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UFC 172: Jones vs. Teixeira

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PuertoRican   United States. Apr 20 2014 23:21. Posts 13023

Date: Saturday, April 26th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:30 LP.net / 4:30pm PST / 7:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card Time (PPV): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (PPV)

Jon Jones (19-1) vs. Glover Teixeira (22-2) (Light Heavyweight Championship)
Phil Davis (12-1) vs. Anthony Johnson (16-4) (Light Heavyweight)
Luke Rockhold (11-2) vs. Tim Boetsch (17-6) (Middleweight)
Jim Miller (23-4) vs. Yancy Medeiros (9-1) (Lightweight)
Max Holloway (8-3) vs. Andre Fili (13-1) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Joseph Benavidez (19-4) vs. Tim Elliott (10-4-1) (Flyweight)
Takanori Gomi (34-9) vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (14-4-1) (Lightweight)
Jessamyn Duke (3-0) vs. Bethe Correia (7-0) (Women's Bantamweight)
Danny Castillo (16-6) vs. Charlie Brenneman (19-6) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Chris Beal (8-0) vs. Patrick Williams (7-3) (Bantamweight)

Other

- Danny Castillo was expected to face Isaac Vallie-Flagg at this event. However, Castillo was replaced by Takanori Gomi and will now fight Charlie Brenneman.
- Tarec Saffiedine was originally scheduled to face Jake Ellenberger in a welterweight bout, but withdrew due to a back injury. As a result, Ellenberger was removed from the card and will now face Robbie Lawler at UFC 173.
- Just one week before the event, Bobby Green suffered an injury and was forced out of the card. Yancy Medeiros, who was supposed to fight Joe Ellenberger, stepped in to face Green's original opponent Jim Miller. Ellenberger is now expected to face returning veteran Vagner Rocha on 1 week notice.
- Vagner Rocha got injured 3 days before the event. No replacement fighter was found, so Joe Ellenberger will not make his UFC debut on this card.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 26/04/2014 03:15

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 20 2014 23:24. Posts 13023

First thoughts:

• Jones > Teixeira
• Davis vs. Johnson (dunno yet)
• Rockhold > Boetsch
• Miller > Madeiros (Madeiros is scrappy, I could see it going the distance with Miller having to work)
• Holloway vs. Fili (dunno yet, leaning Holloway)
• Benavidez > Elliott
• Gomi > Flagg
• Duke > Correira
• Rocha vs. Ellenberger (dunno yet)
• Castillo > Brenneman
• Beal > Williams

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Apr 20 2014 23:40. Posts 2662

Betting aside, if every fight were a pickem, I'd pick

Jones > Tex
Davis > Johnson
Rockhold > Boetsch
Miller > Madeiros
Fili > Holloway*
Benavidez > Elliot
Gomi > Flagg*
No clue on Duke v Correira
No clue on Rocha v Ellenberger
Castillo > Brenneman*
No clue on Beal v Williams

* I will very likely be betting Flagg if he is a big enough dog, I'm not very impressed with Gomi lately and the guy who beat Flagg's ass in his last fight - Elias Silverio - is a great prospect but very few people know who he is which should help make the odds even more juicy for Flagg. I'm thinking if Flagg is +300 or better I'll lay a bet on him
* I am def betting Castillo if the odds stay where they are, I think he should be a bigger favorite than -250
* In Fili v Holloway If either guy is +140 or better I'd bet them in this fight, it's almost a pickem in my head but Fili is more explosive

 Last edit: 20/04/2014 23:41

soberstone   United States. Apr 20 2014 23:46. Posts 2662

Oh yah and this isn't a very good card considering Jones, the P4P best fighter in the world, is headlining. Disappointing but I'll watch because I'm nerdy like that.


PuertoRican   United States. Apr 20 2014 23:51. Posts 13023


  On April 20 2014 22:46 soberstone wrote:
Oh yah and this isn't a very good card considering Jones, the P4P best fighter in the world, is headlining. Disappointing but I'll watch because I'm nerdy like that.



Yeah, they usually have Jones as the headliner and the rest of the card is weak, which is why the UFC had to cancel one of their PPV's a year ago or so, when Jones was injured or something.

Fight Network $2000 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/25051...-on-ufc-172-jones-vs-teixeira-T-free/

Rekrul is a newb 

jvilla777   Australia. Apr 21 2014 00:48. Posts 1348

all in on jones with this one

longple: ur missing the point! this is an attempt to get away from the bumhuntmentality! 

FiSheYe   Germany. Apr 21 2014 06:39. Posts 214

It's actually a good card in my eyes


• Jones > Teixeira
Teixeira didn't look good in his last fight and even if I would have seen Jones as a big fav.
I really hope Texeira has more to offer, if he wins that would be awesome for light heavyweight

• Davis vs. Johnson (dunno yet)
Davis and Johnson improved a shitload, Johnsons stand up is way way more dangerous than Davis.
I am hoping for an upset here and that Johnson wins by TKO or decision (but thats mainly because I like Johnsons fighting style).
If Davis wins its almost always by decision and maybe submission. Dunno what the lines are but Davis should be a decent fav.

• Rockhold > Boetsch
Not a Boetsch fan nor believer. I think Rockhold is a way better fighter and with the right game plan should be able to win this

• Miller > Madeiros
Miller usually finds a way to win

• Holloway > Fili
based on little information about Fili

• Benavidez > Elliott
Not gonna bet against Benavidez unless it is a Top3 opponent

• Gomi > Flagg, //• Duke > Correira//• Beal > Williams
No clue tbh, nor do I care

• Rocha < Ellenberger
Ellenberger, but not enough information

• Castillo > Brenneman
Brenneman is almost only wrestlefucking and Castillo has serious hands and an overall mature game. Not a Brenneman fan and wouldn't mind if he gets cut by the UFC

 Last edit: 21/04/2014 14:58

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 21 2014 07:31. Posts 9634

isnt there a proper promo w music

also after losing GSP and Silva I dont think the UFC can afford to lose Jones :D

 Last edit: 21/04/2014 07:34

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 21 2014 08:58. Posts 13023


  On April 21 2014 05:39 FiSheYe wrote:
• Rocha < Ellenberger
Ellenberger should have this unless he has a bad game plan or goes all berserk the first round doesn't KO Rocha and then gasses and loses the 2nd and 3rd



It's Joe Ellenberger, not Jake Ellenberger. They're twins, but Joe fights at Lightweight. Joe doesn't have the same cardio issues as Jake.

Rekrul is a newb 

JonnyCosMo   United States. Apr 21 2014 12:30. Posts 7292

Jones won't lose for a very long time... if ever...

Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser 

cariadon   Estonia. Apr 21 2014 14:25. Posts 4019


  On April 21 2014 11:30 JonnyCosMo wrote:
Jones won't lose for a very long time... if ever...



Did you watch the match with Gustaffson ?


FiSheYe   Germany. Apr 21 2014 14:59. Posts 214

Hey PuertoRican, thx should have looked closer into it, thx for correcting me


soberstone   United States. Apr 21 2014 21:21. Posts 2662


  On April 21 2014 11:30 JonnyCosMo wrote:
Jones won't lose for a very long time... if ever...



I agree with you about for a long time, but much less so after the Gus fight. That was a war that could have gone either way. Even if you scored it for Jones (which I did the last time I watched it) - no1 could have been surprised if they gave it to Gus considering real robberies occur all the time. Nonetheless, I think that was the perfect fight to push Jones to a level that is practically untouchable because he actually figured out he's not perfect and maybe stopped buying his own hype. The real shame is that him vs Cormier is pretty much a super-fight in my eyes but it probably won't even be one of their biggest cards. Jones is a terrible draw for how good he is because his personality is just totally vanilla most of the time and he says dumb hypocritical shit. Even that doesn't explain why the P4P best fighter on the planet isn't a big draw though, it's really weird and really bad for the UFC.

 Last edit: 21/04/2014 21:21

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 21 2014 23:27. Posts 13023



----------

Countdown to UFC 172 videos: Jones/Teixeira, Davis/Johnson, Rockhold/Boetsch

+ Show Spoiler +



----------

Miller - Was supposed to fight Bobby Green
Medeiros - Was supposed to fight Joe Ellenberger
Benavidez - returning from KO loss
Gomi - ring rust 419 days
Ellenberger - returning from red blood cell disease, ring rust 497 days
Rocha - Short notice in for Yancy Medeiros (less than 1 week)
Brenneman - returning from TKO loss
Beal - UFC debut
Williams - UFC debut

Rekrul is a newb 

Baalim   Mexico. Apr 22 2014 00:33. Posts 34246

Jones is a bad match up for Texeira, he is kind of an improved and bigger rampage (maybe less explosive too), they arent very good at managing range, their striking excels in the pocket with head movement and tight technical punches and that kinf of striker will have a lot of trouble getting in range to punch Jones, they dont have a fast jab that reduces distance, they prefer hooks and Gustaffson showed that the leaping jab should be the bread and butter for anyone fighting Jones.

That is without taking into account takedowns, I think Gustaffsons TD defense kind of made us forget just how good Jones wrestling is, Texeira might not be able to stop it. That being said Texeira is big and has monkey arms theres always a good chance he can sneak a powerful hook, but every time Ive said that about other dangerous striker like Belfort Jones made them seem like they were drawing dead.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

Stim_Abuser   United States. Apr 22 2014 00:40. Posts 7499

Did you see what Glover did to Rampage?

Also Glover has one thing that no one Jones has faced yet, which is relentless pressure. Well I guess you could say Chael had that but is a one dimensional MW.

Jones is obv a big favorite but I'm pretty interested in the match up. Glover is better than most people think he is. His wrestling, BJJ, and cardio are all really good on top of his good boxing.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 22 2014 01:37. Posts 13023


  On April 21 2014 23:40 Stim_Abuser wrote:
Did you see what Glover did to Rampage?

Also Glover has one thing that no one Jones has faced yet, which is relentless pressure. Well I guess you could say Chael had that but is a one dimensional MW.

Jones is obv a big favorite but I'm pretty interested in the match up. Glover is better than most people think he is. His wrestling, BJJ, and cardio are all really good on top of his good boxing.



Just like the Gustafsson fight, I'm not sure how to bet this one. My only lean was o2.5 rounds, but that isn't available this time, only the o3.5 rounds. Jones doesn't hit super hard like other guys Tex has faced before, so the only thing I'm worried about is Jones landing a spinning elbow, which I think will land on Tex at some point since he doesn't move as fast as other guys at 205. Jones could get a take down, but I think Tex' BJJ and scrambling will be good enough to not get opened up by those vicious elbows that Jones can land via GnP.

I kinda agree with Baal, in that Tex does seem similar to Rampage. Anyway, I'm not going to even bother capping this fight or thinking about it at all until Saturday, as I have a busy school week. I'll probably just do what I did with the Werdum/Browne fight and lay $5 to $10 on Teixeira at +400 or better, and then live bet the fight from there (if it goes that long).

The fights I'm most interested in are Davis/Johnson, Holloyway/Fili, and Gomi/Flagg. The latter will be a slug fest for 3 rounds.

Rekrul is a newb 

alejandicto   . Apr 22 2014 14:35. Posts 865

I am betting a parlay on Jones + Benavides and a bet on Anthony Johnson at +180. I may bet on Gomi and Max too, but dont know the odds yet.

Boetch is at +557, firstly I thought on betting on him but the more I think in thist fight the more I think I shouldnt bet on this one. Rockhold will beat Tim easily IMO, but the odds are really sad.


PuertoRican   United States. Apr 22 2014 15:38. Posts 13023


  On April 22 2014 13:35 alejandicto wrote:
I am betting a parlay on Jones + Benavides and a bet on Anthony Johnson at +180. I may bet on Gomi and Max too, but dont know the odds yet.

Boetch is at +557, firstly I thought on betting on him but the more I think in thist fight the more I think I shouldnt bet on this one. Rockhold will beat Tim easily IMO, but the odds are really sad.



I told myself that I wouldn't touch Boetsch unless he was at least +900. There's no one area that he's better than Rockhold in. Boetsch shouldn't have taken this fight, it's so weird.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Apr 22 2014 18:57. Posts 2662


  On April 22 2014 13:35 alejandicto wrote:
I am betting a parlay on Jones + Benavides and a bet on Anthony Johnson at +180. I may bet on Gomi and Max too, but dont know the odds yet.

Boetch is at +557, firstly I thought on betting on him but the more I think in thist fight the more I think I shouldnt bet on this one. Rockhold will beat Tim easily IMO, but the odds are really sad.



The more I think about it the more Jones is a complete lock. I love your parlay and would be doing a similar one if my betting site had parlays for mma which they don't which blows.

Also, please don't bet Boetsh, the juice is so heavy in those wide lines and he's just gonna lose. It's not like hes a good striker and can catch Rockhold, and there is ZERO chance of him closing the distance and out grappling him for 3 rounds. I think there is actually still value on Rockhold @ -800, I just wouldn't bet a fight like that because mentally I hate risking huge money to make money.

The only thing I'd do different is not bet Johnson because he's going to get grapple-fucked and lose, and I'd just make a separate parlay with Jones, Joe B, and Phil. If that get's you even money, which I think it will, that is a money parlay.


 
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