UFC FN 36: Machida vs. Mousasi

Date: Saturday, February 15th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 18:30 LP.net / 4:30pm PST / 7:30pm EST
Main Card Time (Fox Sports 1): 21:30 LP.net / 7:30pm PST / 10:30pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Lyoto Machida (20-4) vs. Gegard Mousasi (34-3-2) (Middleweight)
Ronaldo Souza (19-3) vs. Francis Carmont (22-7) (Middleweight)
Erick Silva (15-4) vs. Takenori Sato (17-8-7) (Welterweight)
Viscardi Andrade (17-5) vs. Nicholas Musoke (11-2) (Welterweight)
Charles Oliveira (16-4) vs. Andy Ogle (9-3) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Cristiano Marcello (13-5) vs. Joe Proctor (8-2) (Lightweight)
Rodrigo Damm (11-6) vs. Ivan Jorge (25-3) (Lightweight)
Francisco Trinaldo (13-3) vs. Jesse Ronson (13-3) (Lightweight)
Iuri Alcantara (28-5) vs. Wilson Reis (17-4) (Bantamweight)
Felipe Arantes (15-6-1) vs. Maximo Blanco (9-5-1) (Featherweight)
Ildemar Alcantara (19-6) vs. Albert Tumenov (12-1) (Welterweight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade (22-0) vs. Zubair Tuhugov (15-3) (Featherweight)

Other

- Returning veteran Nate Loughran was expected to face Erick Silva at the event. However, Loughran was forced out of the bout with an injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Takenori Sato.
- Zubair Tuhugov was expected to face Thiago Tavares at this event. However, Tavares was forced to pulled out due to an undisclosed injury, and was replaced by UFC newcomer Douglas Silva de Andrade.

First thoughts:

• Machida > Mousasi (Over 3.5 rounds at -155 with a small hedge of Machida by KO at +230. Also, I think there's value of this fight going to a draw at +10500, and all you have to do is lay $1 to get a nice return)
• Souza > Carmont (Everyones first thought: "OMG, Jacare is going to crush this kid!" My thought: Carmont knows Jacare is dangerous, so he'll fight defensively and from the outside with kicks. My pick is "NOT Jacare inside the distance" at +140)
• Silva > Sato (never heard of Sato before, but he's +600 at 5dimes, so maybe worth laying down a few bucks)
• Andrade > Musoke (Musoke is the underdog according to the books, but is the favorite according to multiple bettors. I'll take Andrade at -135, as it's a close fight and he's fighting in his home country)
• Oliveira > Ogle (Not worth betting, unless you do a prop on Oliveira)
• Proctor > Marcello
• Jorge > Damm
• Ronson > Trinaldo
• Alcantara > Reis
• Blanco > Arantes (Blanco will probably use his wrestling)
• Tumenov > Alcantara
• Andrade vs. Tuhugov (Andrade took this fight on 2 weeks notice, due to Thiago Tavares pulling out. Never seen either guy fight)

Lyoto vs gayhard is a very interesting technical match up. I for one don't think Mousasi's mma striking is anywhere near as good as his fights in k-1 would indicate. He's generally looked good but not overly impressive striking in MMA.Will be interesting to see him fight his first high level opponent since losing to King Mo a couple years ago. Will also be interesting to see Machida's fight IQ and if he elects to take it to the ground. He should have a decent edge in wrestling.

That said I think this fight is likely to be boring as shit in and of its self. It will be interesting to see how the fight unfolds, but I expect both to be hesitant and passive.

Jacare vs Carmont... omg Jacare is gonna crush this kid.

How good is Proctor? I'm thinking of putting some money on him vs Marcello since Marcello doesn't seem very good.

Also thinking there might be some value in the Rus-crew.


Oh, and I have a big bet on Mousasi, still think he's better then Machida and that Machida tends to give away wins for no apparent reason a lot. Seems like he's allergic against offence vs anyone who's good standing from time to time.

So post 2nd Shogun fight:

Refused to hit Rampage in the face for 2 rounds and owned him the last round. "lost" a fight he won due to not hitting ppl in the face.

Kicked Randy in the face. Randy is a legend but he does not have scary stand up and had no good wins since 2007.

Got chocked by Jones in a fight where he actually tried and looked pretty good.

KO'd Bader, that's good although Bader has been looking so-so for a long time.

Split vs Old man Henderson, although Hedo is very good in a lot of ways his style fits Machida very well.

A "loss" to Davis in a fight he should've won if he would've been more aggressive.

A Ko of Munoz, who I've never figured out if he's good or not (also got head kicked Ko'd by Hamill....)

Mousasi on the other hand has fought worse competition and also given up a fight he should've won (Mo) but except for that one he tends to win fights one way or another. Given the odds I think it's an ok bet, although I'm not as glad about it as I was a week ago.

how much you bet on Mousasi???

I made a small bet on Mousasi at +225 with Nazgul.

Machida is physically and technically superior but Mousasi is one of the best tacticians in MMA, i like the odds of him figuring out a way to neutralize machida

Machida at -225 or the other guy at +175?

Hmm wat to do

Haven't read it yet, but here's Jack Slack's breakdown of Mousasi: http://fightland.vice.com/blog/jack-slack-the-shape-shifting-gegard-mousasi

Nice to see his stuff being posted on VICE.com. Not sure if it's just a user submitted article, or if he's an actual staff member on that website.

I think Trinaldo will murder Ronson

Any idea if a win would potentially put Machida as the candidate for MW title fight ?

yes, Dana White said if he wins he is the next in line
but I don't think he's going to win, Mousasi has really good technique, think it will be a boring fight tho

machida vs mousasi is impossible to bet on. do you want to bet steep odds on a guy who throws 5 strikes a round and gets in close fights? or on a guy who was taken down 5 times in one round by KEITH JARDINE? PASS

Just bet on over 3.5 rounds

On February 12 2014 09:39 PuertoRican wrote: Haven't read it yet, but here's Jack Slack's breakdown of Mousasi: http://fightland.vice.com/blog/jack-slack-the-shape-shifting-gegard-mousasi Nice to see his stuff being posted on VICE.com. Not sure if it's just a user submitted article, or if he's an actual staff member on that website.

I said something alike to Daut, Mousasi has the highest fighting IQ ive seen in all MMA, his weakness is being simply outwrestled especially from something more powerful like Mo.

Machida is faster, stronger, has better reflexes and on paper is overall way superior, but I think theres a good chance Mousasi figures out a way to destroy his very peculiar striking game, Machida is also somewhat of a tactician too, but more of an instinctive one, he will measure the opponents range and capitalize on timing very well, but that simply wont work against somebody who is exploiting constantly all of your weakness, Machida simply wont know why the fuck he is getting owned.

I think Machidas better chance of winning this is to mix it up a lot with wrestling, if he comes out all karateka and shit like I suspect he will be, he will be relying on a flashy KO to win this because if it goes to a technical striking grind, Mousasi win.

On February 12 2014 20:10 Baalim wrote: Show nested quote + On February 12 2014 09:39 PuertoRican wrote: Haven't read it yet, but here's Jack Slack's breakdown of Mousasi: http://fightland.vice.com/blog/jack-slack-the-shape-shifting-gegard-mousasi Nice to see his stuff being posted on VICE.com. Not sure if it's just a user submitted article, or if he's an actual staff member on that website. I said something alike to Daut, Mousasi has the highest fighting IQ ive seen in all MMA, his weakness is being simply outwrestled especially from something more powerful like Mo. Machida is faster, stronger, has better reflexes and on paper is overall way superior, but I think theres a good chance Mousasi figures out a way to destroy his very peculiar striking game, Machida is also somewhat of a tactician too, but more of an instinctive one, he will measure the opponents range and capitalize on timing very well, but that simply wont work against somebody who is exploiting constantly all of your weakness, Machida simply wont know why the fuck he is getting owned. I think Machidas better chance of winning this is to mix it up a lot with wrestling, if he comes out all karateka and shit like I suspect he will be, he will be relying on a flashy KO to win this because if it goes to a technical striking grind, Mousasi win.

I started following Mousasi somewhat late in his career, even though he's only 28. Even though I've watched a lot of his older fights on YouTube, the first actual LIVE fight I've seen him in was his match against Jardine in April 2011. In his last 5 fights, I haven't been impressed at all with him, which is why I'm interested to finally see Mousasi against a legit top 5 fighter who isn't new in his career or past his prime.

I already know what Machida has to offer, but I hope to see something "extra" from Mousasi this Saturday, or else I'll continue to think he's a good fighter, but not great. Also, it will be interesting to see what type of fight Mousasi will put up against a well rounded fighter in the UFC who's also a good wrestler.

If anyone gets the finish in this fight, I think it will be Machida. If Mousasi starts out-striking Machida, Machida will get on his bycicle and avoid getting hit as much as possible. I don't like Mousasi's speed, so I'm wondering how he'll be able to handle a perfectly timed head kick.

Mousasi via decision is +490, and his money line is starting to get better since more money is coming in on Machida.

Mousasi is some random guys favorite fighter on Sherdog, so he made a thread with a bunch of "funny" stuff related to Mousasi. Some of it is worth checking out real quick.

http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/g...hread-unintentional-hilarity-2670619/

that thread is great now I want him to win