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UFC FN 53: Nelson vs. Story

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PuertoRican   United States. Sep 28 2014 23:55. Posts 13030

Date: Saturday, October 4th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 11:10 LP.net / 9:10am PST / 12:10pm EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 14:00 LP.net / 12pm PST / 3pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Gunnar Nelson (13-0-1) vs. Rick Story (17-8) (Welterweight)
Akira Corassani (12-4) vs. Max Holloway (10-3) (Featherweight)
Ilir Latifi (9-3) vs. Jan Blachowicz (17-3) (Light Heavyweight)
Niklas Backstrom (8-0) vs. Mike Wilkinson (8-1) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Magnus Cedenblad (12-4) vs. Scott Askham (12-0) (Middleweight)
Nico Musoke (12-3) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (21-5-1) (Welterweight)
Dennis Siver (21-9) vs. Charles Rosa (9-0) (Featherweight)
Cathal Pendred (14-2-1) vs. Gasan Umalatov (15-3-1) (Welterweight)
Tor Troeng (16-6-1) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (14-1) (Middleweight)
Mairbek Taisumov (21-5) vs. Marcin Bandel (13-2) (Welterweight)
Zubaira Tukhugov (16-3) vs. Ernest Chavez (7-1) (Featherweight)

Other

- Amir Sadollah was briefly scheduled to face Nico Musoke at the event. However, Sadollah was pulled from the pairing with Musoke in favor of a bout with Yoshihiro Akiyama on September 20, 2014 at UFC Fight Night 52. Musoke will now face Alexander Yakovlev.
- Akira Corassani was expected to face Chan Sung Jung at the event. However, Jung pulled out of the bout citing a strained shoulder and was replaced by Max Holloway.
- Dennis Siver was expected to face Robert Whiteford at the event. However, Whiteford pulled out of the bout, and was replaced by Taylor Lapilus. In turn, the Swedish Mixed Martial Arts Federation deemed Lapilus an unsuitable opponent and Charles Rosa was tabbed to face Siver. (Unsuitable, as in, he faced a bunch of cans in France, a place where ground-and-pound is illegal. Lapilus basically built up his record in MMA while using rules made for babies.)

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 29/09/2014 16:41

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 28 2014 23:59. Posts 13030



----------

First thoughts on this European-friendly card:

• Nelson > Story (Story is aggressive, which will play into Nelson' game.)
• Holloway > Corassani
• Latifi > Blachowicz (Bad match-up for Blachowicz.)
• Backstrom > Wilkinson
• Musoke > Yakovlev
• Siver > Rosa

Not sure about the rest. Seems like a card that will cost people a lot of money unless they actually do a ton of research, which I'm not gonna do.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 29/09/2014 16:41

Daut    United States. Sep 29 2014 02:07. Posts 8955

why is nelson such a big favorite over story? he could barely outwrestle the gigantic can he fought last time, how does he have any hope of taking down story?

gunnar is a great talent, but hes too passive and his wrestling is too bad to make it far in the division right now. he needs to change his approach

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

Stim_Abuser   United States. Sep 29 2014 14:41. Posts 7499

Yea, Story at +290 seems ridiculously off.

Gunnar is also very small for WW. IIRC he walks around at 175ish.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

goose58   United States. Sep 29 2014 16:42. Posts 871

It's because nelson is undefeated and finishes most of his opponents, compared to story who loses frequently and goes to decision often.

I'm rooting for story though just because hes from my hometown.


soberstone   United States. Sep 29 2014 20:28. Posts 2662

Can't believe that Story is that big of a dog. Gunnar's top game is incredible, but this is not a tailor-made matchup for him. Story is great wrestler, has great power. His sub defense is questionable which does play nicely if Gunnar can smother him, but if he can't, he might be in trouble. We'll see how far along Gunnar has come.

I'm not on his hype train like I am McGregor's.


soberstone   United States. Sep 29 2014 20:31. Posts 2662

Holloway is close to a lock, and I know nothing about Wilkinson, but Backstrom has been very impressive offensively.


Stim_Abuser   United States. Sep 30 2014 06:57. Posts 7499

I agree Story is very inconsistent, but most of his recent loses other than Maia were super close fights that he could of won or at least got a draw.

Story should have a wrestling, size, and power advantage. Gunnar is tiny for WW, and Story is a powerhouse. Gunnar is more technical, consistent, and has a better fight IQ. But him being a 3-1 favorite seems way off.

Story arguably beat Kevin Gastelum recently, who I personally think is much better than Gunnar. A better wrestler and a better striker.

Basically no one has blown Story out of the water other than Maia, who is a huge WW who almost certainly has way better takedowns than Gunnar.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny peteLast edit: 30/09/2014 07:06

goose58   United States. Sep 30 2014 13:14. Posts 871

Interesting analysis, now I really want to see this fight.


PuertoRican   United States. Sep 30 2014 13:47. Posts 13030


  On September 30 2014 05:57 Stim_Abuser wrote:
I agree Story is very inconsistent, but most of his recent loses other than Maia were super close fights that he could of won or at least got a draw.

Story should have a wrestling, size, and power advantage. Gunnar is tiny for WW, and Story is a powerhouse. Gunnar is more technical, consistent, and has a better fight IQ. But him being a 3-1 favorite seems way off.

Story arguably beat Kevin Gastelum recently, who I personally think is much better than Gunnar. A better wrestler and a better striker.

Basically no one has blown Story out of the water other than Maia, who is a huge WW who almost certainly has way better takedowns than Gunnar.



Story is the smaller guy here. He's 5'10 with a 71 inch reach, while Gunnar is 5'11 with a 72 inch reach. Story is probably the stronger of the two.

I don't think Story beat Gastelum, even though it was close.

Story offers Gunnar some problems, I just don't feel like putting any money on him in this fight, probably cuz Story is inconsistent with his gas tank and skills (he has switched between 1 win/1 loss in his last 8 fights).

Rekrul is a newb 

Nazgul    Netherlands. Sep 30 2014 15:11. Posts 7080

Bet $100 on Story +277 definitely think he is undervalued. Nelson comes in with a lot of hype but I feel he fights with too little urgency and Story may not let him get away with that.

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

Zadan   Canada. Sep 30 2014 15:46. Posts 971

I believe story is a good bet here also don't think gunnar was that impressive last fight at all


Stim_Abuser   United States. Sep 30 2014 20:44. Posts 7499


  On September 30 2014 12:47 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +



Story is the smaller guy here. He's 5'10 with a 71 inch reach, while Gunnar is 5'11 with a 72 inch reach. Story is probably the stronger of the two.

I don't think Story beat Gastelum, even though it was close.

Story offers Gunnar some problems, I just don't feel like putting any money on him in this fight, probably cuz Story is inconsistent with his gas tank and skills (he has switched between 1 win/1 loss in his last 8 fights).


Height =/= size.

It's pretty well known Nelson walks around at 178-180 pounds. That's the size of most UFC LW's. Actually his coaches have said he could easily make LW. Most WW's these days are 190-200 pounds, including Rick Story. Gunnar might be an inch taller, much Story is built like a tank.

I mean Gunnar hardly looks bigger than McGregor.



I think Gunnar is very talented, but I don't think he's big enough for 170. I guess we'll see though, as Story is probably one of the strongest most powerful WW's in the UFC.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny peteLast edit: 30/09/2014 20:53

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 30 2014 22:17. Posts 13030




Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 30/09/2014 23:54

soberstone   United States. Oct 01 2014 01:27. Posts 2662

Man, that Macdonald vs Saffedeine fight is this weekend, and I def. think it is a dog or pass fight where the odds are at now (Mac at -500, Saf +400). I really think it's not as great of a matchup for Rory as the odds seem to show. I do think he'll win because his cardio is outstanding and its a 5 rounder, but if Saf lands good low kicks early without getting taken down, it could be very close.


Stim_Abuser   United States. Oct 01 2014 12:09. Posts 7499

So one reason I've come up with as to why Gunnar is such a big favorite is that it's a 5 round fight and Story tends to fade by the 3rd round lately. At least against Gastelum & Pyle. Though both of those fights were wars which I don't think this one will be so who knows.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

PuertoRican   United States. Oct 01 2014 15:39. Posts 13030




There's a cut above Story's left eye. Dunno how recent it is.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Oct 02 2014 19:49. Posts 2662


  On October 01 2014 11:09 Stim_Abuser wrote:
So one reason I've come up with as to why Gunnar is such a big favorite is that it's a 5 round fight and Story tends to fade by the 3rd round lately. At least against Gastelum & Pyle. Though both of those fights were wars which I don't think this one will be so who knows.



Good point. For whatever reason I was thinking about this as a 3 rounder. The 5 round aspect does favor Gunnar although I still think the odds are a bit wide. Won't be touching this tho. The Saffediene line at +450 on some sites is insanely juicy tho IMO.


DustySwedeDude   Sweden. Oct 03 2014 04:47. Posts 8623

I think the most common idea is that Story is the kind of guy that will sooner or later fail on his fight IQ and go for a take down, much like that annoying guy did vs Mackenzie or whatever his name is (guillotine dude) in the lightweight season of TUF.

For my part I'm not happy with the odds on Gunni considering how he was kind of rocked against Santiago. Don't think his gas tank looked great in that fight and the ones after that has been to short/uneventful to judge his cardo.

Not gonna bet story either, dude doesn't seem very solid when it comes to the mental parts of the game. Thinking Gunni sub at evens might be ok, not sure though.

Other then that I think Holloway KO might be a decent prob even though odds aren't great and he's on somewhat short notice. I just feel like I should fade Akira in most match ups. He's a tough guy with decent cardio and everything, but he's not very good at any area and tends to get finished a lot.

I have the KO prop om Bäckström and under 1.5. I think the other guy is overmatched and the odds on KO is much better then sub. Bäckströms grappling gets a lot of praise but he gets a lot of KO's too.

I think Latifi should win, but I feel lost from a capping perspective. The Polish guy might be completely over matched or just good enough to hang in there and maybe get a decision or even a late finish. Might live bet though, got some kind of plan.

I think Cedenblad blows out Askham in the first, and I have bets on that and Cedenblad by sub. If it somehow goes past the first 1.5 I'll live bet Askham I think.

Think Mairbek Taisumov vs. Marcin Bandel might be a fun fight.

Might fade Musoke due to not being at Alliance anymore, not sure though, most people think the other guy might not be super good either.

Also really lost on Tor, dude's support to be super smart but he does weird things in fights.


PuertoRican   United States. Oct 03 2014 15:54. Posts 13030

Rekrul is a newb 

 
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