UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso

Date: Saturday, September 27th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (PPV)

Demetrious Johnson (20-2-1) vs. Chris Cariaso (17-5) (Flyweight Championship)
Donald Cerrone (24-6) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-3) (Lightweight)
Dustin Poirier (16-3) vs. Conor McGregor (15-2) (Featherweight)
Tim Kennedy (18-4) vs. Yoel Romero (8-1) (Middleweight)
Cat Zingano (8-0) vs. Amanda Nunes (9-3) (Women's Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Dominick Cruz (19-1) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (20-7-2) (Bantamweight)
Jorge Masvidal (27-8) vs. James Krause (21-5) (Lightweight)
Patrick Cote (20-8) vs. Stephen Thompson (9-1) (Welterweight)
John Howard (22-9) vs. Brian Ebersole (50-16-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Jon Tuck (8-1) vs. Kevin Lee (8-1) (Lightweight)
Manvel Gamburyan (13-8) vs. Cody Gibson (12-4) (Bantamweight)

Other

- The event was supposed to be headlined by a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship rematch between champion Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson. Jones won their first fight at UFC 165 by unanimous decision. Gustafsson pulled out of the bout due to a torn right meniscus and lateral collateral ligament. He was replaced by Daniel Cormier on July 23. However, on August 12, Jones was forced to pull out of the bout against Cormier citing a leg injury. The fight will now take place at UFC 182. As a result, a Flyweight Title fight between Demetrious Johnson and Chris Cariaso was moved from UFC 177 to headline this card.
- The event marks the return of former bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, after nearly three years on the sideline, first with a coaching assignment on The Ultimate Fighter 15, then with various lengthy injury rehabilitations. He is scheduled to fight Takeya Mizugaki.
- A lightweight bout between Donald Cerrone and Khabib Nurmagomedov was briefly linked to this event. The pairing was cancelled after Nurmagomedov suffered a knee injury that will sideline him indefinitely.
- Jorge Masvidal and Bobby Green were originally scheduled to face each other on this card. However, on August 14, the UFC announced that Green would now face Donald Cerrone and Masvidal would face James Krause.
- On August 19, following his release from Bellator MMA, Eddie Alvarez signed with the UFC and will debut against Donald Cerrone in the co-main event for the card. Bobby Green, Cerrone's earlier opponent, will be booked for a future fight card against a new opponent.

First thoughts:

• Johnson > Cariaso
• Cerrone > Alvarez (I like Alvarez but, Cerrone is a bad match-up for him, especially as his UFC debut. I have a bet on Cerrone at +110 that I made a month ago.)
• McGregor > Poirier (Already have a bet on Poirier I made over a month ago at +150. I slightly favor McGregor but, this is his biggest test thus far, imo.)
• Kennedy vs. Romero (Not sure how to cap this, but I slightly favor Kennedy. I won't bet it though.)
• Zingano > Nunes (This is a match I'm staying far from. Zingano has been away from fighting for 17 months, rehabing her knees. Her Wikipedia say, "Zingano underwent PRP and stem cell treatment on both of her knees." Also, her husband and BJJ coach/head coach, Mauricio Zingano, killed himself on January 13, 2014, so who knows how Cat is dealing with that. She's damaged goods atm, she needs to win this match before I'll bet on her again. Nunes is also no joke on the feet and will have the height advantage.)
• Cruz > Mizugaki (This is Cruz' return to MMA, he hasn't fought since October 2011, which is 1 month shy of being away from MMA for 3 years.)
• Masvidal > Krause (I like both guys but, Krause' biggest strength is his reach, kicks, and BJJ. Masvidal is miles ahead of Krause in boxing and head/foot movement, and possibly just kickboxing altogether. The only way Krause wins is by submission.)
• Thompson > Cote (Cote will have to grind Thompson against the cage and get take downs, or else he'll lose the striking battle. Cote's biggest strength is his aggression and grinding against the cage, as well as his chin. Thompson's TDD has improved, so he might be able to stop every take down here.)
• Howard > Ebersole (Bad match-up for Ebersole. Ebersole' striking sucks and he won't be able to take down Howard unless he can get a trip. Howard is shorter, stronger, hits harder, and has the better chin. Pure aggression and maybe even a TKO will be the way Howard wins.)
• Lee > Tuck
• Gibson > Gamburyan (Gamburyan' first drop to 135 pounds, and he'll still be the shorter guy by 5 inches. I'd take Gamburyan by KO/TKO prop, and Gibson' ML.)

Oh nice Cruz, hopefully he ll dominate and get a title shot soon to make the title fight interesting


Edit: how is Barao above Dillashaw in the pound for pound @ UFC lol

Demetrious inside distance at +120 is a very good bet IMO.

Conor came out as something like a -140 favorite. Shoulda jumped all over that. Now he's -260 and I think that's a fine line. In fact I don't think I'd take Poirier at anything less than a full 3 to 1. Maybe this is where the hype crashes, but I think his striking/athleticism at least is for real and Poirier has looked right there for the taking even in this 'looks impressive from the outside' win streak he's on. Would like to see more opinions on this one

Johnson > Cariaso

Cerrone vs Alvarez - Too close to call IMO

McGregor >>>>> Poirier - I don't even think this fight is close ,yah, I know - hype hype hype - we'll see, I have no clue how Poirer would win this fight at all and I've been doing some studying for this one, McGregor is SO much better standing and I have no reason to believe he'll get taken down, he's far more athletic, mobile, and strong - and his boxing/karate style keeps his base low at all times.

Kennedy > Romero - Rooting for Romero, love him and it is close because he's much more explosive offensively but I'd def bet Kennedy at + odds - he's more well rounded and technical on the feet and is obviously a really good wrestler as well

Zingano vs Nunez - No clue

Cruz > Mizugaki - I just have a strong feeling Cruz will be near his old self, he's such a professional

Masvidal > Krause

Thompson >>>>>>> Cote - The chin is going to finally break in this fight

Howard > Ebersole

Lee > Tuck - Could be wrong here but I was very impressed with Lee vs Iaquinta and have never been impressed with Tuck

Gibson >>>>> Manny unless Manny LnP's - Gibson is quick and pretty damn technical, I don't think he gets hit with anything big and clean early on

On September 21 2014 19:28 iakim322 wrote: Conor came out as something like a -140 favorite. Shoulda jumped all over that. Now he's -260 and I think that's a fine line. In fact I don't think I'd take Poirier at anything less than a full 3 to 1. Maybe this is where the hype crashes, but I think his striking/athleticism at least is for real and Poirier has looked right there for the taking even in this 'looks impressive from the outside' win streak he's on. Would like to see more opinions on this one

I agree with this (as you can see above). I actually think if either is over-rated, it's Poirier, and I love the guy. He's very exciting and goes for it but I don't think he can hang with the Elite guys and he has shit head movement, not great wrestling (he's very exciting in scrambles), and straight-forward striking.

i thought it was rumble johnson fighting

$500 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/32592...on-ufc-178-johnson-vs-cariaso-T-free/

First time I enter something like that let's see how it goes

Great card, basically every fight is interesting. Haven't watched a card lately where I was interested in as many fights as in this one.
I am not that active with MMA lately, my thoughts:


• Johnson > Cariaso = Not gonna bet against Johnson until I get proven otherwise
• Cerrone > Alvarez = Alvarez makes his debut and Cerrone is a brawler, Alvarez gets caught a lot, this is exciting
• McGregor > Poirier = Not on the hype train but Gregor should take this
• Kennedy < Romero = Romero is getting old and his striking is awkward at times, I am just not a big Kennedy fan and route for Romero
• Zingano > Nunes -> Don't care
• Cruz > Mizugaki = Lets hope Cruz can come back and he has recovered from the 3 year layoff. He seemed hungry all the way through, lets hope he can perform
• Masvidal > Krause = Krause is very interesting but Masvidal should have the upper hand
• Thompson > Cote = Not a Cote fan
• Howard > Ebersole = Ebersole seems to have a low point in his career and he is not getting any younger, but I am not sure what the situation with Howard is.
• Lee > Tuck = don't know, don't care
• Gibson > Gamburyan = No clue, Gamburyan could be back on track, not much info on Gibson

MM + Connor + Cruz

cerrone vs alvarez is an incredible fight. like fisheye said, alvarez does get caught quite a bit. but on the flip side he is just the superior fighter. better wrestler, better athlete, better boxer. really tough to balance it and figure out who should be favored, especially in a 3 round fight. a shame its not 5 rounds.


i think mcgregor is going to pick poirier apart. this is kinda similar to cerrone vs alvarez in the sense that poirier gets caught every fight. except here mcgregor is clearly the better striker and i think he has enough defensive wrestling/grappling to stop poirier from succeeding at a different strategy.


kennedy vs romero is an awesome fight. could end up pretty boring, but great matchmaking, good test for both guys. no real opinion on it, seems like a pick em to me.


regarding cruz:

BJJ Scout @bjjscout · 7h … That's just weird, vid shows Cruz striking southpaw now, apprehensive to pivoting on the left (operated) leg?

mizugaki is a good fighter, but not in the same league as cruz pre injuries. but if cruz is at all apprehensive or slow, mizugaki is good enough to take advantage of him. really hope cruz can make a comeback because his addition along with dillashaw/barao would make 135 really exciting

Agree with general thoughts on Cerrone vs Alvarez & McGregor vs Dustin.

I think Tim Kennedy > Yoel Romero.

Daut told me about Yoel a long time ago and I was pretty hyped on him, but since then his wrestling has been far from impressive despite having the best credentials in MMA history basically.

In joining the UFC/strikeforce his wrestling stats as followed

7/12 against Tavares, who was 0/3

0/4 against Brunson, who was 3/5 against him.

0/1 against Markes, who was 2/6 against him.

0/6 against Feijao.

Only person he's really been able to really out wrestle in his Career since joining strikeforce is Brad Tavares. I think Kennedy is a better wrestler than anyone on that list, maybe aside from Feijao. Definitely the best overall grappler on that list.

Also think Kennedy is the superior striker. Yoel has crazy power and explosiveness, but also shit defense and tends to get hit a lot.

Kind of surprised Yoel is the favorite. I guess there is the arguement that Yoel wasn't really trying to use his wrestling much in his MMA career and just looking for the knockout, and is finally deciding to use it which is why he dominated Tavares with it. Dunno if I by that though, he was thoroughly handled by Brunson for two rounds.

Man if this had Jones v Cormier still it would really be the best card of all time top to bottom, I truly believe that. Instead it's just a really awesome deep card with a shitty ass head liner. Not trying be negative on DJ, but Cariaso... come on.

On September 21 2014 19:28 iakim322 wrote: Conor came out as something like a -140 favorite. Shoulda jumped all over that. Now he's -260 and I think that's a fine line. In fact I don't think I'd take Poirier at anything less than a full 3 to 1. Maybe this is where the hype crashes, but I think his striking/athleticism at least is for real and Poirier has looked right there for the taking even in this 'looks impressive from the outside' win streak he's on. Would like to see more opinions on this one

Pretty sure he opened at +190

Yea Conor opened at +190.

I dunno I usually don't fall for hype trains like this, but I think Conor is probably gonna merk Dustin. He's very athletic, moves great, sets up his strikes very well, big for the division, and seems to have a pretty high fight IQ.

I can't ever remember odds moving so much on an MMA fighter. From +190 to -270ish. And it moved that much in about 1 week.

On September 22 2014 04:08 Nazgul wrote: First time I enter something like that let's see how it goes