UFC FN 59: McGregor vs. Siver

Date: Sunday, January 18th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 17:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Conor McGregor (16-2) vs. Dennis Siver (22-9) (Featherweight)
Donald Cerrone (25-6) vs. Benson Henderson (21-4) (Lightweight)
Uriah Hall (9-4) vs. Louis Taylor (11-3) (Middleweight)
Norman Parke (20-2-1) vs. Gleison Tibau (32-10) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Cathal Pendred (15-2-1) vs. Sean Spencer (12-3) (Welterweight)
John Howard (22-10) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-4) (Welterweight)
Zhang Lipeng (9-7-1) vs. Chris Wade (8-1) (Lightweight)
Patrick Holohan (10-1-1) vs. Shane Howell (13-8) (Flyweight)
Johnny Case (19-4) vs. Frankie Perez (9-1) (Lightweight)
Charles Rosa (9-1) vs. Sean Soriano (8-2) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Matt Van Buren (6-3) vs. Sean O'Connell (15-6) (Light Heavyweight)
Tateki Matsuda (10-6) vs. Joby Sanchez (6-1) (Flyweight)

Other

- Norman Parke was expected to face Jorge Masvidal at the event. However in early December, Masvidal pulled out of the bout citing an injury and was replaced by Gleison Tibau.
- Paul Felder was expected to face Johnny Case at the event. However, Felder elected to fight as a replacement against Danny Castillo at UFC 182. He was replaced by Frank Trevino. On December 23, it was announced that Trevino had to pull out of the bout due to an injury and was replaced by newcomer Frankie Perez.
- Costas Philippou was expected to face Uriah Hall at the event. However, Philippou was forced out of the bout due to injury. He was replaced by Strikeforce veteran Louis Taylor.
- Eddie Alvarez was expected to face former UFC Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson at the co-main event. However, Alvarez was forced out of the bout due to illness. He was replaced by Donald Cerrone, whom Henderson fought twice before (at WEC 43 and WEC 48) and won both fights. One fight was for the WEC Lightweight Championship an the other one was for the interim belt. Cerrone had previously fought just 15 days before this event at UFC 182, winning his fight against Myles Jury.

First impression of the match-ups:

• McGregor > Siver (Fight goes o1.5 rounds at +145 or better.)
• Henderson > Cerrone (Bad match-up for Cerrone.)
• Hall > Taylor (Short notice for Taylor, and he isn't a good fighter.)
• Parke > Tibau (Parke is younger, better cardio, taller, good TDD, faster, and has good movement. I think Parke will get a UD win or a late TKO.)
• Spencer > Pendred
• Howard > Larkin (Howard is the hometown boy and his style is bad for Larkin. If Larkin can't keep the distance, he'll get pressed against the fence where he'll get out-worked and then taken down.)
• Wade > Lipeng
• Holohan > Howell
• Case vs. Perez (dunno yet)
• Soriano > Rosa
• O'Connell > Buren
• Sanchez > Matsuda

no bets fuck

was thinking benson when he was around -110/120 but failed to pull the trigger. maybe I'll bet like $10 on siver lol

I hope they are paying Cowboy a lot for preventing this card of being a total joke

On January 10 2015 23:46 Nazgul wrote: no bets fuck was thinking benson when he was around -110/120 but failed to pull the trigger. maybe I'll bet like $10 on siver lol.

You might as well bet Dennis Siver by KO/TKO +1500 on 5dimes. He won't win a decision.

Also, "fight starts round 2" is -110 on 5dimes, but keeps going up and down. I'm on o1.5 rounds +145 on Bookmaker.

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Additionally:

Friday: Bellator 132: Patricio Pitbull vs. Daniel Straus
Saturday: WSOF 17 - Jake Shields vs. Brian Foster
Saturday: Deontay Wilder vs. Bermane Stiverne (boxing)
Sunday: UFC

isn't that fight really likely to start round two? I'm not at all convinced Connor is such a power puncher that he will just finish him instantly

edit: thanks I bet $110

On January 11 2015 01:56 Nazgul wrote: isn't that fight really likely to start round two? I'm not at all convinced Connor is such a power puncher that he will just finish him instantly edit: thanks I bet $110

I think it'll start round 2, but the public is riding Conor's dick, especially after he said he'll finish Siver within the first 2 minutes. I think Siver will relax a bit and not be reckless in the first round and go all out, especially since it's a 5-round fight.

Do you like Gustafsson vs Johnson at -210?

On January 11 2015 03:34 Nazgul wrote: Do you like Gustafsson vs Johnson at -210?

I haven't thought about the match much, other than Gustafsson via KO/TKO. I liked how Gustafsson looked against Manuwa.

LOL awful tattoo

Gus should beat up Johnson, Johnson seems to have had ever personal problem know to man leading up to this and is fighting in cold ass Sweden at a really weird time (card starts in the middle of the night) against someone that's in theory a horrible match up for him. Although, if a 100% Johnson shows up I wouldn't be happy with Gus -210. That guy looked scary against Nog.

Not having money on any site since I'm fairly sure I got limited on Unibet (although they say they never limit accounts) after a nice little rush at livebetting dota 2 lol. Seems like a card that could have some value if you did your research in general but I have no strong leans for this one.

The event in Sweden will for sure have some cool stuff though, first real good card we're getting.

Hello all

I have estimated, for each fighter in this event, the approximate % to win, and the approximate score he will do on average if he does win (second column has no % because its just reversed)


I feel this kind of information can be quite helpfull to bet on Fantasy picks sites like DraftKing. Anyone see something clearly off?

Based on this sheet, i would say some of the best picks on DraftKings are Rosa, Perez, Hall, Pendred

Cerrone vs Henderson would be a much better main event tbh
Don't think McGregor can win within 1 round plus Siver has a a pretty good chin as far as i remember

"On January 11, it was announced that Taylor pulled out of the fight due to a pulled muscle in his back and had his contract terminated as result."

This means there's probably one less fight on the card. Also, we'll have one less fight to choose from on DraftKings.

Great... The only thing i was looking forward to on this card was Uriah Hall fighting :/

McGregror > Siver - First round KO.... his power for the division is insane and Siver is way too short and stubby to avoid the shots IMO. Perfect matchup to keep the first round KO's coming.... + Siver got caught for juicing before and than didn't look great in a fight vs Rosa who fought on 2 weeks notice... maybe it's the second or third but anything but a dominant KO win is a loss for the hype train (which I'm all aboard) at this point

Cerrone > Henderson - I think his TDD has gotten good enough to fend off the obvious shots. I re-watched their old fights and both have improved immensely but I prefer the active and confident Cerrone.

Hall vs ? - Taylor just got hurt. Will be lame replacement regardless if they get anyone.

Tibeu > Parke - I'm not sold on Parke to be able to fend off a huge wily vet like Tib's... I think it'll be a close decision either way.

Spencer > Pendred - Both bad, Pendred worse.

Larkin > Howard - Really love this new weightclass for Larkin, I think he could be a darkhorse in this division. Says he feels like he's on juice at 170. Remember he beat Lawler at 85 and Lawler is a whole new man since dropping. Not saying I expect thart kind of leap from Larkin but I think he's gonna look good.

Wade vs Lipang - Dunno

Holohan vs Howell - Dunno

Case > Perez

Rosa > Soriano - I like both these guys, poor Soriano has kinda had a murderers row.

O'Connell > Buren - Just going off of how bad Matt Van Buren is. Truly a terrible fighter.

Sanchez > Mitsuda - Sanchez looked pretty damn good vs Wilson Reis who has turned out to be tough as shit.

Johnson is fat in between fights and im disappointed with his lack of discipline tbh. I think either its a terrible johnson or him KOing Gus and surprising everyone. The dude's career has been weird

I don't think Siver can win anymore. I dont know if he can last one round.

On January 11 2015 13:03 Floofy wrote: Hello all I have estimated, for each fighter in this event, the approximate % to win, and the approximate score he will do on average if he does win (second column has no % because its just reversed) I feel this kind of information can be quite helpfull to bet on Fantasy picks sites like DraftKing. Anyone see something clearly off? Based on this sheet, i would say some of the best picks on DraftKings are Rosa, Perez, Hall, Pendred

What did you use for this?

On January 11 2015 19:21 TianYuan wrote: Show nested quote + On January 11 2015 13:03 Floofy wrote: Hello all I have estimated, for each fighter in this event, the approximate % to win, and the approximate score he will do on average if he does win (second column has no % because its just reversed) I feel this kind of information can be quite helpfull to bet on Fantasy picks sites like DraftKing. Anyone see something clearly off? Based on this sheet, i would say some of the best picks on DraftKings are Rosa, Perez, Hall, Pendred What did you use for this?

To estimate the % to win? I just looked at bestfightodds.com and converted american odds
And for the "average score", i just estimated that myself, based on how often the guy finish his fights, and how often his opponement gets finished.

I realize this is far from being a bulletproof method, hence why im asking if some numbers seems like they are really off

siver looks like he's dying to be KOed lol