UFC FN 37: Gustafsson vs. Manuwa

Date: Saturday, March 8th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 11:55 LP.net / 9:55am PST / 12:55pm EST
Main Card Time (UFC Fight Pass): 14:00 LP.net / 12pm PST / 3pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Alexander Gustafsson (15-2) vs. Jimi Manuwa (14-0) (Light Heavyweight)
Michael Johnson (14-8) vs. Melvin Guillard (31-12-2) (Lightweight)
Brad Pickett (23-8) vs. Neil Seery (13-9) (Flyweight)
Gunnar Nelson (11-0-1) vs. Omari Akhmedov (12-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Cyrille Diabate (19-9-1) vs. Ilir Latifi (7-3) (Light Heavyweight)
Luke Barnatt (7-0) vs. Mats Nilsson (11-2-1) (Middleweight)
Brad Scott (9-2) vs. Claudio Henrique da Silva (9-1) (Middleweight)
Igor Araujo (24-6) vs. Danny Mitchell (14-4-1) (Welterweight)
Phil Harris (22-11) vs. Louis Gaudinot (6-3) (Flyweight)

Other

- Ross Pearson was expected to face Melvin Guillard in a rematch at the event. However, Pearson pulled out of the bout citing a knee injury and was replaced by Michael Johnson.
- Brad Pickett was expected to make his Flyweight debut against Ian McCall on this card. However, on February 13, it was announced that McCall had pulled out of the bout and was replaced by promotional newcomer Neil Seery.
- Davey Grant vs. Roland Delorme was cancelled after Grant tore his meniscus sometime after the weigh-in. Both fighters were awarded their show-money.

First thoughts:

• Gustafsson > Manuwa (I'll bet betting Manuwa)
• Johnson > Guillard
• Pickett > Seery
• Nelson > Akhmedov
• Latifi > Diabate
• Barnatt > Nilsson
• Scott vs. da Silva (dunno)
• Grant > Delorme
• Araujo vs. Mitchell (dunno)
• Gaudinot > Harris

manuwa is a really good striker and has good top position GNP, but terrible conditioning and has never fought anyone. 5 round fight i think gus finishes him a lot.

Super excited for this card, been waiting to see gunnar for a long time.

No idea why People pick Johnson over Guillard? What am I missing? Sure it's a somewhat even fight but Guillard seems really hard to win over standing unless you're Cowboy or better and Johnson just straight up isn't.

On March 04 2014 23:15 Daut wrote: manuwa is a really good striker and has good top position GNP, but terrible conditioning and has never fought anyone. 5 round fight i think gus finishes him a lot.

I have a whole bunch of random bets including straight bets and parlays that needs Gus to finish Manuwa by sup, preferably in round 3 or later...

michael johnson has a really long reach and is a pretty good striker. i thought really highly of tony ferguson's striking and johnson handled him. was one of those fights where i thought it was a clear mismatch and was completely wrong so it stands out in my mind. basically has only lost when he gets outgrappled. not sure he can deal with guillards speed, but he can definitely win a decision outboxing him or maybe by dropping and finishing him as well.

i like gus by sub. think he gets it to the ground and finishes him a lotttt.

A lot of bias in this video, but hey, I didn't expect anything less. Always good to hear pro's picks though.

On March 05 2014 11:16 Daut wrote: michael johnson has a really long reach and is a pretty good striker. i thought really highly of tony ferguson's striking and johnson handled him. was one of those fights where i thought it was a clear mismatch and was completely wrong so it stands out in my mind. basically has only lost when he gets outgrappled. not sure he can deal with guillards speed, but he can definitely win a decision outboxing him or maybe by dropping and finishing him as well. i like gus by sub. think he gets it to the ground and finishes him a lotttt.

Johnson also excels in the cage when he doesn't have to worry about being taken down. Johnson is the wrestler in this fight, with better striking and movement. Guillard hits hard but his chin is suspect these days. Also, these two used to be on the same team (Blackzilians), so Johnson knows what to expect from Guillard, especially since Guillard hasn't improved over the years.

As for Gustafsson/Manuwa, I'll be taking Manuwa at +360 or better, along with over 2.5 rounds at +115 or better. Both bets cover Manuwa, while I think Gustafsson will avoid Monica's power early, which means it will go to round 2 at least. Manuwa doesn't go deep in fights, but that's cuz he easily beats the guys he's supposed to beat.

Managed to get $762.50 on Gus a long time ago at -305. Just ended up betting Manuwa +360 for the $38 freeroll on Gus. That's a really nice freeroll on a -450 favorite.

I also bet Diabate -110 against Latifi for $220. Rather big bet considering I don't know more about Latifi than what I saw against Mousasi. I actually think that even though he is 40 years old Diabate is quite underrated and I like him in this fight.

On March 05 2014 21:17 Nazgul wrote: Managed to get $762.50 on Gus a long time ago at -305. Just ended up betting Manuwa +360 for the $38 freeroll on Gus. That's a really nice freeroll on a -450 favorite. I also bet Diabate -110 against Latifi for $220. Rather big bet considering I don't know more about Latifi than what I saw against Mousasi. I actually think that even though he is 40 years old Diabate is quite underrated and I like him in this fight.

I'm not gonna pretend like I know much about Latifi, cuz I don't. However, I do know that he took the fight versus Mousasi on a few days notice, which meant he didn't have a full camp and had to cut a lot of weight at a fast rate.

For this weekends UFC event, both Latifi and Gustafsson have had full camps and they have trained together that entire time, and Latifi's weight loss is on schedule and he only needs to lose 12 more pounds or so (this is what I read a couple days ago).

I expect Latifi to be aggressive in this fight, as he has less to worry about here. From what I've been reading, people are hyping up Diabate a lot, and keep mentioning his ground game, as if he's some slick grappler... Kinda sad, but whatever.

Yea I knew that too so that was included in the evaluation. I just was entirely unimpressed even considering the short notice.

Yea the main thing with Latiff in the Mousasi fight is he looked like he had zero idea how to close the distance. And Diabeetus has even longer reach than Mousasi and moves better as well so closing that reach should be even harder. So I like the bet on cyrile, but then again im an mma betting whale.

just saw manuwa's fight records, all TKOs and 1 sub

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimi_Manuwa

Also has home advantage vs gustaffson.

Any analysis on why gustaffson is a heavy fav? PR

I think I've more or less single handedly bet down Gustafsson by Sub from 5.5 to ~4 or so on Unibet. Assuming he wins by sub and some of the favorites actually win I'll make a ton of money. If he doesn't I'll probably lose like 1k or something.

Gustafsson is better then Manuwa at everything. Manuwa might bench a bit more and he might kick or strike harder, but I'm not sure about that.

Gus should have a big advantage in wrestling and BJJ and he has better footwork and probably cardio so I assume it'll go like this.

Round 1-2, Gus runs around jabbing Manuwa in the face while trying to steal rounds, possibly by takedowns.

Round 3+, Manuwa has no power left, Gus finishes him. Probably by a RNC.

On March 05 2014 21:17 Nazgul wrote: Managed to get $762.50 on Gus a long time ago at -305. Just ended up betting Manuwa +360 for the $38 freeroll on Gus. That's a really nice freeroll on a -450 favorite. I also bet Diabate -110 against Latifi for $220. Rather big bet considering I don't know more about Latifi than what I saw against Mousasi. I actually think that even though he is 40 years old Diabate is quite underrated and I like him in this fight.

Think a guy I used to train BJJ with had been to the gym Latifi used to work out with. A bunch of very big guys who liked to grapple. New gym: Allstars with actually MMA-fighters rather then amateur wrestlers and BJJ-bluebelts.

@MMAjunkieMatt 3m
Spent time w/ Cyrille Diabate earlier, who told me his fight at UFC Fight Night 37 in London will be his last. Story soon at MMAjunkie.

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This should make everyone backing Latifi more confident in their bets. Statistically speaking, MMA fighters rarely retire after winning a fight. Aside from Chris Lytle, I can't remember the last guy who did so.

On March 06 2014 14:35 jvilla777 wrote: just saw manuwa's fight records, all TKOs and 1 sub http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimi_Manuwa Also has home advantage vs gustaffson. Any analysis on why gustaffson is a heavy fav? PR

I don't like writing breakdowns, so I'll just write down some pros and cons for both guys:

Gustafsson

• Better cardio
• Better MMA boxing
• Average kicks
• Above average MMA wrestling
• Knows what it's like to go 5 rounds without stopping
• Height & Reach advantage: 6'5 feet tall, 81 inch reach
• Faced the better competition

Manuwa

• Better kickboxer imo
• More power in his strikes
• Above average take down defense
• He's the hometown boy, which gives him a slight edge if it's a close fight that goes to a decision, and he won't have to travel
• Has shown to slow down in the second round, and this will be his first 5-round fight
• Height & Reach disadvantage: 6'1 feet tall, 79 inch reach
• He's apparently terrible when someone puts him on his back, but I haven't judged this for myself
• He's black
• If you take Manuwa, you might as well bet his ITD line at +485, or his KO/TKO line at +545. His money line is +375, but it's highly unlikely he'll be able to win a 5-round decision here.

Yea he probably has better kicks. Gus has some awkward ass kicks. Although they're getting better too.