is a lock too.


Scoggins + Hall + Burkman + Dodson + Benevidez + Browne + Weidman + Cormier $10.00 +2,517
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson + Benevidez + Browne + Weidman + Cormier $20.00 +595
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson + Benevidez + Browne + Weidman $40.00 +293
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson + Benevidez + Weidman $80.00 +214
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson + Benevidez $100.00 +162
Benevidez + Brown + Weidman + Cormier $100.00 +221
Scoggins + Hall + Dodson $200.00 +120
Burkman > Kim $20.00 +225

Added Makdesi ML for $30 - +325
Added Makdesi ML for $20 - +370
Added Cobington/Pyle Over 1.5 rds for $40 -170

This is a great card. I am betting big on Cormier here. I see a lot of simillar opinions in this thread. His pressure and wrestling I believe will be too much for Rumble to handle. Also DC's very good at keeping himself out of danger in stand up and is very hard to hit. Ton of value in DC at -130.

Also I like Arlovski at +350 ( not really impressed with Browne ). I can see upset here.

Price on Dodson is good too.

On May 17 2015 23:08 northsails wrote: This is a great card. I am betting big on Cormier here. I see a lot of simillar opinions in this thread. His pressure and wrestling I believe will be too much for Rumble to handle. Also DC's very good at keeping himself out of danger in stand up and is very hard to hit. Ton of value in DC at -130. Also I like Arlovski at +350 ( not really impressed with Browne ). I can see upset here. Price on Dodson is good too.

Not comparing Rumble to Jon Jones, but Jones threw 126 strikes over 5 rounds against DC and landed 92 of them, so I wouldn't say he's very hard to hit. All of the other guys he fought in Strikeforce and the UFC were guys who were below him in terms of wrestling technique, so it's hard to take anything from those fights aside from seeing his dominant against older and lesser skilled opponents like Dan Henderson, Patrick Cummins, Roy Nelson, and Frank Mir, among others. The lack of top tier competition was the knock on DC going into the fight against Jones. As of now, I like a bet on Rumble at plus money, and a bet on o2.5 rounds at -140, as I don't see DC finishing Rumble under 2.5 rounds.

Regarding Browne vs. Arlovski, they used to train together at Jackson's MMA before Browne moved to the same gym as Ronda Rousey so he could get better boxing training (his words). I think Browne left Jackson's MMA so he could get away from the "super gym" and have more 1-on-1 time with his head coach and not have to worry about facing any of his teammates down the road like he did with Overeem. Prior to Browne leaving, he was training alongside Overeem, Mir, and Arlovski.