https://www.liquidpoker.net/


LP international Poland    Contact            Users: 185 Active, 0 Logged in - Time: 05:08

Fantasy Football 2014 (Or just Am. Football '14?)

New to LiquidPoker? Register here for free!
Forum Index > General
 1 
  2 
  3 
  4 
  > 
  Last 
  All 
RiKD    United States. Aug 28 2014 18:35. Posts 8431

What are the sharps thinking this year?

What's your draft board looking like?

Keepers?

Sleepers?

Jeepers Creepers.

Facebook Twitter

TimDawg    United States. Aug 29 2014 02:37. Posts 10197







I'm in two leagues right now. One with friends and another is a $100 Yahoo Public League. Might join one more. Here's my drafts in both...

The first league above is a QB driven league. The point system is retarded (6pts/TD for QB) & (1pt per 20 yds thrown). So by the time I picked at 9, all three of the top QB's were gone. I decided to go WR heavy early on and just load up on depth in the later rounds at other positions. I can't believe looking back, that I got Kelvin Benjamin in the 15th. His ADP currently iirc is something like the 10th round now and climbing. I think it might've been wise to pass on Spiller in the 4th round, go WR and then try and get a Reggie Bush/Ben Tate/Gerhart in the 5th.

The second league is just standard scoring in Yahoo. I kind've got sucked in to taking Jimmy Graham in the 1st (which I generally don't like to do). I was really happy taking Montee Ball in the 2nd as well. I'm a big believer in him having a huge year with Peyton and that offense. Cobb in the 3rd was good. I really think it's important to have at least 1 top tier WR on your team. Top tier in my opinion is like Dez, Calvin, AJ Green, Julio, Brandon Marshall, & Jordy. I think Cobb, Jeffery, Antonio Brown are all really close to top tier. Zac Stacy in the 4th is crazy imo. I don't know how he falls there. Other than that, I just gambled on a lot of high ceiling type of players late and hopefully will be able to use one of them to trade for a good WR.

Anyway, waiting for the fantasy master Daut to chime in (Even though I don't think he's playing that many leagues this year)!

online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinballLast edit: 29/08/2014 02:54

TimDawg    United States. Aug 31 2014 16:48. Posts 10197

online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball 

Twisted    Netherlands. Aug 31 2014 17:40. Posts 10422

Oh, sissy rugby, not actual football


RaiNKhAN    United States. Aug 31 2014 19:23. Posts 4080

eagles baby

The biggest Rockets, Sixers, and Grizzlies fan you will ever meet! 

Daut    United States. Sep 01 2014 13:23. Posts 8955

still hungover from weekend, but just gonna list my top 10 rankings for a few positions:

qb: (assuming 4pt passing td)
1a rodgers, 1b peyton, 1c brees (all basically the same, but favor slightly in that order), 4 luck, 5 foles, 6 brady, 7 stafford, 8 cam, 9 ryan, 10 kaepernick, 11 wilson, 12 romo. most sites have brady much lower, dont really get it.

rb: (assuming no PPR)
1a mccoy, 1b charles (charles > mccoy in ppr), 3 AP, 4 forte (forte > ap in ppr), 5 lacy, 6 ball, 7 marshawn, 8 martin, 9 gio, 10 demarco, 11 arian, 12 stacy

WR:
1. calvin, 2. demaryius, 3 julio, 4. dez, 5. aj, 6. marshall, 7. jordy, 8. antonio, 9. cobb, 10. alshon.

gonna go off on a little tangent here. basically i think julio and dez are just gonna put up huge numbers. aj is super consistent and a clear top 5 guy, but hes not the type of guy who will have a 12 catch 210 yard 2 td game almost ever while the other guys at the top will throw up monster games occasionally. hes going to basically go 7/90/1 a ton of games. and really, consistency matters. id rather have a guy who scores 15 points every single game than a guy who scores 4/30 alternating weeks. but still, its not like the other guys i listed will put up dud games, they just wont be as consistent. julio is undervalued, just look at how he did last year before injury, hes unreal.

TE:
1. jimmy, 2a gronk 2b julius 4 cameron, who cares after that

dont like most of the rankings ive seen. think julio needs to be a lot higher in all of them, think arian is usually too low or too high, and think most of the QB rankings are slightly off. im high on some other guys (i.e. crabtree, mike evans, sanders), low on some other guys, but whatever, after that is usually personal preference. just make sure to have a lot of RB/WR with potential to break out

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 01/09/2014 13:26

soberstone   United States. Sep 01 2014 23:24. Posts 2662

It's all about getting a top tier QB and TE, and then just getting solid WR/RB with a lot of depth and value at those spots while everyone who waited on those other spots make their runs. It's worked for me the last couple years.

Also, Lacy is gonna be a beast this year but obviously with my strategy, I haven't ended up with him in either of my leagues.

I ended up with Peyton and Jimmy in both my leagues and am still fairly stacked at receiver - Antonio Brown/Keenan Allen/TY Hilton/Dwayne Bowe/Dobson , and feel fine at RB while it is my weakest spot with combos like Gore/Vereen/Hyde/CJ2k

Edit: This strategy works with late first round picks and I'm in 12 team leagues fwiw. Obviously if you get #1 or 2 overall you should prolly roll the dice and go RB.

 Last edit: 01/09/2014 23:25

Daut    United States. Sep 01 2014 23:43. Posts 8955


  On September 01 2014 22:24 soberstone wrote:
It's all about getting a top tier QB and TE, and then just getting solid WR/RB with a lot of depth and value at those spots while everyone who waited on those other spots make their runs. It's worked for me the last couple years.

Also, Lacy is gonna be a beast this year but obviously with my strategy, I haven't ended up with him in either of my leagues.

I ended up with Peyton and Jimmy in both my leagues and am still fairly stacked at receiver - Antonio Brown/Keenan Allen/TY Hilton/Dwayne Bowe/Dobson , and feel fine at RB while it is my weakest spot with combos like Gore/Vereen/Hyde/CJ2k

Edit: This strategy works with late first round picks and I'm in 12 team leagues fwiw. Obviously if you get #1 or 2 overall you should prolly roll the dice and go RB.



disagree.

the difference between rodgers/peyton/brees (top 3 guys who you can generally still get late 2nd round in 12 team leagues) and someone like foles (who you can often get in the 6th round) is much smaller than the difference between julio (who you can get late 2nd round) and someone like desean who will usually go before foles.

in a 12 team, no PPR, 1 qb 2 rb 3 WR 1 TE no flex type league that is usually somewhat standard, the draft order SHOULD be:
1. mccoy, 2. charles, 3. AP, 4. forte, 5. calvin, 6. lacy, 7. ball, 8. jimmy graham, 9. marshawn, 10 demaryius. the following WR should ALL go before any QB goes: dez/aj/julio/marshall/jordy, and gio bernard/demarco murray as well. id probably take the QBs after that group of players and right before the doug martin/arian foster/antonio brown/cobb group.

if its a 10 team league, things change slightly since there is less demand for RB early. but still, drafting a QB in R1 is a mistake. just a simple thought experiment:

assume you have the #9 pick in a 12 team draft.
if you go RB first, your first 6 rounds will likely look like this: marshawn, julio, stacy, keenan, garcon, foles.
if you go QB first, your first 5 rounds will likely look like this: rodgers, gio, stacy, keenan, garcon, desean.

so basically, foles+marshawn+julio, or rodgers+gio+desean. i personally dont think its even close, rodgers-foles is maybe 2pts/game, marshawn-gio is like 1 point a game, julio-desean is like 2.5 points/game. i think you are making a big mistake drafting a QB that early.

TE is another story. graham needs to go early cause of how big a difference there is between him and everyone else. gronk is kinda random in both where he goes and how he will do. but i rank him the same as julius (due to peyton) and think they should both go mid-late 3rd.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

soberstone   United States. Sep 02 2014 20:25. Posts 2662


  On September 01 2014 22:43 Daut wrote:
Show nested quote +



disagree.

the difference between rodgers/peyton/brees (top 3 guys who you can generally still get late 2nd round in 12 team leagues) and someone like foles (who you can often get in the 6th round) is much smaller than the difference between julio (who you can get late 2nd round) and someone like desean who will usually go before foles.

in a 12 team, no PPR, 1 qb 2 rb 3 WR 1 TE no flex type league that is usually somewhat standard, the draft order SHOULD be:
1. mccoy, 2. charles, 3. AP, 4. forte, 5. calvin, 6. lacy, 7. ball, 8. jimmy graham, 9. marshawn, 10 demaryius. the following WR should ALL go before any QB goes: dez/aj/julio/marshall/jordy, and gio bernard/demarco murray as well. id probably take the QBs after that group of players and right before the doug martin/arian foster/antonio brown/cobb group.

if its a 10 team league, things change slightly since there is less demand for RB early. but still, drafting a QB in R1 is a mistake. just a simple thought experiment:

assume you have the #9 pick in a 12 team draft.
if you go RB first, your first 6 rounds will likely look like this: marshawn, julio, stacy, keenan, garcon, foles.
if you go QB first, your first 5 rounds will likely look like this: rodgers, gio, stacy, keenan, garcon, desean.

so basically, foles+marshawn+julio, or rodgers+gio+desean. i personally dont think its even close, rodgers-foles is maybe 2pts/game, marshawn-gio is like 1 point a game, julio-desean is like 2.5 points/game. i think you are making a big mistake drafting a QB that early.

TE is another story. graham needs to go early cause of how big a difference there is between him and everyone else. gronk is kinda random in both where he goes and how he will do. but i rank him the same as julius (due to peyton) and think they should both go mid-late 3rd.


Your analogy assumes Foles' last season wasn't an anomaly or that it was somehow predictable, which it probably was an anomaly - as evidenced but certainly not proven - by preseason, and good luck picking out the 'Foles' of 2014. You have a MUCH better chance at swooping an RB or WR later that ends up tier 1.

Secondly, and not quite as importantly, you aren't taking consistency and risk into consideration in making your assessment of the difference between Jones and Deshawn. Receivers and RB's bust or get hurt far more than QB's. Of course there are exceptions.

A more accurate analogy would have been Brees/Manning/Rodgers vs Rivers/Kaepernick/Romo/ or Foles if you are gonna be honest and assume he scores a solid 80 fantasy points less than Manning/Brees/Rodgers. That 80 point difference is the same as the 80 point difference between a DeShawn v Julio without the risk and variance.

EDIT: Essentially, your assumption that the average difference between Manning/Brees/Rodgers vs Foles will be 2 ppg is highly improbable in my opinion, and I guess that's where we will fundamentally disagree.

 Last edit: 02/09/2014 20:32

soberstone   United States. Sep 02 2014 20:28. Posts 2662

And Gronk is the opposite of random, his PPG and consistency is probably higher than Grahams over the past 3 years. The issue is health and if you plug in a bottom tier starting TE for the games he misses and assume Gronk will play an average of 12 games this season, that still gives you an ENORMOUS advantage at TE than people with an average guy like a Greg Olsen.


TimDawg    United States. Sep 02 2014 20:57. Posts 10197

Your rankings are really interesting Daut. Wish I had seen them before doing all my drafts

I did one other $100 public league:

online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball 

TimDawg    United States. Sep 02 2014 20:58. Posts 10197

Team name is OMA HAAA^^^

online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball 

Daut    United States. Sep 03 2014 03:48. Posts 8955


  On September 02 2014 19:25 soberstone wrote:
Show nested quote +



Your analogy assumes Foles' last season wasn't an anomaly or that it was somehow predictable, which it probably was an anomaly - as evidenced but certainly not proven - by preseason, and good luck picking out the 'Foles' of 2014. You have a MUCH better chance at swooping an RB or WR later that ends up tier 1.

Secondly, and not quite as importantly, you aren't taking consistency and risk into consideration in making your assessment of the difference between Jones and Deshawn. Receivers and RB's bust or get hurt far more than QB's. Of course there are exceptions.

A more accurate analogy would have been Brees/Manning/Rodgers vs Rivers/Kaepernick/Romo/ or Foles if you are gonna be honest and assume he scores a solid 80 fantasy points less than Manning/Brees/Rodgers. That 80 point difference is the same as the 80 point difference between a DeShawn v Julio without the risk and variance.

EDIT: Essentially, your assumption that the average difference between Manning/Brees/Rodgers vs Foles will be 2 ppg is highly improbable in my opinion, and I guess that's where we will fundamentally disagree.




you seem to have a wrong idea where players get drafted.

12 team fairly competitive league i did a few days ago. 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 flex, 1 te, .25ppr

peyton 1.10
brees 2.8
rodgers 2.11
luck 3.1
stafford 5.3
ryan 6.7
foles 6.12
brady 7.4
cam 7.7
romo 8.5
rw3 9.9

romo/cutler/rivers/rg3/kaep all drafted later. rivers specifically in the 12th.

you can get top 12 qbs in very late rounds. unfortunately all the good RB/WR are gone very early. if you take a QB in the mid to late first, you give up the chance to have one of those RB/WR. if you are comparing rodgers to rivers, then you should compare julio to guys like darren mcfadden or jarret boykin. the difference is MASSIVE. desean was drafted 6.5, in front of foles. which is why i compared rodgers/foles and julio/desean.

projected points from football guys for this league:
brees/rodgers/peyton 330-335
luck 315
foles 300
theres a group of qbs 280-290 and a group of qbs 260-270. cam is giving up 50 points to the top guys and goes in the 7th.
calvin: 255
demaryius: 235.7
dez/aj: 223
julio/marshall/jordy 212-220
desean: 157
colston (who went before cam): 139.
sandersalso went before cam): 152. 60+ point drop for a player drafted earlier vs 50 point drop for QB. and we are comparing julio (who usually goes mid 2nd) to top qbs, we arent even comparing guys who go in the 5th-10th spots where you suggested drafting peyton/rodgers/brees



i think taking one of the top QBs immediately after the following group of players is completely fine: mccoy/charles/AP/forte/calvin/lacy/marshawn/graham/demaryius/dez/montee ball/julio/aj green/gio bernard. so say #15 pick i think its ok. i personally would prefer to also have demarco/doug martin/marshall/jordy in front of those players in most leagues because of where i can usually get foles/brady/cam/etc. but i think taking a QB in the 1st is usually a big error and you give up players that are too strong to pass on when you can get solid qbs very late.

however, there are some reasons you may want to draft QBs earlier. 2 QB leagues, 6 pt passing tds, bonuses for 300 yard games and if your league overvalues QB as a whole, you may want to draft them earlier. for instance, i have one league with girls where i know QBs will go early, so i should reach for the top 3 before pick 15 because i will be able to get quality running backs later than i should in other leagues. and another league gives a decent sized bonus for 300 yard passing games, so peyton's value goes WAY up and now i should reach for him. but in the standard leagues with 1 qb, i think you can get solid stuff much later, so dont reach too high



gronk i say high variance specifically because of the injuries. between his forearm, back, knees, and whatever else hes dealt with, its almost hard to imagine him being around for the fantasy playoffs. if he plays a whole season, i think hes better than jimmy. but i think hes likely to miss games, may miss half the season or more, and julius over 16 games should do about as well as gronk will over 14 games, so id rather wait til the 3rd and try for julius instead. im basically treating gronk exactly how im treating arian foster this year. if i get him in the 3rd im pretty happy, if he goes before that, whatever, someone else can deal with the injuries and take on higher variance. and i have no problems taking the middle tier TE like reed or pitta, in the 8th/9th rounds when there are no starting running backs or top 20 receivers left. BUT, if gronk does work out for you for 16 games, which he should about 50% of the time id guess, and you took him say mid 2nd or later, your team will probably crush. but i think taking a guy like demarco instead is fine and still leaves you in a good position quite often. basically, i dont think its a mistake to do this, its just a bit higher variance than taking an RB early IMO

as for your point about RB that you draft early possibly getting injured, this is true. but the way i look at it is, if your RB doesnt get injured your team is well ahead of everyone elses. in the 20-30% chance that he does, you probably miss the playoffs. if you draft a QB in the 5-10 range you are lowering your overall ceiling by quite a bit and trying to take a low variance route which will probably result in a 7-6 type team. its aiming for mediocrity.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 03/09/2014 04:01

RaiNKhAN    United States. Sep 03 2014 06:59. Posts 4080

in a 16 player league and i was #12 in draft order so i went with these in the following order: lynch, rodgers, michael floyd, maclin (not sure if it was floyd first or maclin)

im awful at fantasy but gogogogo eagles this year

The biggest Rockets, Sixers, and Grizzlies fan you will ever meet! 

Daut    United States. Sep 03 2014 14:49. Posts 8955


  On September 03 2014 05:59 RaiNKhAN wrote:
in a 16 player league and i was #12 in draft order so i went with these in the following order: lynch, rodgers, michael floyd, maclin (not sure if it was floyd first or maclin)

im awful at fantasy but gogogogo eagles this year



first 2 rounds solid, problem is, 16 man league where you usually start 2 RB they are very scarce (there are like 30 good ones and then huge dropoffs after) so you kinda want to grab as many as you can early.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

TimDawg    United States. Sep 03 2014 17:24. Posts 10197

Give me some draft grades when you get a chance Daut

online bob is actually a pretty smart person, not at all like the creepy fucker that sits in the sofa telling me he does nasty shit to me when im asleep - pinball 

Daut    United States. Sep 04 2014 16:06. Posts 8955


  On September 02 2014 19:57 TimDawg wrote:
Your rankings are really interesting Daut. Wish I had seen them before doing all my drafts

I did one other $100 public league:




decent draft here. since yahoo publics are 10 team with 3 WR and no flex, i often avoid taking an RB at the wheel positions. last year i liked going calvin/jimmy. here dez/aj were both gone, so id probably take julio instead of peyton, but what you did is fine. 10 team with no flex means RB are available later, no pressure to grab early. your later rounds are ok, with exception of welker. even before the amphetamine news, i thought he was more like a 10th rounder.

your other 2 drafts look great. only exception being lamar miller sucks. wouldnt take him before round 10. your team with jimmy is amazing, but it could have been better if you didnt take a defense too early.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 04/09/2014 16:08

thewh00sel    United States. Sep 05 2014 11:25. Posts 2734

Couple guys I'm high on/targeted this year are:

QB
Russel Wilson. Can get him quite late and I think he will put up higher than projected numbers consistently this year. Even in last night's game he put up a good number even after missing a couple TD pass opportunities and he nearly rushed for a TD as well.

WR
Julian Edelman. I have him as a top 20 WR this year. Esp in half ppr or ppr hes going to get a million grabs.

Cordarelle Patterson. I like him a lot. I also like that both of these guys are punt returners. Some bonus upside.

TE
Kyle Rudolph. I think he has a lot of value for where you can get him. I dont like Cameron or Thomas and gronk as early as they go so I'm targeting Rudolph in all leagues. If I dont get him I'm settling for Zach ertz later on.

Everywhere else I like Dauts posts.

A government is the most dangerous threat to man’s rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

Daut    United States. Sep 05 2014 17:39. Posts 8955


  On September 05 2014 10:25 thewh00sel wrote:
Couple guys I'm high on/targeted this year are:

QB
Russel Wilson. Can get him quite late and I think he will put up higher than projected numbers consistently this year. Even in last night's game he put up a good number even after missing a couple TD pass opportunities and he nearly rushed for a TD as well.

WR
Julian Edelman. I have him as a top 20 WR this year. Esp in half ppr or ppr hes going to get a million grabs.

Cordarelle Patterson. I like him a lot. I also like that both of these guys are punt returners. Some bonus upside.

TE
Kyle Rudolph. I think he has a lot of value for where you can get him. I dont like Cameron or Thomas and gronk as early as they go so I'm targeting Rudolph in all leagues. If I dont get him I'm settling for Zach ertz later on.

Everywhere else I like Dauts posts.



Wilson is a better real life player than fantasy player. In terms of trade values, I think luck/rodgers/wilson are all about equal. What I mean by this is that if I had any other player in the league, I would trade him for wilson. JJ Watt, calvin johnson, drew brees, doesnt matter, wilson is more valuable over the next 10 years. Most people think luck/rodgers are worth more, and its hard to disagree, but i think the gap is minimal at best.

The issue with his fantasy production is that he doesnt run for many TD (lynch is better suited for goal line), he doesnt have great weapons at receiver (outside of harvin they are well below average, and percy gets a lot of his points from returns/rushes). Despite that, I still think hes roughly equal to the guys in the 7-12 range: ryan, cam, kaep, romo, etc. they all have pros and cons, but i think hes pretty clearly below the top 6 fantasy wise.


agree on edelman/patterson. rudolph you may be right, but I dont have much of an opinion on the 8-13 tight ends. Id rather have reed/pitta/vernon over anyone outside the graham/gronk/julius/cameron group, and after that, i dont care too much who i get in the witten, olsen, ertz, rudolph, bennett, etc group of guys. they all seem about equal to me. if you have a good reason to like rudolph youre probably right. i just grab whoever is left of that group in late rounds after i take RB/WR i want first.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

Daut    United States. Sep 06 2014 04:54. Posts 8955

i grabbed josh gordon in 2 leagues just in case the NFL changes their drug policy and lets him play this season. Your last roster spot is generally not going to amount to much, and if its even 5% he ends up playing 12 games its well worth the investment.

ill take a 5% chance of having a top 3 WR for 12 games over having some terrible teams #3 wideout who wont put up any numbers.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 06/09/2014 05:00

 
 1 
  2 
  3 
  4 
  > 
  Last 
  All 



Poker Streams

















Copyright © 2024. LiquidPoker.net All Rights Reserved
Contact Advertise Sitemap