UFC FN 47: Bader vs. St. Preux

Date: Saturday, August 16th
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 21:00 LP.net / 7:00pm PST / 10:00pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Ryan Bader (17-4) vs. Ovince St. Preux (16-5) (Light Heavyweight)
Gray Maynard (11-3-1) vs. Ross Pearson (15-7) (Lightweight)
Tim Boetsch (17-7) vs. Brad Tavares (12-2) (Middleweight)
Seth Baczynski (19-11) vs. Alan Jouban (9-2) (Welterweight)
Shawn Jordan (15-6) vs. Jack May (7-1) (Heavyweight)
Thiago Tavares (18-5-1) vs. Robbie Peralta (18-4) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)

Jussier Formiga (16-3) vs. Zach Makovsky (18-4) (Flyweight)
Sara McMann (7-1) vs. Lauren Murphy (8-0) (Women's Bantamweight)
Tom Watson (16-7) vs. Sam Alvey (23-5) (Middleweight)
Nolan Ticman (4-1) vs. Frankie Saenz (8-2) (Bantamweight)

Other

- As a result of the cancellation of UFC 176, bouts between Bobby Green vs. Abel Trujillo, Jussier Formiga vs. Zach Makovsky and Gray Maynard vs. Fabrício Camões were rescheduled for this event. Subsequently, Bobby Green was removed from his fight on July 11 in favor of a bout as an injury replacement for Michael Johnson against Josh Thomson at UFC on Fox 12 on July 26, 2014. Trujillo was expected to face Ross Pearson.
- On August 4, Trujillo pulled out of the Pearson bout and was replaced by Gray Maynard. In turn, Maynard's originally scheduled opponent Fabricio Camoes was removed from the card entirely and will be rebooked for a separate event with a new opponent.

First thoughts:

• Bader > OSP
• Pearson > Maynard
• Tavares > Boetsch
• Jouban > Baczynski
• Jordan vs. May (dunno yet)
• Peralta > Tavares (Only betting Peralta at plus odds. Tavares sucks, but can win if Peralta gets taken down.)
• Makovsky > Formiga
• McMann > Murphy (Closer match than the odds suggest. I will probably bet on Murphy if her odds get a little better, cuz she is the better striker with some wrestling background. McMann is an Olympic wrestler with weaker striking.)
• Watson > Alvey (Close fight to pick. I always pick Watson, even though he's been losing in the UFC.)
• Ticman vs. Saenz (Never heard of these guys. This fight was put together with less than 2 weeks notice.)

Tough event to bet on.......................I only think Tavares > Boetsch

Yes, this is a very hard event to bet on, every odds seems to be right. I only think maybe OST at +165 is Ev+.

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Yeah, the lines seem about right for everything. I only have 2 bets so far: Bader -150 and Jouban +120.

I'll end up live betting everything else, unless some lines get better by fight-time.

$75 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/30949...night-47-bader-vs-saint-preux-T-free/

Jack May seems like a good bet, no reason to believe Jordan should be such a big fav at all and May is a solid HW prospect.

My bets:

UFC FN 47 16 Aug 14 15 Aug 14 Tavares + Bascinsky + Bader PL $30.00 +271
UFC FN 47 16 Aug 14 15 Aug 14 Maynard > Pearson SU $30.00 +115
UFC FN 47 16 Aug 14 15 Aug 14 May > Jordan SU $20.00 +177
UFC FN 47 16 Aug 14 15 Aug 14 Formiga > Makovsky SU $20.00 +290
UFC FN 47 16 Aug 14 15 Aug 14 Peralta > Tavares SU $10.00 +155

+ Hailmary

UFC FN 47 16 Aug 14 15 Aug 14 Tavares + Bascinsky + Bader + Alvey PL $10.00 + 642

Edit: My Tavares = Brad, not Thiago

If you are gonna bet Pearson, may as well take him by KO and double your odds because this all comes down to whether Maynard's chin is truly absolutely finished. If it goes the distance, I think Maynard will get atleast a few TD's, land the heavier shots, and win, and obv Pearson isn't going to submit him.

On August 15 2014 15:42 PuertoRican wrote: $75 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/30949...night-47-bader-vs-saint-preux-T-free/

$250 free roll: https://www.kountermove.com/join/3097...night-47-bader-vs-saint-preux-T-free/

how is bader still in the UFC? never seen him do shit vs anybody relevant and gets his ass whoooped against top5 like always

On August 15 2014 23:06 whamm! wrote: how is bader still in the UFC? never seen him do shit vs anybody relevant and gets his ass whoooped against top5 like always

he is not champ material but enoguh to keep a contract, he is 8-4 in the UFC

On August 15 2014 23:06 whamm! wrote: how is bader still in the UFC? never seen him do shit vs anybody relevant and gets his ass whoooped against top5 like always

Another way to look at it is that aside from Tito Ortiz, Bader has only lost to top fighters in the UFC. Bader lost to Jon Jones, he lost to Machida who is a former champ and still a top fighter, and then he lost to Teixeira after wobbling him in the fight; Teixeira also fought for the title and went 5 rounds against Jon Jones. Prior to facing OSP, Bader is 10-4 in the UFC.

If Bader's record says anything, it's that he should be able to beat and probably dominate OSP. OSP is just another hype job that has beaten 3 low level UFC fighters, and the last win was against Jimmo whom broke his arm prior to the arm submission that OSP put on him.

My bets are +190 Boetsch $30 and -170 Jordan $425. It's a small bet on Boetsch luckily but it appears I'm totally off with that one as he is up to +255 now. I wonder if I should put some more on him now even though I was off with the original bet. The Jordan bet I like a lot, no idea why people like May here. Jordan is actually good with a great camp behind him.

On August 16 2014 04:50 Nazgul wrote: My bets are +190 Boetsch $30 and -170 Jordan $425. It's a small bet on Boetsch luckily but it appears I'm totally off with that one as he is up to +255 now. I wonder if I should put some more on him now even though I was off with the original bet. The Jordan bet I like a lot, no idea why people like May here. Jordan is actually good with a great camp behind him.

Some people like May cuz he's much taller + reach advantage, better technical striker, and Jordan's chin has been cracked in his last two fights. May got injured in his UFC debut, so he has a little bit of an excuse.

I'm not touching the fight.

Maynard is up to +170 on 5 dimes. If you have an account, I highly recommend placing a bet. That line is not correct, unless an insider knows something that we don't. Yes, his chin is cracked, we know this, but that's why it was a pickem fight in the first place, this is just ridiculous.

I really like the way Bader looked last fight. He's not on the same level he was before.

Prelims starts in 23 minutes.

http://ifirstrowus.eu/watch/275854/3/...fc-fight-night-47:-preliminaries.html

Man i thought McMan would eventually work her way back up and improve and be a threat to Ronda in the future but pretty damn unimpressive tonight.

On August 16 2014 12:10 soberstone wrote: Maynard is up to +170 on 5 dimes. If you have an account, I highly recommend placing a bet. That line is not correct, unless an insider knows something that we don't. Yes, his chin is cracked, we know this, but that's why it was a pickem fight in the first place, this is just ridiculous.

Yea this line seems nuts to me. Unless Maynards chin is complete glass he should absolutely dominate Pearson.

I'm a MMA betting fish tho.