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UFC FN 50: Souza vs. Mousasi

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PuertoRican   United States. Sep 01 2014 15:14. Posts 13030

Date: Friday, September 5th
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Ronaldo Souza (20-3) vs. Gegard Mousasi (35-4-2) (Middleweight)
Alistair Overeem (37-13) vs. Ben Rothwell (33-9) (Heavyweight)
Matt Mitrione (7-3) vs. Derrick Lewis (11-2) (Heavyweight)
Joe Lauzon (23-9) vs. Michael Chiesa (11-1) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Nik Lentz (25-6-2) vs. Charles Oliveira (18-4) (Featherweight)
John Moraga (14-3) vs. Justin Scoggins (9-1) (Flyweight)
Al Iaquinta (8-3-1) vs. Rodrigo Damm (12-7) (Lightweight)
Rafael Natal (17-6-1) vs. Chris Camozzi (19-8) (Middleweight)
Tateki Matsuda (10-5) vs. Chris Beal (9-0) (Bantamweight)
Sean Soriano (8-1) vs. Chas Skelly (12-1) (Featherweight)

Other

- This event marks the first time the Ultimate Fighting Championship and Bellator MMA have had live shows (UFC Fight Night 50 vs. Bellator 123) go against each other. Additionally, both are being held in the same state in venues located within miles of each other.
- Initially, bantamweight bouts between Dustin Kimura vs. Ian Entwistle and Chris Beal vs. Rob Font were slated for the event. However, Entwistle and Font each pulled out of the bouts citing injuries. Subsequently, Kimura was briefly rescheduled to face Beal. In turn, Kimura also pulled out of the bout and was replaced by Tateki Matsuda.
- Andre Fili was expected to face Sean Soriano at the event. However, Fili was forced from the bout with an injury and replaced by Chas Skelly.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 05/09/2014 13:34

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 01 2014 15:21. Posts 13030

First thoughts:

• Mousasi > Souza
• Overeem > Rothwell
• Lewis > Mitrione (Mitrione can win if he he doesn't stand and trade. Lewis hits harder and has better TDD. Mitrione is the better pure boxer and has better movement.)
• Chiesa > Lauzon
• Oliveira > Lentz
• Moraga vs. Scoggins (dunno yet, since Scoggins less impressive in his last match when he he wasn't the superior grappler.)
• Iaquinta > Damm
• Natal > Camozzi (It will probably be close, but Natal usually fights better versus lesser opponents like Camozzi.)
• Beal > Matsuda (3rd opponent change for Beal.)
• Soriano vs. Skelly (dunno yet, tough to call.)

Rekrul is a newb 

NMcNasty    United States. Sep 01 2014 15:23. Posts 2039

Wtf this actually a very good card.

HOLD!!!


soberstone   United States. Sep 01 2014 17:50. Posts 2662

This card has some JUICY lines imo! Already placed.

Card: Date: Placed: Pick: Type: Amount: Line:
UFC FN 50 5 Sep 14 22 Aug 14 Mousasi > Souza SU $50.00 270
UFC FN 50 5 Sep 14 22 Aug 14 Mousasi via Decision SU $40.00 530
UFC FN 50 5 Sep 14 31 Aug 14 Oliveria > Lentz SU $20.00 -145
UFC FN 50 5 Sep 14 31 Aug 14 Scoggins > Moraga SU $100.00 -245
UFC FN 50 5 Sep 14 31 Aug 14 Lewis > Mitrione SU $30.00 -130
UFC FN 50 5 Sep 14 31 Aug 14 Chiesa > Lauzon SU $50.00 -145
UFC FN 50 5 Sep 14 31 Aug 14 Scoggins + Lewis + Chiesa PL $30.00 320
UFC FN 50 5 Sep 14 1 Sep 14 Scoggins + Iaquinta + Chiesa PL $30.00 200


soberstone   United States. Sep 01 2014 17:54. Posts 2662

This card is stacked for a FN. I can't believe the line on Mousasi v Souza, I got it when Gegard was still at +270 and +530 via decision (which it probably will be if he wins)

Not touching the Overeem fight, seems about right with the line... I think Chiesa is gonna smoke Lauzon and it sucks because he is my favorite fighter

Oliveria v Lentz is a great rematch (1st fight was a NC), not too confident but small bet on Charles, he's so damn slick.

Scoggins burned me last time vs Ortiz but I'm still all in on him as a prospect and I think he's gonna light Moraga up and will have a better gameplan than last time.

Lewis is going to knock Mittrione's head off.

I doubt Iaquinta falls into another retarded submission and that's Damm's only out.


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 01 2014 18:31. Posts 9634


  On September 01 2014 16:54 soberstone wrote:
Not touching the Overeem fight, seems about right with the line...



betting Overeeem is really bad overall imo, he s the most unpredictable HW


iakim322   United States. Sep 01 2014 18:34. Posts 1335

I'm pretty confused about the line for Mousasi vs Souza and there's not many times I can clearly say that. If I had to have guessed without looking, I would have pegged it as close to a toss up fight as possible. Maybe there's an argument that Mousasi is someone that peaked too early in his career but if you take out the Machida fight (which I think you can since Machida will make tons of people look not very good or boring), there doesn't seem to be anything for me to say he should be anything close to a 3 to 1 dog to anyone in the division besides Weidman and Machida. I'm also not even considering their first fight which Mousasi won since that was like 6 years ago which is an eternity in MMA. I guess Jacare has looked pretty impressive recently but still. What the deal.


iakim322   United States. Sep 01 2014 18:44. Posts 1335

Also think there's a high probability that Mitrione gets his head blasted off the canvas. But will really be rooting for him. I think I'm one of the very few that actually really likes Mitrione


iakim322   United States. Sep 01 2014 18:54. Posts 1335

He got a pretty raw deal either way through nobody's fault. He would've gotten a lot more credit from the public for a victory over Struve as opposed to Lewis. But Struve collapses, Matt still wants to fight asap because he was in camp, and gets assigned to fight someone who is extremely dangerous but is still unknown to the public and therefore won't get as much of a boost from a possible win. All with the possibility of getting brutally KO'd getting upped quite a bit


Nazgul    Netherlands. Sep 01 2014 19:05. Posts 7080

Overeem $2900 at -385 yay. Could get a freeroll already. That line came out so terribly off I bet it at -380, -385, and -395 for the max.

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

soberstone   United States. Sep 01 2014 19:22. Posts 2662

Weird thing about Souza line on top of all of it is that he couldn't even finish Carmont and had him in awful positions a great many times. I guess it is impressive that he got someone as strong as Carmont down and was able to transition on him so much, but all in all I would have liked to see a finish if I was going to set him as a 2:1 fav over Gegard, let alone 3.25:1. His KO of Okami was impressive but Yushin's chin is not the greatest....

Additionally, Gegard's td defense vs Munoz was unreal compared to his earlier career, and in listening to interviews, him talking about just continuing to strive in a huge way with the wrestling and working on his distance control and boxing is literally the perfect thing to hear for me as a guy betting on him. He fully acknowledges that this fight comes down to being able to keep it standing for the majority of it, and he's never been a slouch in the Jitz department anyway and has an amazing chin, I feel awesome about this bet.

Unfortunately in a vacuum it's still probably a pickem so it'll be a painful loss if it's like a close decision, and I do expect this to go the full 5.


soberstone   United States. Sep 01 2014 19:30. Posts 2662


  On September 01 2014 18:05 Nazgul wrote:
Overeem $2900 at -385 yay. Could get a freeroll already. That line came out so terribly off I bet it at -380, -385, and -395 for the max.



I never saw the line at that, definitely would've taken those odds. If Big Ben can somehow land clean even one time though Overeem could be in trouble, hence Ben ITD is practically the same as him SU. I highly doubt he will though, Overeem being smaller and quicker is very good for him in this fight.....

than again, could that mean he is coming off some 'supplements'?


alejandicto   . Sep 01 2014 19:45. Posts 865

Finally a very nice card, I am definitely betting on Mousasi at + 250.

Other bets I am thinking:

- Oliveira by submission
- Overeem by KO
- Chris Beal in a parlay maybe


Stim_Abuser   United States. Sep 01 2014 20:06. Posts 7499


  On September 01 2014 17:34 iakim322 wrote:
I'm pretty confused about the line for Mousasi vs Souza and there's not many times I can clearly say that. If I had to have guessed without looking, I would have pegged it as close to a toss up fight as possible. Maybe there's an argument that Mousasi is someone that peaked too early in his career but if you take out the Machida fight (which I think you can since Machida will make tons of people look not very good or boring), there doesn't seem to be anything for me to say he should be anything close to a 3 to 1 dog to anyone in the division besides Weidman and Machida. I'm also not even considering their first fight which Mousasi won since that was like 6 years ago which is an eternity in MMA. I guess Jacare has looked pretty impressive recently but still. What the deal.



Wrestling. Jacare has some of the best in the top 10 and Mousasi has the worst. So most people feel Jacare should be able to out wrestle him to a decision the majority of the time. And while Mousasi's stand up is very technical and good, I don't think he's really rocked/hurt many people standing other than Jardine who everyone and their mom was KOing at the time and some random japanese can. Almost all of his finishes come on the ground via submission and GnP tko. The ground is Jacare's world.

Jacare probably doesn't deserve to be 3-1, but he's definitely a favorite in my book. Probably -210ish is where he should be.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny peteLast edit: 01/09/2014 20:07

soberstone   United States. Sep 01 2014 20:24. Posts 2662


  On September 01 2014 19:06 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Show nested quote +



Wrestling. Jacare has some of the best in the top 10 and Mousasi has the worst. So most people feel Jacare should be able to out wrestle him to a decision the majority of the time. And while Mousasi's stand up is very technical and good, I don't think he's really rocked/hurt many people standing other than Jardine who everyone and their mom was KOing at the time and some random japanese can. Almost all of his finishes come on the ground via submission and GnP tko. The ground is Jacare's world.

Jacare probably doesn't deserve to be 3-1, but he's definitely a favorite in my book. Probably -210ish is where he should be.


That's a fair assessment, although Munoz got in deep multiple times and Moose's counter-wrestling looked outstanding, nothing like earlier in his career. Will that translate vs Jacare's wrestling? Perhaps not, but I'm def willing to take a shot at it.


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 01 2014 20:38. Posts 9634

If a UFC FN event( guessing XXX number event's promotion are much bigger than Fight Nights ) outweights that Bellator one, they should just give up and let the UFC buy them off or something

Seems like Main Event is the fight for the #1 contender after im guessing Belfort gets a chance to go vs Weidman?

 Last edit: 01/09/2014 20:43

2primenumbers   United States. Sep 01 2014 20:44. Posts 199

whar overeem jawr?

www.youtube.com/RichardGamingo - All of your commentated gaming entertainment. 

PuertoRican   United States. Sep 01 2014 22:07. Posts 13030

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Sep 01 2014 22:18. Posts 2662


  On September 01 2014 19:38 Spitfiree wrote:
If a UFC FN event( guessing XXX number event's promotion are much bigger than Fight Nights ) outweights that Bellator one, they should just give up and let the UFC buy them off or something

Seems like Main Event is the fight for the #1 contender after im guessing Belfort gets a chance to go vs Weidman?



If Jacare wins, pretty sure he gets the shot. If Gegard wins, it probably depends on timelines and other variables, but probably isn't a lock.

Belfort v Weidman is already scheduled for Dec 6 and is co-headlined with Pettis v Melendez which is an insane 1-2.


PuertoRican   United States. Sep 01 2014 22:29. Posts 13030

Rockhold is in the mix. He'd probably face Mousasi, if Mousasi beat Jacare. If Jacare beats Mousasi, Rockhold will most likely fight Machida next.

Rekrul is a newb 

 
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