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UFC FN 39: Nogueira vs. Nelson

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PuertoRican   United States. Apr 06 2014 22:25. Posts 13024

Date: Friday, April 11th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 11:15 LP.net / 9:15am PST / 12:15am EST
Main Card Time (UFC Fight Pass): 13:00 LP.net / 11am PST / 2pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-8-1) vs. Roy Nelson (19-9) (Heavyweight)
Clay Guida (30-14) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (33-7-2) (Featherweight)
John Howard (22-8) vs. Ryan LaFlare (10-0) (Welterweight)
Ramsey Nijem (8-4) vs. Beneil Dariush (7-0) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Jared Rosholt (9-1) vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (16-3-1) (Heavyweight)
Rani Yahya (19-8) vs. Johnny Bedford (19-10-1) (Bantamweight)
Thales Leites (22-4) vs. Trevor Smith (11-4) (Middleweight)
Chris Camozzi (19-7) vs. Andrew Craig (9-2) (Middleweight)
Alan Omer (18-3) vs. Jim Alers (12-1) (Featherweight)

Other

- A flyweight bout between Alptekin Ozkilic and Dustin Ortiz was expected to take place on this card. However on April 3, the fight was cancelled due to injury to Ozkilic.

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Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 10/04/2014 21:44

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 06 2014 22:26. Posts 13024

First thoughts:

Big Nog vs. Nelson (dunno yet)
Guida > Kawajiri
LaFlare > Howard
Dariush > Nijem
Rosholt vs. Omielanczuk (dunno yet)
Yahya > Bedford
Leites > Smith
Camozzi > Craig
Omer vs. Alers (dunno yet)

Rekrul is a newb 

Minsk   United States. Apr 07 2014 01:13. Posts 1558

Do you think Thailes Leites is a good bet?


PuertoRican   United States. Apr 07 2014 01:54. Posts 13024


  On April 07 2014 00:13 Minsk wrote:
Do you think Thailes Leites is a good bet?



Not at -400.

Leites should win, but he's not a great fighter imo, just better than Trevor Smith. Also, this event is in Abu Dhabi, so there could be a couple fighters who have jet-lag and cardio issues; hell, all of them could end up having cardio and let-lag issues cuz of the long flight and the warm weather. The venue for this event is an open arena, which means the event is basically outside.

As of right now, the line I like the most is Camozzi -135. I'm not sure if I'll bet this card though, cuz there's no live-betting available for any of the fights, and because of the travel issue I mentioned above.

Rekrul is a newb 

Baalim   Mexico. Apr 07 2014 03:02. Posts 34246

Nogueira cant KO nelson, he cant take him down so he will have to throw down with him and Nogeira es very easy to hit and has a weak chin. Nelson by KO

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

Twisted    Netherlands. Apr 07 2014 13:57. Posts 10422

You've got these numbers wrong the past few times . This is fight night 40.


Daut    United States. Apr 07 2014 14:41. Posts 8955


  On April 07 2014 02:02 Baalim wrote:
Nogueira cant KO nelson, he cant take him down so he will have to throw down with him and Nogeira es very easy to hit and has a weak chin. Nelson by KO



nog still has a pretty good chin. if you notice when cain KOed him he seemed to recover afterwards very fast. which is the problem with this fight. both of these guys are too good at taking punishment. going to be sad to watch them both pile up more brain damage.

NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 07 2014 16:19. Posts 13024


  On April 07 2014 12:57 Twisted wrote:
You've got these numbers wrong the past few times . This is fight night 40.



Feel free to make the thread yourself next time.

Rekrul is a newb 

Baalim   Mexico. Apr 07 2014 17:52. Posts 34246


  On April 07 2014 13:41 Daut wrote:
Show nested quote +



nog still has a pretty good chin. if you notice when cain KOed him he seemed to recover afterwards very fast. which is the problem with this fight. both of these guys are too good at taking punishment. going to be sad to watch them both pile up more brain damage.


But Nelsons haymaker is many times stronger than anything Cain can throw and Nog has probably the worst striking defence in the division, eventually he is going to land it.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 07 2014 18:28. Posts 13024




^ Big Nog's training camp from 3 days ago.

----------

Facts

• Big Nog is returning from an elbow injury; ring rust 307 days
• Big Nog is 37 years old and has been through a ton of wars in his career. He is 2-3 in his last 5 fights, and he was finished in those 3 losses (Werdum submission, Mir submission, Velasquez TKO)
• Nelson is 37 years old, but he has the best chin in all of MMA and has only been finished in 1 fight (October 2008, vs. Andrei Arlovski)
• Big Nog has never lost 2 fights in a row. (he lost his last fight)
• Big Nog height: 6'3. reach: 77 inches
• Nelson's height: 6'0. reach: 73
• Big Nog is better than Nelson in every aspect of MMA, but he's slowed down over the years and is getting finished in his losses.
• Big Nog has only fought 8 times since 2008, and is 4-4 during that time. All 4 losses were via finish (TKO loss to Mir, TKO loss to Velasquez, Submission loss to Mir, Submission loss to Werdum)
• Big Nog has the better cardio.
• Nelson has only finished 1 guy outside of Round 1 in the past 6+ years, which was Mirko CroCop in October 2011. Nelson is known as the guy who either finishes an opponent in Round 1, or he doesn't win the fight. Since he throws power in every shot, his chances of knocking anyone out past Round 1 goes down considerably.
• Nelson: Out of 28 fights, he has fought 3 times outside of the USA, and only 1 of those times has been while he's been in the UFC, which was he fought and loss to Stipe Miocic in Canada (June 2013).
• Big Nog: Most of his 44 fights were in Japan, while the rest were in the USA, Brazil, and a couple other countries.
• Nelson is on a 2-fight losing streak, which were against more technical strikers with good movement (Cormier and Miocic). He's good at beating guys who aren't quick on their feet, who are easy to back up against the cage, and who aren't able to take him down (Kongo, Mitrione, Herman, Struve, etc.)
• Big Nog has 34 wins: 3 by KO/TKO, 21 by Submission, 10 by Decision. His last 2 losses were via Submission, where he ended up getting his arm broken in one fight and needed surgery both times that kept him out of action for 11 months after each loss.
• Nelson has 19 wins: 12 by KO/TKO, 5 by Submission, 2 by Decision. His last 2 losses were via 3-Round Decision's to more technical strikers with better speed and movement in Cormier and Miocic.


  On April 07 2014 00:54 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +



Also, this event is in Abu Dhabi, so there could be a couple fighters who have jet-lag and cardio issues; hell, all of them could end up having cardio and let-lag issues cuz of the long flight and the warm weather. The venue for this event is an open arena, which means the event is basically outside.


Weather.com shows an early weather sign of 93 degrees Fahrenheit / 34 degrees Celsius, in Abu Dhabi on Friday.
http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/AEXX0001

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 07/04/2014 18:51

Raidern   Brasil. Apr 07 2014 20:35. Posts 4243

Wtf is arona doing there. Hes supposed to be surfing.

im a regular at nl5 

Twisted    Netherlands. Apr 07 2014 20:40. Posts 10422


  On April 07 2014 15:19 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +



Feel free to make the thread yourself next time.


Was just a heads-up, I should've PM-ed, apologies. Your threads are greatly appreciated!


Baalim   Mexico. Apr 08 2014 20:05. Posts 34246

most of those stats are absolutely meaningless and Big Nog definitelly isnt better in every aspect of the game than Nelson, Big Nog is a terrible natural striker, he has no power, he is slow, stiff and has no head movement so he is easy as fuck to hit, he is also a very shitty wrestler probably worse than Nelson too.

His only real advantage here is the cardio, the only way Nog can win this is if he manages to outbox Nelson from the outside tiring him out and not eating the haymaker which wont be an easy task considering he doesnt have good takedowns or kicks to threaten Nelson.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

PuertoRican   United States. Apr 09 2014 01:20. Posts 13024



----------

FightNetwork's $500 Kountermove free roll: http://www.kountermove.com/join/24472...-night-39-minotauro-vs-nelson-T-free/

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 09/04/2014 02:13

Nazgul    Netherlands. Apr 09 2014 05:52. Posts 7080

arona pls

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

alejandicto   . Apr 09 2014 09:56. Posts 865

I just make a parlay on Nelson by KO and Guida at +250


RichardG   . Apr 09 2014 14:05. Posts 3

Nog is going to lose his head tho

IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIM BAAAAAAAAAAAACK wwwyoutubecom RichardGamingo 

Minsk   United States. Apr 10 2014 00:05. Posts 1558

Took Nelson, fully agree with all this.


alejandicto   . Apr 10 2014 00:44. Posts 865

Howard is at +305, what do you think about that? I am thinking on taking that bet too. Not sure tho


Minsk   United States. Apr 10 2014 00:44. Posts 1558

I think Nelsons biggest weakness is his form, and Noguiera wont really be able to take advantage of it in his current form.


 
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