PuertoRican United States. Mar 17 2014 16:16. Posts 13041
Date: Sunday, March 23rd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 15:30 LP.net / 1:30pm PST / 4:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 16:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card Time (Fox Sports 1): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)
- Gleison Tibau was expected to face Mairbek Taisumov at the event. However, Tibau pulled out of the bout citing injury and was replaced by Michel Prazeres.
Rekrul is a newb
Last edit: 23/03/2014 13:24
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 17 2014 17:11. Posts 13041
First thoughts:
• Shogun > Henderson (Aside from Shogun knocking out Te Huna, neither guy has looked good for a long time. Shogun has home field advantage this time. Either Hendo's chin finally breaks, or Shogun wins a decision. This is a 5-round fight.)
• Dolloway > Ferreira (Wrestler vs. striker. Dolloway can win easily on the ground, Ferreira can win on the feet. Ferreira has cardio issues.)
• Parke > Santos (Santos is just a good BJJ player, nothing more. His opponent in the TUF Brazil finale choked against him and also gassed. Parke is the better overall fighter.)
• Maldonado vs. Villante (Hard fight to pick. Villante is the better MMA fighter, as he has superior striking skills, wrestling, and BJJ. The tricky thing is that Maldonado has one of the two best chins at Light Heavyweight, and he fights like a zombie. Maldonado has home field advantage, so mass punches just might work.)
• Prazeres vs. Taisumov (dunno)
• Jason vs. Siler (Another good fight. Siler has the better cardio and has more heart, and he's very aggressive in the grappling department. Jason probably has the better striking, and he also has home field advantage. I'd look to get Siler at +3.5 points or take the Over.)
• Chope > Brandao (I liked what I saw from Chope in his debut against Holloway. He's tall as fuck, and he was very aggressive. Brandao didn't train at Jackson's MMA for this fight and said he hasn't had time to focus a lot for this fight. Brandao is done if he can't win in round 1. Maybe bet Chope +3.5 or Chope ML mixed with Brandao in round 1.)
• Markes vs. Santos (dunno)
• Formiga vs. Jorgensen (Another hard fight to pick. Formiga is so overrated, while Jorgensen hasn't looked good for awhile, and this is a "loser leaves town" fight for both of them. If Jorgensen doesn't finish the fight in round 1, Formiga will probably win a decision. If Formiga is the favorite, I'd take Jorgensen +3.5 points with Formiga wins by decision.)
• Perpetuo vs. Robertson (dunno)
• Castro vs. Lahat (dunno)
• Barroso vs. Stringer (dunno)
8 fighters returning from a TKO loss, might be a record.
Henderson - returning from TKO loss (ugly head kick KO)
Santos - small ring rust 258 days
Prazeres - short notice 3 weeks (in for Gleison Tibau)
Jason - returning from TKO loss (ugly head kick KO)
Brandao - returning from TKO loss (ugly TKO that had a late stoppage)
Chope - returning from TKO loss
Markes - returning from TKO loss
Formiga - returning from TKO loss (ugly KO)
Robertson - returning from undisclosed injury (pulled out of Zeferino fight), ring rust 281 days
Perpetuo - returning from TKO loss
Lahat - UFC debut
Pepey - returning from TKO loss
Stringer - UFC debut
Hendo didnt look bad against Machida and Rashad, who are tops, and both were split decisions. He got smashed by belfort, but he is a beast. On the other hand, Shogun looked terrible in last fights, only with tehuna looked good. So, I will definitely bet Hendo for that odds.
those are the best SU bets imo
Dollaway line prob will get better, Parke is getting worse for sure, Shogun line Im not sure, prob will stay around -250
Dont listen to anything I say
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Minsk United States. Mar 20 2014 18:10. Posts 1558
Im not so sure henderson at +180 is a good bet, to me he has been slowly degrading and finally his age is catching up to him, I usually say its hard to get info in short fights but he looked beyond terrible vs Belfort.
Belfort is no monster, its a monster if you try to straight box him at close range, but he is garbage if you grind him, Couture showed the world how to beat Belfort 15 years ago and there goes Henderson trying to force an incredibly telegraphed right haymaker with no setup whatsoever and he obviously got easily KOd, if the same Henderson shows against Shogun he will get knocked out again.
Same reason why im not sure a bet on over 2.5 is a good idea, Hendersons chin is probalby still weak after that and Shogun has never had a great chin and both can easily end it any time and people will just remember they went the distance the last fight.
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Minsk United States. Mar 20 2014 21:28. Posts 1558
I agree with most of that,
but Henderson's never been knocked out until Vitor Belfort and Shogun wasn't knocked out in their last fight. Its going to be hard to repeat that much damage. I do think Shoguns chances go way up in a 5 round fight and Belfort is the definition of a monster. His focus is on another level right now.
Its bad when guys with iron chin get KOed, think of Anderson Silva, how frail his chin was in his 2nd fight with Weidman, he used to expose his chin and take shots like nothing and suddenly he is unconscious for a split second with a slight tap from the clinch in their second fight?
Monster is an abstract term, Belfort is very dangerous but he got KOd with ease by Silva and he was no threat to Jones on the stand up, considering his TRT rage strenght and his hand speed he should have been more dangeorus to Jones but he never managed to get in range, and he has always been relatively easy to deal with if you dont just fight into his style.
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Last edit: 21/03/2014 02:14
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Minsk United States. Mar 21 2014 13:48. Posts 1558
Henderson is a bit diffrent in the sense that he has an iron chin from getting punched in the head and AS had never been knocked out because it was really hard to hit him, so when he finally got hurt it would make sense a fear appeared. Henderson's been hurt plenty of times, its not natural for him to collapse to it. If he does get finished it would be to his degradation from age I think. I do think I should have waited until weigh-ins to take a look at him before placing the bet.
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PuertoRican United States. Mar 21 2014 14:34. Posts 13041
On March 21 2014 12:48 Minsk wrote:
Henderson is a bit diffrent in the sense that he has an iron chin from getting punched in the head and AS had never been knocked out because it was really hard to hit him, so when he finally got hurt it would make sense a fear appeared. Henderson's been hurt plenty of times, its not natural for him to collapse to it. If he does get finished it would be to his degradation from age I think. I do think I should have waited until weigh-ins to take a look at him before placing the bet.
Hendo always looks the same during weigh-ins. Since this is the last time he'll be on TRT, I would focus on how he looks for his next fight.
Hendo is the last guy who was granted a TRT license before the new rules were put into place, so that's good for him. Other fighters on TRT are supposed to sit out for awhile so their bodies can get used to not having the extra TRT in them or something, and also so they can pass future drug tests for their next fights.
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If you're bored, there's a Bellator MMA event on tonight (Friday). It starts at 4pm PST/7pm EST.
Brandon Girtz is supposed to be the favorite according to bettors and fans, yet he's the underdog on 5dimes and Bookmaker, so I followed other bettors and put a bet on Girtz to win. Girtz is even the favorite on Kountermove, so this is probably one of the many times online bookies undervalue fighters in Bellator.
United States. Mar 18 2014 14:12. Posts 2039
