UFC FN 49: Henderson vs. dos Anjos

Date: Saturday, August 23rd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:30 LP.net / 4:30pm PST / 7:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Benson Henderson (21-3) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (21-7) (Lightweight)
Mike Pyle (26-9-1) vs. Jordan Mein (28-9) (Welterweight)
Francis Carmont (22-9) vs. Thales Leites (23-4) (Middleweight)
Max Holloway (9-3) vs. Clay Collard (13-4) (Featherweight)
James Vick (5-0) vs. Walmir Lazaro (12-2) (Lightweight)
Chas Skelly (11-1) vs. Tom Niinimaki (21-6-1) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)

Neil Magny (11-3) vs. Alex Garcia (12-1) (Welterweight)
Beneil Dariush (7-1) vs. Tony Martin (8-1) (Lightweight)
Aaron Phillips (5-1) vs. Matt Hobar (8-2) (Bantamweight)
Ben Saunders (16-6-2) vs. Chris Heatherly (8-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Wilson Reis (17-5) vs. Joby Sanchez (6-0) (Flyweight)

Other

- Jordan Mein was expected to face Thiago Alves at the event. However Alves pulled out of the bout with an injury and was replaced by Brandon Thatch. Subsequently, Thatch also pulled out of the bout with Mein citing a toe injury. Mein is now expected to face Mike Pyle at the event, as Pyle's scheduled opponent Demian Maia, also pulled out of their bout with an injury.
- As a result of the cancellation of UFC 176, bouts between Beneil Dariush vs. Tony Martin, James Vick vs. Walmir Lazaro and Matt Dwyer vs. Alex Garcia were rescheduled for this event. However, Dwyer was removed from his bout with Garcia and replaced by Neil Magny.
- Ernest Chavez was expected to face Mirsad Bektic at the event. However, Chavez was forced out of the bout with an injury and was replaced by Max Holloway. In turn, Bektic pulled out of the bout in the week leading up to the event and was replaced by promotional newcomer Clay Collard.
- Tim Elliott was expected to face Wilson Reis at the event. However, Elliott pulled out of the bout in the days leading up to the event. Reis will now face promotional newcomer Joby Sanchez.

First thoughts:


• Henderson > RDA (I'm betting RDA at +250 or better. This fight is really close on paper, Henderson has the better output in the later rounds.)
• Mein > Pyle
• Carmont > Leites
• Holloway > Collard
• Vick vs. Lazaro (dunno yet)
• Skelly > Niinimaki
• Magny vs. Garcia (dunno yet)
• Dariush vs. Martin (dunno yet, leaning toward Martin)
• Phillips vs. Hobar (dunno yet)
• Saunders > Heatherly
• Reis > Sanchez

So pissed the other Holloway fight got cancelled. He was at like a pickem or even slight dog vs Bektic which was greats odds on Holloway.

I think Benson is a lock vs RDA, he's better at everything by atleast a tier or 2.

Mein vs Pyle is a great matchup, I pick Mein too but won't touch the fight, the odds are pretty dead-on IMO.

Might throw a small bet on Leites if he goes to like +150 - its gonna be a shitty striking match and Leites has more KO power.

No thoughts yet on the rest.

On August 19 2014 21:25 soberstone wrote: So pissed the other Holloway fight got cancelled. He was at like a pickem or even slight dog vs Bektic which was greats odds on Holloway. I think Benson is a lock vs RDA, he's better at everything by atleast a tier or 2. Mein vs Pyle is a great matchup, I pick Mein too but won't touch the fight, the odds are pretty dead-on IMO. Might throw a small bet on Leites if he goes to like +150 - its gonna be a shitty striking match and Leites has more KO power. No thoughts yet on the rest.

What area is Benson Henderson a tier or two above RDA in?

BJJ? No.
Wrestling? Benson is better, but RDA's defensive is really good, unless he's facing Nurmagomedov.
Striking? Benson has better kicks, but he doesn't have the better hands.

It's extremely unlikely that Henderson will finish RDA, without an injury of course. The fight is pretty close, the only clear advantage Henderson has is that this if a 5-round fight and he's used to that many rounds by now, while RDA's output lessens during the 3rd round.

MMA BJJ? I'd argue he's better. His guillotine and back-taking, along with scrambling and top game control are on a whole other level. That Pettis armbar is the exception, not the rule - that was basically submission via body kicks. Both have tremendous defense.

I can't think of a scenario where RJD wins this in a 5 round fight. Benson has an iron chin and probably will never even let RJD get anywhere near him with his hands. He's far more athletic and has better wrestling, he's going to dictate where the fight takes place.

Cardio goes to Benson, he can go 5 hard without even breaking a sweat.

If you are picking RJD at over +250, which trust me, wait until the fight, he'll probably be at around +280, I'd love for you to lay out a scenario where he wins. He's not going to finish Benson and he's not to going decision him. That leaves zero options in my mind.

Your injury asterisk ofcourse applies to me as well.

I'd be shocked if RJD takes more than 1 round if it goes to a decision, and would not at all be surprised if he gets choked out in the 3rd - 5th.

Don't you think that if his guillotine and back-taking were on a whole other level he would have finished a couple guys in the UFC with it? He's certainly not going to start it now that he fights one of the better BJJ guys he's faced. I'm with PR that Henderson has very little over him except for activity and cardio. Both of which will contribute hugely to pulling out the win by decision.

henderson > rda
leites > carmont
holloway > collard
niinimaki > skelly

On August 20 2014 04:31 Nazgul wrote: Don't you think that if his guillotine and back-taking were on a whole other level he would have finished a couple guys in the UFC with it? He's certainly not going to start it now that he fights one of the better BJJ guys he's faced. I'm with PR that Henderson has very little over him except for activity and cardio. Both of which will contribute hugely to pulling out the win by decision.

Clinch game and size. I expect Bendo to have RDA on the fence a pretty decent amount. Also their kicks are pretty even but Bendo's are much harder.

Though I think it'll be very close, Bendo will probably win via magic judge influence.

On August 19 2014 22:38 soberstone wrote: I'd love for you to lay out a scenario where he wins. He's not going to finish Benson and he's not to going decision him. That leaves zero options in my mind.

I had no clue betting MMA was that simple. Determine person A can't finish person B and that he won't win a decision either and blammo...zero options. Dealing in absolutes while micro betting. Good stuff.

I'd say Benson here at 3:1 is still good though. And I usually bet against him. But part of it may be that I'm not completely familiar with RDA besides his fight with Cerrone and Khabib. Don't see anything special finishing wise from RDA (Benson's control and wrestling on the ground is obviously quite good) to threaten and as everyone's said, activity in a 5 round fight is just always going to favor Benson. Don't think their kicks are even either. Benson's are a lot more effective from what I've seen. Although like always, I'm sure Benson will have the the disadvantage in hands stand up. Much like he would vs a 14 year old amateur boxer.

Random silly thing is that Benson seems to have a pretty big chip on his shoulder recently with how fans/media have trashed him since he lost the title...perception of how he gets gift decisions...not exciting etc etc. His demeanor after finishing his last fight finally was like a serious 'fuck all ya'll' kind of thing which isn't like him. Can't help but think this helps him.

The 'magic judge influence' stuff...I don't even think his sample size is anything to even judge it. Totally get why Benson himself is mad about that. Just a couple instances of the benefit of doubt going his way in spotlight showcases which makes people think it's a travesty over 20 years or something. I bet on Gilbert in his fight against Benson. Don't think people understand that a fight can be 'close' and fairly 'definitive' at the same time based on judging 5 singular rounds. That one was as clear a 3-2 decision as I've seen almost ever...for Benson. Yet since he got that decision vs Edgar in the 2nd fight (His only real gift IMO), everyone piled on him needlessly for edging out Gilbert. Thought he clearly won the first Edgar fight, beat Melendez, edged Thomson (so many people talk about Josh getting his back a couple times in that fight. Do they also know that Josh did that then ran around showboating as if he did real damage and that Benson actually outstruck Josh something like 120 to 40?). Literally leaves the 2nd Edgar fight as the only bad decision with a near toss up being handed his way on the Thomson fight.

On August 20 2014 04:31 Nazgul wrote: Don't you think that if his guillotine and back-taking were on a whole other level he would have finished a couple guys in the UFC with it? He's certainly not going to start it now that he fights one of the better BJJ guys he's faced. I'm with PR that Henderson has very little over him except for activity and cardio. Both of which will contribute hugely to pulling out the win by decision.

Do you pay attention to level of competition? If he was righting the Kamal Sholorouses (RDA's only sub finish in years) I'm quite sure it plays out the same way. I don't think he get's ragdolled the way RDA with Khabib if he ever gets a chance to fight him.

We'll see Saturday, if the fight's even close I will concede that I was dead wrong.

Not to mention he guillotined Cerrone and Varner in the WEC when he was still developing, and now, the first not top-5 guy he faces since 2011 and a very tough opponent in Rustam, and he gets a finish. And are you forgetting the absolute shitting he put on Nate Diaz?

What has RDA done, beat an off-night Donald Cerrone, a guy who Benson finished when he was still developing (and won a very close decision against when he was even younger)

If you want to talk about resumes, there isn't even a comparison.

On August 20 2014 19:18 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 19 2014 22:38 soberstone wrote: I'd love for you to lay out a scenario where he wins. He's not going to finish Benson and he's not to going decision him. That leaves zero options in my mind. I had no clue betting MMA was that simple. Determine person A can't finish person B and that he won't win a decision either and blammo...zero options. Dealing in absolutes while micro betting. Good stuff.

I realize how dumb my statement came across as... lol.

With that said, when looking at a fight, I'm sure we all try and play out the scenarios which is of course impossible to do, but we all try nonetheless (or atleast I do). Stylistically, this is a terrible fight for RDA. Usually in a 3:1 dog type of fight the underdog has some area that he can feasibly beat the other guy in or there are unknowns that move the odds towards the middle, and I just don't see it here. Both guys are proven commodities. Benson isn't going to sit in the pocket and trade hands with RDA which is the only place RDA has any legitimate edge.

Man Bendo's torso is so... smooth. No homo.

As predicted, you can get RDA at as high as +325 on sportsbook so have fun with that

Jordan Mein's father was arrested last night. He was going to corner Jordan as he always does but, he's being accused of sexually assaulting a housekeeper at the hotel where UFC had them staying.

His dad has cornered him for most of his fights and won't have his voice in his corner during this one.

Looks like Reis vs. Sanchez is the first fight, which is on Fight Pass. There's only 1 fight being shown on Fight Pass, so I'll skip it and wait for the other prelims to start in 25 minutes on Fox Sports 2.

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Prelims: http://ifirstrowus.eu/watch/277353/1/...fc-fight-night-49:-preliminaries.html

Killa B with the first omoplata in UFC history.

RDA +333 $10
RDA +405 $10
RDA +445 $20

Thanks God.