PuertoRican United States. Feb 17 2015 05:57. Posts 13044
Date: Sunday, February 22nd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 16:30 LP.net / 2:30pm PST / 5:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 17:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)
- T.J. Waldburger fainted in the sauna, fight with Wendell Oliveira pulled from UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs. Mir.
- A light heavyweight bout between Rashad Evans and Glover Teixeira was expected to serve as the event headliner. However, on January 7, Teixeira was forced out of the bout as his knee, injured in his last fight, was slow to heal and he was unable to resume the proper training to prepare for the fight in that time frame. Evans is expected to be rebooked at a different event with possibly a new opponent.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 22/02/2015 04:44
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 17 2015 06:01. Posts 13044
First impression of the match-ups:
- Silva vs. Mir (dunno, but I'm leaning Mir at +220 or better.)
- Barboza > Johnson
- Ferreira > Alvey
- Khabilov > Martins
- Alcantara > Saenz
- Ponzinibbio > Strickland
- Reneau > Andrade
- Macario > Dwyer
- Trator vs. Torre (dunno)
- Oliveira > Waldburger
- Gibson > Andrade
- Jorge > Shockley
PuertoRican United States. Feb 17 2015 08:53. Posts 13044
On February 17 2015 05:14 Nazgul wrote:
Any fights you like besides the top two?
At the moment, my biggest play on the card will be a parlay of Khabilov and Alcantara.
I'm waiting for people to pound Jessica's line so I can get a better price on Marion. Marion has better technical striking and BJJ and is taller, while Jessica is an in-your-face brawler that wins via aggression. It seems like a good place to go big on Marion pre-fight, then live bet Jessica after round 1 or 2. +190 was a juicy line, but the line isn't released yet on Bookmaker.
I will definitely bet on Bigfoot, Mir has no chance against like anybody in the division right now. It may be my only bet in this event I will investigate Reneau and decide if I should bet on her.
Pretty decent main card imo.
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JonnyCosMo United States. Feb 17 2015 20:08. Posts 7292
I actually think Bigfoot is pretty bad. I mean his only "real" win in the past couple years was that Overeem win, but as I've said before, Overeem is total garbage so it's not like thats much. I'm leaning towards betting Mir. Mir is quick enough to catch him on the chin, Bigfoot is just really slow with his striking. Weather or not Mir has enough power to put him away is another story, but I feel good about Mir's chances in this fight.
Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser
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Minsk United States. Feb 17 2015 22:41. Posts 1558
I like the odds on Mir, I think its a good matchup for him. I think its really around 50/50,unless hes completely out of it.
Last edit: 18/02/2015 01:49
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soberstone United States. Feb 17 2015 23:37. Posts 2662
Bigfoot post TRT is like the biggest downslide I've seen. I expect Vitor to be similar. I think this fight is a pickem. Lovin the Mir odds.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 18 2015 01:48. Posts 13044
Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now.
I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else.
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Feb 18 2015 02:21. Posts 2662
On February 18 2015 00:48 PuertoRican wrote:
Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now.
I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else.
Yah I'm really thinking about moving to 5-dimes. I'm on bookmaker too and loved the Khabilov opening line but the juice isn't worth the squeeze now. I don't much about Frankie Saenz but doubt he has much for Alcantara who is definitely a fringe top 10 guy, but at -350 Alcantara has been through a lot of wars and I wouldn't love it vs some up and comer. I was on the same parlay as you when Rustam was at -210 or w/e and Alcantara was like -300.
Not touching the Mutante fight because he's chinny and Alvey hits hard but he should win handily.
I think I like Mir and Michael Johnson where they are at right now but will probably just let it play out until fight day.
Also, Cody Gibson I really like, he should probably smoke this Douglas Silva guy but I gotta watch me some tape because I can't keep these shitty undercard Brazilians in my memory bank.
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 18 2015 03:35. Posts 13044
On February 18 2015 00:48 PuertoRican wrote:
Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now.
I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else.
Yah I'm really thinking about moving to 5-dimes. I'm on bookmaker too and loved the Khabilov opening line but the juice isn't worth the squeeze now. I don't much about Frankie Saenz but doubt he has much for Alcantara who is definitely a fringe top 10 guy, but at -350 Alcantara has been through a lot of wars and I wouldn't love it vs some up and comer. I was on the same parlay as you when Rustam was at -210 or w/e and Alcantara was like -300.
Not touching the Mutante fight because he's chinny and Alvey hits hard but he should win handily.
I think I like Mir and Michael Johnson where they are at right now but will probably just let it play out until fight day.
Also, Cody Gibson I really like, he should probably smoke this Douglas Silva guy but I gotta watch me some tape because I can't keep these shitty undercard Brazilians in my memory bank.
The only reason I moved from 5dimes to Bookmaker almost a year ago is because Bookmaker has true live betting, while 5dimes only offers in between round live betting. If there was no live betting, nobody would ever leave 5dimes because it's easily the best website.
I miss being able to get lines early, reduced juice lines, +3.5 lines pre-fight, good prop lines that are released early, being able to parlay props where I can turn $3 into $50-$100, etc.
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Feb 18 2015 03:47. Posts 2662
On February 18 2015 00:48 PuertoRican wrote:
Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now.
I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else.
Yah I'm really thinking about moving to 5-dimes. I'm on bookmaker too and loved the Khabilov opening line but the juice isn't worth the squeeze now. I don't much about Frankie Saenz but doubt he has much for Alcantara who is definitely a fringe top 10 guy, but at -350 Alcantara has been through a lot of wars and I wouldn't love it vs some up and comer. I was on the same parlay as you when Rustam was at -210 or w/e and Alcantara was like -300.
Not touching the Mutante fight because he's chinny and Alvey hits hard but he should win handily.
I think I like Mir and Michael Johnson where they are at right now but will probably just let it play out until fight day.
Also, Cody Gibson I really like, he should probably smoke this Douglas Silva guy but I gotta watch me some tape because I can't keep these shitty undercard Brazilians in my memory bank.
The only reason I moved from 5dimes to Bookmaker almost a year ago is because Bookmaker has true live betting, while 5dimes only offers in between round live betting. If there was no live betting, nobody would ever leave 5dimes because it's easily the best website.
I miss being able to get lines early, reduced juice lines, +3.5 lines pre-fight, good prop lines that are released early, being able to parlay props where I can turn $3 into $50-$100, etc.
Really? I didn't even realize the live betting on Bookmaker was legit... I thought I had checked that out and never saw anything. I'll look for that on Sunday. Nonetheless, I'll probably have money on both sites in the near future. The early lines really are just juicy as fuck.
Even last weekend for instance, which Thatch killed all my parlays so it wouldn't have made a difference, you had Borg who moved from -360 to -1000, Magny who moved from -305 to -900, and Holloway from -350 to -420, and Skelly from -170 to -240... all lines I wanted to jump on (even though I think the Skelly bet turned out to be a bad one, despite the win). That's an insane leap in value. I don't know if that's normal but holy shit those early lines were such easy money.
The Borg line was especially insane. He wins that 99/100 times, hindsight being 20/20 and all.
Last edit: 18/02/2015 03:50
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 18 2015 04:12. Posts 13044
On February 18 2015 00:48 PuertoRican wrote:
Alcantara and Khabilov opened at over 3.5 to 1 on Bookmaker, so parlaying them like I originally wanted to isn't worth much now.
I bet the Macario fight to go o1.5 rounds. Waiting for additional line movement before I bet anything else.
Yah I'm really thinking about moving to 5-dimes. I'm on bookmaker too and loved the Khabilov opening line but the juice isn't worth the squeeze now. I don't much about Frankie Saenz but doubt he has much for Alcantara who is definitely a fringe top 10 guy, but at -350 Alcantara has been through a lot of wars and I wouldn't love it vs some up and comer. I was on the same parlay as you when Rustam was at -210 or w/e and Alcantara was like -300.
Not touching the Mutante fight because he's chinny and Alvey hits hard but he should win handily.
I think I like Mir and Michael Johnson where they are at right now but will probably just let it play out until fight day.
Also, Cody Gibson I really like, he should probably smoke this Douglas Silva guy but I gotta watch me some tape because I can't keep these shitty undercard Brazilians in my memory bank.
The only reason I moved from 5dimes to Bookmaker almost a year ago is because Bookmaker has true live betting, while 5dimes only offers in between round live betting. If there was no live betting, nobody would ever leave 5dimes because it's easily the best website.
I miss being able to get lines early, reduced juice lines, +3.5 lines pre-fight, good prop lines that are released early, being able to parlay props where I can turn $3 into $50-$100, etc.
Really? I didn't even realize the live betting on Bookmaker was legit... I thought I had checked that out and never saw anything. I'll look for that on Sunday. Nonetheless, I'll probably have money on both sites in the near future. The early lines really are just juicy as fuck.
Even last weekend for instance, which Thatch killed all my parlays so it wouldn't have made a difference, you had Borg who moved from -360 to -1000, Magny who moved from -305 to -900, and Holloway from -350 to -420, and Skelly from -170 to -240... all lines I wanted to jump on (even though I think the Skelly bet turned out to be a bad one, despite the win). That's an insane leap in value. I don't know if that's normal but holy shit those early lines were such easy money.
The Borg line was especially insane. He wins that 99/100 times, hindsight being 20/20 and all.
Yeah, the live betting at Bookmaker is legit. I pretty much depend on it these days, since all of the cool lines at 5dimes aren't available on Bookmaker like I already mentioned.
Michael Johnson was at +200 earlier today on 5dimes, but only a few people got it. After that, the lines shifted and now he's only +115. I'll lay a nice sized bet on Barboza when he gets to -135 or better.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 18/02/2015 04:15
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traxamillion United States. Feb 18 2015 09:19. Posts 10468
I've just started trying to learn fighting a couple days ago.
Seems to me lesnar could have got out of that submission or at least resisted it a little longer but he didn't react at all and moved the worst way possible against the direction mir was turning his foot/leg. Seems like if Lesnar had rolled the other way and used his arms to throw his body around onto his stomach his leg would have turned with the submission and then he would have had plenty of leverage from that position to yank his leg out. Mir could try taking it back the other way but i think if lesnar made it to his stomach he could snap pull out of that. am i wrong was he doomed soon as mir got the leg?
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traxamillion United States. Feb 18 2015 09:26. Posts 10468
ok nevermind i watched the rest of the video and saw it more clearly. I was looking at it wrong. Mir was hyperextending lesnar's knee not twisting it and looked like once mir's foot was hooked to his other leg brock was fucked
On February 17 2015 05:01 PuertoRican wrote:
First impression of the match-ups:
- Silva vs. Mir (dunno, but I'm leaning Mir at +220 or better.)
- Barboza > Johnson
- Ferreira > Alvey
- Khabilov > Martins
- Alcantara > Saenz
- Ponzinibbio > Strickland
- Reneau > Andrade
- Macario > Dwyer
- Trator vs. Torre (dunno)
- Oliveira > Waldburger
- Gibson > Andrade
- Jorge > Shockley
Why you think Ponzinibbio will defeat Strickland?
Strickland is undefeated, but he hasn't impressed me yet in the UFC. He beat McDaniels, but that guy sucks. Most people thought he lost against Barnatt, including me. This time, he'll 've fighting in Brazil where he won't be gifted any decisions against Ponz. Ponz has the better striking imo, and Strickland doesn't have amazing take downs or anything. Also, Ponz improves with each fight I've seen of his.
I should've just said I pick and bet Ponz to win, even though Strickland is more established and I guess the rightful favorite. Ponz +160 or better for me.
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Feb 18 2015 19:37. Posts 2662
The Michael Johnson vs Barboza fight is literally the only fight on the card that has any kind of immediate ramifications as far as their respective divisions go and is the people's main event. I'm excited for this fight.
Heard Michael Johnson talking about how the Blackzilians brought in Nikki Holtzken who is probably the best pure kickboxer in the world near Johnson's weightclass and he said by the end of it he was able to hold his own in the pure kickboxing department. I highly doubt that's completely true but I still like the fact that he was training with that beast. Dude is insanely good. If that's even remotely true Barboza isn't gonna seem so scary. All that said if I had a gun to my head I'd pick Barboza, but I really did like Johnson at big + odds. He strikes well and has power and isn't gonna be an idiot like Bobby Green was, plus he has very good footwork so he can possibly stay out of kicking range and then get into the pocket where he will excel, decent wrestling (although I think this one stays on the feet the whole time as I doubt he can take down Edson at this point), and if you touch Barboza clean its over - he's chinny as fuck. Gonna be a fun one I hope.
In the Mir fight, I just think there is a really good chance you see the worst, slowest Bigfoot ever. If not, you can probably bet good money he's on something as this is in Brazil.
Khabilov should be able to rag-doll Martins and not fall into any submissions, I don't even know if a single Dagistani has been submitted in the UFC besides when Benson jumped on the gassed Khabilov in the 4th round of their fight after a sick lead uppercut.
Still don't know shit about Saenz but Alcantara is very good and well-rounded.
Last edit: 18/02/2015 19:41
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soberstone United States. Feb 18 2015 20:20. Posts 2662
On February 18 2015 08:26 traxamillion wrote:
ok nevermind i watched the rest of the video and saw it more clearly. I was looking at it wrong. Mir was hyperextending lesnar's knee not twisting it and looked like once mir's foot was hooked to his other leg brock was fucked
Yah it's basically an armbar but with the knee so the way to defend is by scooting closer / rolling over to put pressure back on the joint.
Coming into that fight, Brock Lesnar was literally just a monster of a human being who was a very good wrestler with power in his hands and absolutely no other technique to speak of. It was a cool moment because it was like a throwback to the early UFC's where Royce Gracie would just choke out dudes that outweighed him by like 100 lbs.
The funny part about Jiu-Jitsu though is that it takes thousands of hours of intense training to master offensive transitions and submissions but only like blue-belt level training + insane athleticism / wrestling to be able to defend pretty much everything in MMA (unless you are going against a top tier black-belt like Jacare or Damian Maia).
That's why in Brock Lesnar's later fights he dominated everybody until he ran into Cain. (than roided out Overeem)
That's also why pretty much all submissions in MMA these days are a result of:
A) Being hurt from strikes first
B) Being gassed out
C) Just slipping on the banana peel and making a huge mistake like leaving your neck exposed for a guillotine while shooting for a takedown
I love seeing submissions that result from stuff other than these 3 because they are rare and awesome and artistic as hell
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PuertoRican United States. Feb 18 2015 22:07. Posts 13044
Netherlands. Feb 17 2015 06:14. Posts 7080
