Urubu's propbet

How come there is nothing about the propbet here yet, esp. given Joeingram is kinda the promoter???

Anyway, 500k midstakes non-zoom plo hands in 45 days, must turn profit. 2:1 odds in Urubu's favor.

Details here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/153/high-stakes-pl-omaha/prop-bet-500k-hands-45days-midstakes-1436882/

Thoughts?

the amount of hands is quite easy imo ...
I could do it and I'm fucking lazy.

No way I could turn a profit tho

doesnt he have an edge in this? midstakes plo is probably his bread and butter and has been probably been playing for years He knows how much he can make and play(probably has been calculating for a very long time now) and the people betting against him probably dont even play plo let alone how much he can play and make.

i guess people love to bet just to see other suffer through hundreds of thousands of hands.

lil over 10k hands a day. Bettors shouldve given him 3-1 and made it 1 month.

On May 04 2014 18:06 JohnnyBologna wrote: i guess people love to bet just to see other suffer through hundreds of thousands of hands.

lthis. many hardcore grinders who have done propbets against 2p2 bettors have made a lot of money knowing this

he offered 450k hands @ 1:1 first at brazilian forum
no action, so he tried 2+2

Seems pretty tough

I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get it

On May 04 2014 20:19 drone666 wrote: he offered 450k hands @ 1:1 first at brazilian forum no action, so he tried 2+2

brazilians were too nitty so he had to get action from math nerds, what is going on

my gut reaction was that urubu should be around 50%+ to do it. think the hands are easy for him and always thought he did well at midstakes so i figured he would get it.

but then my followup reaction was that 1/2 and 2/4 are somewhat rake traps and 3/6 is probably much tougher and he wont have room to game select. think its going to be hard simply because of how much rake gets taken at 1/2 2/4

I've always heard that rake is so high at the lower stakes, and I just nod, and think "mm, prolly high". But I don't really feel I get it, how high it really is. If it's so high on 1/2, isn't it "insane" how high it is on micro, like on nl25

Can someone who is really smart explain it to me in a way I'll understand, and in as few numbers as possible lol (numbers make me a little dizzy).

On May 05 2014 04:56 Mariuslol wrote: I've always heard that rake is so high at the lower stakes, and I just nod, and think "mm, prolly high". But I don't really feel I get it, how high it really is. If it's so high on 1/2, isn't it "insane" how high it is on micro, like on nl25 Can someone who is really smart explain it to me in a way I'll understand, and in as few numbers as possible lol (numbers make me a little dizzy).

In my PLO100 sample this year, the rake is $10,936 over 146,333 hands.

That means around 7.5 bb/100.
I play rather tight (vpip around 23-24%) and the playstyle has quite an impact, so for a LAG player who plays say vpip 36, it can go way up, I'd guess to around 9-10 bb/100.

Also, almost all "winning" regulars in this (=zoom plo100) game have winrates in the range of -1bb to 3bb (obviously there are some who have much more but those are rarely regs in this game for long). So basically for almost all but very few crushers, rakeback (~41% or like 3-3.5 bb/100 for SN) makes up more than 50% of their income (or more than 100% in a lot of cases).

Edit: I also have a small PLO50 sample of around 24k hands with similar stats (vpip 24) and the rake goes up to about 9.1 bb/100.

I played a couple of thousand hands at plo5-10 and rake is somewhere between 15-20bb/100. Played with 30+ VPIP.

Party, VPIP 26

PLO25 - 19 bb/100
PLO50 - 16 bb/100
PLO100 - 13 bb/100
PLO200 - 10 bb/100
PLO400 - 6 bb/100 (small sample)
PLO1000 - 3 bb/100 (small sample)

damn, niggas be gettin robbed

As much as I love and miss Pokerstars it seems the rake is getting higher and higher.

Now that they sell play money, they rake play money, too

On May 05 2014 00:01 bigredhoss wrote: Show nested quote + On May 04 2014 20:19 drone666 wrote: he offered 450k hands @ 1:1 first at brazilian forum no action, so he tried 2+2 brazilians were too nitty so he had to get action from math nerds, what is going on

LOL

On May 05 2014 15:00 chris wrote: As much as I love and miss Pokerstars it seems the rake is getting higher and higher. Now that they sell play money, they rake play money, too

LOL

Challenge update:

91k hands
-$8k real money
+$12k EV



Urubu wrote

some curious facts... biggest enemy: 1- ch.ilax ch.uck, -3,1k to him. (really sick, he sat w $280 at 3/6 and playing 100/100/100 he leaves w 5k stack) 2- yayayaya. good reg. 2,2k to him 3- gi0pot.seven. crazy guy, fun player. -2k to him. for people asking wheres paw, he is at 6th, im -1,9k to him. best friends: 1- dankness. good reg. +3,5k on him . 2- jp.pro.eightnine . fun player, +2,7k 3- purplek. another good reg. +2k on him. for curious, the 6th is one of the best mid stakes players, and judge of this challenge, godlikeroy. +1,4k on him . im very surprised to see good regs on my best friend list, and also very surprised to see im only 2k down to paw. i thought id like -15k to him lol. this idiot is making my life like hell, and i have to assume im gettined owed hard by him. he is playing very good against me . but its part of the game, some people are better than you . i dont mind, im fine.

On May 05 2014 16:50 Joe wrote: Challenge update: 91k hands -$8k real money +$12k EV Urubu wrote Show nested quote + some curious facts... biggest enemy: 1- ch.ilax ch.uck, -3,1k to him. (really sick, he sat w $280 at 3/6 and playing 100/100/100 he leaves w 5k stack) 2- yayayaya. good reg. 2,2k to him 3- gi0pot.seven. crazy guy, fun player. -2k to him. for people asking wheres paw, he is at 6th, im -1,9k to him. best friends: 1- dankness. good reg. +3,5k on him . 2- jp.pro.eightnine . fun player, +2,7k 3- purplek. another good reg. +2k on him. for curious, the 6th is one of the best mid stakes players, and judge of this challenge, godlikeroy. +1,4k on him . im very surprised to see good regs on my best friend list, and also very surprised to see im only 2k down to paw. i thought id like -15k to him lol. this idiot is making my life like hell, and i have to assume im gettined owed hard by him. he is playing very good against me . but its part of the game, some people are better than you . i dont mind, im fine.

sick graph, so variance will be a non factor over the total hands? or is it still going to be very wide margins?

On May 04 2014 17:26 waga wrote: the amount of hands is quite easy imo ... I could do it and I'm fucking lazy. No way I could turn a profit tho

hahaha

oh really?

the hands part becomes much harder if you are down 100k during that time

yes sure its easy to play all those hands in that time if you can lose an unlimited amount of money