UFC 161: Evans vs. Henderson

Date: Saturday, June 15th
Preliminary Card (Facebook): 18:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST Facebook stream
Preliminary Card (FX): 19:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card Time (Fuel TV): 21:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: Prelims are Live on FX and Facebook/YouTube - http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)





Main Card (PPV)

Rashad Evans (17-3-1) vs. Dan Henderson (29-9) (Light Heavyweight)
Roy Nelson (19-7) vs. Stipe Miocic (9-1) (Heavyweight)
Ryan Jimmo (17-2) vs. Igor Pokrajac (25-9) (Light Heavyweight)
Alexis Davis (13-5) vs. Rosi Sexton (13-2) (Women's Bantamweight)
Pat Barry (8-5) vs. Shawn Jordan (14-4) (Heavyweight)

Preliminary Card (FX)

Jake Shields (27-6-1) vs. Tyron Woodley (11-1) (Welterweight)
Sam Stout (19-8-1) vs. James Krause (19-4) (Lightweight)
Sean Pierson (13-6) vs. Kenny Robertson (12-2) (Welterweight)
Roland Delorme (8-1) vs. Edwin Figueroa (9-2) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (Facebook)

Mitch Clarke (9-2) vs. John Maguire (18-5) (Lightweight)
Yves Jabouin (18-8) vs. Dustin Pague (11-7) (Bantamweight)

Other

- The event was expected to feature an Interim Bantamweight Championship bout between the current champion Renan Barao, and former WEC Bantamweight Champion and top contender Eddie Wineland. However, on May 21 it was confirmed that Barão had pulled out of the bout, citing a foot injury. With, Barao's departure, Wineland was removed from the card as well. As a result, the scheduled bout between Rashad Evans and Dan Henderson has been moved up the card and serve as the headliner in a three round bout.
- TJ Waldburger was expected to face Sean Pierson at the event. However, Waldburger was pulled from the event and replaced by Kenny Robertson.
- Stipe Miocic was scheduled to face returning veteran Soa Palelei on the undercard, but due to the change in the main event, UFC bolstered the main card and replaced Palelei with Roy Nelson. As a result, Palelei was removed from the card, but is expected to attend fight week activities as potential replacement for either two heavyweight fights at the event.
- Isaac Vallie-Flagg was expected to face Sam Stout at the event. However, Vallie-Flagg was forced out with a back injury and was replaced by James Krause.
- Antonio Rogerio Nogueira was expected to face Maurício Rua in a rematch in the co-main event. However, Nogueira pulled out of the bout in the days leading up to the event citing a back injury. Chael Sonnen was briefly linked as a replacement for Nogueira. An alleged visa issue created a problem for Sonnen to get into Canada, resulting in Rua being pulled from the event altogether.

Multiple injuries has turned this card into just being average.

• Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson
• Roy Nelson vs. Stipe Miocic
• Ryan Jimmo vs. Igor Pokrajac
• Alexis Davis vs. Rosi Sexton
• Pat Barry vs. Shawn Jordan
• Jake Shields vs. Tyron Woodley
• Sam Stout vs. James Krause
• Sean Pierson vs. Kenny Robertson
• Roland Delorme vs. Edwin Figueroa
• Mitch Clarke vs. John Maguire
• Yves Jabouin vs. Dustin Pague

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As usual, the following picks are my opening thoughts prior to doing any major research.

• Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson: Undecided atm.
• Roy Nelson > Stipe Miocic: Nelson via KO.
• Ryan Jimmo > Igor Pokrajac: Jimmo via decision. (Home country + needs to rebound from his last loss + PokerJack will look to end the fight early.)
• Alexis Davis > Rosi Sexton: Davis ITD, probably via submission.
• Pat Barry vs. Shawn Jordan: Undecided atm. I'll have a big bet on "won't go 3 rounds."
• Tyron Woodley > Jake Shields: Woodley ML on fight day, and various prop bets. (Shields by decision/submission, Woodley by KO.)
• James Krause > Sam Stout: Stout is the favorite and hometown boy, but I'm a big Krause fan. Not sure how to bet this fight yet.
• Sean Pierson > Kenny Robertson: Pierson by decision. I think Pierson will try to keep the distance and point fight.
• Roland Delorme vs. Edwin Figueroa: Undecided atm.
• John Maguire > Mitch Clarke: Maguire via submission, probably round 1.
• Yves Jabouin vs. Dustin Pague: Undecided atm.

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The two matches that people will use to compare Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson are:

Evans vs. Nogueira: http://www.fights4all.com/rashed-evan...rogerio-nogueira-video_a1fad42c6.html
Evans vs. Rampage: http://www.fights4all.com/rampage-jac...-vs-rashad-evans-video_9d45344ee.html

Rashad apparently broke his hand in round 1 vs. Nogueira, which makes sense because he barely used his right hand in rounds 2 and 3, aside from a few big overhand punches. Evans was just less aggressive overall after round 1.

In round 3 of Evans vs. Rampage, Rampage stuffed a take down from Evans and looked like he was going to finish Evans, but he just couldn't land much of his ground and pound.

wow Henderson is 42 already

On June 11 2013 09:11 sir_ wrote: wow Henderson is 42 already

43 in August.

He's been lucky not to get too many injuries throughout his career.

Bets I am going to make:

Rashad Evans + Roy Nelson +167
Rashad Evans by decision +115
Roy Nelson by KO/TKO -160
Pat Berry by KO/TKO +125
Ryan Jimmo + Yves Jabouin -124
Shields wins by decision +205

pff i was hoping Nelson would get Cormier next fight, black dude will demolish him and hopefully Dana White will get tired of him too
as for the main event .. meh 42yo dude vs 33yo dude cmon... they ll both retire before getting a chance to fight Jones

Off first glance I like Pat barry to lose

yikes jake sheilds doing prelims, what a tough sport

Hendo FTW, Rashad looked so freaking retarded vs lil Nog

theres not one bet that stands out to me besides maybe barry/jordan inside the distance like puertorican said. very tough card imo. dont know what im gonna do at this point, will listen to some podcasts and post my thoughts after but as of now i am not really liking anything

On June 11 2013 22:08 Daut wrote: theres not one bet that stands out to me besides maybe barry/jordan inside the distance like puertorican said. very tough card imo. dont know what im gonna do at this point, will listen to some podcasts and post my thoughts after but as of now i am not really liking anything

Gotta bet the props and parlay this event, just like last weeks Brazil card. With the Brazil card, it was easy to pick the winners, but their lines were too juiced. This time, we have juiced lines with 2-3 super hard fights to pick, the hardest being Evans/Henderson.

I'll post some of my bets on Friday to give you an idea of where I'm at. I'm just waiting for the best value on some of the lines.

As of now, the fighters I see winning are: Nelson, Jimmo, Davis, Pierson, Delorme, Maguire, Jabouin.

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UFC 161 - Roy Nelson (260) (TBA)
UFC 159 - Roy Nelson (258) (won)
TUF 16 Finale - Roy Nelson (252) (won)
UFC 146 - Roy Nelson (254) (won)
UFC 143 - Roy Nelson (246) (lost)
UFC 137 - Roy Nelson (252) (won)
UFC 130 - Roy Nelson (260) (lost)
UFC 117 - Roy Nelson (263) (lost)
UFC FN 21 - Roy Nelson (263) (won)
TUF 10 Finale - Roy Nelson (263) (won)

lol wasn't he on a mission to lose weight.

What drives someone like Roy Nelson to look as ugly as he possibly can? Is it just the highest level of not giving a fuck?

really gonna need alexis davis to win. ended up making some bets and paired alexis davis in a parlay with all the other fights so if she loses somehow i lose every bet

These are some of the prop bets I liked, and already bet on.

- Nelson ITD/won't go 3 rounds (4/5)
- Davis/Sexton won't go 3 rounds, and Davis ITD. (4/5)
- Barry/Jordan won't go 3 rounds (5/5)
- Krause/Stout fight goes 3 rounds/o2.5 rounds (4/5)
- Pierson/Roberton goes 3 rounds/o2.5 rounds (3.5/5)
- Delorme/Figueroa won't go 3 rounds. They have 3 decisions between the two of them, in 21 fights total. (4/5)
- Clarke/Maguire goes 3 rounds/o2.5 rounds (3/5)
- Jabouin/Pague o2.5 rounds/fight goes 3 rounds (3.5/5)

These are some bets I took a small stab at.

- Delorme Submission/ITD
- Krause ITD/Submission
- Robertson ITD/Submission
- Maguire ITD/Submission $5-$10

I think I'm pretty much good to go on all my bets for once, aside from live betting that is. I'll post my full list of picks tomorrow afternoon.

Edit: I haven't bet the Rashad/Hendo fight yet. Rashad looked amazing during the weigh-ins, the best he's looked since his return fight vs. Tito Ortiz. Hendo looked good too, about the same as usual. Aside from the weigh-ins, I'm just not sure how to bet this fight, so I'll probably just live bet it, if not skip it altogether. I did notice Hendo get up to +110 on 5dimes, so if he hits +115, I might just bet him for the fuck of it.

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Here's most of my bets for today. I have 45 or so Round-Robin bets that I didn't list, cuz it's a waste of space and they are long shots (if any hit, I'll post the complete list after the event). Also, I will be adding a few last minute single bets later on, I'm just waiting for the lines to go down right before the match starts; some of those bets include Pierson/Woodley/Maguire/Delorme. Lastly, I will be live betting the 9 non-Facebook matches.

p.s. Don't follow all my bets, as I'm using certain bets as hedges for my other singles and parlays, as well as betting certain bets that I see value in, even though I recently said I don't often bet for value.

Singles

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Parlays

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My picks for this event (already listed in the beginning of this thread)

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On June 14 2013 17:12 Stim_Abuser wrote: What drives someone like Roy Nelson to look as ugly as he possibly can? Is it just the highest level of not giving a fuck?

LOL .. ugly, stupid, terrible coach, never stops surprising me by being incredible gifted fighter...

Just noticed that Jordan has some sick prop lines for finishes in rounds 1/2/3. He's the only one left with nice lines like that, who actually has a shot to win. Barry's lines for the same props aren't as good.

Jordan wins in round 1 $2.00 to win $31.00
Jordan wins in round 2 $2.00 to win $38.50
Jordan wins in round 3 $2.00 to win $60.00

(Looks like those lines dropped in half or more after I posted the lines here.)

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Also, there's a lot of line movement at 5dimes, I'd suggest checking it out. Lines like Pierson, Delorme, Jordan, and Henderson have gotten better.

Prelims just started. I made some new single bets and parlays. The singles are below.

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