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TUF Nations Finale: Bisping vs. Kennedy

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PuertoRican   United States. Apr 13 2014 15:10. Posts 13023

Date: Wednesday, April 16th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 14:15 LP.net / 12:15pm PST / 3:15pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 16:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Michael Bisping (24-5) vs. Tim Kennedy (17-4) (Middleweight)
Patrick Cote (19-8) vs. Kyle Noke (20-6-1) (Welterweight)
Sheldon Westcott (8-1-1) vs. Elias Theodorou (8-0) (TUF Nations Middleweight Final)
Chad Laprise (7-0) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (4-0) (TUF Nations Welterweight Final)
Dustin Poirier (15-3) vs. Akira Corassani (12-3) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Sam Stout (20-9-1) vs. KJ Noons (12-7) (Welterweight)
Sarah Kaufman (16-2) vs. Leslie Smith (6-4-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Ryan Jimmo (18-3) vs. Sean O'Connell (15-4) (Light Heavyweight)
George Roop (14-10-1) vs. Dustin Kimura (11-1) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Mark Bocek (11-5) vs. Mike de la Torre (12-3) (Lightweight)
Nordine Taleb (8-2) vs. Vik Grujic (6-2) (Middleweight)
Richard Walsh (7-1) vs. Chris Indich (5-1) (Welterweight)
Mitch Gagnon (10-2) vs. Tim Gorman (8-2) (Bantamweight)

Other

- Steve Bosse was expected to make his UFC debut against Ryan Jimmo at this event. However, Bosse was forced to pull out of the bout citing an injury. He was replaced by UFC newcomer Sean O'Connell.
- A bantamweight bout between Alex Caceres and Erik Perez was announced for this card in February 2014, but was later cancelled when Caceres suffered an injury in March.
- Shayna Baszler was originally scheduled to make her UFC debut on this card against Sarah Kaufman. However, she had to pull out of the bout due to injury and was replaced by Amanda Nunes. Five days later, Nunes also pulled out of the bout with a thumb injury. Kaufman will now face Leslie Smith in a rematch from their bout at Invicta FC 5: Penne vs. Waterson which ended in a controversial split decision.
- Evan Dunham was expected to face Mark Bocek at the event. However, Dunham pulled out of the bout in the week leading up to the event with an undiscosed injury. Bocek will now face UFC newcomer Mike De La Torre at the event.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 16/04/2014 04:09

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 13 2014 15:20. Posts 13023

First thoughts:

• Bisping > Kennedy
• Cote > Noke (Cote is Canada's second favorite fighter, and Noke hasn't fought since September 2012)
• Westcott vs. Theodorou (TUF contestants, no idea)
• Laprise vs. Mercier (TUF contestants, no idea)
• Poirier > Corassani (dunno why Poirier is even fighting this guy)
• Stout > Noons (Stout has actually improved his skill set over the past year or so, while Noons is still a boxer. Stout is the hometown fighter)
• Kaufman vs. Smith (undecided. Smith is taking this fight on less than 1 weeks notice, but she put up a good fight against Kaufman before. Kaufman is the hometown fighter here)
• Jimmo > O'Connell (O'Connell is a late replacement fight with 2 weeks notice or so)
• Roop vs. Kimura (undecided, but I'm leaning towards Roop is Kimura gets overrated by the bookies again)
• Bocek > Torre (Torre is a late replacement fight with 1 weeks notice or so)
• Taleb vs. Grujic (TUF contestants, no idea)
• Walsh vs. Indich (TUF contestants, no idea)
• Gagnon > Gorman

Rekrul is a newb 

Jamie217   Canada. Apr 13 2014 15:48. Posts 4351

Lol looks like Canada destroyed on TUF


Daut    United States. Apr 13 2014 16:21. Posts 8955

i thought bisping > kennedy too in a 5 rounder due to the trajectory of the chael fight as the 3rd round closed, but a guy i respect a lot is convinced kennedy should be the clear favorite. interesting fight and wanna hear some other thoughts

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 13 2014 17:02. Posts 13023


  On April 13 2014 15:21 Daut wrote:
i thought bisping > kennedy too in a 5 rounder due to the trajectory of the chael fight as the 3rd round closed, but a guy i respect a lot is convinced kennedy should be the clear favorite. interesting fight and wanna hear some other thoughts



Well, I'm not going to try to persuade you, all I can say is to watch the last 5 fights from both guys, pay attention to their own skill sets/cardio/movement/TD/TDD/striking, and pay attention to who their opponents are and what type of skill set their opponents possess.

The great thing about this card is, we'll be able to live bet 9 out of the 13 fights.

Bisping vs. Alan Belcher: http://www.fights4all.com/michael-bis...-vs-alan-belcher-video_d0f32306c.html
Bisping vs. Vitor Belfort: http://www.fights4all.com/vitor-belfo...-michael-bisping-video_a0b321224.html
Bisping vs. Brian Stann: http://www.fights4all.com/michael-bis...g-vs-brian-stann-video_e4d83d225.html
Bisping vs. Chael Sonnen: http://www.fights4all.com/chael-sonne...-michael-bisping-video_180683ff6.html
Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera (Jason Miller was the 5th fight, but couldn't find it): http://www.fights4all.com/michael-bis...-vs-jorge-rivera-video_9c7bf54e0.html

Kennedy vs. Rafael Natal: http://www.fights4all.com/tim-kennedy...-vs-rafael-natal-video_0f508db34.html
Kennedy vs. Roger Gracie: http://www.fights4all.com/tim-kennedy...vs-rogier-gracie-video_589470ba6.html
Kennedy vs. Trevor Smith: http://www.fights4all.com/tim-kennedy...-vs-trevor-smith-video_24ab3a561.html
Kennedy vs. Luke Rockhold: http://www.fights4all.com/luke-rockho...d-vs-tim-kennedy-video_2faaed4a4.html
Kennedy vs. Robbie Lawler: http://www.fights4all.com/tim-kennedy...vs-robbie-lawler-video_d9a2ece0f.html


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Bisping - returning from injury (detached retina), ring rust 354 days
Kennedy - fought Natal with torn quad
Cote - ring rust 396 days
Noke - returning from shoulder injury 2012, ring rust 571 days
Westcott - fought with knee and neck injuries
Corassani - returning from broken nose in 5 places
Smith - UFC debut, short notice in for Shayna Baszler (4 days)
Jimmo - returning from rolled ankle
O’Connell - UFC debut, short notice in for Steve Bossé (1 month)
Roop - returning from TKO loss
Bocek - returning from undisclosed injury, ring rust 515 days
Torre - UFC debut, short notice in for Evan Dunham (4 days)
Gorman - UFC debut, returning from calf injury, ring rust 511 days

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 13/04/2014 17:18

Spitfiree   Bulgaria. Apr 13 2014 18:50. Posts 9634

Feel like Bisping vs Kennedy is whoever has the better odds bet, can go either way


Jamie217   Canada. Apr 14 2014 10:38. Posts 4351

Bisping is currently -175 on 5d


PuertoRican   United States. Apr 14 2014 11:26. Posts 13023

Considering Kennedy went 5 rounds with Rockhold and Jacare, I might just take Kennedy at +165 or better, and then live bet Bisping after rounds 1, 2, or 3, since I assume Kennedy will win at least one of those rounds.

Kennedy vs. Jacare: Jacare won via decision (48-47, 49-46, 48–47)
Kennedy vs. Rockhold: Rockhold won via decision (49–46, 49–46, 49–46)

I'm not blind to Bisping's fighting style, TDD, cardio, etc. But he is returning to the UFC after having been away for 1 year due to an eye injury. Since Bisping can't KO Kennedy, I think it's best to take the guy with more ways to win at plus-odds, and then live bet Bisping when you see a good spot.

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I keep going back and forth on how to bet this fight. My final decision is that I will wait until fight-day to make my pick. I want to see which way the lines shift.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 14/04/2014 21:00

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 14 2014 20:38. Posts 13023

The Sam Stout-KJ Noons fight on Wednesday's UFC show will be contested at welterweight instead of original 155 designation.

"The lightweight bout originally scheduled between Sam Stout and KJ Noons for UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Kennedy has been changed to a welterweight contest. The fighters approached the UFC to request the change in weight class, and it was subsequently approved by both the UFC and the Quebec athletic commission."

----------

Sounds like one guy couldn't make weight for whatever reason, and the other guy agreed to still take the fight, but at welterweight instead. One guy MIGHT be sick or injured, or else changing the weight class doesn't make sense on short notice.

If one guy couldn't fight, neither guy would get paid their show-money. The only way either guy would get their show money is if one of the guys got sick/injured the day before the weigh-ins, or after the weigh-ins. A fight would usually be cancelled altogether or moved to a later date when there's 2-3 days notice.

Basically, this was the best way for one or both fighters to not get in trouble, and still get to fight. They'll get their show-money, win-money, and most likely FOTN bonus.

(Just my opinion, not 100% facts)

Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 15 2014 20:28. Posts 13023

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 15/04/2014 21:57

Stim_Abuser   United States. Apr 15 2014 20:43. Posts 7499


  On April 13 2014 15:21 Daut wrote:
i thought bisping > kennedy too in a 5 rounder due to the trajectory of the chael fight as the 3rd round closed, but a guy i respect a lot is convinced kennedy should be the clear favorite. interesting fight and wanna hear some other thoughts



Is it the brown belt wrestler? that dude has made a lot of sick calls iirc.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

Stim_Abuser   United States. Apr 15 2014 20:48. Posts 7499


  On April 14 2014 10:26 PuertoRican wrote:
Considering Kennedy went 5 rounds with Rockhold and Jacare, I might just take Kennedy at +165 or better, and then live bet Bisping after rounds 1, 2, or 3, since I assume Kennedy will win at least one of those rounds.

Kennedy vs. Jacare: Jacare won via decision (48-47, 49-46, 48–47)
Kennedy vs. Rockhold: Rockhold won via decision (49–46, 49–46, 49–46)

I'm not blind to Bisping's fighting style, TDD, cardio, etc. But he is returning to the UFC after having been away for 1 year due to an eye injury. Since Bisping can't KO Kennedy, I think it's best to take the guy with more ways to win at plus-odds, and then live bet Bisping when you see a good spot.

----------

I keep going back and forth on how to bet this fight. My final decision is that I will wait until fight-day to make my pick. I want to see which way the lines shift.



Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 15 2014 21:57. Posts 13023


  On April 15 2014 19:28 PuertoRican wrote:



30:25 of the video is where they show Bisping and his eye. I didn't know it still looked like that. I wonder if he has taken many shots to the face in sparring, or if he told his guys to not hit him in the face as much so his eye can continue to heal.

Rekrul is a newb 

JonnyCosMo   United States. Apr 15 2014 23:03. Posts 7292

Kennedy should destroy Bisbing

Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 15 2014 23:56. Posts 13023


  On April 15 2014 22:03 JonnyCosMo wrote:
Kennedy should destroy Bisbing






Put your headphones on.

Also, thinking Kennedy will destroy Bisping is kind of a reach. I keep thinking something bad will happen to Bisping's eye at some point, still not sure how to bet the fight, so I'll wait till tomorrow.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Apr 16 2014 00:29. Posts 2662

Real value on Kennedy @ +180 on Sportbet. How can Bisping be favored more than slightly?

I also think Noons is a value @ a pickem against Stout, sucks cuz I like Stout way better. I dont know why Stout agreed to fight @ WW. Clearly favors Noons and the odds didn't change much.

I don't know shit about any of the TUF guys.


PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 00:55. Posts 13023

Added 2 units on Bisping/Kennedy u4½ at +210. I used my Bookmaker FreePlay money on it, so not a big loss either way.

----------

$200 free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/24758...ns-canada-vs-australia-finale-T-free/

----------

Middle Easy tweeted this out (and after fact-checking, it's 100% true), Michael Bisping, perennial top 10 MW, has 0 wins against active UFC fighters. Dan Miller is the closest thing, as he fought last March (at welterweight, and lost), and Bisping beat Miller in 2010.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 16/04/2014 04:42

SeanBam   . Apr 16 2014 12:51. Posts 953

Have a few bets on this fight.

Noke ML
Jimmo / O'Connel over 2.5 (my biggest bet)
Kaufman via Dec.
Bocek ITD.(2nd biggest play)
Bocek, Poirier, Jimmo Kaufman / Smith Over 2.5 for a parlay at -110.

Poirier ITD is -200.. I'm not really sure about this seems pretty steep. i think Poirier wins this easily but i don't know if I'm willing to pay that price.


PuertoRican   United States. Apr 16 2014 14:58. Posts 13023

Bookmaker current lines:

Stout +110
Cote +175
Kimura +130
Gorman +275

----------

Event starts in 17 minutes.

Rekrul is a newb 

SeanBam   . Apr 16 2014 15:39. Posts 953

I think Gagnon relies a little too much on his guillotine attempts. However, I was pleasantly surprised by his striking and offensive / defensive takedowns.


 
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