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U.S Open 2014 Tennis

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urasofty   Canada. Sep 07 2014 12:10. Posts 81

Naysayers were questioning Kei's fitness before the US Open started. Then he went 5 sets vs Raonic and Wawrinka. He's also 9-3 career in 5 setters. He will be fine.


cariadon   Estonia. Sep 07 2014 12:23. Posts 4019


  On September 07 2014 00:39 Daut wrote:
Show nested quote +



Federer is great at the net, but getting there is the problem. His approach shots were terrible during the last few rounds. He can serve and volley well in general, but failed against cilic. 6'6 with infinite wingspan to get to every serve and he hit every return perfect all day .


I'd just like Federer to win another slam and even better if he achieves that coming to the net a lot. He's the only guy who can concievably do it at the moment. He has a venomous chip slice, he reads the game well and has great hands. Djokovic is terrible to watch at the net, always prefering the dropshot over other options and terrible position/hands for a No.1 player.

I'd pick Nishikori to win because i like him more. He can create some funky angles and is interesting to watch. Because he lacks a killer serve he finds creative ways to solve points. Just look at Simon... guy is 70kg. Djokovic, Ferrer and Simon are best at absorbing oncoming power and not blinking in highpaced rallies.

How Cilic played is unsustainable even Federer said Cilic was just too good and he felt like he should've had some chances. Cilic blasting winners from every corner of the court. Impossible to get into a rhythm and pick him apart when he is constantly all-in every shot win or lose. It just boils down to serve, return and first shot pretty much. This reminds me how Dimitrov beat Nadal in Wimbledon. Nadal was really pissed in the post match press conference because Dimitrov kept going allin on second serves aswell on clutch points and making them. If someone is feeling like a demigod there is not much you can do.

Overall i'm very happy about how things turned out. If there was Djokovic or Federer in the final he would take all the spotlight. This way whoever wins will be the focus of the story and maybe the early start of a new era or generation of tennis where guys just rip it all day. Brown, Dimitrov, Raonic, Goffin, etc. Lots of up and coming guys with unbelievable sustainability in crazy shots. Also Monfils is playing different in the sense of being more agressiv and arguably moving even better and not so reckless.


Daut    United States. Sep 07 2014 12:49. Posts 8955


  On September 07 2014 11:10 urasofty wrote:
Naysayers were questioning Kei's fitness before the US Open started. Then he went 5 sets vs Raonic and Wawrinka. He's also 9-3 career in 5 setters. He will be fine.



http://tennis.matchstat.com/PlayerInjuries/8806

kei has retired or given his opponents a walkover 18 times. hes 24 years old. cilic has never retired and only given 2 walkovers in his career. and hes older.
notable players retire/walkover numbers:
federer 2
djokovic 13 (but none since 2011)
murray 7
nadal 9
lleyton hewitt 9 (posted cause hes had a long career)

kei has more than any of them, and >=2x most.


not to mention, kei called the trainer multiple times vs raonic, called the trainer vs stan and looked like he couldnt move in the 5th set, looked like he was dying at different points of the 2nd/3rd sets yesterday vs djokovic. no matter how you slice it, the guy's fitness is not up to par. he has lots of heart and fights through it, but he needs to work on his physical toughness and endurance.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 07/09/2014 12:52

cariadon   Estonia. Sep 07 2014 13:16. Posts 4019

Sometimes you go god mode.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3COpP_Kgo0


Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Sep 07 2014 14:14. Posts 9634

Cilic will win it for sure


Mardagg   Germany. Sep 07 2014 15:55. Posts 843

To me Cilic is clearly the favorite.
Nishikori slight favorite for most bookmakers.
Wozniacki to beat Williams...one time!!( got some nice money in on semi finals Nishikori and Cilic+Wozniacki to win the final, combo bet...)


Raidern   Brasil. Sep 07 2014 17:37. Posts 4243

I like thise numbers daut, iirc federer never ret in a match. I think that "2" comes from wo which is impressive since hes been playing since 98 or 99

im a regular at nl5 

Daut    United States. Sep 08 2014 13:54. Posts 8955


  On September 07 2014 16:37 Raidern wrote:
I like thise numbers daut, iirc federer never ret in a match. I think that "2" comes from wo which is impressive since hes been playing since 98 or 99



correct. fed never retired, cilci hasnt either.

now, thats not really an indicator of how someone will perform in the finals, but i do think kei thinks physical pain is worse than it is somehow. and he did retire in a finals a few months ago against nadal after dominating him for 1.5 sets.

i definitely agree that cilic's play is unsustainable. the way he played vs fed i think he would have been a favorite over anyone in history. served high percentage, returned every ball perfectly, hit winners against every mediocre approach shot. just really cant do better than that.

even if his play deteriorates a little, i still think he should be favored. i still think kei is the better player until cilic proves he can do this for a longer period of time, but if the last few rounds are an indicator im making cilic favorite. if this match were happening in 4 months id say kei -150.


definitely not going to bet it. its a case where all of the info conflicts:
-kei beat a somewhat similar player in raonic who is higher ranked
-kei has won 5 of their last 6 meetings
-cilic is the fitter man with an easier road
-cilic is currently playing the better tennis

not sure what factors outweigh the others. really interested to see the match today. would not be surprised by almost any outcome: kei winning in 3, cilic winning in 3, kei winning in 5, cilic winning in 5, kei retiring, anything. exciting

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 08/09/2014 13:57

cariadon   Estonia. Sep 08 2014 15:13. Posts 4019

I think the "big game" is mainstream and the idea more easily reinforced by such performances like Cilic displayed in the semi. Playing such a big game is vulnerable to the same sort of fragility N. N. Taleb is preaching. It applies to most models and basically means that if you modify the conditions e.g. wind, rain, slower playing conditions, perhaps a rain delay, some randomness then Nishikori should be favoured in such situations. Nadal, Djokovic, Murray all excel at being really consistent while playing near their limits. Very consistent players who occasionally get stunned by hard hitters. The way Federer was moving, playing and the attitude after the first set i was sure he would get and take his chances. When Federer is "on" he can do whatever he wants but he has to get in the right mindset for this to happen.

I still favor Nishikori, at the end of the day the nerves of the finals will get to Cilic and he will beat himself. Nishikori es less vulnerable to going 0:1 or 1:2 down in sets i feel. We'll see. Hopefully it will atleast be an interesting mach that goes 4 or 5 sets.


traxamillion   United States. Sep 08 2014 15:25. Posts 10468

any value in Monfils at 100:1 to win the Australian Open?

The books seem to be big on Kyrgios. Looks like they have him as a top 10 player already


n0rthf4ce    United States. Sep 08 2014 15:28. Posts 8119

anyone want to make a wager? ill give u cilic at +110 and i'll take nishikori at -110 for any amount. plz pm me if ur interested.

www.cardrunners.com 

cariadon   Estonia. Sep 08 2014 16:01. Posts 4019

Kyrgios is young and hasn't established himself. Monfils to win Australian Open 100:1 pfft, i just love the man and i'd say he is good for it. Predicting the winner of Australian and US Open is very hard and a rare event i don't really see any monetary value in making such bets. Wimbledon and Roland Garros much easier.


traxamillion   United States. Sep 08 2014 17:31. Posts 10468

Cilic looking strong (prob roid like Daut said) and seems to have shook off the nerves faster


cariadon   Estonia. Sep 08 2014 18:14. Posts 4019

I know testing for tennis players is piss poor but how can one tell, or prophecise about whether someone is taking roids. What are the clues? Besides playing like a madman, i went and watched Puerta in 2005 RG finals.


traxamillion   United States. Sep 08 2014 18:30. Posts 10468

Well this guy actually tested positive for a banned stimulant last year


Daut    United States. Sep 08 2014 18:30. Posts 8955


  On September 08 2014 17:14 cariadon wrote:
I know testing for tennis players is piss poor but how can one tell, or prophecise about whether someone is taking roids. What are the clues? Besides playing like a madman, i went and watched Puerta in 2005 RG finals.



here are my reasons:
-he has been caught before
-in his match with simon he was the fresher player in set 5. simon is the kind of guy who never tires
-he is getting stronger as the tournament goes

if i play 2 sets of tennis my body hurts for days. i work out every day, play sports, and am in good shape, but i am seriously beaten up by a few sets playing against guys who suck. these guys are playing intense 3-5 sets every other day along with 1-2 hour practice sessions each day. i just dont see how a non roiding human makes it through 14 days of that without his body breaking down. and hes actually getting stronger....

i would guess hes taking some form of testosterone and has very high T levels which allows for really quick recovery, increased speed/strength and great endurance.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 08/09/2014 18:32

traxamillion   United States. Sep 08 2014 18:30. Posts 10468

Also fake injuries to run their cycles


traxamillion   United States. Sep 08 2014 18:43. Posts 10468

Guys playing like he shot straight testosterone right before the match


Daut    United States. Sep 08 2014 19:02. Posts 8955

imagine we had really basic assumptions:
-cilic will win 75% of his service points
-kei will win 65% of his service points

i suspect if we simulated a match 10000 times based on those assumptions cilic would win >80%. this disparity in serving ability is the reason why a guy like raonic is top 10. pretty average player overall, but wins a super high % of his service points, so he wins lots of matches.

of course there are other factors at play: tilt, tightening up, one player getting tired, serving more inaccurately than usual, etc. but given what we knew going into this match from the last 4-5 days, i think cilic probably should have been at least -250. we just couldnt believe that it was sustainable play and that kei had an edge due to their matches in the past

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, DautLast edit: 08/09/2014 19:03

traxamillion   United States. Sep 08 2014 19:07. Posts 10468

That sounds spot on. Books were way off


 
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