UFC FN 66: Edgar vs. Faber

Date: Saturday, May 16th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 12:00 LP.net / 4am PST / 7:45pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 13:00 LP.net / 5am PST / 8am EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 15:00 LP.net / 7am PST / 10am EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Frankie Edgar (18-4-1) vs. Urijah Faber (32-7) (Featherweight)
Gegard Mousasi (36-5-2) vs. Costas Philippou (13-4) (Middleweight)
Mark Munoz (13-6) vs. Luke Barnatt (8-2) (Middleweight)
Hyun Gyu Lim (13-4-1) vs. Neil Magny (14-3) (Welterweight)
Phillipe Nover (10-5-1) vs. Yui Chul Nam (18-4-1) (Featherweight)
Mark Eddiva (6-1) vs. Levan Makashvili (6-1) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Tae Hyun Bang (17-8) vs. Jon Tuck (8-2) (Lightweight)
Zhang Lipeng (9-8-1) vs. Kajan Johnson (19-11-1) (Lightweight)
Li Jingliang (9-3) vs. Dhiego Lima (10-3) (Welterweight)
Ning Guangyou (4-2-1) vs. Royston Wee (4-0) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Roldan Sangcha-An (4-1) vs. Jon Delos Reyes (7-4) (Flyweight)
Nolan Ticman (4-2) vs. Yao Zhikui (1-2) (Flyweight)

Other

- Luke Barnatt was expected to face Clint Hester at UFC Fight Night 63. However, Hester pulled out of the fight in early March due to a broken foot. Subsequently, Barnatt was pulled from the card entirely in favor of a matchup with Mark Muñoz at this event.
- Roger Zapata was expected to face Li Jingliang at the event. However on April 18, it was announced that Zapata was pulled from the fight due to undisclosed reasons. Jingliang will now face Dhiego Lima.
- Alex White was expected to face Mark Eddiva at the event. However on April 26, it was announced that White was forced out of the fight due to an undisclosed injury. Eddiva will now face promotional newcomer Levan Makashvili.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Edgar > Faber
• Mousasi > Philippou
• Barnatt > Munoz
• Lim vs. Magny (dunno, tough fight.)
• Nam > Nover
• Makashvili > Eddiva
• Bang > Tuck
• Lipeng > Johnson
• Jingliang > Lima
• Guangyou vs. Wee (dunno)
• An vs. Reyes (dunno)
• Ticman vs. Zhikui (dunno)

TY for thread as always.

Dunno a lot of the Asian fighters so will study some tape this week if Fight Pass's search engine doesn't suck too bad and will edit this post with more picks.

Initial thoughts:

Edgar > Faber - Super excited for this fight obviously, too bad the rest of the card sucks. Line seems about right with 350 being in the middle of the two, Faber is very good but seems to be hitting more of a decline, Edgar is better at everything that should count in this matchup. If Faber is gonna win, it's gonna have to be, IMO, by landing a big right early early on when Edgar tends to get hit. Beyond that, Edgar should be able to box him up, stuff takedowns, avoid dangerous scrambles and outpoint him, maybe even land something big. I could see myself putting a flyer on Faber but probably won't. Kinda like the over at -235. Both guys damn near impossible to finish.

Mousasi > Philippou - As I stated in the last thread, I'm laying a good sized bet on Philippou at +430. I see Gegard as a heavy favorite, just not nearly that heavy. If you put money on him at -550 you're insane. I understand that it's hard to see a path to victory for Costas but to that I say, he hits really hard and Mousasi is hittable. I hope this is one of those events where they randomly put in the smaller cage because that would greatly favor Costas. On a side note, it's absolutely absurd that they ever use a smaller cage, makes it less of a legitimate sport.

Barnett > Munoz - Wouldn't bet on it in the Philippines, even though the odds aren't too wide and Munoz is clearly a joke at this point.

Magney > Lim - Very close fight, pick-em odds seem right, if either guy veers into +120 territory I'd look to bet them. Lim is enormous, for my money he's the biggest WW in the UFC, so I'll also be keeping an eye on the weigh-ins.

Will update when I do some scoutz0rs.

I haven't really researched any fights yet, but Barnatt seems like a good pick. He's 10 years younger, Munoz is clearly declining recenlty, and Barnat has a massive height and reach advantage.
Barnat also has a good TD, i don't see this going to the ground. I think Munoz's main chance is to KO Barnat, but Barnat has never been knocked out before.
But i haven't researched it yet, but as general rule you don't go wrong betting on the guy 10 years younger with massive reach advantage against someone who is clearly on a big decline.

BTW, throwback boxing style poster for Manilla is dope.

Wait, fuck Bookmaker. You mean to tell me you can get Edgar by decision at -135 on other sites right now? Fuck me, that better be there on Bookmaker come fight night. I'll take that all day.

pretty hyped for edgar fight. Hes prob my top 3 favorite fighter to watch. And ever since TUF seems like a beast of a dude. Like faber too though.

Edgar is the man.

If you don't like Frankie Edgar you have no soul

I think Faber just has nothing for Edgar. Think the line should be more in line with Ronda Rousey fights. Don't see a way for Faber to win.

Just noticed that all 12 fights are available to choose from on DraftKings. I think this is the first time they've done this for a card that isn't purely on Fight Pass. Too bad the card isn't great aside from the last 4-5 fights.

I think Edgar will win, but Faber always shines in non-title fights. Edgar has improved lately, while Faber seems like the same fighter (good, but flawed). Faber's best chance is to crack Edgar with a big punch and snag a choke, otherwise he'll lose a decision.

I really hate betting on main event and co-main. I think in both fights, odds are actually spot on, and too spread to find any sort of edge. I'm possibly gonna pass for once..

I think Faber can beat Edgar, and that Costas Phillipou can beat Gerard Mousasi, and I think that Neil Magny is a better fighter than Korean Zombie, but he might run into trouble with Zombies style, because Magny's style is so rhythm based and Zombie will force the pace.

Probably some value on the Western fighters too, as I watched a vice documentary about Chinese and Eastern Cultures having a small dick complex towards westerners, some of them will probably want to lose to a westerner.

On May 13 2015 03:18 Minsk wrote: I think Faber can beat Edgar, and that Costas Phillipou can beat Gerard Mousasi, and I think that Neil Magny is a better fighter than Korean Zombie, but he might run into trouble with Zombies style, because Magny's style is so rhythm based and Zombie will force the pace. Probably some value on the Western fighters too, as I watched a vice documentary about Chinese and Eastern Cultures having a small dick complex towards westerners, some of them will probably want to lose to a westerner.

This entire post...

Whats wrong with you?

Ah, thats not Korean Zombie. Neil Magny is gonna wreck him.

Ummmm.... yea the Korean Zombie (Chan Sung Jung) is a Featherweight and is out for mandated military duty for South Korea.....

I don't know if you are trolling or what but if so, 0/10.... if not, I concur with KG GIF

I'm not really trolling. I really would favor the western fighters as a genaralisation. Bookies can't make the lines like that, they couldn't explain it to their bosses, but humans do have subconscious tendencies like that which can produce edges.

On May 13 2015 06:25 Minsk wrote: I'm not really trolling. I really would favor the western fighters as a genaralisation. Bookies can't make the lines like that, they couldn't explain it to their bosses, but humans do have subconscious tendencies like that which can produce edges.

Koreans shouldnt be lumped in together with the rest of Asian MMA... They are way closer to western MMA imo, especially in how sick much weight they cut. Lim is fucking enormous.

Duno enough about either of them to want to predict anything, just think Korea is very different from China or even Japan.

EDIT: Not that I imagine the matchups are always the fairest, but I remember seeing a stat during a Road FC event last year of Koreans vs Japanese fighters in Road FC's history, and it was like 60/40 or 66/33 winrate in favour of Korea (massive reversal from the days of Pride). But it goes to my point of on average Korean fighters are more similar to western ones - good wrestling, awesomely conditioned and cut a ton of weight so they are fairly huge for their weightclasses.

On May 13 2015 07:57 TianYuan wrote: Koreans shouldnt be lumped in together with the rest of Asian MMA... They are way closer to western MMA imo,

Sounds right, Koreans and Japanese are closer to western MMA than other parts of Asia.