UFC FN 49: Henderson vs. dos Anjos

On August 20 2014 04:31 Nazgul wrote: Don't you think that if his guillotine and back-taking were on a whole other level he would have finished a couple guys in the UFC with it? He's certainly not going to start it now that he fights one of the better BJJ guys he's faced. I'm with PR that Henderson has very little over him except for activity and cardio. Both of which will contribute hugely to pulling out the win by decision.

Do you pay attention to level of competition? If he was righting the Kamal Sholorouses (RDA's only sub finish in years) I'm quite sure it plays out the same way. I don't think he get's ragdolled the way RDA with Khabib if he ever gets a chance to fight him.

We'll see Saturday, if the fight's even close I will concede that I was dead wrong.

Not to mention he guillotined Cerrone and Varner in the WEC when he was still developing, and now, the first not top-5 guy he faces since 2011 and a very tough opponent in Rustam, and he gets a finish. And are you forgetting the absolute shitting he put on Nate Diaz?

What has RDA done, beat an off-night Donald Cerrone, a guy who Benson finished when he was still developing (and won a very close decision against when he was even younger)

If you want to talk about resumes, there isn't even a comparison.

On August 20 2014 19:18 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 19 2014 22:38 soberstone wrote: I'd love for you to lay out a scenario where he wins. He's not going to finish Benson and he's not to going decision him. That leaves zero options in my mind. I had no clue betting MMA was that simple. Determine person A can't finish person B and that he won't win a decision either and blammo...zero options. Dealing in absolutes while micro betting. Good stuff.

I realize how dumb my statement came across as... lol.

With that said, when looking at a fight, I'm sure we all try and play out the scenarios which is of course impossible to do, but we all try nonetheless (or atleast I do). Stylistically, this is a terrible fight for RDA. Usually in a 3:1 dog type of fight the underdog has some area that he can feasibly beat the other guy in or there are unknowns that move the odds towards the middle, and I just don't see it here. Both guys are proven commodities. Benson isn't going to sit in the pocket and trade hands with RDA which is the only place RDA has any legitimate edge.

Man Bendo's torso is so... smooth. No homo.

As predicted, you can get RDA at as high as +325 on sportsbook so have fun with that

Jordan Mein's father was arrested last night. He was going to corner Jordan as he always does but, he's being accused of sexually assaulting a housekeeper at the hotel where UFC had them staying.

His dad has cornered him for most of his fights and won't have his voice in his corner during this one.

Looks like Reis vs. Sanchez is the first fight, which is on Fight Pass. There's only 1 fight being shown on Fight Pass, so I'll skip it and wait for the other prelims to start in 25 minutes on Fox Sports 2.

----------

Prelims: http://ifirstrowus.eu/watch/277353/1/...fc-fight-night-49:-preliminaries.html

Killa B with the first omoplata in UFC history.

RDA +333 $10
RDA +405 $10
RDA +445 $20

Thanks God.

I guess Jesus was preoccupied tonight.

Just came on here to eat crow and say I'm an idiot. Early stoppage aside, I thought Benson would dominate and he got lit up.

On August 24 2014 00:06 soberstone wrote: Just came on here to eat crow and say I'm an idiot. Early stoppage aside, I thought Benson would dominate and he got lit up.

No worries, I'm wrong on bets all the time.

Regarding the fight, it was much closer than what the average person thought, especially the bookies, as they were offering RDA at +460 right before the match. The fight was supposed to go the distance with the first 3 rounds being close, but Henderson taking over in rounds 4 and 5 with superior cardio. The thing is, RDA never really gases out in his fights, his output just slows down in the 3rd round for whatever reason, but it's not like he's sluggish or anything.

Anyway, I was surprised to see it go down like this. I bet 4 units on RDA with amazing odds pre-fight, and I was expecting to hedge on my bets during the first 3 rounds, but it obviously never got that far and I luckily ended up cashing a lot on RDA.

UFC 177 is next weekend, so there's plenty of gamble coming our way.

Ended up with a small $20 bet on dos Anjos at +360. Sadly Carmont lost to Leites

Henderson actually looked pretty fast himself but dos Anjos is a beast. I like refs who take into account specific fighters' recovery speeds, especially when it comes to main events. Henderson can have a little longer than most.

Thankfully dos Anjos thanked Jesus now that Henderson couldn't.

Event Event Date Date of Bet Description Bet Type Amount Moneyline Win/Loss Net

UFC FN 48 23 Aug 14 17 Aug 14 Woodley > Kim SU $50.00 -120 W 41.57
UFC FN 48 23 Aug 14 22 Aug 14 Le > Bisping SU $25.00 265 L 25.00
UFC FN 49 23 Aug 14 22 Aug 14 Benson by Submission Prop $10.00 915 L -10.00
UFC FN 48/49 23 Aug 14 17 Aug 14 Woodley + Ben Hendo PL $50.00 140 L -50.00
UFC FN 49 23 Aug 14 17 Aug 14 Laites > Carmont SU $25.00 135 W 33.75
UFC 49 23 Aug 14 23 Aug 14 Mein via TKO Prop $25.00 115 W 25.00

Profit $16.00, could been so much more if I wasn't so wrong on Benson.

Laites is clearly on TRT right now and until he pisses hot hell probably hold some value in these odds. He had like zero KO's and now that he is older he is knocking people out who have good chins left and right now. Pretty obvious stuff. It's hard to say what percentage of fighters are on 'something' but when they get the old Vitor Belfort resurgence, my eyebrows raise and since I'm not a court of law, it's guilty until proven innocent because it's my money.

MMA is so fucking high variance. RDA knocking out Bendo in the first round. I mean WTF.

It was literally the perfect fighting performance by RDA. Took the center because while Benson normally does this, he set the pace knowing Benson wouldn't want to trade in the pocket with him (smart on Benson's part). Used well-timed body kicks to nullify the range advantage I thought Benson would enjoy. Knew Benson would possibly get impatient once he wasn't immediately winning or pushing the pace and perfectly timed knee when Benson shot for td/scramble. Benson does have the tendency to keep his chin up when getting up from scrambles or breaking the clinch and RDA laid on the sick left to KO him at the perfect time.

Just brilliant, I really didn't think he had that kind of power in his kicks (once he landed the first body kick I already had the feeling my assessment of this fight was dead wrong and I had under-estimated RDA) or the kind of aggression to go for the flying knee instead of underhooks/sprawl - that was a key moment in the fight because if he just does the normal counter-wrestling it's a totally different fight.

All that said if you think that was a good stoppage I hate you. Main event, durable fighters (not that it really should matter but it does as a fan), and he flash-Ko's Benson, missed two follow-up strikes, and Big Dan jumps on Bendo when hes about to POSSIBLY scramble away.

There is definitely a chance, admittedly a small one, the fight ends up going 5 like we all thought if the normal amount of time was allotted for RDA to get a real finish.

Jesus loves RDA more than Benson.

On August 24 2014 23:21 JonnyCosMo wrote: Jesus loves RDA more than Benson.