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shoving vs. calling with huge draw otf

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punix   Germany. Dec 09 2014 11:24. Posts 406

Hey LPers,

This hand got me into some thinking (http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/1046862).
So, OTF hero has a huge draw with flush + inside straight draw, his cbet gets reraised by villain and he decided to shove.
When I first saw this (as can be seen in the comments) I thought like "hmm why not call and reraise and go offensive when we hit our draw" but at after a moment I thought "hm ya but if we call and not hit, villain will bet again for sure and what then?? maybe its really better to get it all-in here because our odds with 2 cards to come are much higher". I couldn't find a satisfying solution for myself just out of the gut and for the first time I felt the need to really crunch the numbers on it (which is a little bit strange since Iam a scientist and am quite used to analyze data and numbers).

Lets make it a little bit more simplified for our calculation:

Scenario
Hero and villain are both 100bb deep
Hero bets 3bb pre and gets called by one villain (who was in the SB), rest folds. Pot is now 7bb (1 bb from the BB that folded).
We flop the inside straight flush draw and cbet 6bb, villain reraises to 20bb (pot is now at 33bb).
Lets assume we have to hit either our straight or flush to win the hand and if we dont hit we loose.
We have to call 14bb into a pot of 33bb (so we need to have more than 29,2% equity to win money) but we are only drawing on 25,5% with just one card to come (coz if we dont hit on the turn villain will bet for sure and we have to do EV calcs and thinking again and situation gets even more complex so lets just decide on the flop!)

EV(calling)=33bb*25,5%-14bb*(1-25,5%)=-2,02bb

If we fold our EV would be 0 obviously.

But if we reraise all-in we can expect him to fold atleast some times and ofc it now strongly depends on what we think how often he will fold.
Additionally we will have two cards to come and we have therefore a 44,9% chance to hit one of our winning draws.

EV(shove)=0,5*33bb+0,5(0,449*110bb-(1-0,449)*91bb) (we win 110 bb 44,9% and lose 1-44,9% our 91bb that we raised to) = +16,1 bb

If we expect him to fold only 20% of the time we have to tweak the number a little bit.

EV=0,2*33bb+0,8*(0,449*101bb-(1-0,449)*91bb)=+6,1bb

We are hitting 0 EV when he is folding around 2% of the time and if he is never folding than our EV is -0,6bb

Basically shoving here is way superior to calling as long as he is folding more than ~2%!

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 Last edit: 11/12/2014 15:03

punix   Germany. Dec 10 2014 18:32. Posts 406

hm no one? then i just assume my calculations are kinda correct.


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Dec 12 2014 07:26. Posts 5070

I haven't really looked through the calucations, but "Basically shoving here is way superior to calling as long as he is folding more than ~2%!" is false. Shoving is superior to a 0EV decision (folding), you haven't modelled the EV of calling. It's very intuitive that you'd need very little fold equity to get it in when there's dead money and you have 45% equity anyway. You can jam infinite money in if you have 50% equity against a calling range and show profit relative to folding if there's dead money in the pot even if your fold equity is 0%

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Dec 12 2014 07:28. Posts 5070

Also, looking at the hand you linked I think it's pretty unrealistic to expect 45% equity against a calling range as you're going to run in to a lot 2 pair, sets and straights that have you in much worse shape so your calculations aren't going to be applicable to this exact spot

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

punix   Germany. Dec 12 2014 09:05. Posts 406

but the 45% equity comes from the draw calculation from flop to river for hitting on of our 12 outs (if we assume every heart and street out gives us the best hand).
it is basically not the ev on the flop because that is for sure lower but its an kinda estimated equity by the river (that flop + 2 random cards -> coz we got 12 outs and 2 cards to come out from 47).

and i have calculated the EV of calling but just for that one street and havent calculated further EV's for all the possible turn outcomes and decisions but its quite obvious that our equity on the flop is definitely not 45% but far lower because with just 1 card to come we dont improve as often but with 2 cards to come our equity goes up quite alot because of that many outs.
And the EV of calling is even less than folding so imo shove > fold > call

Its not 100% applicable to the hand because villain there has redraw to a better street than we have, but thats why i made an example up where villain has no street or flush draws so for example villain hit 2p he is only drawing to a FH then but the without a paired board we are gonna win every flush and street that comes until the river.

 Last edit: 12/12/2014 09:06

punix   Germany. Dec 12 2014 09:15. Posts 406

if i calculate the EV with equilab for the linked hand and give villain only suited low connector cards and some non suited low connector cards (which can hit that flop) and the very strong hands like AKs AA KK AQs (which could like this flop) we still have >60% equity here
so imo my calculation is even a kinda worse case scenario
and if we give him the exact hand he has (88) we still have >45% equity and this is also one of the best scenarios for villain because he block our straight and is drawing to a straight himself.

 Last edit: 12/12/2014 09:17

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Dec 12 2014 09:16. Posts 5070

I understand where you're getting 45% from, but if he has a set which he will very often have when all the money goes in we only have 38.03% equity (Equilab), because on some river cards our flush and straight cards (besides the 8h) are dead when he boats/quads up on the turn, and he has redraws on the river if we hit on the turn.

I agree it's impossible to calculate the EV of calling given all the possible iterations of turn and river cards/actions, but I'm not sure why you're assuming that folding is better than calling. When we hit we don't just win the money that's gone in up to that point, there are still stacks behind and we can get gain extra value from his sets and 2 pairs when we hit and assuming we're never being bluffed we can get away from our hand when he offers us poor odds and we miss. Yes we hit more often when we see 2 cards rather than 1, but we're putting in over 100bb to see 2 cards, whereas we can see 1 card for an extra 13bb. If we have next to no fold equity on the flop I'd suggest calling is far better than raising as we can realise our equity for a lot cheaper and don't put our money in behind his range

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Dec 12 2014 09:18. Posts 5070

It's pointless to calculate what your equity is against his overall preflop range, it's your equity vs the hands that are raising your bet and calling your all in with and the fold equity you have that effect the EV of your shove

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Dec 12 2014 09:19. Posts 5070

88 is definitely not one of the best scenarios for him and you will seldom see most players playing 88 for stacks there 3 way -_-

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

punix   Germany. Dec 12 2014 09:19. Posts 406

hm yea thats why initially i commented in the hand "i dont know if i like the shove".
but what if we dont hit turn and he will still bet strongly (which is a pretty good assumption) ? we fold ? we will call again probably eventhough our odds then for calling are not that great anymore (because just one card to come)


punix   Germany. Dec 12 2014 09:21. Posts 406


  On December 12 2014 08:18 ToT)MidiaN( wrote:
It's pointless to calculate what your equity is against his overall preflop range, it's your equity vs the hands that are raising your bet and calling your all in with and the fold equity you have that effect the EV of your shove



yes thats why i neglected most of his preflop range and tightened it to pretty much only very high broadway suited cards (obviously heart colours only) and smallish connected cards and sets and some overpairs


punix   Germany. Dec 12 2014 09:24. Posts 406

calling can be +EV if we expect a decent amount of implied odds but its hard to predict the implied odds in a scenario like this since we can still hit our flush and be beaten by a better flush (same with streets) and if we give villain 2p type of hands he might also likely shut down most of the action if another low heart will hit.
dno :/


ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Dec 12 2014 09:27. Posts 5070

In an absolute best case scenario, where he's flatting KK+ preflop, and he's raise/getting it in with 98s, 87s, 88, and some random nut flush draws you have about 50% equity, in a worst case scenario, and a more likely scenario at low/mid stakes you're never going to be shown AA, 98s or 88 when all the money goes in and you're going to be running in to a set, T8s or things like AhTh, Ah8h all day long in which case you'd have 37.02%. Given this guy is apparently happy to felt 88 here it's very very clearly a case of Shove > Fold, was definitely never saying shove is bad, just saying you're way underrating call if you think folding is better than calling

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

punix   Germany. Dec 12 2014 09:35. Posts 406

yep okay!
thanks alot for your input midian
and indeed if we assume an equity of aroundish 37% it would make calling slightly +EV (even w/o implied odds) and the EV of shoving less good compared to the starting calculations.
So that the decision between shoving and calling becomes more close and calling definitely is more preferable over folding.

I think the calculations are still correct but its indeed much better to include the "real" equity assumption into them instead of just pure drawing odds.
But for a newb like me its hard to realize and assign the equity as correct as possible.

 Last edit: 12/12/2014 09:37

ToT)MidiaN(    United Kingdom. Dec 12 2014 09:46. Posts 5070

One thing I would also say is that this is definitely a preflop fold UTG in a 6max game. And if I did play it I'd likely check call the flop, mainly to avoid being raised, but also because I don't think you're getting too much value by betting and protection isn't as much of a concern when their random overcard outs are tainted by your flush draws

One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope 

punix   Germany. Dec 12 2014 10:05. Posts 406

ye that is absolutely true but not concerned in my scenario where it could be for example BTN vs BB.
But agree that the play of the hand is not optimal but I was more concerned now about the exact calcs.


EvilSky    Czech Republic. Dec 12 2014 16:07. Posts 8915

We have around 40ish % equity vs a worst case scenario tight range (that doesnt include 88 ofc) and I think the main thing with this hand is we are happy with getting it in now vs a higher FD or folding it out (if thats an option), both are way better options than calling and trying to hit which will result a lot in getting it in dead or not getting paid when we hit an obvious draw.


DragOn_   Canada. Dec 13 2014 01:32. Posts 214


  On December 12 2014 08:19 punix wrote:
but what if we dont hit turn and he will still bet strongly (which is a pretty good assumption) ? we fold ? we will call again probably eventhough our odds then for calling are not that great anymore (because just one card to come)



id like to know the answer to this as well


fira   United States. Dec 13 2014 17:37. Posts 6345


  On December 13 2014 00:32 DragOn_ wrote:
Show nested quote +



id like to know the answer to this as well


imo if we are OOP in this spot it's better to try and be the aggressor. if we have position, calling is a good option cause we will have easier time getting value when we hit, and have easier time floating most turn bets knowing we have position again on river. just a pretty good spot whether or not we hit if we have position.

if we call OOP here then yeah turns are gonna be hard cause he'll prob check back a lot of cards we hit and bet most/all the cards we miss. with these stacks and being OOP i def prefer gii on flop


AndrewSong    United States. Dec 15 2014 04:49. Posts 2355

x/c flop


 
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