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TPTK on dry board in a 3bet pot. Fold?!

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lhr0909   China. Jul 15 2014 02:59. Posts 423

My Bodog hands haven't come in yet for the day, so I am grabbing this hand history from Holdem Indicator:

P1(UTG) $2.80 - VP: 19 PFR: 0 AF: 1.5 W: 33|0 STL: 0|50 3B: 0| CB: |100 N: -2.20 Hands: 21
Me(CO) $7.32 - VP: 28 PFR: 24 AF: 0.2 W: 29|100 STL: 43|100 3B: 0|0 CB: 0|0 N: 1.34 Hands: 25
P4(BTN) $10.21 - VP: 50 PFR: 36 AF: 3.0 W: 9|100 STL: 75|67 3B: 10| CB: 100|0 N: 5.97 Hands: 28
P5(SB) $12.27 - VP: 44 PFR: 17 AF: Inf. W: 0| STL: |40 3B: 0| CB: 100|100 N: 0.33 Hands: 18
P6(BB) $1.81 - VP: 14 PFR: 14 AF: 0 W: 100|0 STL: 40|100 3B: 0| CB: N: -0.74 Hands: 22


Pre Flop: Me(CO) with Ac Qc
P1(UTG) folds, Me(CO) raises 0.15, P4(BTN) raises 0.35, P5(SB) folds, P6(BB) folds, Me(CO) calls 0.20


Flop: 5c 2d Qh (2 players)
Me(EP) checks, P4(BTN) bets 0.63, Me(EP) calls 0.63


Turn: 5c 2d Qh 5d (2 players)
Me(EP) checks, P4(BTN) bets 1.75, Me(EP) folds


Final:
Returns 1.75 to P4(BTN)
P4(BTN) wins 1.93


Analysis:

I just switched from SwC (that bitcoin site) to Bovada and still trying to get used to read-less games.

Preflop:

Decided to call this 3bet preflop because the bet sizing is small. I get pretty good implied odds for hitting the flush so why not.

Flop:

TPTK on a fairly dry board. Villain started to bet fairly large (hitting the pot button). It felt super weird because of the bet sizing between preflop and flop does not really tell a complete story. I feel like Villain could have TT+ or AJ+. Would be kinda weird to show up with 55 or 22 but it is also possible. We can probably throw in some sort of Suited Connectors like JTs+ due to the bet sizing. Decided to c/c on this street and see the turn.

Turn:

Turn card is okay, but villain was betting quite large after we checked. I am starting to rule out hands like AJ AK and felt like he is most likely doing it with an overpair, even though his pre sizing showed weakness. From pot odds I need to win almost 50% of the time (around 45% (right?)) to proceed with a call, and raising isn't that good of an option for me because our hand isn't that strong. He could very well be holding QQ+ (even though I still think he could be doing this with JJ TT due to the sizing preflop) and there is no way I am beating that at the time the hand was played. On top of that I had very limited reads with merely 28 hands recorded on my HUD (still hate this) and this was the first hand we played vs each other.

Using Equilab to calculate ranges: Using a pre-defined "3bet vs CO Open" range:

Board: 5c 2d Qh 5d
       Equity      Win      Tie
CO     85.75%  83.68%   2.07% { AcQc }
BU     14.25%  12.18%   2.07% { 44+, A5s+, KTs+, QJs, A8o+, KJo+ }


Using a more narrowed-down range:

Board: 5c 2d Qh 5d
       Equity      Win      Tie
CO     58.14%  57.64%   0.50% { AcQc }
BU     41.86%  41.36%   0.50% { TT+, 55, 22, AKs, A5s, KQs, QTs+, JTs }


Hmm, from the odds I really should be calling here?!

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no pain no gainLast edit: 15/07/2014 03:01

bigredhoss   Cook Islands. Jul 15 2014 04:30. Posts 8646

yeah, call turn and check-call every river.


  On July 15 2014 01:59 lhr0909 wrote:
Analysis:

I just switched from SwC (that bitcoin site) to Bovada and still trying to get used to read-less games.

Preflop:

Decided to call this 3bet preflop because the bet sizing is small. I get pretty good implied odds for hitting the flush so why not.

Flop:

TPTK on a fairly dry board. Villain started to bet fairly large (hitting the pot button). It felt super weird because of the bet sizing between preflop and flop does not really tell a complete story. I feel like Villain could have TT+ or AJ+. Would be kinda weird to show up with 55 or 22 but it is also possible. We can probably throw in some sort of Suited Connectors like JTs+ due to the bet sizing. Decided to c/c on this street and see the turn.



your flop and turn play are fine, i think some of your reasoning is a little off though. why are you including suited connectors like JTs in because of his betsizing? that seems kind of random/arbitrary imo. however, it's a good spot for him to 3-bet and steal/take control of the pot because he has position, so it's reasonable to think he might be wide and have bluffs, some of which could be suited connectors.

you are placing too much emphasis on the difference between his preflop/flop sizing. it's a good observation to make, but players at these stakes are pretty weird and tend to do randomly bad things for different reasons. i'm not saying you need 5000 hands on him to start making assumptions about what he's doing, but for example, in this case: see if he varies his 3bet size, or see what he shows down one of his 3bets with, etc. before assuming there's a correlation between size and strength, or whatever.

put another way: when you make an assumption about how another player thinks, ask yourself if you're making that assumption because that's how you think, or if you're making it because you've actually noticed a tendancy for other players to think that way. if it's the former, wait until you have actual info on the player.


  Turn:

Turn card is okay, but villain was betting quite large after we checked. I am starting to rule out hands like AJ AK and felt like he is most likely doing it with an overpair, even though his pre sizing showed weakness. From pot odds I need to win almost 50% of the time (around 45% (right?)) to proceed with a call, and raising isn't that good of an option for me because our hand isn't that strong. He could very well be holding QQ+ (even though I still think he could be doing this with JJ TT due to the sizing preflop) and there is no way I am beating that at the time the hand was played. On top of that I had very limited reads with merely 28 hands recorded on my HUD (still hate this) and this was the first hand we played vs each other.



JJ/TT and AK are both bluffs here, so it doesn't make sense to eliminate AK but include JJ/TT. AK is actually more likely because a) JJ/TT are likely checking behind either flop or turn, and AK blocks a few Qx hands and has more outs when called.

Truck-Crash Life 

lhr0909   China. Jul 15 2014 10:44. Posts 423


  On July 15 2014 03:30 bigredhoss wrote:
yeah, call turn and check-call every river.



got caught up with the sizing a bit too much. If villain shoves river on a brick should we still call it down? how about on a K?

no pain no gainLast edit: 15/07/2014 11:33

bigredhoss   Cook Islands. Jul 15 2014 18:13. Posts 8646

you could make a case for folding K rivers, but i would still call. you block AQ and KQ and he's going to be bluffing K rivers more often on average.

edit: meant you block AK and KQ obv

Truck-Crash LifeLast edit: 16/07/2014 04:08

lhr0909   China. Jul 16 2014 01:37. Posts 423

Just checked official hand history, and villain had AK

no pain no gain 

Rapoza   Brasil. Jul 16 2014 21:50. Posts 1612

--- Nuked ---

Pouncer Style 4 the win 

johnmagi   Norway. Jul 27 2014 20:29. Posts 1424


  On July 16 2014 00:37 lhr0909 wrote:
Just checked official hand history, and villain had AK



Offical what? You can see HH even if the hand dosent go to showdown?


lhr0909   China. Jul 30 2014 21:51. Posts 423


  On July 27 2014 19:29 johnmagi wrote:
Show nested quote +



Offical what? You can see HH even if the hand dosent go to showdown?


Bovada will show you all the hole cards because you only get HHs 24 hours later.

no pain no gain 

jvilla777   Australia. Jul 31 2014 01:25. Posts 1348

bu's 3b:10, AF:3.0 over 28 hands,

pretty standard call down, otherwise I would probably 4b pre.

longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality! 

 



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