AKs time to bluff?

I haven't played poker seriously for over 3 years but have some more time now and am trying to get back into it a little more. One thing I noticed is that I am folding a lot and losing a ton in non showdown hands. I took this one as an example and searched my database for similar hands. I found that in hands that played similarly, UTG would fold over 50% of the time to a flop shove. Even if he did call I would still have some pot equity (around 25%) which makes me think 3 bet shoving the flop a better play than folding. Do my estimates sound reasonable?

Merge $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Holdem Cash
5 players
BTN: $4.00 (100.0 bb)
Hero (SB): $4.24 (106.0 bb) overall (Hands: 4904 VPIP: 20 PFR: 16 AF: 3.7 A%: 38)
BB: $9.46 (236.5 bb)
UTG: $3.98 (99.5 bb) (Hands: 28 VPIP: 11 PFR: 11 AF: 6.0 A%: 75)
CO: $5.14 (128.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB K A
UTG raises to $0.14, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.46, BB folds, UTG calls $0.32

Flop: ($0.96) 3 2 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.64, UTG raises to $1.36

Applicable reads on UTG
[PF]open raises early {A8s}(1)

Unless you have a strong indication your opponent is playing back at you I don't think I would recommend shoving. I'm noob though.

you guys are both pretty tight pre and this is UTG vs SB. C/f flop might actually be your best bet.

3bet jamming in this particular spot is spewy imo. Make the 6 a 4 and its fine but you are drawing to 4 outs+bdfd very often when you jam here probably around 70-80%

so you are a mod and you dont even use LP hands converter? rly?

--- Nuked ---

Just fold lol

pretty standard fold once he raises this flop. you need more of a specific read of what he's raising with here to consider shoving

flatting pre is also a viable option. i'd also cbet a bit smaller on the flop: probably something like 0.48 to 0.54 to set up a 3 barrel

On March 15 2013 21:28 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: so you are a mod and you dont even use LP hands converter? rly?

On March 16 2013 03:31 TimDawg wrote: pretty standard fold once he raises this flop. you need more of a specific read of what he's raising with here to consider shoving flatting pre is also a viable option. i'd also cbet a bit smaller on the flop: probably something like 0.48 to 0.54 to set up a 3 barrel

+1

Also, at micro stakes you don't really need to bluff, although it can be profitable in certain spots and against certain opponents. These guys are just so bad.

I would reccomend checking what villans utg opening range is. From what I see he has a 11 pfr and probably a lot tighter UTG so I don't see the merits in 3bing AK here other then folding what we beat and only getting played back by better. I may understand a 3b if you he has a high call 3b where you believe he is capable of calling with his PP and dumping them away when facing cbets. However, When you get check raised on this flop you are not looking to good and I would muck my hand pretty easily.

On March 16 2013 00:47 Fujikura wrote: Just fold lol