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UFC on FOX 11: Werdum vs. Browne

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PuertoRican   United States. Apr 15 2014 21:59. Posts 13024

Date: Wednesday, April 19th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 14:30 LP.net / 12:30pm PST / 3:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 16:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (FOX)

Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) vs. Travis Browne (16-1-1) (Heavyweight title eliminator)
Miesha Tate (13-5) vs. Liz Carmouche (9-4) (Women's Bantamweight)
Donald Cerrone (22-6) vs. Edson Barboza (13-1) (Lightweight)
Brad Tavares (12-1) vs. Yoel Romero (7-1) (Middleweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Rafael dos Anjos (20-6) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (21-0) (Lightweight)
Thiago Alves (19-9) vs. Seth Baczynski (19-10) (Welterweight)
Jorge Masvidal (25-8) vs. Pat Healy (29-18) (Lightweight)
Estevan Payan (14-5) vs. Alex White (9-0) (Featherweight)
Caio Magalhaes (7-1) vs. Luke Zachrich (13-2) (Middleweight)
Jordan Mein (27-9) vs. Hernani Perpetuo (17-3) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Dustin Ortiz (12-3) vs. Ray Borg (6-0) (Flyweight)
Mirsad Bektic (7-0) vs. Chas Skelly (11-0) (Featherweight)
Derrick Lewis (9-2) vs. Jack May (7-0) (Heavyweight)

Other

- Estevan Payan was expected to face Sean Soriano at this event. However, Soriano was forced to pull out due to injury and was replaced by Mike Brown. In turn, Brown was forced out of the bout and was replaced by promotional newcomer Alex White.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio was expected to face Jordan Mein at this event. However, Ponzinibbio was removed from the bout and was replaced by Hernani Perpetuo.
- Caio Magalhães was expected to face Josh Samman at the event. However on April 8, Samman pulled out of the bout citing a hamstring injury and was replaced by promtional newcomer Luke Zachrich.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 15 2014 22:03. Posts 13024



----------

First thoughts:

• Browne > Werdum
• Carmouche > Tate
• Cerrone vs. Barboza (dunno yet, leaning toward Barboza)
• Tavares > Romero
• RDA vs. Nurmagomedov (dunno yet)
• Alves > Baczynski
• Masvidal > Healy
• Payan vs. White (dunno yet)
• Magalhaes vs. Zachrich (dunno yet)
• Mein > Perpetuo
• Ortiz > Borg
• Bektic > Skelly
• Lewis > May

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 00:11. Posts 2662

Werdum = good bet +200, I think it's a pickem and there's value there

I'm surprised lines on other fights aren't out yet that I can see. Gonna be the sickest card in a minute possibly.

 Last edit: 16/04/2014 00:12

soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 00:16. Posts 2662

Pretty confident in Khabib to get it done vs RDA, agree about Masvidal - great match up for him and poor Healy gonna be on the chopping block, I hope Romero ktfo of Tavares and I he think he might - sure hope so, but would be a little surprised.


Stim_Abuser   United States. Apr 16 2014 01:44. Posts 7499

My first impression was this was a really bad fight for Werdum because Brownes TDD is so good. I was looking back on some of Brownes fights and I wouldn't be surprised is Werdum out strikes him. He's very athletic and lean but he's pretty sloppy and not that great on the feet and has pretty bad defense.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

TianYuan    Korea (South). Apr 16 2014 03:58. Posts 6817

Yo, PR, this is a longshot but I figure if anyone will know what I'm talking about it's you...

I recently reinstalled my computer, and forgot to save my bookmarks... Anyway, there was this website (I think I found it off BloodyElbow or Sherdog) of some MMA sportsbetting guy, real simple design (just white-black-green I think), with just his upcoming picks and his history of betting (recent % of correct picks, overall, how much money would have been made if X money was bet on each pick ETCETC). As far as I remember the site wasn't selling anything and didn't have much content aside from the stats.

Anyway, chances are you have no idea what I'm talking about but maybe you do? :D

Hm.. Off-suite socks.. 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 04:14. Posts 13024


  On April 16 2014 02:58 TianYuan wrote:
Yo, PR, this is a longshot but I figure if anyone will know what I'm talking about it's you...

I recently reinstalled my computer, and forgot to save my bookmarks... Anyway, there was this website (I think I found it off BloodyElbow or Sherdog) of some MMA sportsbetting guy, real simple design (just white-black-green I think), with just his upcoming picks and his history of betting (recent % of correct picks, overall, how much money would have been made if X money was bet on each pick ETCETC). As far as I remember the site wasn't selling anything and didn't have much content aside from the stats.

Anyway, chances are you have no idea what I'm talking about but maybe you do? :D



Nah, not sure what website you're referring to. If he has a YouTube page, I might know who it is. The only guy I remember who uses green in their YouTube picks is CSFightOdds.

Rekrul is a newb 

FiSheYe   Germany. Apr 16 2014 07:20. Posts 214

Wow, pretty few Blockbuster names on that card, still I like it more than most cards.
There are not many washed up fighters with high name recognition, instead those are some of the up and coming people that could be future prospects. Hoping for good fights but I know I will watch at least a few (which hasn't been true for most UFC cards recently)!

Not gonna bet but I would suspect:

• Browne > Werdum - Hmm, Werdums stand up has still improved, ground game obv world class, I just think Browne is way too underrated and improved more lately, he is very athletic and slowly his power and stand up skillz come together in a scary way
• Carmouche > Tate - tough to tell and I will watch but don't really care
• Cerrone =. Barboza - Really believe it depends on which Cerrone shows up
• Tavares < Romero - Romero is a rough diamond, not sure if he can become a higher LvL powerhouse, but I sure hope so, his movement is between creative/great and awkward/wrestler-who-moved-over-and-needs-time
• RDA < Nurmagomedov - Loved Nurmagomedov so far and he is even more underrated than Renan Barao, I hope he hasn't hit his sealing and is showing more of his skillz. Also helps with getting more exposure for eastern european fighters!
• Alves > Baczynski - I think Alves is more or less done, he had so many injuries and is not gonna be a contender anymore, add in his other issues and you have someone who I really appreciate in the sport but I doubt he can archive much anymore.
Lost like 2-4 in past fights, granted he looked very good vs Kampmann but that fight was 2 years ago. Ring rust and being 30 now, I hope he does well but there is no strong argument for it
• Masvidal > Healy - Hope for Healy but Masvidal is strong

• Payan = White - dunno, don't care
• Magalhaes = Zachrich - same same
• Mein > Perpetuo - Not enough knowledge, just by what I know so far
• Ortiz > Borg - same same
• Bektic, Skell, Lewis,May are not on my radar


Baalim   Mexico. Apr 17 2014 00:21. Posts 34246

wat.. I was waiting on this to bet on Browne thinking the line was going to favour Werdum... damn oddsmakers are better every day

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

soberstone   United States. Apr 17 2014 01:19. Posts 2662


  On April 16 2014 23:21 Baalim wrote:
wat.. I was waiting on this to bet on Browne thinking the line was going to favour Werdum... damn oddsmakers are better every day



I guess people agree with you because the gap has widened since the line came out. I really don't agree, Werdum is really smart and doesn't just try to put his head down and muscle double legs so I don't see those elbows being a huge issue, which is how Brown beat Gonzaga and Barnett (not discrediting him it was super impressive just saying I don't think it will be a factor here).

The Overeem fight he should have lost, let's get real... he showed a lot of heart but Overeem gassed and stood there and ate front kicks until one put him out.... Than you have Werdum who is the best submission grappler in the world in his weightclass and has only gotten better on his feet, and has not taken too much damage in his career.

I think this fight is a pickem but I love the line for Werdum.


soberstone   United States. Apr 17 2014 01:24. Posts 2662

Carmouche @ +170 might be the best line on the card..... I just think she's gonna muscle Tate around and since KO's are literally a non-factor in women's MMA, atleast at this point, it's extremely likely to come down to takedowns and position. Miesha doesn't seem as hungry to me as Liz either, which is just kinda icing on the cake for this bet.


PuertoRican   United States. Apr 17 2014 01:47. Posts 13024


  On April 17 2014 00:24 soberstone wrote:
Carmouche @ +170 might be the best line on the card..... I just think she's gonna muscle Tate around and since KO's are literally a non-factor in women's MMA, atleast at this point, it's extremely likely to come down to takedowns and position. Miesha doesn't seem as hungry to me as Liz either, which is just kinda icing on the cake for this bet.



Yep. Carmouche is my current favorite line on the card. She is much stronger, the harder hitter, and their cardio is about the same afaik. Carmouche just needs to avoid giving up her back at all costs, and not turn into a "deer in the headlights" like she did in her last fight where she basically lost due to a ton of low leg kicks that stopped her from bull rushing in with her punches.

Tate is on her way out, she's just being kept around because of her looks + name value + weak division. If Julie Kedzie didn't have a brain fart, she would have beat Tate in Strikeforce and Tate would be on a 4-fight losing streak right now.

I was gonna go really big on Tavares, but Bookmaker gets lines so late. Tavares opened at +100 on 5dimes, now he's -160. If I can get Tavares at -140 or better, I will make a big bet on him. I'm not sure how live betting will work out between Tavares and Romero, since Romero is a slow starter, which means Tavares' line most likely won't get any better unless he gets rocked/knocked down.

Rekrul is a newb 

TianYuan    Korea (South). Apr 17 2014 01:48. Posts 6817


  On April 16 2014 03:14 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +



Nah, not sure what website you're referring to. If he has a YouTube page, I might know who it is. The only guy I remember who uses green in their YouTube picks is CSFightOdds.

Managed to un-lazy myself and found it in my backsup skype logs ;d

http://predictfights.com/

Hm.. Off-suite socks.. 

devon06atX   Canada. Apr 17 2014 01:57. Posts 5458

I hope girl on the left wins.


Baalim   Mexico. Apr 17 2014 02:46. Posts 34246


  On April 17 2014 00:19 soberstone wrote:
Show nested quote +



I guess people agree with you because the gap has widened since the line came out. I really don't agree, Werdum is really smart and doesn't just try to put his head down and muscle double legs so I don't see those elbows being a huge issue, which is how Brown beat Gonzaga and Barnett (not discrediting him it was super impressive just saying I don't think it will be a factor here).

The Overeem fight he should have lost, let's get real... he showed a lot of heart but Overeem gassed and stood there and ate front kicks until one put him out.... Than you have Werdum who is the best submission grappler in the world in his weightclass and has only gotten better on his feet, and has not taken too much damage in his career.

I think this fight is a pickem but I love the line for Werdum.


I agree, I just tought Werdum was gong to be like -160 or something, at +200 I think its a bet on Werdum, despise his great run I dont think many people have taken him to deep waters and Werdumis very durable and he can possibly grind a win.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 17 2014 02:57. Posts 13024


  On April 17 2014 00:48 TianYuan wrote:
Show nested quote +


Managed to un-lazy myself and found it in my backsup skype logs ;d

http://predictfights.com/



Ah, ic. I've never heard of that website before.

His next two bets are RDA > Nurmagomedov and Rockhold > Boetsch. RDA is currently +175 or so, while Rockhold is -800 at the cheapest book and -1000 at the most expensive. The website owner doesn't list a breakdown of why he's picking his fights, which is weird. And, while he has good stats, he's only picking 1 fight per card and is picking the obvious favorite (literally). The only fighter he picked at plus odds in his last 30 picks is Anthony Pettis over Benson Henderson, which was a popular pick at the time, especially since Pettis beat him before.

I can tell why he doesn't charge for his picks, as it's pointless. I could use the same strategy as him and have the same record, if not better.

Rekrul is a newb 

TianYuan    Korea (South). Apr 17 2014 04:13. Posts 6817

I'm not really familar with the site, I just was reminded of it and dug it up. However, Iooking through the archives he seems to have more than 1 pick some of the time, and provides reasoning usually. Still, pretty tiny sample with how few fights he actually picks ;/

Example:
http://predictfights.com/josh-barnett-frank-mir-87/
http://predictfights.com/chad-mendes-clay-guida-81/

Seems in the beginning he posted his picks for more of the card, guess he got lazy.

Hm.. Off-suite socks..Last edit: 17/04/2014 04:19

SeanBam   . Apr 17 2014 22:05. Posts 953

Would anyone be interested in a few of us taking one fight each and watching extensive tape on each fighter and coming up with an analysis of the fight?


PuertoRican   United States. Apr 17 2014 22:13. Posts 13024


  On April 17 2014 21:05 SeanBam wrote:
Would anyone be interested in a few of us taking one fight each and watching extensive tape on each fighter and coming up with an analysis of the fight?



There's already a betting thread on Sherdog that does what you want to do. There's a bunch of people who offer various information for each event, and then others who just troll: http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/my-ufc-fox-11-bets-post-yours-2717679/

----------

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$200 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/draft/2475...ox-11-on-ufc-on-fox-11-T-free/203041/

Rekrul is a newb 

goose58   United States. Apr 18 2014 03:36. Posts 871

IMO the reason people are favoring Browne over Werdum is because:

*Better record
*Better recent opponents
*Weighs more, is taller, has slightly longer reach
*Is younger
*Is more hungry for the belt, Werdum has been around the block and probably not as passionate
*His average fight time is 5:40 versus 9:24, which obviously means he finishes fights
*Most of his wins are T/KO
*100% takedown defense

My prediction: They will exchange, Browne slowly chips away, Werdum goes in for the takedown, gets stuffed and countered, rinse and repeat and GG. 20% for werdum to finish via miracle sub or KO.


 
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