PuertoRican United States. Feb 08 2015 22:52. Posts 13044
Date: Saturday, February 14th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:30 LP.net / 4:30pm PST / 7:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)
- Nik Lentz vs. Levan Makashvili was cancelled prior to the weigh-ins, as Lentz had the flu and wasn't allowed to fight.
- A welterweight bout between Matt Brown and Tarec Saffiedine was expected to serve as the event headliner. However, on January 1, the UFC announced that Saffiedine had pulled out of the bout, citing a groin injury he sustained in training. On January 13, Brown was pulled from the event in favor of a matchup with former UFC Welterweight Champion Johny Hendricks at UFC 185. Subsequently, a welterweight bout between Stephen Thompson and Brandon Thatch was promoted to the main event. In turn, Thompson pulled out of the fight on January 30, citing a rib injury. After UFC 183, it was announced that former UFC Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson agreed to step up as a replacement on 14 days notice.
- Jake Lindsey was scheduled to face James Moontasri at the event. However on January 26, Lindsey pulled out of the bout citing injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Cody Pfister.
- Thiago Tavares was expected to face Nik Lentz at the event. However in late January, Tavares pulled out of the bout citing injury and was replaced five days later by promotional newcomer Levan Makashvili.
Shitty event. I will only bet on Henderson by decision (+280), great odds imo.
Last edit: 09/02/2015 03:18
3
PuertoRican United States. Feb 09 2015 04:29. Posts 13044
Seems like LP was updated recently. Bullet points don't show up in this thread, and the bullet points from my other thread are now changed, too. Also, LP was down for an hour or more earlier today.
- Thatch > Henderson
- Holloway > Miller
- Magny > Kunimoto
- Kelly > Walsh (Most people are shitting on Kelly because he's 37, and are overrating Walsh for some reason. Kelly is the underdog, but I think he's the right play here because he's a Judo/wrestler, he's a finisher, and he has more experience in MMA and competing in high level Judo events.)
- Prazeres > Lee (Lee is the favorite, he's much younger, and has a 10 inch reach advantage. Both guys have shown holes in their game, but I think Prazeres has higher fight IQ, and I also see this match being close. Prazeres is the bet imo.)
- Borg > Kelades
- Lentz > Makashvili (Makashvili has 1 round to get a TKO, then he'll get overwhelmed and owned via high elevation and smothering.)
- Escudero vs. Lima (dunno. Escudero sucks, and I don't remember shit about this random BJJ fighter from Brazil.)
- Skelly vs. Alers (Very even match. At +160, Alers is the clear play. Both fight with the same game plan, but Alers is stronger than Skelly.)
- Elliott > Makovsky
- Moontasri > Pfister
On February 09 2015 02:17 alejandicto wrote:
Shitty event. I will only bet on Henderson by decision (+280), great odds imo.
This actually looks like an entertaining event on paper. There's plenty of good match-ups.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 09/02/2015 04:32
1
soberstone United States. Feb 09 2015 22:49. Posts 2662
I actually love this event, especially for betting (although I'm pissed the Borg line has moved so much since it opened)
Thatch > Henderson - Betting Thatch, I think Benson made a horrible decision taking this fight, if better stay away from the clinch for a solid round or two and try and frusterate Thatch before shooting or hes gonna get finished
Holloway > Miller - Don't see a reasonable path to victory for Cole, Holloway would have to slip on the banana peal and even than he'd probably slip a sub or two, on the feet hes a few levels above Cole
Magny > Kunimoto - UFC throwing Magny a gimme for being so active
Kelly v Walsch - Dunno but I like what Rican says based on the Kelly fight I did see, he's a strong mo-fo
Lee > Prazeres - Need to watch more Prazares but I was really impressed with Lee vs Iaquinta, he almost won that fight, and hasn't lost since
Borg > Kalades - Kalades has a lot of heart and I like him and think he can survive to a decision but I don't think he has shit for Borg
Lentz > Makashvili - Via normal Lentzing
Escudero vs Lima - Dunno shit about Lima, agree Escudero is bad and has horrible fight IQ - he has some power though
Skelly > Alers - Disagree with Rican, think Skelly is stronger than Alers and is a great bet here, I think he rolls him up
Makovsky > Elliot - Like both guys, more-so Elliot, super exciting and goes for it, but I'm going off the fact that I know Makovsky is all in in a high level training environment and Formiga was just a tough fight matchup wise for Zack
Moontasri v Pfister - Dunno
Bets I Like:
Thatch, Holloway, Skelly Parlay at +270
3
PuertoRican United States. Feb 11 2015 03:29. Posts 13044
Nice little story.
Rekrul is a newb
1
soberstone United States. Feb 11 2015 06:33. Posts 2662
People I respects analysis are making me re-think my bets, blows, I like to go with my gut, but I might end up sitting this one out on bookmaker.... but probably not cuz I'll be bored and go degen. Anyway, less confident in the parlay I listed than I was, although I really will stick with the fact that Holloway shouldn't lose that fight but 1/10 times and I'm gonna feel like an idiot for writing this if Thatch just goes in and destroys Benson like I kinda think he will.
3
PuertoRican United States. Feb 13 2015 00:55. Posts 13044
Have total $585 on Aldo now after betting him at -195 (wtf) for $195.
You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo
Last edit: 13/02/2015 23:53
1
soberstone United States. Feb 13 2015 23:47. Posts 2662
So funny, I was listening to Dolce brag on the JRE podcast about how easy the cut was for Lentz based on their bro-science - guess not.
1
soberstone United States. Feb 13 2015 23:47. Posts 2662
On February 13 2015 22:46 Nazgul wrote:
Conor is like -130 vs Aldo lol.
Pisses me off so much, I really hope McGregor ends up as atleast some sort of dog, because he's going to smash Aldo.
Edit: I know people are going to laugh at this and think I'm falling for the hype train... but the bottom line is Aldo won't be able to land leg kicks very easily as McGregor is always moving forward, Aldo gets hit WAY too much and Mcgregor has Welterweight power in his shots, and his cardio, while untested from a 5-round perspective, looks amazing. He's barely breathing after he smashes these cats. The hype train of clowns and super-fans almost blinds people from seeing that it's actually legitimate hype. These aren't stupid Irish clowns shifting the lines 40 points in 1 hour on specific sites, these are sharks.
Last edit: 13/02/2015 23:51
3
PuertoRican United States. Feb 13 2015 23:51. Posts 13044
On February 13 2015 22:46 Nazgul wrote:
Conor is like -130 vs Aldo lol.
Aldo is -130 vs. Conor -110 on 5dimes.
The best price you can currently get for Aldo is -124 on SportsBet. The best price you can currently get on Conor is +135 on BetOnline.
On February 13 2015 22:46 Nazgul wrote:
Conor is like -130 vs Aldo lol.
Pisses me off so much, I really hope McGregor ends up as atleast some sort of dog, because he's going to smash Aldo.
Edit: I know people are going to laugh at this and think I'm falling for the hype train... but the bottom line is Aldo won't be able to land leg kicks very easily as McGregor is always moving forward, Aldo gets hit WAY too much and Mcgregor has Welterweight power in his shots, and his cardio, while untested from a 5-round perspective, looks amazing. He's barely breathing after he smashes these cats. The hype train of clowns and super-fans almost blinds people from seeing that it's actually legitimate hype. These aren't stupid Irish clowns shifting the lines 40 points in 1 hour on specific sites, these are sharks.
I think Conor is a legitimate fighter he is incredible.
However: Aldo is 28 years old in the prime of his life and in conversation for being one of the greatest of all time. He's motivated for this fight and coming off of what is arguably the best performance of his life. He hasn't lost in 15 UFC/WEC fights and won 10 title fights in a row. Edgar who I consider one of the P4P best fighters out there couldn't touch him the first two rounds which blew my mind. I don't know I just don't see how beating Denis Siver and Dustin Poirier can ever put you at even odds with this monster.
You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo
Last edit: 13/02/2015 23:59
3
PuertoRican United States. Feb 14 2015 00:38. Posts 13044
Bellator 133 starts in a couple hours. I didn't make a thread for it cuz I've been busy.
Alexander Shlemenko vs. Melvin Manhoef
Pat Curran vs. Daniel Weichel
Julia Budd vs. Gabrielle Halloway
Chris Honeycutt vs. Clayton MacFarlane
Preliminary Card (Spike.com 5pm PST/8 pm ET)
Art Arciniega vs. Emilio Chavez
Blake Watkins vs. George Zuniga
Paul Ruiz vs. Nicolas Sperling
Marko Damiani vs. Mason Fowler
Preliminary Card on Spike.com (Following Manhoef vs. Shlemenko)
Nick Bustamante vs. Luis Jauregui
John Paul Elias vs. Cody Sons
Ryan Tobar vs. Jonathan Contrestano
Adam Piccolotti vs. Ray Cervera
----------
My bets for the Bellator card:
Budd/Holloway u2.5 +105 $5
Pat Curran -185 $20
I was thinking about betting Manhoef at +200, but his line dropped a lot during the past few hours.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 14/02/2015 00:41
1
flounder44 United States. Feb 14 2015 00:51. Posts 916
conor will rape aldo, he is an anderson silva in the making. Then he will rape all the wrestlers people assume ufc has protected him, which is probably true but wont change the fact that he'll own em as well. There is only one...
3
PuertoRican United States. Feb 14 2015 02:40. Posts 13044
soberstone United States. Feb 14 2015 02:44. Posts 2662
So Brandon Thatch looked a good 2 weight classes larger than Henderson, odds shifting... I never put money down at the right time.
3
PuertoRican United States. Feb 14 2015 03:05. Posts 13044
On February 14 2015 01:44 soberstone wrote:
So Brandon Thatch looked a good 2 weight classes larger than Henderson, odds shifting... I never put money down at the right time.
I was watching his line to see if it was going to get better than -110, but then it got to -115 and I put $50 down on Thatch before the weigh-in. The size factor was already known before the weigh-in, so I'm not sure what people were expecting. The only thing I can think of is maybe some bettors were hoping Thatch would look bad on the scale, dunno.
Henderson weighed in at 169, and he'll probably weigh 175 or less in the cage. Thatch weighed in at 170, and he'll be 190+ in the cage.
soberstone United States. Feb 14 2015 03:19. Posts 2662
On February 14 2015 02:05 PuertoRican wrote:
[QUOTE]On February 14 2015 01:44 soberstone wrote:
So Brandon Thatch looked a good 2 weight classes larger than Henderson, odds shifting... I never put money down at the right time.
I was watching his line to see if it was going to get better than -110, but then it got to -115 and I put $50 down on Thatch before the weigh-in. The size factor was already known before the weigh-in, so I'm not sure what people were expecting. The only thing I can think of is maybe some bettors were hoping Thatch would look bad on the scale, dunno.
Henderson weighed in at 169, and he'll probably weigh 175 or less in the cage. Thatch weighed in at 170, and he'll be 190+ in the cage.
----------
Yah I agree I shouldve known on this one that this was gonna happen. Really changes nothing. If anything, it plays to the only strategy Benson has which is to drag it out in a rangy careful fight and take-over in the championship rounds.
1
jvilla777 Australia. Feb 14 2015 04:06. Posts 1348
Thatch looks like an absolute monster compared to bendo, I don't see how bendo can win. Thatch will probably fight once more this after after beating Ben and will be in talks for title contention.
He looks like a destroyer, he will be champion next year IMO, which is awesome because he's not a hug'n'pray fighter.
Note:IMO
longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality!
Netherlands. Feb 13 2015 23:46. Posts 7080
