UFC 185: Pettis vs. dos Anjos

Date: Saturday, March 14th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 17:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (PPV)

Anthony Pettis (18-2) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (23-7) (Lightweight Championship)
Carla Esparza (10-2) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-0) (Women's Strawweight Championship)
Johny Hendricks (16-3) vs. Matt Brown (19-12) (Welterweight)
Roy Nelson (20-10) vs. Alistair Overeem (38-14) (Heavyweight)
Chris Cariaso (17-6) vs. Henry Cejudo (7-0) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (FX)

Ross Pearson (16-8) vs. Sam Stout (20-10-1) (Lightweight)
Elias Theodorou (10-0) vs. Roger Narvaez (7-1) (Middleweight)
Daron Cruickshank (16-5) vs. Beneil Dariush (9-1) (Lightweight)
Jared Rosholt (11-2) vs. Josh Copeland (9-1) (Heavyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Sergio Pettis (12-1) vs. Ryan Benoit (7-3) (Flyweight)
Jake Lindsey (9-2) vs. Joseph Duffy (12-1) (Lightweight)
Larissa Pacheco (10-1) vs. Germaine de Randamie (4-3) (Women's Bantamweight)

Other

- Vagner Rocha was expected to face promotional newcomer Joseph Duffy at the event. However, Rocha pulled out of the bout in early February and was replaced by Jake Lindsey.

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First impression of the match-ups:

- Pettis > RDA
- Esparza > JJ
- Hendricks > Brown
- Overeem > Nelson
- Cejudo > Cariaso
- Pearson > Stout
- Theodorou > Narvaez
- Dariush > Cruickshank
- Rosholt > Copeland
- Pettis > Benoit
- Duffy > Lindsey
- Randamie > Pacheco

Great card. Thanks as usual for making thread.

Pettis > RDA - Finishes it somewhere. Absolutely most lethal P4P finisher in the game vs someone who is just B+ to A- at everything, which is meant as a compliment to RDA who I have underestimated before
Esparza vs JJ - Pickem fight in my mind, I'll take the odds.
Hendricks > Brown - 3 round fight, in much better shape, arguably beat GSP and Lawler II, probably healthy as he's been in a long time - Hendricks finds the body and very well might be the first guy to finish Brown in forever.
Overeem > Nelson - Wouldn't touch it but gotta favor Reem and expect he'll either be all the way in or all the way out for most of the time, but could def get KO'd
Cejudo > Cariaso - As long as he cuts weight professionally and has stayed in shape, Cejudo however he wants, Rogan and Goldie are gonna already be talking title shot the minute this fight is over cuz of shallowness of division / Cejudo's Olympic resume
Pearson > Stout - KO likely
Theodorou > Narvaez
Cruikshank > Dariush - Watched all Dariushes fights again on fight pass and I think he's gonna underachieve what people think of him. Cruikshank is the classier striker and I expect him to be able to keep it at range enough to win a decision if he can't find the KO.
Rosholt > Copeland
Petts > Benoit
Duffy > Lindsey
Pacheco > Randemie

Pettis inside the distance, Overeem by decision, Nelson by KO and maybe Matt brown (3.80 right now, he opened with 2.90)

I was not on the Pettis hype train until the last fight with Melendez,but what i saw was impressive.He should win inside the distance.Ko i think.
Carla will be a champion for a long time and as i said in the other thread i already bet on her.In my mind it is a lock. Great odds also.Also the odds for U4,5 rounds is 2,1 which is also a great bet i think.
I can not see Brown winning at all.Hendricks is too strong and for 3 rounds he will not have any problems.If he needs he can wrestle Brown for 3 rounds and win a decicion.
I don't like Overeem and will be rooting to get knocked out.And i think it is very possible.He will wave overhand rights and even if only 1 clips Overeem he is going to sleep.
Cariaso was manhandled by DJ ,but DJ is by far the best 125 pound guy.So for him to be such a huge underdog against Cejudo is crazy.Cehudo the biggest favourite on the card?Really?!
I think Ross Pearson will win most likely a decision.
Theodoru by decision also.
Dariush is the dog here ,but i think he should be the favourite.I give him the slight edge over Cruikshank.I think the edge will be Dariush's toughness and he will win.
My suggestion-Bet your house on Carla
If you like betting on underdogs go for Dariush and Cariaso.

On March 09 2015 13:59 gryzzlybearr wrote: I was not on the Pettis hype train until the last fight with Melendez,but what i saw was impressive.He should win inside the distance.Ko i think. Carla will be a champion for a long time and as i said in the other thread i already bet on her.In my mind it is a lock. Great odds also.Also the odds for U4,5 rounds is 2,1 which is also a great bet i think. I can not see Brown winning at all.Hendricks is too strong and for 3 rounds he will not have any problems.If he needs he can wrestle Brown for 3 rounds and win a decicion. I don't like Overeem and will be rooting to get knocked out.And i think it is very possible.He will wave overhand rights and even if only 1 clips Overeem he is going to sleep. Cariaso was manhandled by DJ ,but DJ is by far the best 125 pound guy.So for him to be such a huge underdog against Cejudo is crazy.Cehudo the biggest favourite on the card?Really?! I think Ross Pearson will win most likely a decision. Theodoru by decision also. Dariush is the dog here ,but i think he should be the favourite.I give him the slight edge over Cruikshank.I think the edge will be Dariush's toughness and he will win. My suggestion-Bet your house on Carla If you like betting on underdogs go for Dariush and Cariaso.

Nice advices, I know betting on Matt Brown here may be a bad idea, but I always have faith on him so I dont know... still thinking. I agree Overeem is going to get KOed if Nelson touched him only once, but if he fights like he did against Mir he should win a decision. Thats why I am betting on Nelson by KO (+220) and Overeem by Decision (+300).

I was thinking also betting on Cariaso but I dont know, I want to see how Cejudo evolves. I decided not betting at least I am completely sure that in my opinion the bet is Ev+, thats why I dont know if I will bet on Brown also.

I like the Esparza odds, I dont know very much about that division but seems like a good bet to make.

Overeem is -205 I want to bet my bankroll. Cosmo, thoughts? p.s. Overeem is the reason why I was up $1,000 instead of $6,000 last year. Ridiculous swing for my bankroll.

Does anyone have any input on Khabib -230 vs Cerrone, and Cormier -600 vs Bader?

I put in the max ($375) on MacDonald vs Lawler at -150. Still have Rockhold vs Machida at -140 and Also vs McGregor standing open at -130.

No love for RDA? I think it is a good bet at this odds.

Carla is at -145 at some places. I like JJ but I think Esparza beats her 9 out of 10 times.

Sick card btw.

On March 09 2015 15:04 Nazgul wrote: Overeem is -205 I want to bet my bankroll.

I like the odds as well. Overeem under Greg Jackson should be winning this fight easy.

Can't get myself to bet big here though. The Reem is a bust and Roy Nelson can take a ton of punishment and needs just one right hand to win this fight.

On March 09 2015 15:23 northsails wrote: No love for RDA? I think it is a good bet at this odds. Carla is at -145 at some places. I like JJ but I think Esparza beats her 9 out of 10 times. Sick card btw.

I have so much love for RDA. I can't say the thought never crossed my mind. I'm scared of Pettis though.

I didn't follow that female TUF season at all (nor their matches after) so I barely know these ladies.

I'm really looking forward to this card.

Have bets on RDA ML [Just like the odds, I think he can win]
Hendricks ML [Don't think he can lose]

With Overreem vs Nelson its about waiting for weigh-ins. Then take a close look at them, and make a decision. I'm going to take Overreem in every case unless he looks bad and Nelson looks good.

$500 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/3940...85-pettis-vs-dos-anjos-T-free/483800/

On March 09 2015 15:23 northsails wrote: No love for RDA? I think it is a good bet at this odds. Carla is at -145 at some places. I like JJ but I think Esparza beats her 9 out of 10 times. Sick card btw.

He's definitely the best fighter Pettis has ever faced and he's got a better chance than most forum posters are giving him. He's got pretty good wrestling so if he can mix up wrestling and striking a ton he can give Pettis a really tough fight. That said Pettis is just amazing. Finishing Bendo, Melendez, and Cerrone is just fucking insane.

On March 09 2015 15:04 Nazgul wrote: Overeem is -205 I want to bet my bankroll. Cosmo, thoughts? p.s. Overeem is the reason why I was up $1,000 instead of $6,000 last year. Ridiculous swing for my bankroll. Does anyone have any input on Khabib -230 vs Cerrone, and Cormier -600 vs Bader? I put in the max ($375) on MacDonald vs Lawler at -150. Still have Rockhold vs Machida at -140 and Also vs McGregor standing open at -130.

Reem is just super high varianced because of his chin. Coupled with Roys crazy right hand.

I feel like since that's all Reem has to avoid, he will probably game plan around it and just take Roy down and smash him on the ground. Roy is tough as heck though so Reem might need to avoid the right hand for 3 rounds which is pretty tricky.

Kinda surprised you are betting on Rockhold at -140, though I do agree with it. Most people seem to think it's nuts Rockhold is the favorite. I think his volume of kicks will lead to him winning a decision vs the super inactive Machida.

On March 09 2015 19:02 Minsk wrote: With Overreem vs Nelson its about waiting for weigh-ins. Then take a close look at them, and make a decision. I'm going to take Overreem in every case unless he looks bad and Nelson looks good.

Overeem has never looked bad on the UFC scale, and Nelson has never looked good.

Congrats to myself. Finally figured this BS out. Best HL reel in the game and this is pre-Melendez submission.

On March 09 2015 20:06 PuertoRican wrote: Overeem has never looked bad on the UFC scale, and Nelson has never looked good.

Well, he has to look good for me to take him. Hes a degenerate that doesn't take good care of himself, but you can see in those situations if they've snapped out of it or not.

He looked the worst hes looked last 2 fights and has been pretty terrible, hes either going to be there for the check or in Rocky mode. I'm honestly a little scared for him even in Rocky mode, even though its a good matchup, might not take him, but definitely taking Overreem otherwise.

I'm worried about RDA losing in a leveling way, but the more I think about it the better I feel about it. He puts on a high pace that hopefully wont give Pettis enough room to breathe to level him, and was talking correctly in an interview.

Pettis weakness is an RDA style actually. Pettis is great on offense, and fine on defense when he feels comfortable. But against constant pressure that wont let him get a counter setup because of speed and spontaneousness, thats what will give him trouble. I thought Melendez would do it and took him at 2.75, but he turned out too slow and preditable, and I underestimated Pettis, didn't realize he was a monster, it was a bad bet. But now I get RDA at 4.45.

single pot betting on Joana here. Not betting the others till I see the weigh ins.