UFC FN 63: Mendes vs. Lamas

Date: Saturday, April 4th
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2): 16:00 LP.net / 8am PST / 11am EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 18:00 LP.net / 10am PST / 1pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Chad Mendes (16-2) vs. Ricardo Lamas (15-3) (Featherweight)
Jorge Masvidal (28-8) vs. Al Iaquinta (11-3-1) (Lightweight)
Michael Chiesa (11-2) vs. Mitch Clarke (11-2) (Lightweight)
Julianna Pena (5-2) vs. Milana Dudieva (11-3) (Women's Bantamweight)
Clay Guida (31-15) vs. Robbie Peralta (18-5) (Featherweight)
Dustin Poirier (16-4) vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-1) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Liz Carmouche (9-5) vs. Lauren Murphy (8-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Gray Maynard (11-4-1) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (21-6-1) (Lightweight)
Shamil Abdurakhimov (15-2) vs. Timothy Johnson (8-1) (Heavyweight)
Ron Stallings (12-7) vs. Justin Jones (3-1) (Middleweight)

Other

- Jorge Masvidal was briefly linked to a bout with Bobby Green at the event. However, shortly after the bout was announced by the UFC, Green pulled out of the bout citing a leg injury and was replaced by former WEC & UFC Lightweight champion Benson Henderson. Subsequently, Henderson was removed from the bout with Masvidal as he was tabbed as a replacement for Stephen Thompson to face Brandon Thatch in the event headliner on February 14, 2015 at UFC Fight Night 60. On February 2, Al Iaquinta was announced as Masvidal's new opponent.
- Clint Hester was expected to face Luke Barnatt at this event. However, Hester pulled out of the fight in early March due to a foot injury. Subsequently, Barnatt was pulled from the card entirely in favor of a matchup with Mark Munoz in May at UFC Fight Night 66.

First impression of the match-ups:

- Mendes > Lamas (Lamas is once again being underrated by the bookies and general public. Lamas has above average wrestling, the better BJJ of the two, and his punching power gets overlooked because he doesn't stand and bang like other guys. I wouldn't be surprised to see Lamas clip Mendes and win via finish. I kinda like u3.5 @ +135 because Mendes is the faster of the two with betting boxing and wrestling, and he could overwhelm Lamas within the first two rounds and get a TKO, or get caught trying.)
- Masvidal > Iaquinta (Masvidal ML -120, I already have $100 on Masvidal.)
- Chiesa > Clarke
- Pena > Dudieva (u2.5 rounds @ +145.)
- Guida > Peralta (By decision.)
- Poirier > Ferreira
- Carmouche > Murphy (This is one you'd bet big on Carmouche pre-fight at evens, then live bet Murphy after round 1 as a hedge, since Carmouche will most likely win the first round and then not be as aggressive in rounds 2 and 3. Murphy is hard to finish, and Carmouche is a finisher.)
- Yakovlev > Maynard
- Abdurakhimov vs. Johnson (Dunno, don't care.)
- Stallings vs. Jones (Dunno, don't care.)

Al Iaquinta vs. Ross Pearson


Chad Mendes vs. Clay Guida


Ricardo Lamas vs. Dennis Bermudez

Here is mine. Its based on odds thought.


- Mendes < Lamas. Even tho Mendes is probably rightfully the favorite, i don't think the -440 odds are justified. Lamas has 5 inch advantage and is an amazing fighter.

- Masvidal > Iaquinta. Masvidal seems way better. The bookies's odds seemed right at -190, idk why they went down.

- Chiesa > Clarke. Clarke looks like an amateur compared to Chielsa imo.

- Pena > Dudieva. Way better range, way better ground game, Duediva also fights like a heavyweight but whitout their power.

- Guida < Peralta I think at +220 or so, Peralta is a good bet. Guida is the better fighter, but i think odds are a bit off. Peralta could surprise us imo.

- Poirier < Ferreira Poirrier is overrated imo. Its also his first fight at Lightweight, and Ferreira is pretty good. I love Ferreira at +150.

- Carmouche < Murphy I disagree with most good betters here. Most say Carmouche is way better, but for some reasons i think Murphy has this. But since everyone with a clue about mma disagree with me, i'm shy to bet on Murphy lol

- Yakovlev < Maynard. I know most people think Maynard is done, too old, etc, but i think he has this.

- Abdurakhimov vs. Johnson. I love Johnson at +230. I only watched one fight of each fighters, but Johnson didnt seem like a +230 underdog at all. He also won all of his recent fights in a very dominating way.

- Stallings vs. Jones. I'm confused about this one. I think its close. I would put a bet on either fighter if he went +150 or better.

Iaquinta vs Masvidal is a very interesting fight.

I just bet a parlay on Mendes + Iaquinta.

I think Mendes is still Ev+ at -440, he and Jose Aldo are right now the best by far and Lamas didnt look good at all against Aldo, I think he has no chance against Chad.

I like Iaquinta, he has a good future IMO and he gets better with every fight.

Odds on lamas r ridiculously good. Single betting lamas, dude is underrated, his past fights shows how good this guy is, pretty similar to the dos anjos scenario, people kept ignoring the signs in his past fights and basically odd makers favourited the more popular name, Pettis and hendo in this case mendes.

Lamas will get this done, mendes' last fight he got beat up, and he said in an interview that after Jose rocked him in the first round, it affected him for the rest of the fight, he said something like everytime he got hit by Jose after the first round he was easily rocked.

Edit: interview with mendes was on mmahour this week or last week, can't remember.

On April 01 2015 00:57 jvilla777 wrote: Odds on lamas r ridiculously good. Single betting lamas, dude is underrated, his past fights shows how good this guy is, pretty similar to the dos anjos scenario, people kept ignoring the signs in his past fights and basically odd makers favourited the more popular name, Pettis and hendo in this case mendes. Lamas will get this done, mendes' last fight he got beat up, and he said in an interview that after Jose rocked him in the first round, it affected him for the rest of the fight, he said something like everytime he got hit by Jose after the first round he was easily rocked. Edit: interview with mendes was on mmahour this week or last week, can't remember.

I think its a bit different.

RDA's odds were crazy good because i honneslty think he should have been the favorite comming into this fight.
Lamas probably is rightfully the underdog, but not a +400 big underdog. I will definelty try to bet him at +400 or better

Mistake people are doing is thinking "Mendes did better than Lamas against Aldo, therefore he is clearly much better!!!". This doesn't always work in MMA. Rumble crushed Gus, Jones barely won a decision. That doesn't mean Rumble will easily beat Jones.

I think both Mendes and Lamas are amazing fighters who have been dominant against every1 except Aldo. the outcome of the fight isn't that easy to guess imo.

@floofy yeah true you are right. I'm not saying that lamas should be the favourite, but the lines should be closer.

I usually don't bet till I see the weigh in but I can't pass this up, lamas' odds are super good, he's currently +4.15 at this Australian betting site.

On April 01 2015 01:31 jvilla777 wrote: @floofy yeah true you are right. I'm not saying that lamas should be the favourite, but the lines should be closer. I usually don't bet till I see the weigh in but I can't pass this up, lamas' odds are super good, he's currently +4.15 at this Australian betting site.

+415 is too good man, don't pass it up.
I use 5dimes and hes +350, which is why i'm waiting.

Hell, you can get mendes for -406 on Pinnacle.

I don't think Lamas has that much of a chance against the pace that Mendes fights at. I just don't think that he will be able to handle that pace, but sometimes he will get lucky and I feel like those odds are accurate.

edit

Honestly I think Chad is just too fast and powerful for llamas. The difference in athleticsm is ridiculous. I think the odds are justified.

I really like Raging Al. Probably because he's from Serra's camp and I love those guys, and his boxing is sweet. Mixes it up really well. That said Gamebreds defense and elusiveness is probably too much for him and I think he takes a decision often and is prob a good bet at -135, though I'll be rooting for Al.

- Mendes > Lamas - Fight is closer on paper but I don't think it will be
- Iaquinta > Masvidal - Close to a pickem as you can get I'd think. Rooting for Al though.
- Chiesa > Clarke
- Pena > Dudieva - Pena isn't anything special
- Guida > Peralta - I think Guida's still got enough to make it his type of fight and win a decision
- Poirier > Ferreira - Not close, love the odds on Poirier
- Murphy > Carmouche - Close but I think Murphy is better on the feet and if she loses it'll be via wrestlefuck and that's likely but not probable
- Yakovlev > Maynard - Chin is so shot, I think Yakovlev can find it at some point, wouldn't bet on it though

Will bet tonight and post picks.

No clue on the first two fights.

This is a cool card for a Saturday AM Fox Sports 1 deal, I dig it.

On April 03 2015 00:13 soberstone wrote: - Mendes > Lamas - Fight is closer on paper but I don't think it will be - Iaquinta > Masvidal - Close to a pickem as you can get I'd think. Rooting for Al though. - Chiesa > Clarke - Pena > Dudieva - Pena isn't anything special - Guida > Peralta - I think Guida's still got enough to make it his type of fight and win a decision - Poirier > Ferreira - Not close, love the odds on Poirier - Murphy > Carmouche - Close but I think Murphy is better on the feet and if she loses it'll be via wrestlefuck and that's likely but not probable - Yakovlev > Maynard - Chin is so shot, I think Yakovlev can find it at some point, wouldn't bet on it though Will bet tonight and post picks. No clue on the first two fights. This is a cool card for a Saturday AM Fox Sports 1 deal, I dig it.

Cool i'm not the only one who favors Murphy

Mind to explain why are ur so confident on Poirier? I mean he just moved up a weight class, and he's comming off a loss.

On April 03 2015 00:21 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On April 03 2015 00:13 soberstone wrote: - Mendes > Lamas - Fight is closer on paper but I don't think it will be - Iaquinta > Masvidal - Close to a pickem as you can get I'd think. Rooting for Al though. - Chiesa > Clarke - Pena > Dudieva - Pena isn't anything special - Guida > Peralta - I think Guida's still got enough to make it his type of fight and win a decision - Poirier > Ferreira - Not close, love the odds on Poirier - Murphy > Carmouche - Close but I think Murphy is better on the feet and if she loses it'll be via wrestlefuck and that's likely but not probable - Yakovlev > Maynard - Chin is so shot, I think Yakovlev can find it at some point, wouldn't bet on it though Will bet tonight and post picks. No clue on the first two fights. This is a cool card for a Saturday AM Fox Sports 1 deal, I dig it. Cool i'm not the only one who favors Murphy Mind to explain why are ur so confident on Poirier? I mean he just moved up a weight class, and he's comming off a loss.

It's less to explain about Poirier and more about his opponent. Poirier got KO'd by McGregor, not a big deal. Ferreria isn't on his level striking wise, Poirier isn't special but he's very solid, and Ferrieria is just wild and a little powerful. Poirier's grappling and athleticism should ensure he's never in a dangerous spot on the ground with Ferreria and so it should just be a fairly easy stand-up fight for Dustin.

And man, the choke Mitch Clarke hit Al Iaquinta with so fucking slick. Like, I definitely think Masvidal is at a big advantage if it goes into a scramble battle, but that was some fluky Abu Dhabi level shit.

Ricardo Lamas (145.5) vs. Chad Mendes (145.5)
Al Iaquinta (155.5) vs. Jorge Masvidal (156)*
Michael Chiesa (155.5) vs. Mitch Clarke (155)
Milana Dudieva (135.5) vs. Julianna Pena (136)
Clay Guida (146) vs. Robbie Peralta (145)
Diego Ferreira (155.5) vs. Dustin Poirier (155.5)
Liz Carmouche (134.5) vs. Lauren Murphy (135)
Gray Maynard (155) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (155.75)
Shamil Abdurahimov (255) vs. Timothy Johnson (263.6)
Justin Jones (185.5) vs. Ron Stallings (185)

* Masvidal was 156.5 pounds on his first attempt, but made 156 on his second try.

As a reminder, this event starts at 8am PST/11am EST. Perfect for Europeans.

I went to go and open a stream, but just remembered all the fights are on Fox Sports 1... Sweet~