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UFC on FOX 15: Machida vs. Rockhold

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PuertoRican   United States. Apr 12 2015 19:17. Posts 13023

Date: Saturday, April 18th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:30 LP.net / 1:30pm PST / 4:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (FOX): 23:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (FOX)

Lyoto Machida (22-5) vs. Luke Rockhold (13-2) (Middleweight)
Ronaldo Souza (21-3) vs. Chris Camozzi (20-9) (Middleweight)
Cub Swanson (21-6) vs. Max Holloway (12-3) (Featherweight)
Felice Herrig (10-5) vs. Paige VanZant (4-1) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox)

Jim Miller (24-5) vs. Beneil Dariush (10-1) (Lightweight)
Ovince Saint Preux (17-6) vs. Patrick Cummins (7-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Corey Anderson (5-0) vs. Gian Villante (12-5) (Light Heavyweight)
Takeya Mizugaki (20-8-2) vs. Aljamain Sterling (10-0) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

George Sullivan (16-3) vs. Tim Means (23-6-1) (Welterweight)
Diego Brandao (18-10) vs. Jimy Hettes (11-2) (Featherweight)
Eddie Gordon (7-2) vs. Chris Dempsey (10-2) (Middleweight)

Other

- Manvel Gamburyan was expected to face Aljamain Sterling at the event. However on February 3, Gamburyan pulled out of the bout citing injury and was replaced by Takeya Mizugaki.
- A middleweight bout between Ronaldo Souza and Yoel Romero was originally booked for UFC 184. However, the bout was cancelled due to Souza being struck with pneumonia. The fight was later rescheduled for this event. However on April 10, Romero pulled out of the bout due to a ligament and meniscus tear in his knee. On the next day, Chris Camozzi was announced as his replacement. This fight will be a rematch as Souza defeated Camozzi by technical submission (arm-triangle choke) at UFC on FX 8.
- A featherweight bout between Diego Brandão and Jimy Hettes was originally booked for UFC 183. However, the bout was canceled right before the event started, as Hettes passed out backstage. The fight was later rescheduled for this event.
- George Sullivan was expected to face Kenny Robertson at the event. However, Robertson pulled out of the bout citing injury and was replaced by Tim Means.
- Nick Catone was expected to face Vitor Miranda at the event. However, Catone abruptly announced his retirement on March 25, citing a litany of injuries and a history of chronic back pain. With a rib injury, Miranda was also pulled from the card. According to the promotion, a replacement fight will be announced shortly.
- Paul Felder was expected to face Jim Miller at this event. However, Felder was forced to pull out of the event due to a knee injury and was replaced by Beneil Dariush.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 12 2015 19:24. Posts 13023




----------

First impression of the match-ups:

• Rockhold > Machida
• Souza > Camozzi
• Swanson > Holloway
• PVZ > Herrig
• Dariush > Miller
• OSP > Cummins
• Anderson > Villante
• Sterling > Mizugaki
• Sullivan > Means
• Brandao > Hettes
• Gordon > Dempsey

Rekrul is a newb 

gebbstet   Sweden. Apr 12 2015 19:59. Posts 391

So they resigned camozzi and give him the nr 1 contenter after going 0-4 and being cut in his last stint. What makes it even more absurd is that they have already fought before and camozzi got subbed in r1.


Floofy   Canada. Apr 12 2015 20:11. Posts 8708

I'm not sure what madness is happening with Swanson's line. He opened at -190, which seemed about right, but hes now -150. I expected it to be much higher.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

soberstone   United States. Apr 12 2015 20:31. Posts 2662

Good card... was great until Romero got hurt and they pulled the travesty of a lifetime and inserted Camozzi back in to get starched. Unbelievable, would have rather them just scrapped the fight and put Souza on another card with a top 20 MW. Camozzi is literally a top 50 MW in the world... at best. Also bummed Felder got pulled, I think he's gonna be in title contention within a year or so and the Miller fight would have been a perfect test. Nonetheless, great matchmaking in terms of parody, really close fights.

Anyway,

Rockhold > Machida - Odds look right, tough fight to visualize because something tells me Rockhold will win on points

Souza > Camozzi - Squash match, Souza in Rd 1

Swanson v Holloway - Pickem, will bet a small one on Holloway if he's +140 or better.

PVZ v Herrig - Pickem, will probably bet a small one on Herrig if she gets to +140. PVZ will win if she's continued to improve which is what the UFC is banking on but I definitely don't see how she's more than a slight favorite.

Dariush > Miller - Close to a pickem, will obviously bet a nice one on Miller, don't understand the odds at all (*when I wrote this Miller was at +200, now it's closer but he's still at +160). Both fighters are fairly well-rounded with Dariush probably being a bit better of a grappler and Miller being more technical on the feet. Cardio and athleticism probably make Dariush the slight fav but think the odds are way too wide. Miller is a good test for Beneil, not a jobber fight like the odds are almost reflecting.

Cummins > OSP - OSP may have learned a lot from the Bader fight but Cummins should be able to replicate the wrestling dominance over 3 rounds and take 2 of'em. If the odds move to a pickem I'll take Cummins, if not I'll stay away.

Anderson > Villante - Odds are about right, won't touch it

Sterling > Mizugaki - Sterling seems like he should be top 5 within a year, Mizugaki is very good but not dangerous, Al-Jo should put together a nice well-rounded performance.

Means > Sullivan - Like the odds on Means, small bet on him probably, seams like a great style matchup for him to keep rolling with the violence. Sullivan is tough but Means is violent enough to put it on him early and break him, he just needs to start fast.

Brandao > Hettes - Odds are about right, won't touch it. Hettes is a fun grappler but just has a losing style, especially in a world where everyone's sub defense is good and probably will get cut sooner rather than later.

Gordon > Dempsey - Probably via wrestlefuck, not impressed with Gordon though, loved watching him get KTFO by Salmon.


 Last edit: 13/04/2015 16:40

soberstone   United States. Apr 12 2015 20:36. Posts 2662


  On April 12 2015 19:11 Floofy wrote:
I'm not sure what madness is happening with Swanson's line. He opened at -190, which seemed about right, but hes now -150. I expected it to be much higher.



Holloway is really good. Swanson has the physical advantages (power, speed) but Holloway is in my opinion a bit more technical with his striking/footwork and is getting better every time. His decision vs Bermudez was bullshit and his chin is pretty nutty - he ate McGregor's shots better than anyone else has. So you gotta think it's going to the cards and if he throws more volume and has the reach and technical advantages, even if Swanson's individual shots will do more damage, I don't see how you can handicap this one very wide.

+ He's got the youth / career arch advantage and the arm-chair psychologist in me knows all the pressure is on Swanson for this one. If he loses, he's pretty fucked.

I understand where you are coming from though, I was actually expecting and hoping the odds on this one would be Swanson -200 or better and I was gonna make a big bet on Max.

 Last edit: 13/04/2015 00:09

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 12 2015 21:09. Posts 13023

$1,000 free roll: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/5586455

Rekrul is a newb 

Minsk   United States. Apr 12 2015 23:05. Posts 1558

Great card. Tim Means seems to be on like every card.

 Last edit: 13/04/2015 17:13

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 13 2015 04:01. Posts 13023



Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 13/04/2015 06:28

gebbstet   Sweden. Apr 13 2015 18:21. Posts 391

Can someone explain why Mizugaki is the the underdog against sterling? Seems like a pretty big step up in competition compared to the guys he fought before.

 Last edit: 13/04/2015 18:26

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 13 2015 19:14. Posts 13023

Mizugaki is similar to Hugo Viana, Sterling's last opponent. Sterling is also from New York, so he'll have that on his side if it's a close decision.

I personally think Sterling is better than Mizugaki in all areas that matter. However, if Mizugaki can stop the take downs, and is aggressive with his striking, he could win a decision. Sterling has more ways to win, so it's a tough fight for Mizugaki.

Rekrul is a newb 

Minsk   United States. Apr 13 2015 21:23. Posts 1558

I think Rockhold is kind-of a beast physically and don't see Machida being able to stand blow for blow with him. So Machida will need to use one of his "special tactics" styles. So really the question becomes "is Rockhold dumb enough to play into Machida's games?" I don't see any reason for him to be, and I think the'res value on Rockhold. If they both use the information provided to them properly, then Rockhold should win.


PuertoRican   United States. Apr 13 2015 22:04. Posts 13023


  On April 12 2015 20:09 PuertoRican wrote:
$1,000 free roll: https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/5586455



$100 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/40918...on-fox-15-machida-vs-rockhold-T-free/

Rekrul is a newb 

Minsk   United States. Apr 13 2015 22:13. Posts 1558

On the other hand, after watching Rockhold's last fight. It's hard to say whether he will have the speed to be able to stand with Machida...


Minsk   United States. Apr 13 2015 22:22. Posts 1558

I'm leaning more towards Machida now. I think he will have too much hand speed and timing and be rather unconcerned about the dangers of Rockhold. They might not be on the same level too. Rockhold has looked good against weak competition, he might not be able to beat top competiion, then his whole seemingly powerful skillset just vanishes.


soberstone   United States. Apr 14 2015 02:02. Posts 2662


  On April 13 2015 21:22 Minsk wrote:
I'm leaning more towards Machida now. I think he will have too much hand speed and timing and be rather unconcerned about the dangers of Rockhold. They might not be on the same level too. Rockhold has looked good against weak competition, he might not be able to beat top competiion, then his whole seemingly powerful skillset just vanishes.



He definitely can beat Top-Competition. He already beat Jacare in Strikeforce (yes, I do recognize both guys are probably much better now) and I think he's Weidman's toughest potential challenge. The guy holds his own against DC and Cain in the gym supposedly. But Lyoto is just a guy that you never make a guy a huge favorite against, he's too good and 50/50ish, a close decision is a great possibility.... the odds just seem pretty damn spot on here to me. If I do bet it'll probably be on Rockhold if I can get him at like -120, but I honestly think the odds are gonna get wider after weigh-ins and everyone Oos and Awws over how much bigger Rockhold will be. So if you're gonna play Machida, wait until after weigh-ins.

 Last edit: 14/04/2015 02:03

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 14 2015 02:25. Posts 13023

Rekrul is a newb 

Floofy   Canada. Apr 14 2015 03:54. Posts 8708


  On April 14 2015 01:02 soberstone wrote:
Show nested quote +



He definitely can beat Top-Competition. He already beat Jacare in Strikeforce (yes, I do recognize both guys are probably much better now) and I think he's Weidman's toughest potential challenge. The guy holds his own against DC and Cain in the gym supposedly. But Lyoto is just a guy that you never make a guy a huge favorite against, he's too good and 50/50ish, a close decision is a great possibility.... the odds just seem pretty damn spot on here to me. If I do bet it'll probably be on Rockhold if I can get him at like -120, but I honestly think the odds are gonna get wider after weigh-ins and everyone Oos and Awws over how much bigger Rockhold will be. So if you're gonna play Machida, wait until after weigh-ins.


Agreed with u man, true odds are probably close to -130 for RockHold imo.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

MysticJoey   Poland. Apr 14 2015 10:00. Posts 1430

fuck, so sad romero wont be there, would be a great fight


whamm!   Albania. Apr 14 2015 13:06. Posts 11625

rockhold is a giant. Machida gets KO'ed


 
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