UFC FN 40: Brown vs. Silva

Date: Saturday, May 10th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 17:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 21:00 / 7pm PST / 10pm PST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Matt Brown (18-11) vs. Erick Silva (16-4) (Welterweight)
Costas Philippou (12-4) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-2) (Middleweight)
Erik Koch (14-3) vs. Daron Cruickshank (14-4) (Lightweight)
Neil Magny (9-3) vs. Tim Means (20-5-1) (Welterweight)
Soa Palelei (20-3) vs. Ruan Potts (8-1) (Heavyweight)
Chris Cariaso (16-5) vs. Louis Smolka (7-0) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)

Ed Herman (21-10) vs. Rafael Natal (17-5-1) (Middleweight)
Kyoji Horiguchi (12-1) vs. Darrell Montague (13-3) (Flyweight)
Yan Cabral (11-0) vs. Zak Cummings (16-3) (Welterweight)
Eddie Wineland (21-9-1) vs. Johnny Eduardo (26-9) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Manvel Gamburyan (13-7) vs. Nik Lentz (24-6-2) (Featherweight)
Justin Salas (11-5) vs. Ben Wall (7-1-1) (Lightweight)
Anthony Lapsley (23-6) vs. Albert Tumenov (12-2) (Welterweight)

Other

- Alexander Yakovlev and Yan Cabral were originally scheduled to face each other in a welterweight bout. However, on April 9, Yakovlev was moved to the The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 Finale card as he replaced an injured Mike Pierce against Demian Maia. Cabral will now face Zak Cummings at the event.
- William Macario was expected to face Neil Magny at the event. However, Macario was removed from the bout for undisclosed reasons and replaced by returning veteran Tim Means.

First thoughts:

• Brown > Silva
• Larkin > Philippou
• Koch > Cruickshank
• Means > Magny
• Palelei vs. Potts (dunno yet)
• Smolka > Cariaso
• Natal > Herman
• Horiguchi > Montague
• Cabral vs. Cummings (dunno yet)
• Wineland > Eduardo
• Lentz > Gamburyan
• Salas vs. Wall (dunno yet)
• Lapsley vs. Tumenov (dunno yet, leaning Lapsley)

WTF Brown is at +190.

Got Brown at +305 straight up lol

Looked like insane value, got him in some parlays at +298.

I don't see how Silva is such a huge favourite.

Brown hasnt really fought anyone good. Erick Silva gave Jon Fitch a good fight.

With that said, i think I still like Brown at +190

how does brown not have a title shot yet

On May 07 2014 11:45 HaiVan wrote: Got Brown at +305 straight up lol Looked like insane value, got him in some parlays at +298. I don't see how Silva is such a huge favourite.

What book do you use to get Brown at +305. I think for a split second he was +220 on 5dimes.

On May 07 2014 13:28 SeanBam wrote: Show nested quote + On May 07 2014 11:45 HaiVan wrote: Got Brown at +305 straight up lol Looked like insane value, got him in some parlays at +298. I don't see how Silva is such a huge favourite. What book do you use to get Brown at +305. I think for a split second he was +220 on 5dimes.

Yeah i got him at 3.05 not +305. Didn't remember the odds correctly.

Still think its a pretty good bet at +205.

agree with everyone. silva rightly favored, but too much. should be -150. dont get it

Silva vs Brown - I dunno I went back and watched all of the Eric Silva and Matt Brown fights I can find. Silva could finish this one off quick and make it look like he should have been a huge favorite, but if the first round is close, I like Brown's cardio and relentless clinch game big time. I'm probably gonna stay away from this one and just enjoy what promises to be a very good scrap.

Larkin > Phillipou big time, don't care that hes a 2-1 fav.... Philipou is a boxer with the zero versatility, wrestling, or ground game. That matches up horribly in an MMA fight vs a diverse striker like Larkin who is athletic and has really powerful and crafty strikes / leg kicks.

Koch > Cruikshank pretty big, the line isn't great though but I'll put it in a parlay. Koch is just way better, Cuik just has some neat kicks that he'll never be able to land on Koch and on the groud Koch >>>> him.

Means vs Magney - I expect Means to most likely win but I'm gonna put a bet on Magney as long as he stays at +235 or w/e. The guy has improved quite well since TUF.

Palelei vs Potts - I have no clue.

Smolka vs Cariasso - Have to watch their fights again.

Natal > Herman - Good value here at almost a pick'em, Herman is so old and slow, probably the slowest P4P fighter in the UFC, I can't see him getting a finish at all and he could get subbed or tagged. If it's a decision it'll prolly be pretty close.

Horiguchi vs Montague - Don't expect a finish in this one after seeing the kind of punishment Darryl took vs Dodson. He's a tough SOB even though he did end up succumbing in the first rd. I kinda like Montague if he gets to +175.

Cabral > Cummings - Why the hell is Cummings still in the UFC?

Wineland > Eduardo

Lentz > Gamburian - Was pissed that Lentz is such a big favortie, no value there, but he's far better fighter than Manny in every way except 1-punch power stuff

Wall > Salas - I'm picking this solely because Salas is awful, and I always have good luck when picking against really bad fighters even if I know nothing about the other guy

Lapsley vs Tumonev - I'm torn but I'm gonna put a small bet on Lapsley because its a good style matchup for him and hes a fairly sizeable dog.

Well I get the thinking. Eric is a way better athlete and should be able to get Brown to the mat pretty easily and from there Brown has 9 sub losses. Almost all of them to people much worse than Silva at BJJ.

Question is, will that be Silva's game plan? All I've ever seen him do is brawl in the UFC and if he brawls with Brown he's certainly a underdog.

I think there's value on Eddie Wineland...hes just going to wreck that kid..

Have a small bet here on Brown at +220. Mainly because it is a main event (5 rounds) and Silva tends to slow down and Brown is tough to finish.

PR know any other streaming sites to watch fights on? fights4all doesn't work anymore

I dont know I dont like to bet against Silva he is just weird he seems to me like a true prodigy that just finds way to lose fights, I think one day he will get past that shit and destroy everyone

On May 09 2014 23:17 Baalim wrote: I dont know I dont like to bet against Silva he is just weird he seems to me like a true prodigy that just finds way to lose fights, I think one day he will get past that shit and destroy everyone

if he was 24 id agree, but hes about to turn 30. i think hes just the kind of fighter that absolutely destroys everyone who isnt in the same league as him, but if you are a top 20 guy you can give him fits, frustrate him and eventually win.

then again, fitch was still a top 5 guy and he was really crushing DHK before the flukey KO. i dunno, i just dont trust him past the first few minutes of a fight

Real talk, if Erick Silva wasn't extremely handsome, nobody would give a fuck about him. He had a good record against nobodies prior to joining the UFC, but since then, he hasn't lived up to the hype he's received by the bookies and fanboys.

Erick Silva has had 7 fights in the UFC thus far:

• In 2014, he beat Takenori Sato (who?) in 52 seconds via TKO. This was an extremely late replacement fight for Sato.
• In 2013, he got 1-punch KO`ed by Dong Hyun Kim.
• In 2013, he beat Jason High via submission in 1 minute and 11 seconds.
• In 2012, he lost to Jon Fitch via grapple fuck.
• In 2012, he beat Charlie Brenneman via submission in 4 minutes and 33 seconds.
• In 2012, he was beating Carlo Prater until he lost via DQ (punches to the back of the head).
• In 2011, he beat Luis Ramos (who?) in 40 seconds via KO. Ramos fought Matt Brown in his next fight and got TKO`ed by Brown.

° Erick has traded wins and losses since entering the UFC, and if we go by that method, he's due for a loss.
° He's never beaten a top 15 fighter, and possibly never beat a top 20 fighter, I just can't remember if Brenneman was ranked 16-20 when he lost to Erick.
° Jason High was a late replacement fill-in for John Hathaway, and was making his 2nd run in the UFC after Strikeforce folded.
° Luis Ramos was a late replacement fill-in for Mike Swick.
° Erick doesn't do well with aggressive fighters, as it it forces him to get hit a lot and he isn't able to employ his purely offensive style of fighting. He has a 46.5% striking defense ratio, which is terrible if you compare it to other fighters. Conversely, Matt Brown has a 58.2% striking defense ratio. If you ever seen a Matt Brown fight, you'll know that he isn't shy when getting hit and takes a decent amount of damage, which is okay for him cuz he has a great chin.
° After Erick beat Brenneman, Brenneman lost to Kyle Noke and then was released from the promotion. Brenneman recently got another chance, but he was finished in his 2 return fights. I'm pretty sure Brenneman isn't in the UFC anymore.
° Carlo Prater isn't in the UFC anymore.
° Luis Ramos isn't in the UFC anymore.
° All 4 UFC wins for Erick have come in the first round. 3 of them were about a minute or less in length.

My bets:

- Matt Brown (+190)
- Brown vs Silva under 1.5 rounds (+110). Both fighters had lot of finishes in round 1
- Wineland + Smolka (+100)