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Dealing with straights?

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Blitzkrieg0   United States. Feb 02 2015 19:39. Posts 50

I keep losing to straights when I have sets or two pair. How do you recognize when to fold thinking the villain made a straight? Do you just roll with the losses since it's +EV in the long run?

For instance, first hand today I get dealt two aces and flop the set. I end up losing the hand to a straight that the villain made on the turn with 35o as the big blind (He check raises all in, but I have him covered). Do I need to bet more aggressive on the flop even though the villain is going to fold most of the time? Currently playing 5 cent blind zoom NLHE if that matters.

Do you actually make money staying in on the board when you have absolutely nothing except a gut shot straight draw? I don't understand why people even play these hands.

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 Last edit: 02/02/2015 19:50

mnj   United States. Feb 03 2015 00:07. Posts 3848

this is gonna sound harsh and assholish, but you don't know what the fuck you are asking :D

and because you don't know what you're asking no one will know how to answer


traxamillion   United States. Feb 03 2015 02:52. Posts 10468

look into the concept of implied odds and it may change some of your incorrect thinking regarding strategy.

lets look at an example

you have aces and raise preflop and get called by one villain in the big blind.

say you each have 200 bucks and the blinds are 1-2. You raise to 4 pre and villain calls bb.

so pot on the flop will be 9 dollars. Lets say the flop comes down A59 no flushdraw. Great flop for you right? you have the nuts and no way you are ever folding so you bet the pot; 9 dollars into a 9 dollar pot. Villain calls.

Turn is an 8 and you bet pot again. 27 into a 27 dollar pot. Villain now goes all in for 160 more and you call with top set of course. Unfortunately for you villain flips up 67 offsuit and now you have lost a huge pot to junk.

So how did villain call a potsize bet on an ace high flop with nothing but a gutshot? Only one card can come that gives him the winning hand, so isn't the flop call awful since he is just going to lose those 9 chips most of the time? Actually not at all the call with the gutshot is good and standard because of implied odds.

direct odds say that in order to call a 9 dollar bet into a 9 dollar pot you must win that pot at least 33% of the time to be profitable; and now way does that gutshot hit the turn 33%. It hits closer to 8.5%

When villain hits his gutshot however he is likely to make more than just the 9 dollars in the pot because his hand will have improved to the nuts and he will now be able to get further value out of Hero on future streets depending on the strength of hero's range and hero's willingness to call down with that range. If hero has a wide range composed largely of bluffs then villain's implied odds go down because when villain improves and bets/raises hero will have on average a weaker range and fold rather than pay off.

When you play a spot too heavily for value or have a strong range then your opponents implied odds go up because you are more likely to call down when beat.

In the aces vs 67 hand because you are so strong villain has great implied odds and in fact a profitable call on the flop even though you potted it. He has to call 9 to win not only the 9 in the pot, but basically your whole stack. So even though he only hits his gutshot on the turn 8% of the time, it is more than enough. He only actually needs to improve 4-5% of the time to show profit on the call (indicating if he always stacks you he could have actually even called a 2x pot overbet on the flop and still made money off you in the example). The way to combat this, and the reason his implied odds aren't quite as good in reality but still +ev, is to make sure to bet with some bluffs too. If you mix in bluffs and weaker hands to the range of just AA in the example then when the 67 hits a gutshot it wont always be stacking you. It might stack AA sometimes but most of the time it will end up just winning a small pot versus a bluff that just gives up on the turn etc.


traxamillion   United States. Feb 03 2015 03:03. Posts 10468

and as far as dealing with straights. When a straight becomes a possibility on the board evaluate whether any of your opponents possible hand range connects with that board to make a straight. If it does then consider it against the rest of his range and play accordingly.


Blitzkrieg0   United States. Feb 03 2015 14:29. Posts 50

I had no idea about implied odds, but I think he'd still be losing money given my stack compared to his. Mirroring your example he would have had about 70 dollars to my 200. His situation is still a lot more favorable than I imagined though; I will be more careful about that in the future.


  On February 03 2015 02:03 traxamillion wrote:
and as far as dealing with straights. When a straight becomes a possibility on the board evaluate whether any of your opponents possible hand range connects with that board to make a straight. If it does then consider it against the rest of his range and play accordingly.



I am working on figuring out peoples ranges already, but I am awful at it. I was expecting him to have AX or a pocket pair possibly making a set. I have a serious problem with overvaluing the hands people have.


Thanks for the explanation of implied odds.

 Last edit: 03/02/2015 14:30

KeyleK_uk   United Kingdom. Feb 03 2015 17:20. Posts 1687

You also have to look at the board.. KJT is alot more scary for two pair than say Q56 or even 653 etc.
Please start posting some hands in the hand section and people with give you their advice. Hands like You flop a set, they turn a gutshot and you lose really are, in general hands where you can do nothing about, especially at nl5 zoom so perhaps different types of hands.

bold name by the way, are you one of the 1/3rd or w/e of Americans who claims to have German ancestory?

poker is soooo much easier when you flop sets 

Blitzkrieg0   United States. Feb 03 2015 18:16. Posts 50


  On February 03 2015 16:20 KeyleK_uk wrote:
You also have to look at the board.. KJT is alot more scary for two pair than say Q56 or even 653 etc.
Please start posting some hands in the hand section and people with give you their advice. Hands like You flop a set, they turn a gutshot and you lose really are, in general hands where you can do nothing about, especially at nl5 zoom so perhaps different types of hands.

bold name by the way, are you one of the 1/3rd or w/e of Americans who claims to have German ancestory?



If you tell me how to copy/paste history from Bovada I can post some hands. I posted one, but I feel stupid that I took a screenshot and explained what happened. I attempted to copy in the hand history player for about 15 minutes and no dice. I googled it and will try to post some of the hands. I probably won't be playing again until this weekend so I can either dig up some old hands or wait until then to post new ones.

Random name generator on the name.

 Last edit: 03/02/2015 23:48

traxamillion   United States. Feb 04 2015 12:23. Posts 10468

woah thats cool how did you strike out those sentences


Blitzkrieg0   United States. Feb 04 2015 17:29. Posts 50


  On February 04 2015 11:23 traxamillion wrote:
woah thats cool how did you strike out those sentences



If you're familiar with the bold BBC then it is the same thing just change the b's to s's. If you aren't familiar with BBC then I'm not sure how to explain it.


Blitzkrieg0   United States. Feb 08 2015 18:43. Posts 50

The hand history that Bovada provides doesn't actually parse in the hand thing so no luck there. If somebody can PM me the format of what PokerStars hand history looks like I might be able to duplicate it to paste hands.

Bovada Hand #3001497201 Zone Poker ID#372 HOLDEMZonePoker No Limit - 2015-02-06 20:50:46
*** HOLE CARDS ***
UTG+1 [ME] : Card dealt to a spot Ad 3s
UTG+2 : Card dealt to a spot Kh 4h
Dealer : Card dealt to a spot Kd Td
Small Blind : Card dealt to a spot Qs Qh
Big Blind : Card dealt to a spot 6s 4d
UTG : Card dealt to a spot Js Th
UTG : Calls $0.05
UTG+2 : Leave(Auto)
UTG+1 [ME] : Raises $0.10 to $0.10
UTG+2 : Folds
Big Blind : Leave(Auto)
Dealer : Calls $0.10
Small Blind : Raises $0.28 to $0.30
Big Blind : Folds
UTG : Calls $0.25
UTG+1 [ME] : Calls $0.20
Dealer : Calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** Jc 7h As
Small Blind : Checks
UTG : All-in $1.84
UTG+1 [ME] : Folds
UTG+1 [ME] : Leave(Auto)
Dealer : Folds
Dealer : Leave(Auto)
Small Blind : Folds
Small Blind : Leave(Auto)
UTG : Return uncalled portion of bet $1.84
UTG : Does not show [Js Th] (One pair)
UTG : Hand result $1.19
UTG : Leave(Auto)


I put him on AX, pocket pair, maybe KQ here since he three bet me. Since my kicker is pathetic I decided to fold as I figure he has AK or AJ going all in on this. In hindsight he is just a fish and I could have called (people with less than $2 often make these crazy all ins on not top pairs), but is my reasoning here good?

 Last edit: 08/02/2015 18:53

traxamillion   United States. Feb 09 2015 21:34. Posts 10468

fold pre


Blitzkrieg0   United States. Feb 10 2015 01:42. Posts 50


  On February 09 2015 20:34 traxamillion wrote:
fold pre



So the logic is if I flop top pair and still not going to call I should have just folded in the first place? In hindsight it makes so much sense, but I do a lot of dumb things while I'm playing.


SwatRaven   United States. Feb 10 2015 05:13. Posts 6


  On February 10 2015 00:42 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:
Show nested quote +



So the logic is if I flop top pair and still not going to call I should have just folded in the first place? In hindsight it makes so much sense, but I do a lot of dumb things while I'm playing.

It isn't so much whether you should call a shove but would you feel comfortable two other people in the pot with a3? When you get 3b and 2nd person calling here you are likely to be behind and there is no real way to be profitable.
Even more playing a3 oop is not going to be profitable unless you exploit some weakness in the other players. Your hand is almost never going to be profitable in utg+1.

 Last edit: 10/02/2015 05:16

Blitzkrieg0   United States. Feb 16 2015 22:44. Posts 50

Looking for some advice on sizing: 6 max zoom 25NL.

UTG+1 - limps .25
Button - raises to 1
SB (ME) - raises to 3 AhAd
BB - calls
UTG+1 calls
Button calls

Flop: 8c9hKd

So the pot is already crazy and I've got the over pair so I throw all in. ~40
BB calls (he has me covered)

Thoughts? Should I have tried to check/raise or make a smaller bet to get some of the other guys in on the hand? BB might have thrown all in after me regardless I suppose.

 Last edit: 17/02/2015 00:35

traxamillion   United States. Feb 18 2015 10:46. Posts 10468

i wouldn't shove and scare anyone out; that would be a big overbet if anyone covers (Kx still prolly called your jam obv). Don't be scared to get it in though, definitely felt this


traxamillion   United States. Feb 18 2015 10:51. Posts 10468

didn't see 4 callers pre; openshoving is +ev and not even that bad although would be better with a flush out. not optimal though thats for sure


Blitzkrieg0   United States. Feb 18 2015 16:33. Posts 50


  On February 18 2015 09:46 traxamillion wrote:
i wouldn't shove and scare anyone out; that would be a big overbet if anyone covers (Kx still prolly called your jam obv). Don't be scared to get it in though, definitely felt this



Villain called with TdJd

Looking back the other guys had 3h5h and 5c6d. Is it common for three betting ranges to be that wide?

I'm glad I didn't try to slow play it because I would have folded on the turn Kh river 2h

 Last edit: 18/02/2015 16:48

traxamillion   United States. Feb 19 2015 02:30. Posts 10468

Those are loose calls. It is good you didn't slowplay, you want to bet your hand here I the flop for value. I would just bet an amount that would allow me to comfortably put the big stack ai on the turn, not necessarily shove.


 



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