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UFC FN 52: Hunt vs. Nelson

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PuertoRican   United States. Sep 14 2014 21:58. Posts 13023

Date: Saturday, September 20th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 9:30pm PST / 12:30am EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 2:00 LP.net / 12am PST / 3am EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Mark Hunt (9-8-1) vs. Roy Nelson (20-9) (Heavyweight)
Myles Jury (14-0) vs. Takanori Gomi (35-9) (Lightweight)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5) vs. Amir Sadollah (6-4) (Welterweight)
Miesha Tate (14-5) vs. Rin Nakai (16-0-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Kiichi Kunimoto (17-5-2) vs. Richard Walsh (8-1) (Welterweight)
Kyoji Horiguchi (13-1) vs. Jon Delos Reyes (7-3) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Alex Caceres (10-6) vs. Masanori Kanehara (23-11-5) (Bantamweight)
Katsunori Kikuno (21-6-2) vs. Sam Sicilia (13-4) (Featherweight)
Hyun Gyu Lim (12-4-1) vs. Takenori Sato (17-9-7) (Welterweight)
Michinori Tanaka (10-0) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (12-7) (Bantamweight)
Kazuki Tokudome (12-5-1) vs. Johnny Case (18-4) (Lightweight)
Maximo Blanco (10-6-1) vs. Dan Hooker (11-4) (Featherweight)

Other

- Tatsuya Kawajiri was briefly linked to a matchup at the event with Darren Elkins, but the bout never materialized as Kawajiri was sidelined indefinitely with a detached retina.
- Chris Cariaso was originally scheduled to face Kyoji Horiguchi at the event. However, Cariaso was pulled from the bout with Horoguchi in favor of a matchup with current flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson at UFC 177. Horiguchi is now expected to face Jon Delos Reyes.
- Kyle Noke was expected to face Yoshihiro Akiyama at the event, but eventually was forced out of the bout with a knee injury. Akiyama is now expected to face Amir Sadollah.
- Urijah Faber was briefly linked to a bout with Masanori Kanehara at the event. However, before the bout was officially announced, Faber was removed due to injury and Kanehara will now face Alex Caceres.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 17/09/2014 17:05

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 14 2014 22:06. Posts 13023



----------

First thoughts:

• Hunt > Nelson (Hunt has the better cardio and, Nelson has proven over and over that he's not deadly past the 1st round. I like Mark Hunt's ML and o1.5 rounds. Also, Hunt has really good head movement during the first 1.5 rounds of a fight and has a great chin, while Nelson has the best chin in all of MMA. Hunt wasn't able to finish Bigfoot in their fight, although Bigfoot did use some last minute "juice" after the weigh-ins. o1.5 just seems really good here.)
• Jury > Gomi (Realistically, Jury should win by decision here, if not by submission on the floor. Who knows though, since Jury is fighting in Asia, while Japanese fighters always fight better at home.)
• Akiyama > Sadollah (Probably Akiyama by decision, unless he can swarm Sadollah in round 1 for a TKO.)
• Tate vs. Nakai (Not sure how this will end up. I know Nakai has good grappling, but I don't know how her stand-up is. I assume it will suck, though. Tate has gotten worse over the years, but I'm not familiar enough with Nakai to say it will be a close fight or not.)
• Kunimoto > Walsh
• Horiguchi > Reyes
• Caceres > Kanehara
• Kikuno > Sicilia
• Lim > Sato
• Tanaka > Kang (I hope Kang wins, but I think Tanaka will capitalize on Kang slowing down mid-fight. Tanaka has trained with team Alpha Male in the past.)
• Tokudome vs. Case (dunno)
• Blanco vs. Hooker (dunno. Blanco is such a let down, it doesn't matter if he wins or loses.)

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 14/09/2014 22:12

Baalim   Mexico. Sep 15 2014 03:16. Posts 34246

It would be extremely dissapointed if Hunt manages to get hit by the right overhand... he has been a striker for too long to get hit by such a predictable and slow punch and I think that is the only way Nelson can win this, maybe he can go for a takedown early and try to gas Hunt and that would quickly turn into a slow bloody brawl

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

handbanana21   United States. Sep 15 2014 03:43. Posts 3037


  On September 15 2014 02:16 Baalim wrote:
It would be extremely dissapointed if Hunt manages to get hit by the right overhand... he has been a striker for too long to get hit by such a predictable and slow punch and I think that is the only way Nelson can win this, maybe he can go for a takedown early and try to gas Hunt and that would quickly turn into a slow bloody brawl



For a heavyweight that overhand moves pretty damn fast


Baalim   Mexico. Sep 15 2014 06:13. Posts 34246


  On September 15 2014 02:43 handbanana21 wrote:
Show nested quote +



For a heavyweight that overhand moves pretty damn fast


Fast or slow its meaningless when you know its coming especially a guy like Hunt who should be literally only worried about that, unlike somebody like Nogeira who can be hurt by different strikes by nelson like that uppercut he was catching him with, Hunt can walk past anything Nelson throws that is not that right overhand, in fact I think Nelson doesnt have much power with any other strike, his jabs are very weak and all his lefts are below an avg striker

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

Liquid`Drone   Norway. Sep 15 2014 09:21. Posts 3093

can't believe hunt is still competitive.. the first fighting I ever really watched was K1 back in 2001 and he was one of the top dogs back then, mad impressive that he has managed to kinda keep up with how fighting has evolved at the age of 40.

lol POKER 

Nazgul    Netherlands. Sep 15 2014 10:34. Posts 7080

I bet Hunt for a small bet early on at -170 and for a larger bet at -145. I'm not counting Nelson out with his power and Hunt's willingness to trade, but I don't see why Hunt isn't a bigger favorite. For one thing Nelson has almost solely round 1 knockouts and after that he is too gassed to KO anyone. Once he is too gassed to win by KO I don't see him outstriking Hunt for points. So basically Hunt a K-1 striker with a strong chin only has to make it through one round with Nelson. Can someone explain these odds?

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 15 2014 11:20. Posts 9634

Roy Nelson and a 5 round match....
They should give odds for 4th round forfeit by Nelson due to lack of air
Actually this is what I'd do if wanted to boot Nelson out of the UFC, force him into a 5 round match :D

 Last edit: 15/09/2014 11:21

soberstone   United States. Sep 15 2014 18:18. Posts 2662


  On September 15 2014 09:34 Nazgul wrote:
I bet Hunt for a small bet early on at -170 and for a larger bet at -145. I'm not counting Nelson out with his power and Hunt's willingness to trade, but I don't see why Hunt isn't a bigger favorite. For one thing Nelson has almost solely round 1 knockouts and after that he is too gassed to KO anyone. Once he is too gassed to win by KO I don't see him outstriking Hunt for points. So basically Hunt a K-1 striker with a strong chin only has to make it through one round with Nelson. Can someone explain these odds?



The edge probably isn't bigger because if Nelson really wanted to, and was able to take it to the ground, he would sub him fairly easily. Nelson is a fairly high-level heavyweight submission grappler and while Hunt has definitely improved there, he's no match for Nelson on the ground. I don't expect it to go there though.

I like Hunt by decision at +320 the most.

Oh, and I see Nelson by sub at +1000 on sites which is very good IMO.

 Last edit: 15/09/2014 18:27

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 15 2014 18:52. Posts 13023

Roy Nelson' black belt in BJJ is a myth.

In modern day MMA, he's facing guys who are more well rounded and can defend well on the ground, which means Nelson will be forced to use more energy getting it there, then even more energy moving his fat body on the mat. He saves time and energy by relying on his chin and overhand-right to get the job done. Also, the last time he submitted anyone was in 2006.

If his chin wasn't so good, he would've been cut from the UFC long ago, obv.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Sep 15 2014 19:08. Posts 2662


  On September 15 2014 17:52 PuertoRican wrote:
Roy Nelson' black belt in BJJ is a myth.

In modern day MMA, he's facing guys who are more well rounded and can defend well on the ground, which means Nelson will be forced to use more energy getting it there, then even more energy moving his fat body on the mat. He saves time and energy by relying on his chin and overhand-right to get the job done. Also, the last time he submitted anyone was in 2006.

If his chin wasn't so good, he would've been cut from the UFC long ago, obv.



Again, Mark Hunt's ground game has improved since this, but Sean fucking McKorkle pulled guard on him and submitted him with the most basic armbar ever in 1 minute, in the UFC 4 years ago.

Meanwhile, Nelson's bjj is not a myth, he just chooses not to use it, probably for cardio reasons like you said, and like I said, he probably won't here either. He has a black belt under Renzo Gracie and did admirably at Abu Dhabi. It's not a myth. That's ridiculous. I agree he doesn't use it for energy / hubristic reasons but please I would not at all be shocked if he chose to use it against Mark Hunt, who also almost got subbed by Ben fucking Rothwell too. The fact that you are completely ruling it out is wrong IMO.

 Last edit: 15/09/2014 19:08

Stim_Abuser   United States. Sep 15 2014 19:43. Posts 7499


  On September 15 2014 09:34 Nazgul wrote:
I bet Hunt for a small bet early on at -170 and for a larger bet at -145. I'm not counting Nelson out with his power and Hunt's willingness to trade, but I don't see why Hunt isn't a bigger favorite. For one thing Nelson has almost solely round 1 knockouts and after that he is too gassed to KO anyone. Once he is too gassed to win by KO I don't see him outstriking Hunt for points. So basically Hunt a K-1 striker with a strong chin only has to make it through one round with Nelson. Can someone explain these odds?



Probably the chances that Nelson can drag this down to the mat somehow. Can't remember the last person Nelson took down though.

Looking at fightmetric, in 12 UFC fights Roy Nelson has landed 2 takedowns. Both against Cro Cop. lol.

One thing to note is Hunt apparently started this training camp at 340 pounds O_O.

I agree Hunto should be a bigger favorite though.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 15 2014 21:00. Posts 13023

Rekrul is a newb 

Baalim   Mexico. Sep 16 2014 13:51. Posts 34246


  On September 15 2014 18:43 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Show nested quote +



Probably the chances that Nelson can drag this down to the mat somehow. Can't remember the last person Nelson took down though.




Yeah he potentially could go for it but as I said I think that would quickly drain both fighters and Hunt seems to me like a pretty efficient exhausted fighter, he doesnt over-react to punches he presents his forehead eats the weak punch and counters, we saw a lot of that vs Big Foot, Nelson on the other hand seems to crumble when exhausted and only backpedals to the cage

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 17 2014 11:50. Posts 13023

$250 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/32365...fight-night-52-hunt-vs-nelson-T-free/

Rekrul is a newb 

Stim_Abuser   United States. Sep 18 2014 17:04. Posts 7499

http://www.cagepotato.com/report-mark-hunt-still-has-to-cut-19-pounds-before-tomorrows-ufc-fight-night-52-weigh-ins/

Apparently hunt weighed in today at 284 pounds. So he's gotta cut 18 pounds before tomorrows weigh ins. That and the fact that he started his camp at 340 might make his odds not look so great anymore.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 18 2014 17:24. Posts 9634

There s no way he drops 8kgs in a day and still be in a condition to fight.
What happens if they have to drop a main event fighter?

 Last edit: 18/09/2014 17:24

Stim_Abuser   United States. Sep 18 2014 19:18. Posts 7499

He can def drop 18 pounds in a day. He's 284 pounds, so 18 pounds is only like 6-7% of his overall weight. Problem is he's 40 and never done it before so it'll likely have a big impact on his performance. Also a question of what kinda condition he's in in the first place.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

flounder44   United States. Sep 18 2014 19:29. Posts 916

wtf akiyama is still fighting in ufc?


PuertoRican   United States. Sep 18 2014 20:34. Posts 13023

Somebody mentioned that Hunt was unofficially retired until Dana called him to come back. I don't remember hearing or reading about it though, so I don't know when thos all happened. Hunt having to cut 18 pounds in a day is definitely not something he planned for. If he was a wrestler, I'd say he'll be okay after the weight cut, but he isn't a wrestler.

Hopefully the fight still happens.

Rekrul is a newb 

 
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