zoom25 overbet on river

Don't really have any reads on the particular player, since it was zoom and I don't use HUD atm.

So I called the flop c/r with my usual thinking that the instamincheckraise is weighted to nuts/(draw, not here)/sometimes air. (very basic thinking, ofc there will be the odd random pair in there)

On this board texture my best guess would be 30% nuts/virtual nuts, 50% air and maybe 20% lower pockets, and I wanted him to barrel off some more on turn and river (probably flawed thinking right there)

called the turn for the same reason, as I ususally don't see any reason to raise.

Now on the river I'm thinking
- overbet bluff (although I'm not sure how common that is at these stakes)
- max value either with nuts or with a lower pocket pair hoping from a hero call from A high
- when the betsize / potsize relation changes I think somehow his relative handstrength must have changed, so that would mean the good ol' Eight-X



Although the river seems to be most important, do not hesitate to criticise all of my play

Thoughts?

Submitted by : Luna_Bluffgood

PokerStars Zoom Hand #99619535687: Holdem No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2013/06/05 23:08:19 CET [2013/06/05 17:08:19 ET]
Table Hydra 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: crusher6 ($21.38 in chips)
Seat 2: Hakle007 ($41.89 in chips)
Seat 3: workingguy ($21.39 in chips)
Seat 4: Hero ($29.55 in chips)
Seat 5: VALUN77 ($39.57 in chips)
Seat 6: M@chy ($51.13 in chips)
Hakle007: posts small blind $0.10
workingguy: posts big blind $0.25

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
Hero: raises $0.62 to $0.87
VALUN77: folds
M@chy: folds
crusher6: folds
Hakle007: calls $0.77
workingguy: folds

Flop (Pot : $1.99)

   
Hakle007: checks
Hero: bets $1.50
Hakle007: raises $1.50 to $3
Hero: calls $1.50

Turn (Pot : $7.99)

   
Hakle007: bets $5
Hero: calls $5

River (Pot : $17.99)

   
Hakle007: bets $19.50

Not that many 2x hands in his range, is he really playing A2s from the SB vs UTG-r?

If we discard that then he can have 66 - other than that you beat everything else? (unless he is smart enough to play QQ-AA like this as well) Question is how many times he will play back like this or take a thin line w/ like TT. I probably call and play it like you did,.

no idea what dynamics zoom has specifically but i'd call vs random unknown.

I'd call it off and update the read on range for unknowns in this spot

On June 07 2013 03:31 eestwood wrote: I'd call it off and update the read on range for unknowns in this spot

that's something I do too, but seems like it's costing me a lot 8[

I need more explanation on that one. Everyone seems to think that it's a call. I think i'd fold here, unless I know that this opponent is throwing 3 street as bluff.

On June 05 2013 17:49 SpasticInk wrote: If we discard that then he can have 66 - other than that you beat everything else? (unless he is smart enough to play QQ-AA like this as well)

Now that we know that he bet big on 3 street, I find it hard to discard QQ-AA from his range. Plus we could add 22 and 88. Why not some crazy shit like A8s, A2s, 87s or 98s? Anything else playing like that should be a bluff.

But you've both posted so many comment I really feel like I'm thinking something wrong here.

On June 10 2013 00:08 Saint-Denis wrote: I need more explanation on that one. Everyone seems to think that it's a call. I think i'd fold here, unless I know that this opponent is throwing 3 street as bluff. Show nested quote + On June 05 2013 17:49 SpasticInk wrote: If we discard that then he can have 66 - other than that you beat everything else? (unless he is smart enough to play QQ-AA like this as well) Now that we know that he bet big on 3 street, I find it hard to discard QQ-AA from his range. Plus we could add 22 and 88. Why not some crazy shit like A8s, A2s, 87s or 98s? Anything else playing like that should be a bluff. But you've both posted so many comment I really feel like I'm thinking something wrong here.

First of all never think that many comments = competent poker player :D (I am the best example)

I agree with you that all hands like QQ-AA, 22, 88 and A2s are definitely in his range, but on the river with the overbet (while he only bet 2/3 on the turn) I think the range shifts away from hands like that, since his line is inconsistent. I don't know if I'm reading too much into that there, but I believe that it's more likely that they change their betsize, when their relative hand strength changed, which would make A8, 87 and 98 more likely. That being said one could also argue, that a bluff is less likely, because why would'nt he just barrel 2/3 pot or 3/4 pot again to bluff.

So I guess I don't know :D

If we assume that the change in bet size means a change in hand strength, then it's a clear fold.

Maybe I'm wrong but being more suspicious the more the bet is big seems like an easily exploitable strategy.

tbh i think this hand is as simple as "overpair vs likely fish on dry board, not folding", and more analysis isn't really that useful.

QQ-AA possible, sure maybe, but definitely discounted somewhat. if he's calling A2s or any other 2x from SB pre vs UTG open and no other callers he is bad/clicking buttons. if he's calling pre from SB with A8s/87s type stuff (which is usually bad in itself) and minraising flops like this with them (which is certifiably retarded), there's simply a limit to the amount of rationality we can attribute to his thought process.

it's true that just because he does x dumb thing pre or on flop doesn't mean he's shoving river with some nonsensical hand. and it's true in general that just because some players do bad stuff on whatever street doesn't mean it's correct to always pay them off even if you have close to the top of your range or whatever. but in my opinion this is a call vs an unknown given how the hand played out, and i think combinatorics are only marginally useful for analyzing this hand.

vs unknown i fold this river almost always.

wat if he's a fish that plays 92s? or some shit like that...YOU NEVER KNOW.

He should know you have at least A high since you called flop min c/r and turn bet. So, he's valuebetting something that can beat most of the pocket pairs or is making a sick bluff. I doubt the average player will overbet there with something like TT (assuming he will 3b QQ+ and its out of his range for the average player). So I have to put him on A2+ or air. Some players are afraid of firing a 3rd barrel knowing that if you called turn you will call the river. If x% of the field will bluff like that do you call there? I'll do the math later

vs a low stakes random i would 3bet the flop

I think not playing lower stakes without a HUD is a little silly, the player pools are so massive, just a quick 40 hand sample saying that villian is 50/10 or 9/5 makes a MASSIVE difference in how you can proceed or not in a hand

I think river is a pretty clear fold