PuertoRican United States. Nov 30 2014 03:09. Posts 13044
Date: Saturday, December 6th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)
- Gian Villante was expected to face Corey Anderson at the event. However, Villante pulled out of the fight citing an injury and was replaced by Jonathan Wilson. A few days later, it was announced that Wilson was forced out of the fight and undefeated newcomer Justin Jones would take his place.
- Touted newcomer, Holly Holm was expected to face Raquel Pennington at this event. However, Holm pulled out of the fight in mid-November, citing a neck injury. Holm was replaced by UFC newcomer Ashlee Evans-Smith.
Rekrul is a newb
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PuertoRican United States. Nov 30 2014 03:20. Posts 13044
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First impression of the match-ups:
• Hendricks > Lawler
• Pettis > Melendez
• Schaub > Browne
• Duffee > Hamilton
• Ferguson > Trujillo
• Faber > Rivera
• Gordon > Samman
• Anderson vs. Jones (dunno)
• Pennington > Smith (Smith's claim to fame is her win over the transvestite MMA fighter named Fallon Fox. Smith has some high school and/or college wrestle skills, but she isn't elite by any means. Pennington isn't elite by any means, but she has the experience against tough fighters, experience in fighting on the 'big stage,' is the better striker, and has the better chin. Pennington at +160 is the right bet.
• Pettis > Hobar (Baby Pettis will be the smaller guy, but he always is the smaller guy. Hobar has terrible defense. The only thing you have to worry about is Hobar trying to wrestle-fuck Baby Pettis, but I'd hope he wouldn't fall for that shit.)
• White vs. Collard (dunno)
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Nov 30 2014 14:41. Posts 2662
Hendricks > Lawler - Wouldn't bet on it
Pettis > Melendez - Wouldn't bet on it now but when Pettis was only like -160 I would have
Browne >>>> Schaub - Would love to hear Rican's reasoning, I think Schaub is going to sleep
Duffee > Hamilton - Would bet on Hamilton at current odds, Duffee's cardio and chin are not good and he's coming off a huge layoff
Fergusson >>>> Trujillo - Would bet on this one, Trujillo should have nothing for him and I see no path to victory
Faber > Rivera - Would never bet on this with the odds where they are
Gordon > Samman
Anderson > Jones via wrestle-fuck/grind
Smith > Pennington
Pettis > Hobar - Would love to parlay this with Fergusson
Collard > White - Collard is awesome
PuertoRican United States. Nov 30 2014 18:03. Posts 13044
On November 30 2014 13:41 soberstone wrote:
Browne >>>> Schaub - Would love to hear Rican's reasoning, I think Schaub is going to sleep
If both chins were equal, there wouldn't -- and shouldn't -- be any discussion on who would win, since Schaub is the better overall fighter. Since I don't think Schaub's chin will be an issue, I see +200 or better as a gift.
Rekrul is a newb
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soberstone United States. Nov 30 2014 19:32. Posts 2662
I think Browne is a better striker with much better movement and physical gifts. I see way no Schaub wins the fight whatsoever besides by KO, and the likelihood of that isn't all that high. I'm interested to see this fight now because I genuinely think you are way off on this one and usually when I feel that way I'm either really really right or really really wrong, rarely any middle ground. In other words, its rare that I've seen in these forums where I think a -300 guy is a good value and you think the other guy is great value - in MMA when people are big favs/dogs, it's rare there is value on either, and we're normally not that far apart, so I'm intrigued.
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PuertoRican United States. Nov 30 2014 23:52. Posts 13044
On November 30 2014 18:32 soberstone wrote:
I think Browne is a better striker with much better movement and physical gifts. I see way no Schaub wins the fight whatsoever besides by KO, and the likelihood of that isn't all that high. I'm interested to see this fight now because I genuinely think you are way off on this one and usually when I feel that way I'm either really really right or really really wrong, rarely any middle ground. In other words, its rare that I've seen in these forums where I think a -300 guy is a good value and you think the other guy is great value - in MMA when people are big favs/dogs, it's rare there is value on either, and we're normally not that far apart, so I'm intrigued.
You are right, I have no clue what Puertorican is thinking, Shaub is 2-3 in his last 5 fights and those 2 wins were against Mitrione and Lavar Johnson ffs
Nice. Did you make a deposit or just bet on the freerolls?
I deposited $20 when I first started, but I just do the free rolls now. There's so many free rolls every week that it's not worth using your own money. Once I can luck out and get top 3 in a couple more events, I'll take a stab at the big-money events that cost $25+ to enter.
Rekrul is a newb
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iakim322 United States. Dec 01 2014 16:22. Posts 1335
I guess I'll be another of the few that likes Schaub at 3:1 too. Lots of Browne KO1 Schaub scenarios obviously but I don't actually think Browne's movement is good. And I think his fight IQ mostly sucks. And he reacted to his embarrassment vs Werdum by leaving Greg Jackson's gym for Ronda Rousey's coach while being bitter / making excuses about camp. And Ronda Rousey's coach is good for nothing but talking shit about how good he is with Ronda when really, he's just insanely lucky that his fighter is a super athlete compared to everyone of the same sex.
Also like Pettis even at -200. Think Melendez has an underrated fight IQ and is always so scrappy but the speed in kicks / talent gap just seems to be too much.
I like how you bash on coaches you've probably never met as if you've worked with them first hand for years :D
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PuertoRican United States. Dec 01 2014 18:56. Posts 13044
I love these videos~
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As for Travis Browne, it's true that he's at Edmond's gym for this fight and hasn't been at Jackson's MMA for awhile. One of Browne's training partners is Anthony Hamilton, while the other 3 or so guys are unknown people who aren't MMA fighters and are only proficient in one discipline (at least that's how it sounded when Browne described them).
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 01/12/2014 19:34
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K40Cheddar United States. Dec 01 2014 19:38. Posts 2202
On November 30 2014 17:03 PuertoRican wrote:
If both chins were equal, there wouldn't -- and shouldn't -- be any discussion on who would win, since Schaub is the better overall fighter.
You on crack bro?
GG
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soberstone United States. Dec 01 2014 22:05. Posts 2662
In the Hendricks v Lawler fight, I do think the one thing Robbie has going for him is that he's been super active and I could see him opening up early and taking a lead, which could change the dynamic of the fight. I do believe the injury did fuck with Johnny in the first fight though so I don't see Lawler winning if he gives up the first round or two like last time. Hendrick's chin and defense just too good at this point. Lawler will need to get it done early this time (not necessarily a KO) but definetely some good work to slow Johhny down. Wouldn't bet on this fight, I'm intrigued and think the odds are spot on. I bet on Lawler the first fight and almost came up big, the spread was too wide on that one - especially since Johnny's chin hadn't been tested the way it was in that fight at that point. Even though that fight was close, I thought Johnny's heart, fight-IQ (which was terrible early on in his career), and chin were all attributes that were only proven in that fight.
As far as the Browne v Big Brown, I don't care about the camp changes and all that, could work in either direction, not like Schaub trains at a 'Elite' camp either anyway. Browne's striking is a bit flashier, not that much better, but he has more power, a much better chin, and a much longer reach, which is what really matters here IMO. Cardio they are both strong in for HW's, and I don't see it going 3 anyway. In the clinch he's probably way stronger and will knee/elbow Schaub with impunity. I doubt Schaub gets him down more than once, maybe he expends an insane amount of energy on a TD early in which case he won't sub him anyway and than would probably slow down from there and get KO'd.
TBH it's not like I really like betting on this fight too much, would probably put it in a small parlay with Fergusson and the Pettis's or something if I was feeling frisky.
Like I said before, Duffee is so over-rated to this day it's crazy. Sure he might highlight Hamilton or just make him look terrible by KOing him with a power jab or something, but he could also run into something big and get hilariously KO'd, fairly unlikely but his chin is suspect, and if it goes past the first round, Hamilton will just need even decent cardio to win. I don't know if he has it because its 2014 HW in the UFC, so who really knows. Could get ugly and bad from there if he doesn't (Duffee's performance vs Russow was embarrassing)
Best bet on the card (which, full disclosure, I said the best bet on the last card was Rosholt who got KTFO) is Fergusson. He is going to pick Trujillo apart so bad on the feet and than probably take him down and sub him in the 2nd or 3rd rd. Fergusson is an awesome, well-rounded fighter with no obvious weaknesses besides not being the best wrestler, and Trujillo doesn't wrestle. He's a brawler who was getting out-brawled by an idiotic Jamie Varner who finally ran into what was coming to him. Fergusson can beat Trujillo in absolutely anyway he wants and just needs to not run into the perfect punch, which he won't because he's one of the best boxers, offensively and defensively, in the UFC.
Finally, just watch the Collard vs White fight because its the first fight of the night and is gonna be awesome, nontechnical violence.
Last edit: 01/12/2014 22:11
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PuertoRican United States. Dec 02 2014 22:10. Posts 13044
Nice Man. How do you find this freerolls? I tried and I cant find them without your links : S
Some of them I already know about, like MMA Oddsbreaker, Fury's Fight Picks, and the Morency & Black links. For the ones I don't know about, I get them from the Sherdog "MMA Betting Thread" that I visit every day.
Really solid card. Still wish cards like this would have a little more depth to them but those days seem to be gone. For modern UFC this is pretty sick.
ye it's a great card considering the amount of events they are making these days. most of the time i'm only interested in the main event or 2 fights max. I stopped being a fan of MMA though so I only look forward to watching fights that seem appealing to me.
Netherlands. Dec 03 2014 07:18. Posts 7080
